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This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication 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If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. 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payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed","question":"Conditional on a federal statute enacted on or before June 30, 2027 repealing or delaying the 2025 reconciliation law's SNAP state cost-share provision, what will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026?","country":"US","unit":"percent","pointEstimate":10.3,"interval80":{"lower":9,"upper":11.7},"resolutionDate":"2027-06-30","resolutionSource":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of the cost-share pair resolves; the gap between the two arms (9.4 vs 10.3) is the forecasted effect of the policy on payment 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call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds","question":"Conditional on the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline (December 31, 2026) remaining in effect — no enacted statutory delay and no nationwide court stay as of March 31, 2027 — what will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period?","country":"US","unit":"minutes","pointEstimate":33,"interval80":{"lower":26,"upper":43},"resolutionDate":"2027-07-31","resolutionSource":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted and no nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked 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call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed","question":"Conditional on a federal statute or nationwide court stay, on or before March 31, 2027, delaying the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027, what will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period?","country":"US","unit":"minutes","pointEstimate":15,"interval80":{"lower":12,"upper":18},"resolutionDate":"2027-07-31","resolutionSource":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted or nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of this pair resolves; the gap between the arms (33 vs 15 minutes) is the forecasted hold-time cost of the policy 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the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027","question":"What is the probability that the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline (December 31, 2026) is in effect — no enacted statutory delay and no nationwide court stay — as of March 31, 2027?","country":"US","unit":"percent","pointEstimate":89,"interval80":{"lower":80,"upper":94},"resolutionDate":"2027-03-31","resolutionSource":"Federal statute and federal court orders of nationwide effect, via the federal bill tracker and docket records","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://www.kff.org/medicaid/medicaid-work-requirements-tracker-overview/","resolutionRule":"Resolves to 100 if, as of 2027-03-31, no federal statute has been enacted and no court order of nationwide effect is in force that delays the community-engagement compliance deadline of the 2025 reconciliation law beyond calendar 2027; resolves to 0 otherwise. State-specific good-faith extensions granted by the Secretary do not trigger resolution to 0. The event is machine-checkable against the federal bill tracker and, once the provision is encoded, the rules 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industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change","question":"What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the U.S. Industrial Production index be for May 2026, as reported in the first Federal Reserve G.17 release on 2026-06-15?","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","pointEstimate":0.1,"interval80":{"lower":-0.5,"upper":0.7},"resolutionDate":"2026-06-15","resolutionSource":"Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the total Industrial Production index seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for May 2026, as printed in the first G.17 release on 2026-06-15 at 9:15 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place. FRED series INDPRO (first vintage).","resolutionPolicy":"first_print","recordedAt":"2026-06-12T18:32:08Z","dataPointId":"us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05","distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"support":{"lower":-1.4,"upper":1.6},"points":[{"value":-1.4,"probability":0},{"value":-1.385,"probability":0.00166666666667},{"value":-1.37,"probability":0.00333333333333},{"value":-1.355,"probability":0.005},{"value":-1.34,"probability":0.00666666666667},{"value":-1.325,"probability":0.00833333333333},{"value":-1.31,"probability":0.01},{"value":-1.295,"probability":0.0116666666667},{"value":-1.28,"probability":0.0133333333333},{"value":-1.265,"probability":0.015},{"value":-1.25,"probability":0.0166666666667},{"value":-1.235,"probability":0.0183333333333},{"value":-1.22,"probability":0.02},{"value":-1.205,"probability":0.0216666666667},{"value":-1.19,"probability":0.0233333333333},{"value":-1.175,"probability":0.025},{"value":-1.16,"probability":0.0266666666667},{"value":-1.145,"probability":0.0283333333333},{"value":-1.13,"probability":0.03},{"value":-1.115,"probability":0.0316666666667},{"value":-1.1,"probability":0.0333333333333},{"value":-1.085,"probability":0.035},{"value":-1.07,"probability":0.0366666666667},{"value":-1.055,"probability":0.0383333333333},{"value":-1.04,"probability":0.04},{"value":-1.025,"probability":0.0416666666667},{"value":-1.01,"probability":0.0433333333333},{"value":-0.995,"probability":0.045},{"value":-0.98,"probability":0.0466666666667},{"value":-0.965,"probability":0.0483333333333},{"value":-0.95,"probability":0.05},{"value":-0.935,"probability":0.0516666666667},{"value":-0.92,"probability":0.0533333333333},{"value":-0.905,"probability":0.055},{"value":-0.89,"probability":0.0566666666667},{"value":-0.875,"probability":0.0583333333333},{"value":-0.86,"probability":0.06},{"value":-0.845,"probability":0.0616666666667},{"value":-0.83,"probability":0.0633333333333},{"value":-0.815,"probability":0.065},{"value":-0.8,"probability":0.0666666666667},{"value":-0.785,"probability":0.0683333333333},{"value":-0.77,"probability":0.07},{"value":-0.755,"probability":0.0716666666667},{"value":-0.74,"probability":0.0733333333333},{"value":-0.725,"probability":0.075},{"value":-0.71,"probability":0.0766666666667},{"value":-0.695,"probability":0.0783333333333},{"value":-0.68,"probability":0.08},{"value":-0.665,"probability":0.0816666666667},{"value":-0.65,"probability":0.0833333333333},{"value":-0.635,"probability":0.085},{"value":-0.62,"probability":0.0866666666667},{"value":-0.605,"probability":0.0883333333333},{"value":-0.59,"probability":0.09},{"value":-0.575,"probability":0.0916666666667},{"value":-0.56,"probability":0.0933333333333},{"value":-0.545,"probability":0.095},{"value":-0.53,"probability":0.0966666666667},{"value":-0.515,"probability":0.0983333333333},{"value":-0.5,"probability":0.1},{"value":-0.485,"probability":0.11},{"value":-0.47,"probability":0.12},{"value":-0.455,"probability":0.13},{"value":-0.44,"probability":0.14},{"value":-0.425,"probability":0.15},{"value":-0.41,"probability":0.16},{"value":-0.395,"probability":0.17},{"value":-0.38,"probability":0.18},{"value":-0.365,"probability":0.19},{"value":-0.35,"probability":0.2},{"value":-0.335,"probability":0.21},{"value":-0.32,"probability":0.22},{"value":-0.305,"probability":0.23},{"value":-0.29,"probability":0.24},{"value":-0.275,"probability":0.25},{"value":-0.26,"probability":0.26},{"value":-0.245,"probability":0.27},{"value":-0.23,"probability":0.28},{"value":-0.215,"probability":0.29},{"value":-0.2,"probability":0.3},{"value":-0.185,"probability":0.31},{"value":-0.17,"probability":0.32},{"value":-0.155,"probability":0.33},{"value":-0.14,"probability":0.34},{"value":-0.125,"probability":0.35},{"value":-0.11,"probability":0.36},{"value":-0.095,"probability":0.37},{"value":-0.08,"probability":0.38},{"value":-0.065,"probability":0.39},{"value":-0.05,"probability":0.4},{"value":-0.035,"probability":0.41},{"value":-0.02,"probability":0.42},{"value":-0.005,"probability":0.43},{"value":0.01,"probability":0.44},{"value":0.025,"probability":0.45},{"value":0.04,"probability":0.46},{"value":0.055,"probability":0.47},{"value":0.07,"probability":0.48},{"value":0.085,"probability":0.49},{"value":0.1,"probability":0.5},{"value":0.115,"probability":0.51},{"value":0.13,"probability":0.52},{"value":0.145,"probability":0.53},{"value":0.16,"probability":0.54},{"value":0.175,"probability":0.55},{"value":0.19,"probability":0.56},{"value":0.205,"probability":0.57},{"value":0.22,"probability":0.58},{"value":0.235,"probability":0.59},{"value":0.25,"probability":0.6},{"value":0.265,"probability":0.61},{"value":0.28,"probability":0.62},{"value":0.295,"probability":0.63},{"value":0.31,"probability":0.64},{"value":0.325,"probability":0.65},{"value":0.34,"probability":0.66},{"value":0.355,"probability":0.67},{"value":0.37,"probability":0.68},{"value":0.385,"probability":0.69},{"value":0.4,"probability":0.7},{"value":0.415,"probability":0.71},{"value"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Construction","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the total privately-owned housing starts for May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in millions (e.g. 1500 thousand -> 1.50 million), as printed in the 2026-06-16 8:30 AM ET New Residential Construction release (first/preliminary estimate). FRED series HOUST/1000.","resolutionPolicy":"first_print","recordedAt":"2026-06-15T10:20:00-04:00","dataPointId":"us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05","distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"support":{"lower":0.975,"upper":1.875},"points":[{"value":0.975,"probability":0},{"value":0.9795,"probability":0.00157894736842},{"value":0.984,"probability":0.00315789473684},{"value":0.9885,"probability":0.00473684210526},{"value":0.993,"probability":0.00631578947368},{"value":0.9975,"probability":0.00789473684211},{"value":1.002,"probability":0.00947368421053},{"value":1.0065,"probability":0.0110526315789},{"value":1.011,"probability":0.0126315789474},{"value":1.0155,"probability":0.0142105263158},{"value":1.02,"probability":0.0157894736842},{"value":1.0245,"probability":0.0173684210526},{"value":1.029,"probability":0.0189473684211},{"value":1.0335,"probability":0.0205263157895},{"value":1.038,"probability":0.0221052631579},{"value":1.0425,"probability":0.0236842105263},{"value":1.047,"probability":0.0252631578947},{"value":1.0515,"probability":0.0268421052632},{"value":1.056,"probability":0.0284210526316},{"value":1.0605,"probability":0.03},{"value":1.065,"probability":0.0315789473684},{"value":1.0695,"probability":0.0331578947368},{"value":1.074,"probability":0.0347368421053},{"value":1.0785,"probability":0.0363157894737},{"value":1.083,"probability":0.0378947368421},{"value":1.0875,"probability":0.0394736842105},{"value":1.092,"probability":0.0410526315789},{"value":1.0965,"probability":0.0426315789474},{"value":1.101,"probability":0.0442105263158},{"value":1.1055,"probability":0.0457894736842},{"value":1.11,"probability":0.0473684210526},{"value":1.1145,"probability":0.0489473684211},{"value":1.119,"probability":0.0505263157895},{"value":1.1235,"probability":0.0521052631579},{"value":1.128,"probability":0.0536842105263},{"value":1.1325,"probability":0.0552631578947},{"value":1.137,"probability":0.0568421052632},{"value":1.1415,"probability":0.0584210526316},{"value":1.146,"probability":0.06},{"value":1.1505,"probability":0.0615789473684},{"value":1.155,"probability":0.0631578947368},{"value":1.1595,"probability":0.0647368421053},{"value":1.164,"probability":0.0663157894737},{"value":1.1685,"probability":0.0678947368421},{"value":1.173,"probability":0.0694736842105},{"value":1.1775,"probability":0.0710526315789},{"value":1.182,"probability":0.0726315789474},{"value":1.1865,"probability":0.0742105263158},{"value":1.191,"probability":0.0757894736842},{"value":1.1955,"probability":0.0773684210526},{"value":1.2,"probability":0.0789473684211},{"value":1.2045,"probability":0.0805263157895},{"value":1.209,"probability":0.0821052631579},{"value":1.2135,"probability":0.0836842105263},{"value":1.218,"probability":0.0852631578947},{"value":1.2225,"probability":0.0868421052632},{"value":1.227,"probability":0.0884210526316},{"value":1.2315,"probability":0.09},{"value":1.236,"probability":0.0915789473684},{"value":1.2405,"probability":0.0931578947368},{"value":1.245,"probability":0.0947368421053},{"value":1.2495,"probability":0.0963157894737},{"value":1.254,"probability":0.0978947368421},{"value":1.2585,"probability":0.0994736842105},{"value":1.263,"probability":0.106315789474},{"value":1.2675,"probability":0.115789473684},{"value":1.272,"probability":0.125263157895},{"value":1.2765,"probability":0.134736842105},{"value":1.281,"probability":0.144210526316},{"value":1.2855,"probability":0.153684210526},{"value":1.29,"probability":0.163157894737},{"value":1.2945,"probability":0.172631578947},{"value":1.299,"probability":0.182105263158},{"value":1.3035,"probability":0.191578947368},{"value":1.308,"probability":0.201052631579},{"value":1.3125,"probability":0.210526315789},{"value":1.317,"probability":0.22},{"value":1.3215,"probability":0.229473684211},{"value":1.326,"probability":0.238947368421},{"value":1.3305,"probability":0.248421052632},{"value":1.335,"probability":0.257894736842},{"value":1.3395,"probability":0.267368421053},{"value":1.344,"probability":0.276842105263},{"value":1.3485,"probability":0.286315789474},{"value":1.353,"probability":0.295789473684},{"value":1.3575,"probability":0.305263157895},{"value":1.362,"probability":0.314736842105},{"value":1.3665,"probability":0.324210526316},{"value":1.371,"probability":0.333684210526},{"value":1.3755,"probability":0.343157894737},{"value":1.38,"probability":0.352631578947},{"value":1.3845,"probability":0.362105263158},{"value":1.389,"probability":0.371578947368},{"value":1.3935,"probability":0.381052631579},{"value":1.398,"probability":0.390526315789},{"value":1.4025,"probability":0.4},{"value":1.407,"probability":0.409473684211},{"value":1.4115,"probability":0.418947368421},{"value":1.416,"probability":0.428421052632},{"value":1.4205,"probability":0.437894736842},{"value":1.425,"probability":0.447368421053},{"value":1.4295,"probability":0.456842105263},{"value":1.434,"probability":0.466315789474},{"value":1.4385,"probability":0.475789473684},{"value":1.443,"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- housing packs","runDescription":"Pack-enabled run using permits, mortgage-rate, builder-sentiment, and preliminary-release checks.","packSet":{"packSetId":"pack_set.housing_starts_may_2026.v1","label":"May housing starts pack set","mode":"with_packs","packs":[{"packId":"base-rate-first","version":"0.1.0","label":"Base-rate first","kind":"method","summary":"Forces the run to state an outside-view base rate before applying current-release adjustments."},{"packId":"housing-activity-nowcast","version":"0.1.0","label":"Housing activity nowcast","kind":"data","summary":"Cross-checks starts, permits, mortgage rates, builder sentiment, and multifamily timing for housing release forecasts."},{"packId":"release-vintage-calibration","version":"0.1.0","label":"Release-vintage calibration","kind":"calibration","summary":"Calibrates uncertainty to first-print release behavior rather than revised historical series alone."}],"notes":"Housing starts pack set for starts, permits, mortgage-rate, and preliminary-release checks."}},{"kind":"prediction_recorded","forecastSlug":"uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","runId":"run.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z","specId":"spec.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","type":"data","title":"UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the ONS first report as the UK Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?","country":"UK","unit":"percent","pointEstimate":3,"interval80":{"lower":2.7,"upper":3.3},"resolutionDate":"2026-06-17","resolutionSource":"Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2026","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the first-published ONS CPIH (CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs) 12-month inflation rate for May 2026 in the Consumer price inflation, UK bulletin, headline table, rounded to one decimal place as published. Later revisions do not change the resolved value. 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federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)","question":"What will be the U.S. federal government's current-month budget deficit (or surplus) for June 2026 as published in the Monthly Treasury Statement, in USD billions, with deficits stated as positive?","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","pointEstimate":72,"interval80":{"lower":-35,"upper":210},"resolutionDate":"2026-07-13","resolutionSource":"U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement (Table 1)","resolutionSourceUrl":"https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/","resolutionRule":"Resolves to the June 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement Table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs. Release expected on the 8th workday of July 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child poverty rate, 2025","question":"What will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025","rule":"Resolves to the official SPM child poverty rate (children under 18) for calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. If Census publishes multiple SPM variants, this uses the main published SPM table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.official-poverty-rate-2025","specVersionId":"spec.official-poverty-rate-2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1261d5cf","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"official-poverty-rate-2025","title":"Official poverty rate, 2025","question":"What will the official U.S. poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025","rule":"Resolves to the official poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. This uses the official poverty measure, not the Supplemental Poverty Measure.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.official_poverty_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.median-household-income-2025","specVersionId":"spec.median-household-income-2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e6455e26","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"median-household-income-2025","title":"Median household income, 2025","question":"What will real median household income be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025","rule":"Resolves to the real median household income for calendar year 2025 in the Census Income in the United States report, expected in September 2026, expressed in 2025 dollars or the headline real-dollar basis used by Census.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.asec.median_household_income.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.spm-child-poverty-2027","specVersionId":"spec.spm-child-poverty-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:afdfaa3c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"spm-child-poverty-2027","title":"SPM child poverty rate, 2027","question":"What will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2027 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, SPM annual release","rule":"Resolves to the official SPM child poverty rate (children under 18) published in the Census Poverty in the United States report covering CY2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.unemployment-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-dec-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:fafa6d7f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"unemployment-dec-2026","title":"Unemployment rate, December 2026","question":"What will the seasonally-adjusted U.S. civilian unemployment rate be for December 2026 as published in the BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-09","source":"BLS Employment Situation (CES/CPS)","rule":"Resolves to the first-print seasonally-adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for December 2026, released on the first Friday of January 2027 (subject to revision; first print is the resolution value).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.lns14000000.2026-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","fed.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cpi-u-annual-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cpi-u-annual-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d7efa8b3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cpi-u-annual-2026","title":"CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026","question":"What will the annual average percent change in CPI-U for calendar year 2026 (vs. 2025 annual average) be, as published by BLS?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-15","source":"BLS CPI-U release","rule":"Resolves to the percent change in CPI-U annual average for 2026 over 2025 (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, annual average), first-published value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","fed.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.median-household-income-2026","specVersionId":"spec.median-household-income-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:69492253","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"median-household-income-2026","title":"Median household income, 2026","question":"What will the real (2026 dollars) median household income for the United States be in calendar year 2026, as published in the Census ASEC?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-09-15","source":"Census ASEC (Current Population Survey)","rule":"Resolves to the real median household income for 2026 as published in the Census income report, expressed in 2026 dollars.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.asec.median_household_income.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.irs-individual-income-tax-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.irs-individual-income-tax-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:64a466c4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"irs-individual-income-tax-fy2027","title":"Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027","question":"What will total federal individual income tax revenue be for fiscal year 2027 in nominal dollars, as published in the Monthly Treasury Statement?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (final September FY2027)","rule":"Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2027 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2027, in billions of nominal dollars.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.real-gdp-growth-2026","specVersionId":"spec.real-gdp-growth-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:96a4509d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"real-gdp-growth-2026","title":"Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4)","question":"What will real GDP growth be from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (year-over-year, fourth-quarter basis), as published by BEA?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-28","source":"BEA GDP advance estimate (Q4 2026)","rule":"Resolves to the Q4/Q4 real GDP growth rate for 2026 as published in the BEA Q4 2026 advance estimate (late January 2027).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","fed.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uninsured-rate-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uninsured-rate-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:429fdcb5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uninsured-rate-2026","title":"Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026","question":"What will the uninsured rate among the U.S. population under 65 be for calendar year 2026, as published in the Census ASEC?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-09-15","source":"Census ASEC health insurance report","rule":"Resolves to the uninsured rate (any point during the year) for the population under 65 as published in the Census ASEC health insurance coverage report covering CY2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.labor-force-participation-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.labor-force-participation-dec-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:dc560749","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"labor-force-participation-dec-2026","title":"Labor force participation rate, December 2026","question":"What will the seasonally-adjusted civilian labor force participation rate be for December 2026 as published in the BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-09","source":"BLS Employment Situation","rule":"Resolves to the first-print seasonally-adjusted civilian labor force participation rate for December 2026 (BLS series LNS11300000).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.lns11300000.2026-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-monthly-max-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-monthly-max-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3759c9d6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-monthly-max-ty2027","title":"CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027","question":"What will the maximum federal Child Tax Credit per qualifying child be in tax year 2027, on a monthly equivalent basis?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-04-15","source":"Internal Revenue Code §24 as enacted","rule":"Resolves to the maximum federal CTC per qualifying child in effect for TY2027, divided by 12. Resolution snapshot is taken as of the IRS Form 1040 instructions published for TY2027 returns (April 2028).","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-expansion-cost-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-expansion-cost-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:15810443","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-expansion-cost-ty2026","title":"Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026","question":"What will official scorers estimate as the federal budget cost of a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, relative to current law?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office","rule":"Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate, in billions of nominal dollars, for the tax-year 2026 federal budget effect of a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit scored against current law.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.calibration","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.api","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-current-law-outlays-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-current-law-outlays-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:605e6c35","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-current-law-outlays-ty2026","title":"CTC outlays under current law, TY2026","question":"What will federal Child Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026 under current law, in nominal dollars?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables","rule":"Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the CTC.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.calibration","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.eitc-outlays-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.eitc-outlays-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:136b132d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"eitc-outlays-ty2026","title":"EITC outlays, TY2026","question":"What will federal Earned Income Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables","rule":"Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the EITC.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.salt-40k-cap-revenue-cost-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.salt-40k-cap-revenue-cost-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5f8c1bd1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"salt-40k-cap-revenue-cost-ty2027","title":"Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027","question":"If the SALT deduction cap is set at $40,000 for joint filers in tax year 2027, what will the federal individual income tax revenue loss be relative to a $10,000 cap?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office","rule":"Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate of the federal individual-income-tax revenue loss, in billions of nominal dollars, from raising the TY2027 joint SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 under otherwise comparable law.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","jct.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.federal-minimum-wage-jan-2027","specVersionId":"spec.federal-minimum-wage-jan-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:695fbf26","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"federal-minimum-wage-jan-2027","title":"Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027","question":"What will the federal minimum wage under FLSA §6(a)(1) be on January 1, 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-01","source":"29 U.S.C. §206(a)(1) as enacted","rule":"Resolves to the cash wage value of the federal minimum wage on January 1, 2027 under the Fair Labor Standards Act, regardless of any tipped-credit or sub-minimum provisions.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","congress.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.standard-deduction-joint-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.standard-deduction-joint-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:32bed892","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"standard-deduction-joint-ty2027","title":"Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027","question":"What will the federal standard deduction for married couples filing jointly be in tax year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"IRS inflation-adjusted tax parameters","rule":"Resolves to the standard deduction for married couples filing jointly for TY2027 as published by the IRS in the official inflation-adjusted tax parameter release.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.top-marginal-income-tax-rate-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.top-marginal-income-tax-rate-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:23b42c79","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"top-marginal-income-tax-rate-ty2027","title":"Top individual income tax rate, TY2027","question":"What will the top federal individual income tax marginal rate be for tax year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"Internal Revenue Code and IRS tax tables","rule":"Resolves to the highest statutory federal individual income tax marginal rate applicable for TY2027, excluding surtaxes such as NIIT or Medicare taxes.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.salt-cap-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.salt-cap-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a7b10227","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"salt-cap-ty2027","title":"SALT deduction cap, TY2027","question":"What will the maximum federal state-and-local tax deduction (for joint filers) be in tax year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"Internal Revenue Code §164(b)(6)","rule":"Resolves to the cap on the deduction for state and local taxes under IRC §164(b)(6) applicable to joint filers in TY2027. If no cap is in force, resolves at the projected average itemizer SALT amount in the SOI distribution (functionally 'no cap').","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-max-allotment-family-4-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-max-allotment-family-4-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:002277dc","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-max-allotment-family-4-fy2027","title":"SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027","question":"What will the maximum monthly SNAP benefit for a household of 4 in the 48 contiguous states and DC be for fiscal year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-10-01","source":"USDA FNS","rule":"Resolves to the FY2027 maximum allotment for a 4-person household in the 48 contiguous states and DC, as published by USDA in the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment notice (typically August preceding the fiscal year).","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-benefit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-benefit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:031a9238","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-benefit-outlays-fy2027","title":"SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal SNAP benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"USDA FNS and Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to federal SNAP benefit outlays for FY2027, excluding administrative costs, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official USDA FNS or Treasury fiscal-year table that identifies SNAP benefits.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.benefit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.aca-premium-tax-credit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.aca-premium-tax-credit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cd85907e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"aca-premium-tax-credit-outlays-fy2027","title":"ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal ACA premium tax credit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Monthly Treasury Statement and CBO baseline tables","rule":"Resolves to federal outlays for refundable premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or CBO table that separately identifies the credit.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9c3597c1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027","title":"Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027","question":"What will total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment be in December 2027, as reported by CMS?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"CMS Medicaid and CHIP enrollment reports","rule":"Resolves to total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for December 2027 in the CMS monthly enrollment report, in millions of people, using the first report that includes all-state December data.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.spm-poverty-rate-2025","specVersionId":"spec.spm-poverty-rate-2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8515fac0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"spm-poverty-rate-2025","title":"SPM poverty rate, 2025","question":"What will the overall Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025","rule":"Resolves to the official Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025, as published in the Census Poverty in the United States report expected in September 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a937e69c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027","title":"Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Monthly Treasury Statement and Department of Labor ETA","rule":"Resolves to federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or Department of Labor fiscal-year table that reports UI benefits.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ssi-federal-payments-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ssi-federal-payments-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:11263571","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ssi-federal-payments-fy2027","title":"SSI federal payments, FY2027","question":"What will federal Supplemental Security Income benefit payments be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Social Security Administration and Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to federal SSI benefit payments for FY2027, excluding state supplements, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports SSI federal payments.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ssa.ssi.federal_payments.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","ssa.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:31998507","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027","title":"Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal Medicaid outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Monthly Treasury Statement and CMS financial reports","rule":"Resolves to federal Medicaid outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or CMS fiscal-year table that reports federal Medicaid payments.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid.federal_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-recipient-children-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-recipient-children-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5198cb71","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-recipient-children-ty2026","title":"Children receiving the CTC, TY2026","question":"How many children will be claimed for the federal Child Tax Credit in tax year 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income","rule":"Resolves to the number of qualifying children claimed for the federal Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in millions, using the first IRS Statistics of Income table that reports CTC child counts or the closest directly comparable official count.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:883aa35d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027","title":"Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal Housing Choice Voucher program outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"HUD budget execution reports and Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to federal tenant-based rental assistance outlays for the Housing Choice Voucher program for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official HUD or Treasury table that separately identifies the program.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"hud.hcv.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","hud.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6b9fa6da","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027","title":"Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027","question":"What will total federal payroll tax receipts be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement","rule":"Resolves to total federal social insurance and retirement receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","treasury.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e688f0a9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027","title":"Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Social Security Administration and Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to OASDI benefit payments for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","ssa.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:eb127998","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026","title":"Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026","question":"What will federal refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables","rule":"Resolves to refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays for TY2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS SOI or Treasury table that separately identifies the refundable AOTC amount.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:191f56ec","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","title":"WIC average monthly participation, FY2027","question":"What will average monthly participation in WIC be in fiscal year 2027, as reported by USDA FNS?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service WIC data tables","rule":"Resolves to average monthly WIC participation for FY2027, in millions of participants, using the first USDA FNS annual WIC participation and costs table that reports FY2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.average_monthly_participation.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27","specVersionId":"spec.national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cbd66d30","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27","title":"National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27","question":"What will average daily participation in the National School Lunch Program be in school year 2026-27?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service child nutrition data tables","rule":"Resolves to average daily participation in the National School Lunch Program for school year 2026-27, in millions of students, using the first USDA FNS annual child nutrition table that reports the school-year total.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.nslp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027","specVersionId":"spec.aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:76b43425","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027","title":"ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027","question":"How many Qualified Health Plans will be selected through ACA exchanges during the 2027 Open Enrollment Period?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-04-30","source":"CMS Health Insurance Exchanges Open Enrollment report","rule":"Resolves to total Qualified Health Plan selections across HealthCare.gov and state-based exchanges during the 2027 Open Enrollment Period, in millions, using the first final CMS Open Enrollment report for plan year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.aca.exchange_qhp_selections.oep_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:208253b2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027","title":"Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal Medicare benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-11-30","source":"Monthly Treasury Statement, CMS, or CBO baseline tables","rule":"Resolves to federal Medicare benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury, CMS, or CBO fiscal-year table that reports Medicare benefit payments.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicare.benefit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:da4251cb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027","title":"TANF federal outlays, FY2027","question":"What will federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"HHS ACF TANF financial data and Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to federal TANF outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official HHS ACF or Treasury table that reports federal TANF fiscal-year spending.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.tanf.federal_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ccdf-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:abaab584","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ccdf-outlays-fy2027","title":"Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027","question":"What will Child Care and Development Fund outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"HHS ACF CCDF expenditure data","rule":"Resolves to total Child Care and Development Fund expenditures for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official ACF-696-based HHS ACF expenditure data release for FY2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.ccdf.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d1d8b3fa","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027","title":"Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027","question":"What will federal estate and gift tax receipts be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement","rule":"Resolves to federal estate and gift tax receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.estate_gift_tax_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:33a21cc1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027","title":"EITC claimant returns, TY2027","question":"How many individual income tax returns will claim the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-12-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data","rule":"Resolves to the number of TY2027 individual income tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2027 individual returns.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1f867d15","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027","title":"Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027","question":"How much will the federal government collect in corporation income tax receipts during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement","rule":"Resolves to total corporation income tax receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.corporation_income_tax_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","treasury.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2c66cc25","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","title":"SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027","question":"How many people will participate in SNAP in an average month of fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS SNAP Data Tables","rule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP persons for FY2027, in millions, using the first USDA FNS national annual participation table that includes all months of fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.average_monthly_persons.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.pell-grant-recipients-ay2027","specVersionId":"spec.pell-grant-recipients-ay2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:59de7951","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"pell-grant-recipients-ay2027","title":"Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28","question":"How many students will receive a Federal Pell Grant during award year 2027-28?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-02-28","source":"U.S. Department of Education Pell Grant Program data","rule":"Resolves to unduplicated Federal Pell Grant recipients for award year 2027-28, in millions, using the first official Department of Education Pell Grant program data table or budget justification table with final award-year recipients.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ed.pell.recipients.award_year_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","education.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b0604fec","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027","title":"Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027","question":"How many Head Start and Early Head Start funded enrollment slots will be authorized for fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"ACF Office of Head Start Program Information Report","rule":"Resolves to funded enrollment for Head Start and Early Head Start in FY2027, in millions of slots, using the first ACF Office of Head Start Program Information Report or annual fact sheet covering fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.head_start.funded_enrollment.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1308cef2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027","title":"TANF average monthly families, FY2027","question":"How many families will receive TANF or SSP-MOE cash assistance in an average month of fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"ACF TANF caseload data","rule":"Resolves to the fiscal-year average number of families receiving TANF or Separate State Program Maintenance-of-Effort cash assistance in FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF TANF caseload table covering all FY2027 months.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e9c5ab0d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027","title":"CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027","question":"How many children will receive Child Care and Development Fund subsidized child care in an average month of fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-03-31","source":"ACF CCDF data tables","rule":"Resolves to the average monthly adjusted number of children served by CCDF in FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF-800/ACF-801 CCDF data table covering fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.ccdf.average_monthly_children_served.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.liheap-households-assisted-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.liheap-households-assisted-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e6671357","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"liheap-households-assisted-fy2027","title":"LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027","question":"How many households will receive Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program assistance during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-09-30","source":"ACF LIHEAP Household Report","rule":"Resolves to total households receiving at least one type of LIHEAP assistance for FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF LIHEAP Household Report or LIHEAP data warehouse release covering fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.liheap.households_assisted.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27","specVersionId":"spec.school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4096e583","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27","title":"School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27","question":"How many children will participate in the School Breakfast Program on an average school day during school year 2026-27?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS Child Nutrition Tables","rule":"Resolves to average daily School Breakfast Program participation for school year 2026-27, in millions, using USDA FNS participation data with summer months excluded where FNS publishes a school-year table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.sbp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ssi-recipients-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.ssi-recipients-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ed7b30f3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ssi-recipients-dec-2027","title":"SSI recipients, December 2027","question":"How many people will receive Supplemental Security Income in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-02-28","source":"SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot","rule":"Resolves to total SSI recipients in December 2027, in millions, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot or SSI Monthly Statistics release for December 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ssa.ssi.recipients.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","ssa.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6ae307f2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027","title":"SNAP average monthly households, FY2027","question":"How many households will participate in SNAP in an average month of fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS SNAP Data Tables","rule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP households for FY2027, in millions, using the first USDA FNS national annual participation table that includes all months of fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.average_monthly_households.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f26da44b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027","title":"Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027","question":"How many children will be enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-04-30","source":"CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data","rule":"Resolves to Medicaid child and CHIP enrollment for December 2027, in millions, using the first CMS monthly Medicaid and CHIP enrollment report or data.Medicaid.gov release that reports the child-enrollment series for that month.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:995f7f7d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027","title":"Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027","question":"How many households will be leased under the Housing Choice Voucher program in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"HUD Housing Choice Voucher Data Dashboard","rule":"Resolves to Housing Choice Voucher households leased for December 2027, in millions, using the HUD HCV Data Dashboard or the first official HUD utilization table that reports national leased households for that month.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"hud.hcv.households_leased.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","hud.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e1ecf0a3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027","title":"School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027","question":"How much will the federal government spend on the School Breakfast Program in fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS Child Nutrition Tables","rule":"Resolves to federal School Breakfast Program cost for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS child nutrition program table that reports fiscal-year federal cost.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.sbp.federal_cost.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0aa175c4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027","title":"Child support distributed collections, FY2027","question":"How much child support will state and tribal programs distribute during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"ACF Office of Child Support Services annual report","rule":"Resolves to total distributed child support collections for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first ACF Office of Child Support Services preliminary or annual report covering fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.ocss.distributed_collections.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.pell-grant-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.pell-grant-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:76b83e9b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"pell-grant-outlays-fy2027","title":"Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027","question":"How much will the federal government spend on Federal Pell Grants during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"U.S. Department of Education Federal Student Aid and budget data","rule":"Resolves to Federal Pell Grant program outlays or obligations for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Department of Education Federal Student Aid annual report, budget justification, or Pell Grant program data table that reports fiscal-year spending.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ed.pell.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","education.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.wic-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.wic-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9e79a11b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"wic-federal-outlays-fy2027","title":"WIC federal outlays, FY2027","question":"How much will the federal government spend on WIC during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS WIC program participation and costs data","rule":"Resolves to total federal WIC program cost for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS WIC participation and cost table that reports fiscal-year total cost.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.federal_cost.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.liheap-federal-funding-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.liheap-federal-funding-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:59f0fed0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"liheap-federal-funding-fy2027","title":"LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027","question":"How much federal funding will be made available for LIHEAP during fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"ACF Office of Community Services LIHEAP funding tables","rule":"Resolves to total federal LIHEAP funding made available for FY2027, including regular block grant and contingency or supplemental funding, in billions of nominal dollars, using ACF Office of Community Services funding tables or LIHEAP Clearinghouse funding history.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"acf.liheap.federal_funding.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:61f044d6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027","title":"OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027","question":"How many people will receive Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-02-28","source":"SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot","rule":"Resolves to total OASDI beneficiaries in current-payment status for December 2027, in millions, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot or comparable SSA monthly beneficiary data.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.beneficiaries.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","ssa.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6e18b4b9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","title":"Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026","question":"How many individual income tax returns will claim the federal child and dependent care credit for tax year 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data","rule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the federal child and dependent care credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income individual income tax table that reports this credit.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0661d7e3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","title":"Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026","question":"How many individual income tax returns will claim the federal premium tax credit for tax year 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data","rule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the premium tax credit or reconciling advance premium tax credits on Form 8962, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2026 individual returns.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:14f62b0f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","title":"Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026","question":"How many individual income tax returns will claim the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data","rule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2026 individual returns.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.additional_child_tax_credit_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:02c1d74c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026","title":"Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026","question":"How much will individual income tax filers deduct for charitable contributions on itemized returns for tax year 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data","rule":"Resolves to total charitable contributions deducted on TY2026 itemized individual income tax returns, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income Schedule A or itemized-deductions table covering TY2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.itemized_charitable_contributions.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:57f783de","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027","title":"Medicare total enrollment, December 2027","question":"How many people will be enrolled in Medicare in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment data","rule":"Resolves to total Medicare beneficiaries for December 2027, in millions, using the first CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment dataset or Medicare Enrollment Report that includes national December 2027 enrollment.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicare.total_beneficiaries.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:09ba5c73","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027","title":"Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027","question":"What will the average monthly Social Security retired-worker benefit be in December 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-02-28","source":"SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot","rule":"Resolves to the average monthly benefit for retired workers in current-payment status for December 2027, in nominal dollars, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.retired_worker_average_benefit.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","ssa.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7a29d6af","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027","title":"Refundable CTC amount, TY2027","question":"What will the maximum refundable portion of the federal Child Tax Credit be per qualifying child in tax year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"Internal Revenue Code section 24 and IRS instructions","rule":"Resolves to the maximum refundable federal Child Tax Credit amount per qualifying child for TY2027, using IRC section 24 and the first IRS Form 1040 instructions or inflation-adjusted tax parameter release that identifies the refundable amount.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:bd1834b2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027","title":"Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027","question":"What will the maximum federal Earned Income Tax Credit be for tax units with three or more qualifying children in tax year 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-10-31","source":"IRS inflation-adjusted tax parameters","rule":"Resolves to the maximum EITC for taxpayers with three or more qualifying children for TY2027, using the IRS annual inflation-adjusted tax parameter release or equivalent official IRS table.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["axiom.query","distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:495da33c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027","title":"SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027","question":"What will the average monthly SNAP benefit per person be in fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-03-31","source":"USDA FNS SNAP Data Tables","rule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP benefits per person for FY2027, in nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS national SNAP annual table that reports benefits per person for all months of fiscal year 2027.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.average_benefit_per_person.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7afc7eb4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027","title":"ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027","question":"What will the average monthly ACA premium tax credit subsidy per subsidized marketplace enrollee be in fiscal year 2027?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-06-30","source":"CMS marketplace and Treasury outlay tables","rule":"Resolves to average monthly premium tax credit subsidy per subsidized marketplace enrollee for FY2027, computed from official CMS enrollment and Treasury/CMS PTC outlay tables when both are available.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06","specVersionId":"spec.initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0fca76df","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06","title":"Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026","question":"How many seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims will the Department of Labor report for the week ending June 6, 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-11","source":"U.S. Department of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted initial claims count for the week ending June 6, 2026 in the Department of Labor weekly claims release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["consensus.lookup","distribution.validate","dol.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8fa27001","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026","title":"Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026","question":"How many jobs will be added to total nonfarm payroll employment in May 2026 in the first BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-05","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the BLS Employment Situation release. Benchmark revisions and later monthly revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","consensus.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b96d0def","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print","title":"Unemployment rate, May 2026","question":"What will the unemployment rate be for May 2026 in the first BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-05","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026. Later population-control or seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","consensus.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cpi-headline-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cpi-headline-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:85f4ae40","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cpi-headline-mom-may-2026","title":"Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in headline CPI-U be for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-10","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index first release","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U for May 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent_ensemble.combine","bls.lookup","clevelandfed.nowcast","distribution.validate","eia.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.retail-sales-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.retail-sales-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e5969ddc","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"retail-sales-mom-may-2026","title":"Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will the advance seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in U.S. retail and food services sales be for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first advance estimate of the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in total retail and food services sales for May 2026. Use the rounded headline value; if only levels are available, compute from Census adv44X72 seasonally adjusted levels in the same release and round to one decimal. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.core-pce-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.core-pce-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c6f499a6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"core-pce-mom-may-2026","title":"Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will the month-over-month percent change in the core PCE price index be for May 2026 in BEA's Personal Income and Outlays release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","rule":"Resolves to the first published month-over-month percent change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","bridge.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-participation-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-participation-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1893cf2b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-participation-april-2026","title":"SNAP participation, Apr 2026","question":"How many people will participate in SNAP on average in April 2026 according to USDA Food and Nutrition Service monthly data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-08-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service, SNAP national monthly data","rule":"Resolves to the April 2026 average monthly SNAP persons count in USDA FNS national program data. If USDA updates the monthly table, the first version available by August 31, 2026 governs.","policy":"fixed_vintage","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4d41b007","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026","title":"Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026","question":"How many people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in April 2026 according to CMS monthly enrollment data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data","rule":"Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for April 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS posts preliminary and updated versions, the first updated national file available by September 30, 2026 governs.","policy":"fixed_vintage","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c43f3884","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026","title":"Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will BLS first report as the May 2026 monthly percent change in average hourly earnings for all private employees?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-05","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release","rule":"Resolves to the first published percent change from April to May 2026 in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the BLS Employment Situation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.core-cpi-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.core-cpi-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:938f03fa","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"core-cpi-mom-may-2026","title":"Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will BLS first report as the May 2026 seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-10","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index first release","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy in the BLS CPI release. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent_ensemble.combine","bls.lookup","clevelandfed.nowcast","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.jolts-job-openings-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.jolts-job-openings-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b15880b7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"jolts-job-openings-may-2026","title":"JOLTS job openings, May 2026","question":"How many total nonfarm job openings will BLS first report for May 2026 in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted total nonfarm job openings estimate for May 2026 in the BLS JOLTS release. Later monthly revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ba5313ef","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027","title":"SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027","question":"What will the FY2027 maximum monthly SNAP allotment be for a four-person household in the 48 states and DC, resolving whether it exceeds $1,020?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP COLA tables","rule":"Resolves to the first USDA FNS FY2027 SNAP COLA table for maximum monthly allotments, using household size 4 in the 48 contiguous states and DC. If USDA later revises the table, the first posted FY2027 table governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027","specVersionId":"spec.hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8e5631d8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027","title":"HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027","question":"What will the 2027 HHS poverty guideline be for a four-person household in the 48 contiguous states and DC?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-31","source":"HHS ASPE poverty guidelines","rule":"Resolves to ASPE's first posted 2027 poverty guideline table for four-person households in the 48 contiguous states and DC. Later errata do not change the resolved value unless ASPE withdraws the first table before it takes effect.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","hhs.aspe.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a509f94f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027","title":"Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027","question":"What will the maximum Child Tax Credit per qualifying child be for tax year 2027, resolving whether it exceeds $2,250?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-10-31","source":"IRS annual tax inflation adjustments and IRC section 24","rule":"Resolves to the first official IRS tax year 2027 inflation-adjustment guidance for the IRC section 24 maximum Child Tax Credit per qualifying child. If Congress changes the statutory amount before the guidance takes effect, the first IRS guidance implementing that law governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-participation-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-participation-march-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0e2a42eb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-participation-march-2026","title":"SNAP participation, March 2026","question":"How many people will USDA FNS report participating in SNAP in March 2026 in the national monthly data tables?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP national data tables","rule":"Resolves to the national March 2026 SNAP persons count in the USDA FNS FY2026 National View Summary, using the first table update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"fixed_vintage","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.wic-total-participation-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.wic-total-participation-march-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c3d08cfb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"wic-total-participation-march-2026","title":"WIC total participation, March 2026","question":"How many total WIC participants will USDA FNS report for March 2026 in the national monthly program data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service WIC program data","rule":"Resolves to the national March 2026 WIC total participants value in USDA FNS monthly program data, using the first table update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"fixed_vintage","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a797b811","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026","title":"Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026","question":"How many people will CMS report enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP for March 2026 in preliminary monthly enrollment data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-31","source":"CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data","rule":"Resolves to CMS preliminary March 2026 total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for the 50 states and DC, using the first monthly enrollment update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"fixed_vintage","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.irs-total-refunds-october-2026","specVersionId":"spec.irs-total-refunds-october-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:11deb113","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"irs-total-refunds-october-2026","title":"IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026","question":"What total refund amount will IRS report in its first October 2026 filing-season statistics snapshot for current-year individual returns?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-10-31","source":"IRS Filing Season Statistics","rule":"Resolves to IRS Filing Season Statistics total amount refunded for current-year individual returns in the first October 2026 snapshot. If IRS publishes multiple October snapshots, the earliest October table governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:70cdeacb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","title":"UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as UK real GDP growth in April 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-12","source":"Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate","rule":"Resolves to the first published ONS monthly real GDP growth estimate for April 2026 in the GDP monthly estimate release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:38231c1b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","title":"UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as the UK Consumer Prices Index 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"Office for National Statistics, consumer price inflation","rule":"Resolves to the first published ONS CPI 12-month rate for May 2026 in the consumer price inflation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:de71cf01","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026","title":"UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over in February to April 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"Office for National Statistics, UK labour market overview","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket","rule":"Resolves to the first published ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for February to April 2026 in the UK Labour Market June 2026 release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0246d312","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026","title":"UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over in April to June 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-08-18","source":"Office for National Statistics, UK labour market overview","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for April to June 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f26868e2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026","title":"UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over in July to September 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-11-17","source":"Office for National Statistics, UK labour market overview","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for July to September 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d3e5d561","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","title":"UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over in October to December 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-02-16","source":"Office for National Statistics, UK labour market overview","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for October to December 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin expected in early 2027. The published one-decimal rate is the resolution value; later revisions do not change it.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","command.date","distribution.validate","ons.calendar","ons.history","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","thesis.specs"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:26827b88","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026","title":"UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026","question":"What will ONS and HMRC first report as the early estimate of seasonally adjusted UK payrolled employees for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information via ONS labour market release","rule":"Resolves to the first published early estimate of seasonally adjusted UK payrolled employees for May 2026 in the ONS/HMRC PAYE RTI release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.hmrc.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8d4ad19b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026","title":"Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month","question":"What will ONS first report as the monthly percent change in Great Britain retail sales volumes for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-19","source":"Office for National Statistics, Retail sales Great Britain","rule":"Resolves to the first published ONS monthly percent change in the quantity bought in all retailing for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b282f58c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026","title":"UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026","question":"What will ONS first report as UK public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks in May 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"gbp_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-19","source":"Office for National Statistics, Public sector finances time series J5II","rule":"Resolves to the first official ONS value for May 2026 in Public Sector Finances time series J5II, transformed as -J5II / 1000 so borrowing is positive in GBP billions. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc","specVersionId":"spec.uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:eeb391b7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc","title":"Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC","question":"What will Bank Rate be immediately after the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision published on June 18, 2026?","type":"policy","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee summary and minutes","rule":"Resolves to the Bank Rate stated in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and minutes published on June 18, 2026. If the Bank publishes a correction the same day before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","boe.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:20b31b2d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026","title":"Canada unemployment rate, May 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-05","source":"Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted Canada unemployment rate in the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-employment-change-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-employment-change-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8fdf7ac2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-employment-change-may-2026","title":"Canada employment change, May 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as the May 2026 monthly change in seasonally adjusted employment for Canada?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-05","source":"Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly change in seasonally adjusted total employment for Canada in the May 2026 Labour Force Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:29d3c159","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","title":"Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's all-items CPI 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-22","source":"Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index","rule":"Resolves to the first published all-items CPI 12-month change for Canada in the May 2026 Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions or table updates do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b99533d4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","title":"Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's real GDP by industry monthly growth rate for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"Statistics Canada GDP by industry","rule":"Resolves to the first official Statistics Canada real GDP by industry monthly percent change for April 2026. The May 29 advance estimate is treated as input, not the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc","specVersionId":"spec.canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1c67ee9b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc","title":"Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026","question":"What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be immediately after its June 10, 2026 interest rate announcement?","type":"policy","country":"CA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-10","source":"Bank of Canada interest rate announcement","rule":"Resolves to the target for the overnight rate stated in the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on June 10, 2026. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","bank_of_canada.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1effa524","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026","title":"Australia unemployment rate, May 2026","question":"What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"AU","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Labour Force, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["abs.lookup","agent.run","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-employment-change-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-employment-change-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1f613702","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-employment-change-may-2026","title":"Australia employment change, May 2026","question":"What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as Australia's May 2026 monthly change in seasonally adjusted employment?","type":"data","country":"AU","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly change in seasonally adjusted employment in Labour Force, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["abs.lookup","agent.run","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5450d813","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","title":"Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as Australia's all-groups CPI annual inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"AU","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-24","source":"Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index","rule":"Resolves to the first published all-groups annual CPI movement in Consumer Price Index, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["abs.lookup","agent.run","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f204b0d4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba","title":"RBA cash rate target, June 2026","question":"What will the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target be immediately after the monetary policy decision updated on June 16, 2026?","type":"policy","country":"AU","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-16","source":"Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target","rule":"Resolves to the RBA cash rate target shown in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target update on June 16, 2026. If the RBA posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","rba.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d9f857b3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026","title":"ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026","question":"What will the ECB deposit facility rate be immediately after the monetary policy decisions published on June 11, 2026?","type":"policy","country":"EA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-11","source":"European Central Bank monetary policy decisions","rule":"Resolves to the deposit facility rate stated in the ECB monetary policy decisions published on June 11, 2026. If the ECB posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","ecb.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:229ea17f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final","title":"Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final","question":"What will Eurostat first report as the final euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices","rule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first final all-items HICP annual inflation rate for the euro area for May 2026. The flash estimate is input context; later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:45c7c963","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash","title":"Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash","question":"What will Eurostat first estimate as the euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026 in the flash release?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-01","source":"Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices","rule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first flash estimate of the euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026. The later final HICP release does not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0d5cf718","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026","title":"Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026","question":"What will Eurostat first report as the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"Eurostat monthly unemployment","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted euro area unemployment rate for May 2026 in Eurostat's monthly unemployment release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:374f13a3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026","title":"Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026","question":"What will the Bank of Japan guideline for the uncollateralized overnight call rate be immediately after its June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?","type":"policy","country":"JP","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-16","source":"Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy","rule":"Resolves to the guideline for money market operations stated in the Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy released after the June 15-16, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","boj.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0fe10b73","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","title":"Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the national all-items CPI annual inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"JP","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-19","source":"Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index","rule":"Resolves to the first published national all-items CPI annual rate for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statjp.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim","specVersionId":"spec.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0d001ce1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim","title":"Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary","question":"What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the Ku-area of Tokyo preliminary all-items CPI annual inflation rate for June 2026?","type":"data","country":"JP","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-26","source":"Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index","rule":"Resolves to the first published Ku-area of Tokyo preliminary all-items CPI annual inflation rate for June 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statjp.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7c9b039b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026","title":"Japan unemployment rate, May 2026","question":"What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"JP","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"Statistics Bureau of Japan Labour Force Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Labour Force Survey basic tabulation. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.run","distribution.validate","mirror.history","official.calendar","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statjp.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3fbe0c96","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026","title":"US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026","question":"What will BLS first report as the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in the PPI final demand index for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-11","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index","rule":"Resolves to the first published BLS seasonally adjusted percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 for the PPI final demand index. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e9e8e158","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026","title":"US industrial production growth, May 2026","question":"What will the Federal Reserve first report as the monthly percent change in total U.S. industrial production for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-15","source":"Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17","sourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the Federal Reserve G.17 total industrial production index for May 2026. Later revisions and the autumn 2026 annual revision do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fed.g17.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-capacity-utilization-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-capacity-utilization-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:314d066f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-capacity-utilization-may-2026","title":"US capacity utilization, May 2026","question":"What will the Federal Reserve first report as total U.S. industry capacity utilization for May 2026, seasonally adjusted?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-15","source":"Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17","sourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for total industry capacity utilization in the Federal Reserve G.17 release, expressed as percent of capacity and seasonally adjusted. Later revisions and the autumn 2026 annual revision do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.ensemble","distribution.validate","fed.g17.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a259e532","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026","title":"US import price inflation, May 2026","question":"What will BLS first report as the monthly percent change in the U.S. all-import price index for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-16","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Import and Export Price Indexes","rule":"Resolves to the first published BLS monthly percent change in the all-import price index for May 2026. Later revisions within the three-month revision window do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-housing-starts-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-housing-starts-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:45000938","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-housing-starts-may-2026","title":"US housing starts, May 2026","question":"What will Census and HUD first report as privately owned housing starts in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-16","source":"U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Residential Construction","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted annual rate of privately owned housing starts for May 2026 in the New Residential Construction release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-total-business-inventories-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-total-business-inventories-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:72b4af42","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-total-business-inventories-april-2026","title":"US total business inventories, April 2026","question":"What will Census first report as the seasonally adjusted end-of-month level of U.S. total manufacturing and trade inventories for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales","rule":"Resolves to the first published preliminary April 2026 value for adjusted total business inventories in Census Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Table 1, expressed in billions of dollars. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b02ab9f7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","title":"US government social benefits, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as government social benefits to persons in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for government social benefits to persons in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 17, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8d4dd637","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-social-security-benefits-may-2026","title":"US Social Security benefits, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as Social Security government social benefits to persons in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Social Security in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 18, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-medicare-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-medicare-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:44c44671","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-medicare-benefits-may-2026","title":"US Medicare benefits, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as Medicare government social benefits to persons in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Medicare in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 19, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3357215f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026","title":"US Medicaid benefits, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as Medicaid government social benefits to persons in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Medicaid in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 20, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.ensemble","bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e1f19bb9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026","title":"US wages and salaries, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as wages and salaries in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for wages and salaries in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 3, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","bls.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ceb4a6e1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026","title":"US personal current taxes, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as personal current taxes in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for less personal current taxes in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 26, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["agent.ensemble","bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d54f1ee0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026","title":"US disposable personal income, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as disposable personal income in May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income","rule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for disposable personal income in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 27, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:be468a8d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026","title":"US PCE price index inflation, May 2026","question":"What will BEA first report as the monthly percent change in the PCE price index for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","rule":"Resolves to the first published BEA monthly percent change in the PCE price index for May 2026 in the Personal Income and Outlays release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate","specVersionId":"spec.us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0169e835","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate","title":"US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate","question":"What will BEA first report as real GDP growth in the third estimate for Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product","rule":"Resolves to the first published BEA third estimate of real GDP percent change for Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later annual-update or benchmark revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c7803bd0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-may-2026","title":"US federal monthly deficit, May 2026","question":"What will Treasury first report as the federal deficit or surplus for May 2026 in the Monthly Treasury Statement?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-10","source":"U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Monthly Treasury Statement","rule":"Resolves to the May 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","treasury.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:72247ba5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026","title":"Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8be78e59","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026","title":"Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d9f8b54c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026","title":"Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:04610bdf","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026","title":"Office and administrative support employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-production-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-production-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2f9fd2a1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-production-employment-may-2026","title":"Production occupation employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:479b57fe","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026","title":"Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026","question":"How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","bls.oews.lookup","bls.oews.source","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4cd7254f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS business and financial employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in business and financial operations occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Business and financial operations occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:535d16ee","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in computer and mathematical occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Computer and mathematical occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:af20cc28","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in healthcare support occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Healthcare support occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cb5c104f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in office and administrative support occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Office and administrative support occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-production-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-production-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a3a65057","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-production-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS production employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in production occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Production occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:df47bcbb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026","title":"CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026","question":"What will BLS first publish as June 2026 employed people in transportation and material moving occupations in CPS Table A-19?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Transportation and material moving occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.cps.table_a19.lookup","bls.release_schedule.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-business-financial-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-business-financial-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b533aa72","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-business-financial-employment-2034","title":"Business and financial occupation employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-computer-math-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-computer-math-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:97fcae92","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-computer-math-employment-2034","title":"Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8f3042bd","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034","title":"Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-office-admin-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-office-admin-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4a5b8994","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-office-admin-employment-2034","title":"Office and administrative support employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-production-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-production-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c97ee9f8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-production-employment-2034","title":"Production occupation employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0a0a1cfb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034","title":"Transportation and material moving employment, 2034","question":"What will BLS first publish as 2034 employment for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the National Employment Matrix?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2035-09-15","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projections-and-characteristics.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["automation_exposure.map","bls.employment_projections.lookup","brier.pack.apply","brier.target.check","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2dcc0843","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Business and financial median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:eefb674b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:84987456","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Healthcare support median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e3afbc84","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-production-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-production-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ad67d5bb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-production-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Production median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d1cfc4c1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026","title":"Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026","question":"What annual median wage will BLS first publish for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-05-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bls.oews.api","bls.oews.source","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","wage_pressure.decompose"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0649dda7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026","title":"Canada retail sales growth, April 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as the monthly change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-19","source":"Statistics Canada Retail Trade","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Retail trade release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d406afd9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026","title":"Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as the monthly change in Canadian wholesale sales for April 2026, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-15","source":"Statistics Canada Wholesale Trade","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted wholesale sales excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain in Statistics Canada's April 2026 Wholesale trade release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1e639eb3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026","title":"Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as the number of regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries in Canada for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"Statistics Canada Employment Insurance Statistics","rule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted number of regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries for Canada in Statistics Canada's April 2026 Employment Insurance release, expressed in thousands. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:547ad935","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026","title":"Canada building permit value growth, April 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as the monthly change in the seasonally adjusted total value of Canadian building permits for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-11","source":"Statistics Canada Building Permits","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the seasonally adjusted total value of Canadian building permits for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Building permits release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f6262f3f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026","title":"Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026","question":"What will Eurostat first report as the monthly change in euro area industrial production for April 2026?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-15","source":"Eurostat Industrial Production","rule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first estimate of the calendar and seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in total euro area industrial production for April 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5f7e4714","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026","title":"Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026","question":"What will Eurostat first report as the monthly change in euro area retail trade volume for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-06","source":"Eurostat Retail Trade","rule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in euro area retail trade volume for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0e38db64","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026","title":"Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026","question":"What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as the monthly change in seasonally adjusted total dwelling units approved for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"AU","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-01","source":"Australian Bureau of Statistics Building Approvals","rule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted total dwelling units approved for May 2026 in ABS Building Approvals, Australia. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["abs.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:20f21b09","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026","title":"Japan real household spending growth, May 2026","question":"What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households in May 2026?","type":"data","country":"JP","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-07","source":"Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey","rule":"Resolves to the first published real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statjp.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e48cd6a1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026","title":"Individual income tax refunds, FY2026","question":"What will total federal individual income tax refunds be in fiscal year 2026 as reported by the U.S. Treasury?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, September 2026","rule":"Resolves to total individual income tax refunds for fiscal year 2026 in the final Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2026. If Treasury revises the table after the initial final MTS release, the first final fiscal-year table governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","treasury.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025","specVersionId":"spec.net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:845a90b3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025","title":"Net PTC reconciliation amount, TY2025","question":"What will the net premium tax credit reconciliation amount be for tax year 2025 as estimated by IRS Statistics of Income?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income, Affordable Care Act individual income tax items","rule":"Resolves to the IRS SOI tax-year 2025 estimate for net premium tax credit reconciliation on individual income tax returns, defined as additional net PTC claimed minus excess advance PTC repaid. If IRS publishes separate line-item and ACA-statistics estimates, the ACA-statistics table governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.net_premium_tax_credit_reconciliation.ty2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.soi.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025","specVersionId":"spec.savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:611c9c5e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025","title":"Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025","question":"How many individual income tax returns will claim the Saver's Credit for tax year 2025 in IRS Statistics of Income data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-08-31","source":"IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax Returns line-item estimates","rule":"Resolves to the IRS SOI tax-year 2025 estimate of the number of returns claiming the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit. If IRS reports both preliminary and complete-report values, the complete-report line-item estimate governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","irs.soi.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9a44bb44","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026","title":"Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026","question":"How many people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in December 2026 according to CMS monthly enrollment data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-06-30","source":"CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data, December 2026","rule":"Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for December 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS publishes preliminary and updated files, the first updated national file posted by June 30, 2027 governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025","specVersionId":"spec.direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:587c385b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025","title":"Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025","question":"What share of people will have direct-purchase health insurance coverage in calendar year 2025 according to the Census health insurance report?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025","rule":"Resolves to the direct-purchase health insurance coverage rate for all people in the Census health insurance report covering calendar year 2025. The headline direct-purchase category governs, including marketplace and non-marketplace nongroup coverage.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027","specVersionId":"spec.marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:597d9972","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027","title":"Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027","question":"How many new consumers will select ACA Marketplace plans during the 2027 open enrollment period according to CMS?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-03-31","source":"CMS Marketplace Open Enrollment Period public use files for plan year 2027","rule":"Resolves to the CMS national count of new consumers selecting Marketplace plans during the 2027 open enrollment period. If CMS reports HealthCare.gov and state-based marketplace totals separately, the national total combining both governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law","specVersionId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9e8019ff","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law","title":"Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC","question":"Conditional on no materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for tax year 2026, what will the U.S. infant mortality rate be for calendar year 2026?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"per_1000_live_births","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-15","source":"CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System linked birth/infant death records","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/linked-birth.htm","rule":"Resolves to the final U.S. infant mortality rate for calendar year 2026, in infant deaths per 1,000 live births, from CDC/NCHS NVSS linked birth/infant death records, conditional on no materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for TY2026. If such a policy is in effect, this baseline scenario is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","nchs.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable","specVersionId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f1d67ddc","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable","title":"Infant mortality 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC","question":"Conditional on a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for tax year 2026, what will the U.S. infant mortality rate be for calendar year 2026?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"per_1000_live_births","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-12-15","source":"CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System linked birth/infant death records","sourceUrl":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/linked-birth.htm","rule":"Resolves to the final U.S. infant mortality rate for calendar year 2026, in infant deaths per 1,000 live births, from CDC/NCHS NVSS linked birth/infant death records, conditional on a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for TY2026. If the policy is not in effect, this scenario is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.ctc_3000_refundable.final","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","evidence.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e6681442","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026","title":"SNAP cumulative redemptions, FY2026","question":"What will total SNAP benefit redemptions be in fiscal year 2026 according to USDA Food and Nutrition Service program data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service, SNAP national level annual summary","rule":"Resolves to the fiscal year 2026 total SNAP benefit redemption amount in USDA FNS national-level annual summary data. If USDA reports issuance and redemption separately, the redemption amount governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.benefit_redemptions.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.wic-child-participation-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.wic-child-participation-fy2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b935ff37","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"wic-child-participation-fy2026","title":"WIC child participation, FY2026","question":"How many children will participate in WIC on average each month in fiscal year 2026 according to USDA FNS data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-01-31","source":"USDA Food and Nutrition Service, WIC program data by participant category","rule":"Resolves to the average monthly number of child participants in WIC during fiscal year 2026 in USDA FNS program data. Infant and pregnant/postpartum/breastfeeding participant categories are excluded.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.child_participation.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write","usda.fns.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e3f58910","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026","title":"CCDF payment per child, FY2026","question":"What will the average monthly CCDF subsidy payment per child served be in fiscal year 2026 according to ACF child care data?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_monthly","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-12-31","source":"HHS Administration for Children and Families, CCDF administrative data","rule":"Resolves to average monthly CCDF subsidy payments per child served in fiscal year 2026, computed from ACF CCDF administrative data as total subsidy payments divided by average monthly children served and months. If ACF publishes the metric directly, the direct metric governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"hhs.acf.ccdf.average_monthly_payment_per_child.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["acf.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025","specVersionId":"spec.snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:11dcfb4a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025","title":"SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released the FY 2024 rate on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around June 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026","specVersionId":"spec.ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9ef01fe3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026","title":"California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026","question":"What share of California Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to beneficiaries disenrolled for procedural reasons divided by total beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal, California, August 2026 reporting period, original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c, computed when CMS first publishes the row (expected roughly three to four months after the period).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:640bd55b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak","title":"Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Alaska's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Alaska's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-al","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-al.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d5c7e77b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-al","title":"Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Alabama's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Alabama's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d9f809c2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar","title":"Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Arkansas's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Arkansas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-az","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-az.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b38e1366","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-az","title":"Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Arizona's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Arizona's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:54810b30","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca","title":"California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will California's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to California's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-co","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-co.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:dd7ee2ed","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-co","title":"Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Colorado's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Colorado's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:046f2abf","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct","title":"Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Connecticut's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Connecticut's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e6e45e5b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc","title":"District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will District of Columbia's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-de","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-de.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:54212363","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-de","title":"Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Delaware's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Delaware's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:722c1ca9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl","title":"Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Florida's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Florida's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1de9f5e2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga","title":"Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Georgia's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Georgia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:061fcb08","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu","title":"Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Guam's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Guam's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8ad13433","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi","title":"Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Hawaii's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Hawaii's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b7546d7e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia","title":"Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Iowa's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Iowa's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-id","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-id.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b3dd6a51","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-id","title":"Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Idaho's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Idaho's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-il","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-il.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:dd9b53ff","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-il","title":"Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Illinois's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Illinois's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-in","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-in.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:db7e67c4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-in","title":"Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Indiana's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Indiana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0fec81c9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks","title":"Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Kansas's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Kansas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1c3bb674","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky","title":"Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Kentucky's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Kentucky's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-la","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-la.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a65b01a7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-la","title":"Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Louisiana's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Louisiana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0c8eb26a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma","title":"Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Massachusetts's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-md","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-md.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a4b9ea98","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-md","title":"Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Maryland's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Maryland's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-me","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-me.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6a85e382","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-me","title":"Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Maine's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Maine's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8c18578c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi","title":"Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Michigan's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Michigan's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:897a45ee","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn","title":"Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Minnesota's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Minnesota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c481744f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo","title":"Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Missouri's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Missouri's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:43400117","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms","title":"Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Mississippi's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Mississippi's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8cd57dfe","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt","title":"Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Montana's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Montana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:10b2f10e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc","title":"North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will North Carolina's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to North Carolina's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8fd4bd1d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd","title":"North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will North Dakota's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to North Dakota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:53c6a7ff","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne","title":"Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Nebraska's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Nebraska's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:04a09597","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh","title":"New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will New Hampshire's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2256c6b8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj","title":"New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will New Jersey's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Jersey's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:af72dc5f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm","title":"New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will New Mexico's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Mexico's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:34193e49","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv","title":"Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Nevada's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Nevada's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9ea1d897","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny","title":"New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will New York's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New York's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0c362029","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh","title":"Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Ohio's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Ohio's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b1af4088","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok","title":"Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Oklahoma's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-or","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-or.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:46ca1dfe","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-or","title":"Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Oregon's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Oregon's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:242df22e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa","title":"Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Pennsylvania's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c5e1fcbb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri","title":"Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Rhode Island's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:691b8070","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc","title":"South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will South Carolina's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to South Carolina's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:36766243","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd","title":"South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will South Dakota's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to South Dakota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:04b5dd28","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn","title":"Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Tennessee's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Tennessee's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5bf9e671","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx","title":"Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Texas's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Texas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c5346686","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut","title":"Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Utah's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Utah's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-va","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-va.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5b8e7a9d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-va","title":"Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Virginia's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Virginia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:68bc4841","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi","title":"Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Virgin Islands's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Virgin Islands's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:18b7da1b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt","title":"Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Vermont's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Vermont's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c25fbc34","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa","title":"Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Washington's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Washington's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:35ac6a5b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi","title":"Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Wisconsin's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1d581d74","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv","title":"West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will West Virginia's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to West Virginia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7b22558a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy","title":"Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025","question":"What will Wyoming's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Wyoming's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ak","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ak.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:34290b4e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ak","title":"Alaska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Alaska process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Alaska's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ak.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-al","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-al.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ce369226","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-al","title":"Alabama SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Alabama process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Alabama's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.al.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ar","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ar.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:55262a15","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ar","title":"Arkansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Arkansas process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Arkansas's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ar.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-az","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-az.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a6f8c501","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-az","title":"Arizona SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Arizona process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Arizona's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.az.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ca","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ca.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4f4ef523","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ca","title":"California SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will California process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to California's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ca.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-co","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-co.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:fee431ec","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-co","title":"Colorado SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Colorado process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Colorado's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.co.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ct","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ct.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3df690a6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ct","title":"Connecticut SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Connecticut process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Connecticut's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-dc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-dc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:be4e0e96","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-dc","title":"District of Columbia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will District of Columbia process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.dc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-de","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-de.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:81746afa","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-de","title":"Delaware SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Delaware process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Delaware's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.de.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-fl","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-fl.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b301b870","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-fl","title":"Florida SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Florida process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Florida's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.fl.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ga","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ga.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c98842e5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ga","title":"Georgia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Georgia process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Georgia's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ga.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-gu","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-gu.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8c13a113","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-gu","title":"Guam SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Guam process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Guam's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.gu.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-hi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-hi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5b135f16","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-hi","title":"Hawaii SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Hawaii process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Hawaii's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.hi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ia","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ia.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c9a52471","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ia","title":"Iowa SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Iowa process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Iowa's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ia.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-id","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-id.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b2c1079c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-id","title":"Idaho SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Idaho process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Idaho's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.id.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-il","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-il.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4ec44c12","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-il","title":"Illinois SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Illinois process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Illinois's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.il.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-in","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-in.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e58c4a0f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-in","title":"Indiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Indiana process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Indiana's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.in.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ks","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ks.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1a774370","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ks","title":"Kansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Kansas process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Kansas's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ks.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ky","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ky.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d45ac807","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ky","title":"Kentucky SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Kentucky process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Kentucky's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ky.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-la","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-la.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0378218a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-la","title":"Louisiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Louisiana process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Louisiana's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.la.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ma","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ma.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:fdebfe01","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ma","title":"Massachusetts SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Massachusetts process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ma.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-md","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-md.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:44c3e377","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-md","title":"Maryland SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Maryland process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Maryland's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.md.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-me","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-me.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c32e39c9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-me","title":"Maine SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Maine process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Maine's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.me.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9946d25f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-mi","title":"Michigan SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Michigan process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Michigan's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cace5011","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-mn","title":"Minnesota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Minnesota process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Minnesota's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mo","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mo.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cd3fcc2a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-mo","title":"Missouri SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Missouri process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Missouri's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mo.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ms","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ms.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:dca17012","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ms","title":"Mississippi SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Mississippi process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Mississippi's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ms.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-mt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:185d8271","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-mt","title":"Montana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Montana process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Montana's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b88f3fd9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nc","title":"North Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will North Carolina process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to North Carolina's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:046c1980","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nd","title":"North Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will North Dakota process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to North Dakota's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ne","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ne.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:208fd036","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ne","title":"Nebraska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Nebraska process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Nebraska's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ne.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d1197a6a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nh","title":"New Hampshire SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will New Hampshire process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nj","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nj.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:09580e4b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nj","title":"New Jersey SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will New Jersey process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Jersey's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nj.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nm","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nm.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6f8738ba","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nm","title":"New Mexico SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will New Mexico process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New Mexico's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nm.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-nv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5d1e5708","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-nv","title":"Nevada SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Nevada process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Nevada's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ny","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ny.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:78843b66","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ny","title":"New York SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will New York process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to New York's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ny.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-oh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-oh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3602615c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-oh","title":"Ohio SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Ohio process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Ohio's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.oh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ok","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ok.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d5bb647b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ok","title":"Oklahoma SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Oklahoma process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ok.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-or","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-or.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5b924c01","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-or","title":"Oregon SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Oregon process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Oregon's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.or.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-pa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-pa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e43d9ff1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-pa","title":"Pennsylvania SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Pennsylvania process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.pa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ri","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ri.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:ea31e4d6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ri","title":"Rhode Island SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Rhode Island process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ri.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-sc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-sc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d73c5cab","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-sc","title":"South Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will South Carolina process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to South Carolina's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-sd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-sd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:61947cfe","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-sd","title":"South Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will South Dakota process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to South Dakota's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-tn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-tn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4ef33283","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-tn","title":"Tennessee SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Tennessee process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Tennessee's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-tx","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-tx.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:306a3c04","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-tx","title":"Texas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Texas process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Texas's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tx.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ut","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ut.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:514236ed","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ut","title":"Utah SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Utah process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Utah's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ut.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-va","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-va.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a7b09848","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-va","title":"Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Virginia process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Virginia's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.va.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-vt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-vt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9b07834e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-vt","title":"Vermont SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Vermont process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Vermont's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.vt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:99530907","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wa","title":"Washington SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Washington process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Washington's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:714791ba","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wi","title":"Wisconsin SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Wisconsin process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:441a824f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wv","title":"West Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will West Virginia process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to West Virginia's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wy","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wy.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d666b0cd","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wy","title":"Wyoming SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025","question":"What share of SNAP applications will Wyoming process within federal timeliness standards in fiscal year 2025, per the FNS application processing timeliness table?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to Wyoming's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wy.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cd2d3a70","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak","title":"Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Alaska will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Alaska's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6b4b2ee6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al","title":"Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Alabama will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Alabama's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6227af01","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar","title":"Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Arkansas will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Arkansas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:33529b51","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az","title":"Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Arizona will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Arizona's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:bde006ed","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca","title":"California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in California will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to California's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:fbc9221e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co","title":"Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Colorado will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Colorado's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:cb451aa6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct","title":"Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Connecticut will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Connecticut's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:157ab0f2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc","title":"District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in District of Columbia will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c625dcf2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de","title":"Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Delaware will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Delaware's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:bf5738a2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl","title":"Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Florida will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Florida's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:72c90db3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga","title":"Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Georgia will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Georgia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8939b026","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi","title":"Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Hawaii will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Hawaii's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f41d2233","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia","title":"Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Iowa will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Iowa's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b82f00b8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id","title":"Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Idaho will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Idaho's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7e5a9112","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il","title":"Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Illinois will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Illinois's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a3cc32db","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in","title":"Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Indiana will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Indiana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:317d3a86","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks","title":"Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Kansas will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Kansas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:271a7565","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky","title":"Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Kentucky will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Kentucky's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b6742b22","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la","title":"Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Louisiana will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Louisiana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b403ae37","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma","title":"Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Massachusetts will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:52c6e9cb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md","title":"Maryland Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Maryland will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Maryland's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.md.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c22eaaff","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me","title":"Maine Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Maine will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Maine's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.me.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b90067f1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi","title":"Michigan Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Michigan will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Michigan's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:43870071","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn","title":"Minnesota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Minnesota will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Minnesota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7f439a0c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo","title":"Missouri Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Missouri will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Missouri's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mo.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:22ca5da8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms","title":"Mississippi Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Mississippi will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Mississippi's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ms.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:02e14861","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt","title":"Montana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Montana will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Montana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f0651891","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc","title":"North Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in North Carolina will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to North Carolina's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6e720362","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd","title":"North Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in North Dakota will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to North Dakota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5f8115ca","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne","title":"Nebraska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Nebraska will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Nebraska's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ne.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c498bb98","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh","title":"New Hampshire Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in New Hampshire will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:50d5904d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj","title":"New Jersey Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in New Jersey will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New Jersey's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nj.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:761fe3e6","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm","title":"New Mexico Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in New Mexico will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New Mexico's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nm.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:963aec0e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv","title":"Nevada Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Nevada will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Nevada's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a1253f0a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny","title":"New York Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in New York will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New York's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ny.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a83d0854","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh","title":"Ohio Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Ohio will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Ohio's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.oh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:619fe93d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok","title":"Oklahoma Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Oklahoma will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ok.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:79d605c1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or","title":"Oregon Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Oregon will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Oregon's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.or.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3bf96919","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa","title":"Pennsylvania Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Pennsylvania will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.pa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:be2b5222","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri","title":"Rhode Island Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Rhode Island will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ri.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0e0f3299","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc","title":"South Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in South Carolina will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to South Carolina's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3c9942a2","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd","title":"South Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in South Dakota will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to South Dakota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:22e5a135","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn","title":"Tennessee Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Tennessee will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Tennessee's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2d095d7e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx","title":"Texas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Texas will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Texas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tx.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:81caa32d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut","title":"Utah Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Utah will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Utah's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ut.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8eb16df0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va","title":"Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Virginia will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Virginia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.va.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8a7cb70c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt","title":"Vermont Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Vermont will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Vermont's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.vt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:800dbed5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa","title":"Washington Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Washington will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Washington's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3cbbcbd0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi","title":"Wisconsin Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Wisconsin will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:22a3387f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv","title":"West Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in West Virginia will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to West Virginia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e00d739b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy","title":"Wyoming Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026","question":"What share of completed Medicaid renewals in Wyoming will be processed on an ex parte basis in the August 2026 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Wyoming's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wy.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:edbfd5f7","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak","title":"Alaska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Alaska Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Alaska's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ak.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:05143841","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al","title":"Alabama Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Alabama Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Alabama's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.al.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4a21b874","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar","title":"Arkansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Arkansas Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Arkansas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ar.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:18ad1966","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az","title":"Arizona Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Arizona Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Arizona's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.az.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9d776291","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co","title":"Colorado Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Colorado Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Colorado's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.co.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:610544d9","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct","title":"Connecticut Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Connecticut Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Connecticut's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ct.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a554b61f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc","title":"District of Columbia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of District of Columbia Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.dc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6ccd06af","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de","title":"Delaware Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Delaware Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Delaware's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.de.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7e25585b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl","title":"Florida Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Florida Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Florida's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.fl.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:40368bbe","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga","title":"Georgia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Georgia Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Georgia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ga.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e5fed6e3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi","title":"Hawaii Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Hawaii Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Hawaii's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.hi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c14dd6ec","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia","title":"Iowa Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Iowa Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Iowa's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ia.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:37cdec53","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id","title":"Idaho Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Idaho Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Idaho's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.id.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:0ab86f53","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il","title":"Illinois Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Illinois Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Illinois's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.il.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:87fff9f8","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in","title":"Indiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Indiana Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Indiana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.in.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5a1fb381","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks","title":"Kansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Kansas Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Kansas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ks.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d303c53e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky","title":"Kentucky Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Kentucky Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Kentucky's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ky.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:941010cd","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la","title":"Louisiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Louisiana Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Louisiana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.la.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:83fc7c56","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma","title":"Massachusetts Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Massachusetts Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). 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Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.me.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:6a75333e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi","title":"Michigan Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Michigan Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Michigan's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:f5e12d82","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn","title":"Minnesota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Minnesota Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Minnesota's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a294f413","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo","title":"Missouri Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Missouri Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Missouri's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mo.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3cd7570d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms","title":"Mississippi Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Mississippi Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Mississippi's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ms.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1d4c8dae","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt","title":"Montana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Montana Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Montana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5044c29c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc","title":"North Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of North Carolina Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to North Carolina's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). 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Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:2d43109e","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj","title":"New Jersey Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of New Jersey Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New Jersey's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nj.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:76028e5f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm","title":"New Mexico Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of New Mexico Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New Mexico's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nm.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7dee6d5d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv","title":"Nevada Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Nevada Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Nevada's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b5776b5f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny","title":"New York Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of New York Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to New York's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ny.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:137c4ecd","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh","title":"Ohio Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Ohio Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Ohio's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). 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Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ok.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:490bf56c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or","title":"Oregon Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Oregon Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Oregon's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). 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Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.pa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:dbf95753","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri","title":"Rhode Island Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Rhode Island Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ri.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:023e12ae","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc","title":"South Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of South Carolina Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to South Carolina's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:88dc473b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd","title":"South Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of South Dakota Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to South Dakota's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:b67d3b70","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn","title":"Tennessee Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Tennessee Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Tennessee's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a1a3f36f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx","title":"Texas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Texas Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Texas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tx.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e63adab0","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut","title":"Utah Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Utah Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Utah's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ut.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:7e881f41","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va","title":"Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Virginia Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Virginia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.va.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:507063a5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt","title":"Vermont Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Vermont Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Vermont's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.vt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:3aad5b4a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa","title":"Washington Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Washington Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Washington's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:15f3a885","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi","title":"Wisconsin Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Wisconsin Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d07af37c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv","title":"West Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of West Virginia Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to West Virginia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:26c091de","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy","title":"Wyoming Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026","question":"What share of Wyoming Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to Wyoming's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wy.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025","specVersionId":"spec.snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d950fe63","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025","title":"SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025","question":"What share of the 53 SNAP jurisdictions will have FY 2025 payment error rates at or above the 6 percent threshold that drives state cost sharing under the 2025 reconciliation law?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-09-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025","rule":"Resolves to the count of jurisdictions with FY 2025 combined payment error rates at or above 6.0 percent in the official FNS release, divided by the 53 jurisdictions reported. The release is expected around mid-2026; if it has not been published by 2027-03-31, the cell resolves whenever it is.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:1846799f","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect","title":"SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect","question":"Conditional on the 2025 reconciliation law's SNAP state cost-share provision remaining in effect — no statutory repeal or delay enacted by June 30, 2027 — what will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026","rule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. The conditioning event is a policy state, checkable against the federal bill tracker.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:4d237fca","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed","title":"SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed","question":"Conditional on a federal statute enacted on or before June 30, 2027 repealing or delaying the 2025 reconciliation law's SNAP state cost-share provision, what will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-06-30","source":"USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026","rule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of the cost-share pair resolves; the gap between the two arms (9.4 vs 10.3) is the forecasted effect of the policy on payment accuracy.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fns.lookup","ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:631e1576","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","title":"Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds","question":"Conditional on the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline (December 31, 2026) remaining in effect — no enacted statutory delay and no nationwide court stay as of March 31, 2027 — what will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"minutes","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-07-31","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)","sourceUrl":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360","rule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted and no nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_holds","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","kff.lookup","litigation.lookup","macpac.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:bf7d49ad","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","title":"Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed","question":"Conditional on a federal statute or nationwide court stay, on or before March 31, 2027, delaying the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027, what will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"minutes","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-07-31","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)","sourceUrl":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360","rule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted or nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of this pair resolves; the gap between the arms (33 vs 15 minutes) is the forecasted hold-time cost of the policy state.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_delayed","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","kff.lookup","litigation.lookup","macpac.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e91f8463","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","title":"Probability the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027","question":"What is the probability that the 2025 reconciliation law's Medicaid community-engagement compliance deadline (December 31, 2026) is in effect — no enacted statutory delay and no nationwide court stay — as of March 31, 2027?","type":"policy","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-03-31","source":"Federal statute and federal court orders of nationwide effect, via the federal bill tracker and docket records","sourceUrl":"https://www.kff.org/medicaid/medicaid-work-requirements-tracker-overview/","rule":"Resolves to 100 if, as of 2027-03-31, no federal statute has been enacted and no court order of nationwide effect is in force that delays the community-engagement compliance deadline of the 2025 reconciliation law beyond calendar 2027; resolves to 0 otherwise. State-specific good-faith extensions granted by the Secretary do not trigger resolution to 0. The event is machine-checkable against the federal bill tracker and, once the provision is encoded, the rules corpus.","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","kff.lookup","litigation.lookup","macpac.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:c7a5f713","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027","title":"Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional)","question":"What will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility and enrollment dataset?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"minutes","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-07-31","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period. Unconditional: this cell resolves regardless of the policy state.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write","thesis.lookup"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026","specVersionId":"spec.ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:60f4621d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026","title":"California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80%","question":"Conditional on California's ex parte renewal share reaching at least 80 percent in the August 2026 reporting period, what will its procedural share of disenrollments be in that period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-12-15","source":"CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)","rule":"Resolves to California's procedural disenrollments divided by total disenrollments at renewal for the August 2026 reporting period (original submission row, CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c), conditional on the event 'California ex parte renewals divided by total completed renewals is at least 80.0 percent in the same row.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cms.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.industrial-production-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.industrial-production-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8d659941","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"industrial-production-mom-may-2026","title":"US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change","question":"What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the U.S. Industrial Production index be for May 2026, as reported in the first Federal Reserve G.17 release on 2026-06-15?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-15","source":"Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization","sourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/","rule":"Resolves to the total Industrial Production index seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for May 2026, as printed in the first G.17 release on 2026-06-15 at 9:15 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place. FRED series INDPRO (first vintage).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fed.calendar","fred.lookup","fred.stats","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.housing-starts-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.housing-starts-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d509c3a5","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"housing-starts-may-2026","title":"US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions)","question":"What will total U.S. privately-owned housing starts be for May 2026, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, expressed in millions of units, as reported in the first Census/HUD New Residential Construction release on 2026-06-16?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-16","source":"U.S. Census Bureau & HUD, New Residential Construction","sourceUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf","rule":"Resolves to the total privately-owned housing starts for May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in millions (e.g. 1500 thousand -> 1.50 million), as printed in the 2026-06-16 8:30 AM ET New Residential Construction release (first/preliminary estimate). FRED series HOUST/1000.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","census.calendar","distribution.validate","fred.lookup","fred.stats","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9ac336f3","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","title":"UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the ONS first report as the UK Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2026","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest","rule":"Resolves to the first-published ONS CPIH (CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs) 12-month inflation rate for May 2026 in the Consumer price inflation, UK bulletin, headline table, rounded to one decimal place as published. Later revisions do not change the resolved value. This forecast targets CPIH specifically, distinct from the all-items CPI measure.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["boe.lookup","distribution.validate","ons.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.fomc-rate-upper-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.fomc-rate-upper-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:eefeab5a","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"fomc-rate-upper-june-2026","title":"FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound","question":"What will the upper bound of the FOMC's federal funds target range be immediately following the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, as stated in the FOMC's June 17, 2026 monetary policy implementation note?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-17","source":"Federal Reserve Board / FOMC","sourceUrl":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm","rule":"Resolves to the upper limit of the target range for the federal funds rate as stated in the FOMC statement / Implementation Note issued at 2:00 PM ET on 2026-06-17, in percent (e.g. 3.75 if range is 3.50-3.75%). FRED series DFEDTARU reflects the same value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","fed.calendar","fred.lookup","market.fedwatch","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.boe-bank-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:20f13c3c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"boe-bank-rate-june-2026","title":"Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision","question":"What will the Bank of England Bank Rate be immediately after the Monetary Policy Committee decision announced on 18 June 2026?","type":"data","country":"UK","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, June 2026","sourceUrl":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate","rule":"Resolves to the Bank Rate level (percent) stated in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary published on 18 June 2026, immediately following the MPC vote. If the Bank issues a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["boe.lookup","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-13","specVersionId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-13.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:e8ae633d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-13","title":"US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands)","question":"What will seasonally adjusted advance initial unemployment insurance claims be for the week ending 2026-06-13, in thousands, as reported in the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release on 2026-06-18?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-18","source":"U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration","sourceUrl":"https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf","rule":"Resolves to the seasonally adjusted ADVANCE figure for initial claims for the week ending 2026-06-13, in thousands, as printed in the DOL UI Weekly Claims news release on 2026-06-18 at 8:30 AM ET. FRED series ICSA (advance vintage), value/1000.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","dol.calendar","fred.lookup","fred.stats","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:48e8976b","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","title":"Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the national core CPI (all items less fresh food) annual inflation rate for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"JP","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-19","source":"Statistics Bureau of Japan, Consumer Price Index, May 2026 (national)","sourceUrl":"https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581-z.html","rule":"Resolves to the first-published national 'all items less fresh food' (core) CPI year-over-year rate for the May 2026 reference month in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release, rounded to one decimal as published. This targets the ex-fresh-food core measure specifically, distinct from the all-items headline. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","estat.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:28eebccb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026","title":"Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026","question":"What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's all-items Consumer Price Index 12-month (year-over-year) change for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"CA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-22","source":"Statistics Canada, The Daily, Consumer Price Index, May 2026","sourceUrl":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260622/dq260622a-eng.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published all-items CPI 12-month percentage change for Canada (not seasonally adjusted) in the Statistics Canada The Daily release for the May 2026 reference month, rounded to one decimal as published. Later revisions or table updates do not change the resolved value. Note: the May 2026 CPI is the first release computed on updated basket weights (effective 15 June 2026).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","statcan.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:5d22f286","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026","title":"Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026","question":"What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as the all-groups Monthly CPI indicator annual (12-month) movement for May 2026?","type":"data","country":"AU","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-24","source":"Australian Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator, May 2026","sourceUrl":"https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release","rule":"Resolves to the first-published all-groups CPI annual (12-month) movement in the ABS Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator release for the May 2026 reference month, rounded to one decimal as published. Later revisions do not change the resolved value. This targets the all-groups headline monthly indicator (distinct from the trimmed-mean underlying measure).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["abs.lookup","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20","specVersionId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:a9b065d4","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-20","title":"US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands)","question":"What will seasonally adjusted advance initial unemployment insurance claims be for the week ending 2026-06-20, in thousands, as reported in the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release on 2026-06-25?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration","sourceUrl":"https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf","rule":"Resolves to the seasonally adjusted ADVANCE figure for initial claims for the week ending 2026-06-20, in thousands, as printed in the DOL UI Weekly Claims news release on 2026-06-25 at 8:30 AM ET. FRED series ICSA (advance vintage), value/1000.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","calendar.lookup","distribution.validate","dol.calendar","fred.lookup","fred.stats","mirror.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:8ffca286","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","title":"US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change","question":"What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the core (excluding food and energy) PCE price index be for May 2026, as reported in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release on 2026-06-25?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-25","source":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays","sourceUrl":"https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy","rule":"Resolves to the month-over-month percent change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy (core PCE), seasonally adjusted, for May 2026, as printed in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release on 2026-06-25 at 8:30 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place at BEA's reported precision (the headline table reports to 0.1; FRED PCEPILFE supports 0.01). FRED series PCEPILFE (first vintage).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["bea.calendar","brier.pack.apply","distribution.validate","fred.lookup","fred.stats","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.jolts-openings-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.jolts-openings-may-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:82273961","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"jolts-openings-may-2026","title":"JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print)","question":"What will be the first-published seasonally adjusted level of total nonfarm job openings for May 2026 in the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, in millions?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"millions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-06-30","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted level of total nonfarm job openings for May 2026 (in millions, rounded as BLS reports) stated in the BLS JOLTS news release scheduled for June 30, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","data.fetch","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:282de48d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","title":"Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026","question":"What will Eurostat first estimate as the euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026 in the flash release?","type":"data","country":"EA","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-01","source":"Eurostat, Euro indicators, euro area flash HICP estimate, June 2026","sourceUrl":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators","rule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first flash estimate of the euro area (all-items) HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026, published 1 July 2026, rounded to one decimal as released. The later final HICP figure does not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","eurostat.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:d90cb1a1","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","title":"Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print)","question":"What will be the first-published seasonally adjusted change in U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment for June 2026, in thousands, in the BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"thousands","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (Current Employment Statistics)","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June 2026 stated in the BLS Employment Situation news release scheduled for July 2, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","data.fetch","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.unemployment-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-rate-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9c95a212","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"unemployment-rate-june-2026","title":"Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print)","question":"What will be the first-published seasonally adjusted U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U-3) for June 2026, in percent, in the BLS Employment Situation release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-02","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (Current Population Survey)","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate (U-3) for June 2026 stated in the BLS Employment Situation news release scheduled for July 2, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","data.fetch","distribution.validate","history.mirror","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:93702270","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-june-2026","title":"U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)","question":"What will be the U.S. federal government's current-month budget deficit (or surplus) for June 2026 as published in the Monthly Treasury Statement, in USD billions, with deficits stated as positive?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"usd_billions","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-13","source":"U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement (Table 1)","sourceUrl":"https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/","rule":"Resolves to the June 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement Table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs. Release expected on the 8th workday of July (2026-07-13).","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["data.fetch","distribution.validate","history.lookup","news.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","public.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:62624706","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","title":"CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)","question":"What will be the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the all-items CPI-U for June 2026 in the BLS Consumer Price Index release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the all-items CPI-U for June 2026 stated in the BLS Consumer Price Index news release scheduled for July 14, 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","data.fetch","distribution.validate","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:9f5fde6c","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","title":"Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)","question":"What will be the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy (core) for June 2026 in the BLS Consumer Price Index release?","type":"data","country":"US","unit":"percent_growth","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2026-07-14","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index","sourceUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm","rule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy (core) for June 2026 stated in the BLS Consumer Price Index news release scheduled for July 14, 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["brier.pack.apply","data.fetch","distribution.validate","history.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","run_clock","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026","specVersionId":"spec.child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:caf884cb","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026","title":"Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026","question":"Conditional on a full TCJA extension package (CTC at $2,000, current refundability, current EITC) being enacted by June 30, 2026, what will the SPM child poverty rate be in 2028?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-09-15","source":"Census SPM annual release","rule":"Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for 2028, conditional on the event 'a TCJA extension package matching at least the House-passed framework on CTC and EITC is enacted by 2026-06-30.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable","specVersionId":"spec.child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:84f6504d","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable","title":"Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC","question":"Conditional on a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for tax year 2026, what will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2026?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2027-09-15","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, SPM annual release","rule":"Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for calendar year 2026, conditional on a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable CTC being in effect for TY2026. If the policy is not in effect, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["census.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed","specVersionId":"spec.iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:80183c98","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed","title":"Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed","question":"Conditional on the SALT deduction cap being repealed in full (no cap) for tax years 2026 and later, what will federal individual income tax revenue be in FY2028 (in billions of nominal dollars)?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"usd","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2028-10-20","source":"U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (final September FY2028)","rule":"Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2028 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2028, conditional on the SALT deduction cap under IRC §164(b)(6) being fully eliminated for TY2026 and later. If the cap is not fully eliminated, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target ref."],"publicTraceOnly":true},"qualityGates":["prediction_id_present","resolution_source_defined","distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","allowed_tools_declared","public_trace_only","ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available"]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_spec_v1","specId":"spec.uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire","specVersionId":"spec.uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire.v20260609","specHash":"static-hash-v1:319b0d54","publishedAt":"2026-06-09T00:00:00+02:00","predictionId":"uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire","title":"Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire","question":"Conditional on the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (ARPA/IRA expansion) expiring as scheduled at end of 2025 and not being restored through 2028, what will the uninsured rate (under 65) be in calendar year 2028?","type":"conditional","country":"US","unit":"percent","resolution":{"expectedAt":"2029-09-15","source":"Census ASEC health insurance report","rule":"Resolves to the uninsured rate among people under 65 as reported by the Census ASEC for calendar year 2028, conditional on no restoration of the enhanced ACA premium tax credits (above the original ACA-baseline subsidies) through 2028. If subsidies are restored at any point, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","policy":"first_print","targetFactRef":"census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger"},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"elicitation":"full_cdf","intervalMass":0.8},"tools":{"allowed":["cbo.lookup","distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","policyengine.simulate","thesis-log.write"],"required":["distribution.validate","policyengine-ledger.resolve","thesis-log.write"]},"agent":{"instructions":["Produce an audit-ready public forecast for the specified prediction.","Call only the allowed typed tools and record each tool call.","Return a full numeric_cdf_v1 distribution with exactly 201 points.","Write public reasoning only; do not expose hidden chain-of-thought.","Resolve only by linking a resolution event to the PolicyEngine Ledger target 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It would miss high if tariff pass-through or energy shocks dominate, and miss low if shelter disinflation accelerates.","Published forecast: point 2.6, 80% interval [2, 3.4]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:d7283c0e","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.cpi-u-annual-2026.2026-06-12T20-30-00Z.with-cpi-packs-jun-12.tool.1","tool":"brier.pack.apply","call":"brier.pack.apply({ packs: [\"base-rate-first@0.1.0\", \"cpi-component-decomposition@0.1.0\", \"tariff-pass-through@0.1.0\"], target: \"bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026\" })","result":"{ admitted: 3, mode: \"with_packs\", required_checks: [\"reference_class\", \"component_recombine\", \"right_tail_stress\"] 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unemployment rate, October to December 2026","Framing: the target is ONS Labour market statistics time series MGSX, Unemployment rate aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, percent, for October to December 2026, resolving on the first print and rounded to one decimal.","Base rate: among the last 24 fetched quarterly MGSX rates, mean 4.400, median 4.3, population std 0.464, sample std 0.474, 10th percentile 3.830, 90th percentile 5.000, range 3.7 to 5.3. Quarter-on-quarter changes had mean +0.039pp, std 0.295pp, 10th percentile -0.280pp, 90th percentile +0.300pp, range -0.4pp to +0.9pp.","Three-quarter-ahead changes over the fetched window had mean +0.038pp, sample std 0.507pp, 10th percentile -0.700pp, and 90th percentile +0.600pp. Point estimate = 0.50*persistence 5.0 + 0.25*last-4-quarter mean 4.85 + 0.25*last-24 mean 4.40 + inside-view 0.50pp for the 2025 upward drift and three-quarter horizon = 5.113, rounded to 5.1. The 80% interval starts from realized 3-quarter movement around the point: 5.1-0.7=4.4 and 5.1+0.6=5.7, then widens the upper tail by 0.2pp for LFS volatility, yielding [4.4, 5.9].","Counter-consideration: the outcome falls below 4.4 if labour demand re-accelerates and the 2025 unemployment rise unwinds quickly; it exceeds 5.9 if payroll weakness turns into a recessionary hiring stop or LFS volatility prints another sharp unemployment jump.","Published forecast: point 5.1, 80% interval [4.4, 5.9]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:763d2fdd","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.2026-06-16T10-20-43Z.thesis-analyst-live-2026-06-16.tool.2","tool":"command.date","call":"date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ","result":"runAt fetched this run: 2026-06-16T10:20:43Z.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:df42a8d9","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:9f7967f6","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.2026-06-16T10-20-43Z.thesis-analyst-live-2026-06-16.tool.3","tool":"ons.lookup","call":"Open ONS time series MGSX in LMS","result":"ONS page fetched this run reports release date 19 May 2026, next release 18 June 2026, Series ID MGSX, units %, and latest quarterly values 2025 Q3 5.0, 2025 Q4 5.2, 2026 Q1 5.0.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:3276142f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:adaf8c81","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.2026-06-16T10-20-43Z.thesis-analyst-live-2026-06-16.tool.4","tool":"ons.history","call":"Read recent quarterly MGSX table values from the ONS series page","result":"Last 24 quarterly rates fetched this run: 2020 Q2 4.1, 2020 Q3 5.0, 2020 Q4 5.3, 2021 Q1 4.9, 2021 Q2 4.7, 2021 Q3 4.4, 2021 Q4 4.2, 2022 Q1 3.8, 2022 Q2 3.8, 2022 Q3 3.7, 2022 Q4 3.9, 2023 Q1 4.0, 2023 Q2 4.2, 2023 Q3 4.1, 2023 Q4 3.9, 2024 Q1 4.3, 2024 Q2 4.2, 2024 Q3 4.3, 2024 Q4 4.4, 2025 Q1 4.5, 2025 Q2 4.7, 2025 Q3 5.0, 2025 Q4 5.2, 2026 Q1 5.0.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:78543d97","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:0c111792","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.2026-06-16T10-20-43Z.thesis-analyst-live-2026-06-16.tool.5","tool":"ons.calendar","call":"Open ONS release calendar and local catalog entry for this ONS release series","result":"ONS release calendar fetched this run showed 355 upcoming releases and is the official calendar source; the local catalog entry for ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print gives resolutionDate 2027-02-16. Shell DNS blocked direct filtered calendar fetch with curl exit 6.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:07b22f64","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:96d71a12","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.2026-06-16T10-20-43Z.thesis-analyst-live-2026-06-16.tool.6","tool":"thesis.specs","call":"Open https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json and search local catalog for slug","result":"Live specs URL check was attempted this run, but the environment returned no readable content and shell DNS failed with curl exit 6. Local catalog search found slug uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026 mapped to ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:9ad5241e","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:fd1455b7","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Latest ONS MGSX rate is 5.0 percent","Unemployment rose through 2025 before a Q1 2026 dip","Three-quarter historical moves are usually within -0.7 to +0.6pp","LFS volatility warrants a wider upper tail"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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ABS May 2026 employment change","The resolver is the first ABS Labour Force, Australia May 2026 release, specifically the seasonally adjusted monthly change in employed people. The unit here is thousands of people, matching the ABS headline convention.","Base-rate/reference class: the three most recent May changes were +79.6 thousand, +19.5 thousand, and -21.2 thousand, averaging about +26.0 thousand. Recent non-May momentum before April was also positive, with February and March gains around +28.9 thousand and +23.3 thousand.","Recent trend growth from ABS trend levels was +22.1 thousand in April; the 2023-2025 May average was +26.0 thousand; the latest seasonally adjusted print was -18.6 thousand. I weight underlying trend and May base rate more than April noise: about 0.45*22.1 + 0.35*26.0 + 0.20*(-18.6) = 15.3 thousand, rounded upward to 20 thousand because population growth and the trend series remain positive. An 80% interval of roughly +/-55 thousand gives -35 to +75 thousand.","Counter-consideration: April's unemployment-rate rise to 4.5% and the ABS note that May has two incoming rotation groups raise downside and survey-volatility risk, so I keep a wide interval that includes another negative employment change.","Published forecast: point 20, 80% interval [-35, 75]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:72699140","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.australia-employment-change-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-05-03Z.australia-employment-change-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-05-03z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the ABS Labour Force, Australia all-releases page for the scheduled May 2026 publication date.","result":"ABS lists Labour Force, Australia, May 2026 with release date 25/06/2026 at 11:30am 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4.5%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:9b11e617","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:31bf20be","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.australia-employment-change-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-05-03Z.australia-employment-change-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-05-03z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Read the ABS employment graph table on the April 2026 release for recent seasonally adjusted employed-people levels.","result":"ABS seasonally adjusted employed people were 14,664.2 thousand in Dec-25, 14,703.8 in Jan-26, 14,732.7 in Feb-26, 14,756.0 in Mar-26, and 14,737.4 in 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The old Monthly CPI Indicator ceased after September 2025, and the complete Monthly CPI is now the headline monthly CPI publication.","Base-rate/reference-class anchor: recent monthly complete-CPI annual readings sit mostly from 3.4% to 4.6%, while the May 2025 base month was unusually soft at -0.5% month over month. Replacing that base with even a modest positive May 2026 month tends to lift the annual rate from April's 4.2%.","Approximate annual-rate bridge: Apr 2026 over Apr 2025 is 1.042. If May 2026 monthly CPI rises about 0.2% and May 2025 was -0.5%, then May annual CPI is 1.042 * 1.002 / 0.995 - 1 = 0.0494, or 4.9% after one-decimal rounding. An 80% interval allowing roughly -0.5% to +0.8% May monthly outcomes maps to about 4.2% to 5.6%.","Counter-consideration: April already showed a fuel-driven pullback from March and seasonally adjusted all-groups CPI fell 0.1%, so a weak May fuel or travel print could keep the annual rate nearer the low 4s despite the favorable base effect.","Published forecast: point 4.9, 80% interval [4.2, 5.6]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:c52c71ee","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-02-48Z.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-02-48z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the ABS Consumer Price Index, Australia latest release page for April 2026.","result":"Fetched April 2026 reference period released 27/05/2026; next release for May 2026 is 24/06/2026; April annual CPI was 4.2%, March annual CPI was 4.6%, and April monthly 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area unemployment rate, May 2026 first print","The target is Eurostat's first official May 2026 euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, total sex and age 15-74, in percent. The April 2026 Eurostat release states the next unemployment release is on 2 July 2026, so that is the verified resolution date for the May 2026 first print.","Base rate/reference class: monthly euro area unemployment rates usually move slowly at one-decimal precision; the last five official points shown for the euro area are 6.3, 6.3, 6.4, 6.3, and 6.3, making 6.3 the modal and median recent print.","The April level is stable year-on-year and month-on-month, while the number of euro area unemployed fell by 84 thousand from March to April. That argues against forecasting a near-term jump in the rounded May rate.","Counter-consideration: Q1 GDP contraction of 0.2%, weaker retail trade, and higher May inflation at 3.2% could weaken demand and push unemployment up. These forces justify keeping upside mass at 6.4-6.5 rather than making the interval too narrow.","Use recent monthly persistence as the anchor: median(6.3, 6.3, 6.4, 6.3, 6.3) = 6.3. Apply no directional adjustment because the April unemployment headcount fell but macro growth weakened. Set an 80% interval of +/-0.2 percentage points around 6.3, giving 6.1 to 6.5.","Published forecast: point 6.3, 80% interval [6.1, 6.5]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:8ccaf01a","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-11-36Z.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-11-36z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened Eurostat euro-indicators unemployment release dated 1 June 2026 for April 2026.","result":"Fetched April 2026 euro area unemployment rate 6.3%, March 2026 6.3%, April 2025 6.3%, and EU April 2026 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Recent four-month range is 0.6 percentage points; an 80 percent interval of roughly plus or minus 0.8 around 3.5 gives 2.7 to 4.3.","Counter-consideration: headline all-items CPI can move more than core measures because fresh food, energy, and subsidy timing can shift the monthly YoY rate; this keeps the interval wider than the recent four-month range.","Published forecast: point 3.5, 80% interval [2.7, 4.3]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:7ffff6c3","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.2026-06-17T02-06-54Z.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-06-54z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the Statistics Bureau CPI landing page for the official CPI data and schedule entry points.","result":"Official CPI page lists Consumer Price Index results and links to Japan / Ku-area of Tokyo latest monthly results; page update notes include 23 January 2026 and the CPI area result entry.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c56f85c5","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:c12e37f1","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.2026-06-17T02-06-54Z.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-06-54z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the official CPI release schedule for the June 2026 Tokyo preliminary release date.","result":"Schedule shows Ku-area of Tokyo preliminary: survey month May 2026 release May 29 and survey month June 2026 release June 26; same schedule line shows Japan May release June 19.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:dd2c89ee","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:aef274ad","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.2026-06-17T02-06-54Z.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-06-54z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the e-Stat CPI database view for the current Tokyo table metadata and available time dimension.","result":"e-Stat dbview sid 0003427113 published date and time is 2026-05-29 08:30, with time entries including May 2026, Apr. 2026, Mar. 2026, Feb. 2026, and Jan. 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:4589a23f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:bb8c21fd","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.2026-06-17T02-06-54Z.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-06-54z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Read latest Tokyo all-items change-over-year history from the official CPI/e-Stat table for the target series.","result":"Fetched Tokyo all-items YoY history: May 2026 3.4 percent, Apr. 2026 3.5 percent, Mar. 2026 2.9 percent, Feb. 2026 2.9 percent.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:4e71a66f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:75f493b1","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["recent Tokyo headline inflation around mid-3 percent","food and rice price pressure still elevated","energy 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This target resolves on 2026-06-17 under a first-print rule, with an expected 11 days lag. The same series can also spawn next release, +3 months, inventory-sales ratio questions.","The available April component inputs imply a mechanical total near $2,725.1 billion: manufacturing inventories at $959.1 billion, advance wholesale inventories at $938.6 billion, and advance retail inventories at $827.3 billion. The interval mainly allows for wholesale and retail revisions before the MTIS first print.","Published forecast: point 2725, 80% interval [2716.5, 2732.5]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:2da8715d","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-total-business-inventories-april-2026.2026-06-06T23-38-51-02-00.tool.2","tool":"census.lookup","call":"census.lookup({ release: \"Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales\", series: \"total_business_inventories_level\", months: [\"2026-02\", \"2026-03\"], component_inputs: [\"M3 manufacturing\", \"Advance wholesale\", \"Advance retail\"] })","result":"{ feb_level_billions: 2686.3, mar_level_billions: 2709.7, mar_inventory_sales_ratio: 1.32, apr_m3_manufacturing_inventories_billions: 959.125, apr_advance_wholesale_inventories_billions: 938.640, apr_advance_retail_inventories_billions: 827.304, apr_release: '2026-06-17 10:00 ET' 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Use an 80 percent interval of roughly -20.0/+23.0 around the point to cover ordinary monthly noise and first-print uncertainty, giving 4295.0 to 4338.0.","Published forecast: point 4315, 80% interval [4295, 4338]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:0781fb3b","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-25-33Z.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-25-33z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BEA release schedule for the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release.","result":"BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 on June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the schedule page was last modified 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percent.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:67908409","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:5d5bdca7","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-25-33Z.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-25-33z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BEA Table 2.6 historical comparison workbook for recent government social benefits levels.","result":"Fetched recent government social benefits to persons levels: 2026-01=4283.6, 2026-02=4291.4, 2026-03=4302.1, 2026-04=4307.5 billions of dollars 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unemployment-benefit jump","April BEA release noted one-off farm-support effects elsewhere in personal income","May payrolls and unemployment suggest stable transfer-payment conditions"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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I still center on smooth growth because 2026 through April shows no comparable spike.","Published forecast: point 1650.5, 80% interval [1638, 1663]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:8b41110e","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-28-12Z.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-28-12z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BEA release schedule for Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026.","result":"BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 on June 25, 2026 at 8:30 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for BEA Medicaid government social benefits, May 2026 first print","The resolver is the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays print for May 2026, specifically the monthly SAAR Medicaid component of government social benefits to persons, not any later revised NIPA vintage.","Base-rate/reference class: the latest four month-to-month moves are +5.4, -0.8, -3.8, and -6.8 billion SAAR, so a one-month forecast should mostly anchor on the latest level with a single-digit monthly move rather than extrapolate a large regime shift.","Recent average monthly change from Dec 2025 to Apr 2026 is (1039.0 - 1045.0) / 4 = -1.5 billion. A slightly softer near-term adjustment from April gives 1039.0 - 1.5 = 1037.5. An 80% interval of roughly +/-19 billion around the point gives 1018.0 to 1056.0 after rounding to one decimal.","Counter-consideration: the April drop of 6.8 billion could mark continued post-enrollment or administrative-payment weakness, but January through February were nearly flat and this BEA component has enough smoothing that a further large May drop is less likely than a modest decline.","Published forecast: point 1037.5, 80% interval [1018, 1056]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:9b310d31","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-31-13Z.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-31-13z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BEA release schedule for the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release date.","result":"BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 on June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule shows 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The resolver is the first official BEA print in the Personal Income and Outlays release, not a later revised vintage.","Base-rate/reference-class step: the recent BEA monthly sequence rose from 13,148.0 in Dec 2025 to 13,311.1 in Apr 2026, a four-month gain of 163.1, or about 40.8 billion dollars per month. The last three one-month changes were +16.8, +47.2, and +32.4 billion dollars.","A wage-bill proxy for May adds employment growth of about 172,000 divided by roughly 159 million payroll jobs, or about 0.11 percent, to 0.3 percent hourly earnings growth and 0.0 percent hours growth. Applying about 0.41 percent to 13,311.1 gives roughly 13,365.4. I round the point to 13,365.0 and set an 80 percent interval of 13,325.0 to 13,405.0, wider than recent monthly noise because BEA mapping and first-print source inputs can differ from CES payroll measures.","Counter-consideration: BEA wages and salaries include government and other source-data adjustments, and the strong May payroll gain was concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, with financial activities down 22,000. That mix may produce a lower aggregate-dollar wage gain than the headline payroll and average-hourly-earnings proxy implies.","Published forecast: point 13365, 80% interval [13325, 13405]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:09c5a3fa","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-32-16Z.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-32-16z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BEA release schedule for Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026.","result":"BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 at 8:30 AM on June 25, 2026; the same schedule also lists June 2026 on July 30, 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for Canada regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries in April 2026","The target is the first Statistics Canada print for Canada, regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries, seasonally adjusted, April 2026. The resolving table is 14-10-0011-01, with The Daily notice/release as the release surface.","Base-rate/reference-class step: for a one-month-ahead EI beneficiary forecast, the best anchor is the latest official EI count plus recent monthly changes. The March count of 548000 followed +2300 in March and -8700 in February, while the broader labour market weakened in April rather than improved.","Implied February count is 548000 - 2300 = 545700; implied January count is 545700 + 8700 = 554400. I start at 548000 and add roughly 8000 for April because unemployment rose by 51000 and the EI count usually moves less than one-for-one and with administrative lag. Point = 548000 + 8000 = 556000. An 80% interval of 535000 to 580000 covers a decline back below February through a return near the November 2025 peak of 569000 plus upside noise.","Counter-consideration: the April LFS rise in unemployment partly reflected more people searching for work, not only layoffs, and EI eligibility is limited to insured job losses. That argues against translating the full 51000 unemployment increase into EI beneficiaries.","Published forecast: point 556, 80% interval [535, 580]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:4f256ae6","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026.2026-06-17T02-00-14Z.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-00-14z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Statistics Canada upcoming release schedule for June 15 to 26, 2026.","result":"The official schedule lists Employment Insurance, April 2026 on June 18, 2026, and says releases are published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; the schedule was produced June 12, 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for euro area retail trade volume in May 2026","Resolver is Eurostat's first official euro area print for calendar- and seasonally-adjusted retail trade volume, month-on-month, for May 2026. The target is the first published one-decimal percentage growth rate, not a later revised database value.","Base-rate/reference-class step: euro area retail trade month-on-month growth is usually centered near zero, with monthly prints commonly within roughly plus or minus 1 percentage point. The four recent observations average about +0.225%, but April's negative print lowers near-term momentum.","Recent mean = (-0.4 + 0.8 + 0.2 + 0.3) / 4 = +0.225%. I shrink this toward a zero-growth base rate and round to Eurostat's one-decimal reporting, giving a point forecast of +0.1%. A practical 80% interval around noisy retail m/m prints is about -0.9 to +0.8 percentage point around the point, rounded to [-0.8%, +0.9%].","Counter-consideration: April's -0.4% could reverse if fuel and non-food categories normalize, but weak confidence and modest real-income momentum argue against treating the March +0.8% jump as persistent.","Published forecast: point 0.1, 80% interval [-0.8, 0.9]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:54f066b9","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-13-28Z.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-13-28z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Eurostat euro-indicators release calendar/news surface for the retail trade May 2026 publication date.","result":"Eurostat release calendar places the May 2026 retail trade release on 2026-07-06; Eurostat euro-indicator releases are published at 11:00 CET and reported to 1 decimal percentage point.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:8cd06e5e","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:a66dd334","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-13-28Z.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-13-28z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Eurostat retail trade data/release context for the latest euro area month-on-month volume figure.","result":"Latest fetched first-print context: April 2026 euro area retail trade volume was -0.4% month on month; March 2026 was revised/reported at +0.8% month on 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The interval covers QC sampling noise, arbitration, and caseload shifts.","Published forecast: point 6.5, 80% interval [5.2, 7.8]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:b3d39075","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.snap-error-rate-fy2025-la.2026-06-08T00-00-00-02-00.tool.2","tool":"fns.lookup","call":"fns.lookup({ state: \"LA\", series: \"payment_error_rate\", years: [\"fy2023\", \"fy2024\"] })","result":"{ fy2023: 6.65, fy2024: 6.62 }","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:2f0fb28c","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:d6bc1493","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["OBBBA ties future state cost share to error rates, raising state stakes","State QC staffing and corrective action plans","Caseload churn and eligibility policy volatility","QC arbitration affecting first-print 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Under the 2025 reconciliation law, future state cost sharing keys off payment error rates, so every state QC office now has direct budget exposure to this number.","Damped trend: 14.10 + 0.25 x (4.24) - 0.15 national-improvement drift = 15.0. Interval width scales with the state's year-over-year volatility.","Forecast","Persistence dominates one-year state error rates, with partial continuation of the recent trend and modest downward pressure from cost-share incentives. 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Under the 2025 reconciliation law, future state cost sharing keys off payment error rates, so every state QC office now has direct budget exposure to this number.","Damped trend: 14.61 + 0.25 x (0.21) - 0.15 national-improvement drift = 14.5. Interval width scales with the state's year-over-year volatility.","Forecast","Persistence dominates one-year state error rates, with partial continuation of the recent trend and modest downward pressure from cost-share incentives. 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most felt delivery metric","Minutes on hold is the time tax at its most direct. I rebuild this forecast from the primary CMS series rather than asserting it: the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait already tripled from 7.3 minutes in May 2025 to a 25.4-minute peak in January 2026 (11.9M calls), settling at 24.0 in February 2026 — the latest period CMS has published. March 2027 is the first full quarter after the December 31, 2026 community-engagement compliance deadline, so the question is how much an implementation pulse adds on top of an already-stressed baseline, net of staffing response.","Reference class — Arkansas 2018 and the unwinding, quantified: Arkansas was the only prior real-world Medicaid work requirement at scale. Sommers et al. (NEJM 2019, telephone survey n=5,955) found 33% of the target population 'had not heard anything' about the requirement, worse among the less educated; ~18,000 lost coverage in months before a court halted it — the confusion-driven call channel. The 2023–24 unwinding is the volume analogue: a system-wide eligibility-rule shock added ~3.9M calls/month at peak and pushed 14 states above 30-minute waits. The work requirement layers a new verification touchpoint on top of the renewal baseline, with Arkansas-style confusion amplifying calls per touchpoint.","Δcalls decomposition for March 2027 (HOLDS): extra calls ≈ (subject pop) × (share with an establishment touchpoint hitting March) × (incremental calls per touched person). Subject = 18.5M (CBO). March-touch share = 0.10–0.22 (Jan–Mar rollout, March is one of ~three pulse months); calls per touched person = 0.8–2.0 (anchored above the unwinding's 1.8 per action-required event because the policy is novel and 33% are unaware). Central: 18.5 × 0.15 × 1.3 ≈ 3.6M extra calls in March — deliberately matched to the unwinding's +3.9M peak increment, the right magnitude for a nationwide eligibility shock. Range 1.5M (low) to ~6M (severe). Added to a March renewal baseline of 9.5–11.5M (anchored to Jan-26 11.9M / Feb-26 10.0M) gives a HOLDS call volume of ~11–17M, centered ~14M.","calls→wait fit + offset. I fit the 18-month volume-weighted CMS series three ways: linear wait = −12.08 + 3.03·V(M) (corr 0.82); quadratic 7.06 − 1.37·V + 0.246·V² (R² 0.69); and an M/M/1-flavored queue wait = 18.53·ρ/(1−ρ) with capacity 20.5M/mo (R² 0.69). They agree within ~1 min at 10–12M and diverge above 13M where the convex fits bend up (queueing saturation). A Monte Carlo over the parameter ranges (triangular extra-calls mode 3.6M; staffing offset U(−6,0) anchored to the unwinding catch-up from a 13-min peak) gives central volume ~14.3M → mean-of-fits ~34 min before offset, with an 80% wait interval of [26, 43]. Staffing offset central −3 min pulls the point to ~33.","Counter-consideration — what breaks this each way. Downward: the rollout is pre-announced (unlike the chaotic unwinding), states have run stressed call centers since 2025, and the IFR pushes data-matching/ex-parte verification that could deflect calls — a strong staffing/automation response could hold March near the low 20s. Also, if early-2027 implementation is partial (good-faith state extensions, phased cohorts), the pulse spreads thin. Upward: the queue fit warns that past ~14–15M calls the wait curve is explosively convex — a heavier pulse plus thin staffing could blow past 43 minutes, and Arkansas's 33% awareness gap argues calls-per-touch could exceed my central. The interval is right-skewed for exactly this reason.","Forecast","Modal path ~33 minutes: the February-2026 level (24 min) plus an implementation pulse, partly absorbed by staffing. At roughly 12–14M calls a month, every additional minute of average wait is about 200,000–230,000 person-hours of waiting per month. The gap to the delayed arm below is the published, falsifiable forecast of the policy state's cost in hold time."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:92e778b1","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.2","tool":"cms.lookup","call":"cms.lookup({ dataset: \"6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360\", series: \"avg_call_center_wait_minutes_volume_weighted\", method: \"volume_weighted_national, best-submission-per-jurisdiction\", periods: \"2024-09..2026-02\" })","result":"Computed from the datastore API (10,710 rows; latest period = 202602). Volume-weighted national wait by month: 2025-05 7.26 (6.76M calls); 2025-09 14.99 (8.48M); 2025-12 16.42 (8.28M); 2026-01 25.37 (11.94M); 2026-02 24.01 (9.96M). Volume-weighted abandonment peaked with wait at 20.4% in 2026-01. My reproduction matches the published series (7.3/15.0/16.4/24.0) to one decimal, confirming the resolution method.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c04521c2","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:c889a952","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.3","tool":"kff.lookup","call":"kff.lookup({ topic: \"2025 reconciliation community engagement requirement\", fields: [\"subject_population\", \"verification_cadence\", \"deadline\"] })","result":"CBO: 18.5M people subject to the requirement each year. Verification at application and at renewal every 6 months (states may verify more frequently); look-back of 1–3 consecutive months. Effective January 1, 2027; compliance deadline December 31, 2026. CMS interim final rule issued June 3, 2026 (80 hrs/month), projecting a 2.3M enrollment reduction in FY2027 rising to 3.1–3.3M later.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:40dfbd1a","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:2e31544b","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.4","tool":"litigation.lookup","call":"litigation.lookup({ topic: \"community engagement requirement status\", as_of: \"2026-06\" })","result":"As of June 2026 the HOLDS branch is the high-probability state: KFF's tracker shows no active suit against the federal statutory deadline, CMS issued the implementing interim final rule on June 3, 2026, and Trump v. CASA (June 2025) foreclosed nationwide injunctions. So conditioning on 'deadline holds' is conditioning on the modal world (priced at ~89% in the companion policy cell), and the implementation pulse modeled below actually lands in Q1 2027.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:b6a54e8f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:467232ea","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.5","tool":"macpac.lookup","call":"macpac.lookup({ brief: \"State-Reported Medicaid Unwinding Data, Nov 2024\", fields: [\"call_volume\", \"wait_peak\", \"renewals\"] })","result":"Unwinding precedent (Apr 2023–Jun 2024): call volume rose from a 7.1M/month April-2023 baseline to 10.9M in August 2023 (+3.7M, >150%) and peaked near 11.0M in January 2024. National average wait peaked at 'over 13 minutes'; state peaks ranged 1–72 minutes (14 states >30 min). Abandonment peaked at 17.7% nationally. 94.3M renewals over 14 months, 31.8% requiring a returned form; 15.1% procedurally disenrolled for not completing renewal.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:40714431","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:be04323e","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.6","tool":"macpac.lookup","call":"macpac.lookup({ derive: \"incremental_calls_per_action_required_renewal\" })","result":"At the unwinding peak ~3.9M incremental calls/month landed on top of the 7.1M baseline against ~2.1M/month action-required (form) renewals → ~1.8 incremental calls per action-required touchpoint (~0.58 per renewal of any type). This is the reference-class ratio I anchor the work-requirement decomposition to.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c23a2c5f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:b0d23a50","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Work-requirement verification and confusion call volume on top of the now-permanent renewal baseline (Arkansas: 33% of the target population had not heard of the requirement)","Convex queueing response: above ~12M calls/month the wait curve steepens sharply (M/M/1-flavored fit, capacity ~20.5M/mo)","Call-center staffing and IVR/agent-deflection investments — the size of the offset is the dominant swing factor","State implementation-quality variance (unwinding state peaks ranged 1–72 minutes)"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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counterfactual arm","Same outcome, opposite policy state, same model with the work-requirement pulse switched off. If a statute or a nationwide stay delays the community-engagement deadline before April 2027, the implementation wave never lands in Q1; volume reverts toward the renewal-system baseline and staffing catches up. Hold times do not return to the 7-minute world of spring 2025 — renewal volumes and prior churn persist — but the implementation premium does not get added.","Reference class — the unwinding recession, quantified. The cleanest analogue for a 'shock deferred / volumes normalize' path is the back half of the unwinding: after the January 2024 peak (~11M calls, national wait 'over 13 minutes'), volume fell ~26% to 8.1M by June 2024 and most states' waits eased. Without an implementation pulse, March 2027 looks like that recession state — a renewal baseline around 9–10M calls, not the 12–14M of the holds arm. Arkansas's confusion channel (33% unaware) is muted here because no new requirement is being enforced, though some residual confusion calls from 2025–26 coverage churn persist.","Δcalls ≈ 0 by construction in this arm — the work-requirement decomposition (the +3.6M central pulse from the holds arm) is set to zero. The only additions to the renewal baseline are residual churn calls (~0–0.8M/month) from coverage lost during the 2025–26 surge. March-2027 volume is therefore the baseline drift alone: a triangular 8.5–10.5M with mode 9.5M, anchored to the 2025 in-band months (6.3–9.6M) plus modest upward drift from a larger post-surge caseload.","calls→wait fit + offset. Applying the same three-way fit (linear −12.08 + 3.03·V; quadratic; M/M/1-flavored queue, all R²≈0.69, agreeing to ~1 min in this 8.5–10.5M range that sits inside the calibration window): mean-of-fits at 9.5M ≈ 16 min; at 8.5M ≈ 13; at 10.5M ≈ 20. A Monte Carlo with the −3 min central staffing offset (range −6 to 0, anchored to the unwinding catch-up) yields a point of ~15 minutes and an 80% interval of [12, 18] — tight, because this arm sits in the well-sampled, near-linear part of the curve rather than the convex tail.","Counter-consideration — what breaks this each way. Upward: a delay that arrives late or messily (a Q1 court stay after partial state rollout, or a statutory delay enacted in February) could leave a half-started implementation generating confusion calls anyway, plus the 2025–26 churn keeps re-application volume elevated — the upper tail could touch the low 20s. Downward: if the delay is clean and early and staffing fully catches up, March could revert into the low teens like spring 2025. The interval is much narrower than the holds arm because there is no queueing-saturation tail when volume stays under ~11M.","Forecast","Modal path ~15 minutes: elevated above the spring-2025 floor by persistent renewal and churn volume, but well below the holds arm because the implementation pulse never lands. Exactly one arm of this pair resolves. The ~18-minute gap to the holds arm, at roughly 10 million calls a month, is on the order of 1.8 million person-hours of waiting per month — the time-tax-denominated forecast of this single policy state."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:586611a7","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.2","tool":"cms.lookup","call":"cms.lookup({ dataset: \"6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360\", series: \"avg_call_center_wait_minutes_volume_weighted\", periods: \"2024-09..2026-02\" })","result":"Volume-weighted national wait from the datastore (latest period 202602): 2025-05 7.26 (6.76M calls); 2025-09 14.99 (8.48M); 2025-11 10.64 (6.28M); 2025-12 16.42 (8.28M); 2026-01 25.37 (11.94M); 2026-02 24.01 (9.96M). The 2025 series shows the system can sit in the 7–17 min band at 6.7–8.5M calls, which is the regime a delayed scenario reverts toward.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:3ee66fb7","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:72c76175","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.3","tool":"kff.lookup","call":"kff.lookup({ topic: \"2025 reconciliation work requirement\", fields: [\"deadline\", \"verification_cadence\"] })","result":"CBO 18.5M subject/year; verification at application and every 6 months at renewal; effective Jan 1, 2027. In the DELAYED arm none of this verification volume materializes in Q1 2027 — the renewal cadence reverts to its pre-work-requirement form.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:151b498b","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:844d7a65","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.4","tool":"macpac.lookup","call":"macpac.lookup({ brief: \"State-Reported Medicaid Unwinding Data\", fields: [\"baseline_volume\", \"post_surge_level\"] })","result":"Unwinding precedent: call volume ran a 7.1M/month baseline (April 2023), surged to ~11M at peak (Jan 2024), then receded to 8.1M by June 2024 as renewals normalized and staffing caught up. The post-surge recession to ~8M is the analogue for how a deferred-pulse Medicaid call center settles — elevated over deep baseline, below peak.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:84161b03","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:1a76665b","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.5","tool":"litigation.lookup","call":"litigation.lookup({ topic: \"community engagement requirement delay or stay\", as_of: \"2026-06\" })","result":"As of June 2026, KFF's tracker shows NO active suit seeking to block or delay the federal statutory deadline; Georgia is the only state with a work-requirement waiver (expiring 2026-12-31); states are not advancing new 1115 waivers. CMS issued the implementing interim final rule on June 3, 2026. So this arm's conditioning event is, today, the low-probability branch — which is exactly why it is priced separately.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:0447a232","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:8897e242","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Implementation-wave calls deferred; only the renewal baseline and residual churn calls remain","Partial normalization of the 2025–26 volume surge toward ~9–10M calls/month","Call-center staffing catching up to the earlier spike (no new pulse to absorb)","Delay scenarios still carry confusion calls from coverage churned in 2025–26"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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policy-state probability","This cell prices the conditioning event the wait-time pair depends on. The event FAILS only if, by March 31, 2027, either Congress has enacted a statutory delay OR a court order of nationwide effect delays the deadline beyond 2027. Statutory work requirements are not the waiver-era work requirements that courts vacated on administrative-procedure grounds: a statutory deadline cannot be struck the same way, and — decisively — the universal-injunction route has narrowed sharply since this provision was enacted. I decompose P(fail) into its two legs and net the overlap.","Reference class — federal health-program compliance deadlines slipping. The outside view: signature reconciliation provisions rarely get statutorily delayed inside their first implementation quarter (the enacting majority would have to reverse itself). The closest precedents cut against a delay meeting THIS bar: the ACA employer mandate was delayed administratively (2013), not by statute and not via a court order; the Medicaid unwinding timeline shifted through CMS guidance and state-specific extensions, not a nationwide statutory delay or stay; and the 2018–19 work-requirement litigation produced waiver vacaturs (Gresham/Arkansas), which is a different legal posture than staying a statute. Each analogue shows pressure relieved through administrative/state channels — exactly the channels this cell's resolution rule excludes from 'failure'.","P decomposition. P(fail) = P(statutory delay by 2027-03-31) + P(nationwide stay in force by 2027-03-31) − P(overlap). (1) P(statutory delay) ≈ 0.06 (range 0.04–0.10): Congress unwinding its own signature provision within three months, against a CMS rule issued on schedule — low. (2) P(nationwide stay) ≈ 0.05 (range 0.03–0.09): low post-Trump v. CASA, capturing only residual class-action or broadly-read APA-vacatur paths that reach the statutory deadline; no such suit exists today. (3) Overlap ≈ 0.06 × 0.05 ≈ 0.003 (and the two are partly mutually exclusive, since a statutory delay would moot the litigation).","P(fail) = 0.06 + 0.05 − 0.003 = 0.107 → P(hold) = 0.893 ≈ 89%. Propagating the parameter ranges gives P(hold) ∈ [82%, 93%]; I widen the lower bound slightly to 80% for model risk (unmodeled late-2026 implementation politics, e.g. a chaotic rollout shifting congressional will). 80% interval [80, 94]. This is up from the prior 85% specifically because Trump v. CASA — decided after the earlier estimate's framing — removed most of the nationwide-stay mass, and the on-schedule June 2026 IFR is fresh evidence of implementation intent.","Counter-consideration — what would move this down. A genuinely chaotic implementation in late 2026 (mass erroneous disenrollments, the kind of confusion Arkansas saw with 33% unaware) could flip congressional politics toward a bipartisan delay, or prompt a court to certify a nationwide class and grant class-wide relief that effectively suspends the deadline. Either path is live but each is a minority branch on a three-month horizon. The interval's 80% floor encodes that risk; the cell would update fast if a delay bill gained a floor vote or a class were certified.","Forecast","Point 89%, reflecting a high statutory-survival base rate, a post-CASA collapse of the nationwide-stay leg, an on-schedule implementing rule, and a state-extension safety valve that bleeds off pressure for a national delay. Together with the conditional pair this completes the mixture: the unconditional March-2027 wait forecast is the probability-weighted blend of the two arms (≈ 0.89 × 33 + 0.11 × 15 ≈ 31 minutes)."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:26c45e53","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.2","tool":"litigation.lookup","call":"litigation.lookup({ topic: \"Trump v. CASA nationwide injunction authority\", date: \"2025-06-27\" })","result":"Supreme Court held 6-3 in Trump v. CASA (June 27, 2025) that federal courts lack authority to issue universal/nationwide injunctions under the Judiciary Act of 1789. This post-dates the reconciliation law and collapses the most direct path to a nationwide stay of the statutory deadline; residual nationwide-effect relief would require APA vacatur of the implementing rule (which does not by itself move the statutory deadline) or a certified (b)(2) class action.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:1fa6e18d","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:42c58e6f","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.3","tool":"litigation.lookup","call":"litigation.lookup({ topic: \"community engagement requirement challenges\", as_of: \"2026-06\" })","result":"KFF tracker (June 2026): NO active suit seeks to block or delay the federal statutory deadline (Dec 31 2026 / Jan 1 2027). Georgia is the only state with a work-requirement waiver (expiring 2026-12-31); states are not advancing new 1115 waivers. National Health Law Program records show recent work-requirement cases being dismissed. Commentators expect challenges to specific IFR provisions (medically frail definition, SUD stable-recovery exclusion, look-back period), not to the deadline itself.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:d10ebbf7","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:5171acc1","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.4","tool":"macpac.lookup","call":"macpac.lookup({ topic: \"CMS interim final rule implementation posture\", date: \"2026-06-03\" })","result":"CMS published the interim final rule 'Community Engagement Requirement for Certain Individuals' on June 3, 2026: 80 hrs/month, compliance beginning January 1, 2027, binding regulation, projecting 2.3M enrollment reduction in FY2027. The administration issuing the rule on schedule signals intent to implement, not delay — evidence against the statutory-delay leg.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c5c12ff3","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:331594aa","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.2026-06-12T18-52-35Z.tool.5","tool":"kff.lookup","call":"kff.lookup({ topic: \"good faith state exemption / extension mechanism\" })","result":"The law lets the HHS Secretary grant states 'good faith effort' exemptions that expire no later than December 31, 2028. Crucially, the resolution rule treats Secretary-granted STATE extensions as NOT triggering failure — only a nationwide statutory delay or nationwide court stay counts. This safety valve makes a sweeping NATIONAL delay less likely, because political pressure can be vented state-by-state without moving the federal deadline.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:4daedaa9","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:2fd80396","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Repeal or delay requires the enacting congressional majority to unwind its own signature reconciliation provision within ~3 months of its effective date","Trump v. CASA (June 27, 2025, 6-3) bars federal courts from issuing nationwide injunctions — the classic stay mechanism is largely foreclosed","CMS issued the implementing interim final rule on June 3, 2026, and litigation targets specific provisions (medically frail, SUD, look-back), not the statutory deadline","Secretary-granted good-faith state extensions relieve pressure for a national delay; implementation chaos in late 2026 is the main upside risk to a delay"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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The point estimate leans toward the 12-month mean (~1.365M) given that the last two months printed above trend, with a wide CI reflecting realized month-to-month volatility.","","Point: anchor between the 12-mo mean (1365k) and last print (1465k), weighted toward mean-reversion -> 1400k = 1.40M. 80% CI from MoM-change vol: half-width = 1.28*96.6k = 124k; widened to 170k for the preliminary-estimate sampling error. Interval = 1400 +/- 170 = [1230k, 1570k] = [1.23M, 1.57M].","What lands it outside [1.23M, 1.57M]: a large multifamily start/stop (5+ unit projects routinely swing the SAAR by 100k+), a sharp mortgage-rate move, or a weather-driven distortion. 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class: G7 central banks with inflation above target and explicitly rising. The base rate for a hold (no cut) is very high in such regimes; cuts essentially never occur while a central bank is publicly forecasting further inflation increases. Among hold-vs-hike, recent BoE meetings resolved to hold.","Decompose the outcome distribution: P(hold 3.75) ~ 0.93, P(hike to 4.00) ~ 0.06, P(cut to 3.50) ~ 0.01. Expected value 3.75 + 0.06*0.25 - 0.01*0.25 ~ 3.7625, which rounds to the modal 3.75. The 80% interval contains only the modal value at its low end; the high end 4.00 captures the hawkish tail within the upper 20% mass envelope.","With inflation rising toward/through 3.3% and the BoE signalling 'higher later this year', the Committee is in a hold-and-watch posture; a cut contradicts its own guidance, and a hike would be a notable hawkish surprise given two recent holds. Modal outcome: unchanged at 3.75%.","Lands outside a point-3.75 expectation only if the energy shock plus a hot May CPI (released 17 June, the day before) pushes a majority to hike to 4.00% — the realistic upside tail and the reason ciHigh is 4.00 rather than 3.75. A cut to 3.50 is essentially ruled out by the Bank's own 'higher later this year' language.","Published forecast: point 3.75, 80% interval [3.75, 4]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:79536e65","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.0","tool":"boe.lookup","call":"Fetched bankofengland.co.uk 'Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision': 'Current Bank Rate 3.75%', 'Next due: 18 June 2026', 'interest rate held at 3.75%', published 30 April 2026.","result":"Fetched bankofengland.co.uk 'Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision': 'Current Bank Rate 3.75%', 'Next due: 18 June 2026', 'interest rate held at 3.75%', published 30 April 2026. Page last updated 26 May 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:f07c0915","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:ea3f009d","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.1","tool":"boe.lookup","call":"Fetched the BoE 'upcoming MPC dates' page: 2026 confirmed announcement dates Thursday 5 February, Thursday 19 March, Thursday 18 June, with 30 April listed as the April Monetary Policy Report meeting.","result":"Fetched the BoE 'upcoming MPC dates' page: 2026 confirmed announcement dates Thursday 5 February, Thursday 19 March, Thursday 18 June, with 30 April listed as the April Monetary Policy Report meeting. 'Next due: 18 June 2026' confirms the resolution date.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:dddc7aa4","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:d4c3c095","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.2","tool":"boe.lookup","call":"Captured the prior two outcomes verbatim from the same source: 'Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - March 2026' (19 March) and 'Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - April 2026' (30 April).","result":"Captured the prior two outcomes verbatim from the same source: 'Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - March 2026' (19 March) and 'Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - April 2026' (30 April). Two consecutive holds at 3.75%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:5c8e9b45","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:079e3b07","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Inflation is above the 2% target and the MPC expects it to rise further this year because of the energy/'war' shock — this removes the case for a cut.","The MPC held at 3.75% at both of its two most recent meetings (March, April), signalling a wait-and-see stance.","Market pricing (per public trackers cited in late May) put the probability of a hold on 18 June around 96%.","A small hawkish tail exists: rising inflation plus prior hike dissent means a 25bp increase to 4.00% is the only realistic alternative to a hold."]},"resolution":{"status":"linked","resolutionRef":"resolution.boe-bank-rate-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18","ledgerFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-16T12-28-37Z.boe-bank-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-16t12-28-37z","specId":"spec.boe-bank-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"boe-bank-rate-june-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Thesis analyst fast run","runDescription":"Validated live Codex-backed thesis.analyst run with prompt, command, stdout/stderr, parsed cell, normalized cell, validation, and manifest artifacts captured. 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for the 18 June 2026 Bank of England Bank Rate decision","The resolver is the first official Bank of England June 2026 MPC Monetary Policy Summary page. Because Bank Rate is a policy decision level, the target is the rate after the announcement, not a later revised statistical series.","Base-rate/reference-class step: the last three MPC meetings all held at 3.75%, and the most recent vote distribution shifted from February cut dissents to March unanimous hold to April one hike dissent, so the modal reference case for the next meeting is another hold at 3.75%.","Counter-consideration: upside inflation and energy-price risks make a 4.00% hike plausible, while weak activity and a loosening labour market keep a 3.50% cut in the broader 80% set; both alternatives are less likely than a hold two days before the scheduled release.","Use the BoE's usual 0.25 percentage-point policy grid. Point estimate is the modal hold, 3.75. For an 80% interval, include the adjacent cut and hike outcomes around the modal decision: ciLow = 3.50, point = 3.75, ciHigh = 4.00.","Published forecast: point 3.75, 80% interval [3.5, 4]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:3c55cff7","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-16T12-28-37Z.boe-bank-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-16t12-28-37z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the Bank of England home page and current Bank Rate module.","result":"Fetched Current Bank Rate 3.75%, Next due 18 June 2026, and current inflation rate 2.8%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:9febc7d0","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:a7d24dce","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-16T12-28-37Z.boe-bank-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-16t12-28-37z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the Bank of England interest rates and Bank Rate page.","result":"Fetched Current Bank Rate 3.75%, latest decision held at 3.75%, published 30 April 2026, inflation 3.3%, and next due 18 June 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c57cdde9","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:f3c5ae03","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-16T12-28-37Z.boe-bank-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-16t12-28-37z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the Bank of England MPC dates page for 2026 and 2027.","result":"Fetched confirmed 2026 MPC dates including Thursday 5 February, 19 March, 30 April, 18 June, 30 July, 17 September, 5 November, 17 December; current Bank Rate 3.75%; next due 18 June 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:408f58cf","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:b611c5c2","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.2026-06-16T12-28-37Z.boe-bank-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-16t12-28-37z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the June 2026 MPC page placeholder.","result":"Fetched page title for June 2026 MPC Summary, Published on 18 June 2026, and statement that it will be published on 18 June 2026 at 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realized signal is limited (Mar 1.8 -> Apr 1.4, a -0.4pp move driven by the subsidy step). Japan core is normally smooth (typical monthly YoY moves +/-0.1-0.2pp); the -0.4 was a one-off policy/base shift. Absent another subsidy step, a flat-to-slightly-lower May near 1.3-1.5 is most likely. I set the 80% half-width at ~0.4pp to reflect policy-driven jump risk rather than the tiny ordinary-noise stdev.","Reference class: Japan core CPI monthly YoY changes are among the lowest-variance in the G7 in calm periods (mostly within +/-0.2pp), but subsidy on/off events produce occasional 0.3-0.5pp jumps. Conditioning on an active-subsidy regime, the modal move is small; the tails are driven by subsidy policy changes.","With subsidies still in place and core-core softening, core most likely holds near the April 1.4% level or drifts marginally lower. Point estimate 1.4%.","Lands outside [1.0, 1.8] if: subsidies are scaled back or expire and oil passes through, lifting core toward ~1.9-2.0 (upside tail), or an expanded subsidy / sharp energy drop pulls it below ~1.0 (downside tail). Food (rice) and services pass-through could also surprise to the upside. Because the dominant variable is discretionary subsidy policy, the distribution is bimodal-leaning rather than smooth; the interval captures the central mass but a policy shift could exit it.","Published forecast: point 1.4, 80% interval [1, 1.8]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:1d46c8b6","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.0","tool":"estat.lookup","call":"Fetched Statistics Bureau CPI latest-results context: national core CPI (all items less fresh food) eased to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March; core-core (less fresh food and energy) 1.9%.","result":"Fetched Statistics Bureau CPI latest-results context: national core CPI (all items less fresh food) eased to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March; core-core (less fresh food and energy) 1.9%. 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This is the resolution date.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:67e3c8b1","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:468a0fe3","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.2","tool":"estat.lookup","call":"Captured the policy driver from the release commentary: government fuel subsidies are offsetting oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict, which is why core fell to 1.4% despite higher crude.","result":"Captured the policy driver from the release commentary: government fuel subsidies are offsetting oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict, which is why core fell to 1.4% despite higher crude. Core-core 1.9% (softest since July 2024) confirms easing underlying momentum.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:286bbd4d","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:305f3c8c","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Government fuel/energy subsidies are the dominant near-term suppressant on core, directly capping the energy component.","Higher global oil prices (Iran conflict) push the other way but are largely absorbed by the subsidies for now.","Underlying core-core at 1.9% shows demand-driven inflation is gently softening, consistent with a flat-to-lower core path.","Rice/processed-food and services pass-through remain the main upside risks within core."]},"resolution":{"status":"linked","resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05","ledgerFactRef":"estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-17T01-52-06Z.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t01-52-06z","specId":"spec.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Thesis analyst fast run","runDescription":"Validated live Codex-backed thesis.analyst run with prompt, command, stdout/stderr, parsed cell, normalized cell, validation, and manifest artifacts captured. 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month-over-month change in the all-items YoY rate over the last 5 transitions = [+0.2, -0.1, -0.5, +0.6, +0.4]; mean = +0.12pp, population stdev = 0.39pp. Recent-3 mean = +0.17pp (upward drift). An 80% interval is roughly last value +/- 1.28*0.39 ~ +/- 0.50pp.","Reference class: month-to-month moves in Canada's all-items CPI YoY rate. Moves have ranged -0.5 to +0.6pp over six months; the median absolute move is ~0.36pp. Energy-driven episodes (like the current one) tend to plateau once the steepest base effect annualises, arguing for a flatter May than the +0.4/+0.6 jumps of March/April.","Gasoline's YoY contribution should remain elevated in May (May-2025 gasoline was still soft), but the largest mechanical jumps are behind us and ex-gasoline inflation is easing. Net: roughly flat to slightly up from April's 2.8%. Point estimate 2.8%.","Lands outside [2.3, 3.3] if: a renewed oil/gasoline surge from the conflict pushes headline to ~3.4-3.5 (upside tail), or the updated basket-weight rebasing plus an energy pullback drags it toward ~2.1-2.2 (downside tail). The basket-weight change is a genuine non-Gaussian wildcard for the May print specifically, so tails are modestly fatter than the realized stdev implies; I widened the band to +/-0.5 partly for this.","Published forecast: point 2.8, 80% interval [2.3, 3.3]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:b6bc4b21","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.0","tool":"statcan.lookup","call":"Queried StatCan WDS API (getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods, vector 41690973, all-items CPI index NSA).","result":"Queried StatCan WDS API (getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods, vector 41690973, all-items CPI index NSA). Computed 12-month changes: Nov-25 2.2, Dec-25 2.4, Jan-26 2.3, Feb-26 1.8, Mar-26 2.4, Apr-26 2.8. 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Confirms the API-computed values.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c1db9cdd","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:bb774d0e","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.2","tool":"statcan.lookup","call":"Fetched The Daily, February 2026 (260316): all-items +1.8% YoY following +2.3% in January, with the slowdown attributed to the GST/HST tax-break base effect ending February 2025.","result":"Fetched The Daily, February 2026 (260316): all-items +1.8% YoY following +2.3% in January, with the slowdown attributed to the GST/HST tax-break base effect ending February 2025. Also confirmed via the 2026-2027 release-dates document that the May 2026 CPI publishes 22 June 2026 and uses updated basket weights effective 15 June.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:558ed733","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:e8cafb83","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Energy/gasoline base effects: gasoline was falling year-on-year through spring 2025, so the 2026 YoY energy comparison stayed strongly positive into April (+28.6%); this is the main force lifting headline.","The February 2026 GST/HST base-effect dip has fully washed out, so the trend from March onward reflects underlying momentum (+0.4 to +0.6pp jumps in the YoY rate in March and April).","Updated basket weights (15 June 2026) reshuffle component shares and add a small one-off uncertainty to the May print.","Ex-gasoline inflation easing (2.0% in April) is a partial offsetting disinflationary 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Canada all-items CPI year-over-year inflation for May 2026","The resolver is the first Statistics Canada May 2026 all-items CPI 12-month change for Canada, not seasonally adjusted, published in The Daily and Table 18-10-0004-01 to one decimal percent.","Base-rate reference class: the last five headline prints were 2.4, 2.3, 1.8, 2.4, and 2.8 percent, averaging 2.34 percent, while the latest three-month average was about 2.33 percent. The near-term trend and energy shock argue above that base, but not far above April because April already incorporated a large gasoline and carbon-levy base effect.","Counter-consideration: if Middle East-linked oil prices or local gasoline prices rose further through May, the print could exceed 3 percent; if the full-month fuel excise tax suspension and softer shelter or travel components dominated, May could fall toward the low 2s.","Anchor on April 2.8. Add about +0.1 for continued energy pass-through and recent upward momentum, subtract about -0.2 for April-specific base effects and a full month of fuel-tax relief, giving 2.7. Use an 80% interval of 2.1 to 3.4 to cover typical one-month CPI surprise plus unusually high gasoline volatility.","Published forecast: point 2.7, 80% interval [2.1, 3.4]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:fedceffe","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-17T01-51-10Z.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t01-51-10z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Statistics Canada The Daily Consumer Price Index, April 2026 release.","result":"Fetched April 2026 all-items CPI 12-month change 2.8%, March prior 2.4%, month-over-month CPI 0.4%, seasonally adjusted monthly 0.3%, CPI excluding gasoline 2.0%, energy 19.2%, gasoline 28.6%, fuel oil and other fuels 41.3%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:ea0733b4","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:2d8576d9","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-17T01-51-10Z.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t01-51-10z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Statistics Canada The Daily Consumer Price Index, March 2026 release.","result":"Fetched March 2026 all-items CPI 12-month change 2.4%, February prior 1.8%, month-over-month CPI 0.9%, seasonally adjusted monthly 0.5%, energy 3.9%, gasoline 5.9%, gasoline monthly 21.2%, food from stores 4.4%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:ff89c3e9","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:48ac898e","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-17T01-51-10Z.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t01-51-10z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Statistics Canada The Daily Consumer Price Index, February 2026 release.","result":"Fetched February 2026 all-items CPI 12-month change 1.8%, January prior 2.3%, month-over-month CPI 0.5%, seasonally adjusted monthly 0.1%, gasoline -14.2%, natural gas -17.1%, food from stores 4.1%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:41bfcae0","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:ec7a7bee","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.2026-06-17T01-51-10Z.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t01-51-10z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked Statistics Canada The Daily Consumer Price Index, January 2026 and December 2025 releases.","result":"Fetched January 2026 all-items CPI 12-month change 2.3%, December 2025 all-items CPI 12-month change 2.4%, January CPI excluding food and energy 2.4%, January CPI excluding gasoline 3.0%, December gasoline 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An 80% half-width ~ 1.28*0.45 ~ 0.58pp.","Reference class: ABS monthly CPI indicator YoY moves are notably noisier than quarterly CPI; single-month swings of +/-0.4-0.9pp are common (e.g. Mar +0.9, Apr -0.4). The mean-reverting pattern after the March spike argues for a level near or just below April's 4.2 rather than a fresh jump.","Underlying (trimmed mean 3.4%) is far below headline, so headline is being held up by volatile/administered items (electricity rebates, transport/fuel). With the March spike unwound and goods inflation easing, May most likely settles slightly below April's 4.2, around 4.1, give or take the indicator's wide monthly noise. Point estimate 4.1%.","Lands outside [3.5, 4.7] if: an electricity-rebate base/timing effect or a fuel jump (oil conflict) lifts the indicator above ~4.8 (upside tail), or a rebate roll-on or housing-component reversal drops it toward ~3.3-3.4, converging on the trimmed mean (downside tail). 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With no information yet on the 6/13 print, the best estimate reverts slightly further toward the trailing mean, and the interval is a touch wider to reflect the longer horizon.","","Point: pull a bit closer to the trailing-8 mean (211.5k) than the 6/13 cell, landing at 220k (vs 222k for the nearer week). 80% CI from WoW vol over a ~2-week-ahead path: half-width = 1.28*10.9*sqrt(1.2) ~ 15.3k, widened to 22k. Interval = 220 +/- 22 = [198k, 242k].","What lands it outside [198, 242]: a fresh layoff cluster or seasonal-adjustment overshoot above 242k, or an unusually clean low print (e.g. holiday-week filing dip) below 198k. The further horizon means a 6/13 surprise would also shift the 6/20 baseline.","Published forecast: point 220, 80% interval [198, 242]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:79e4e21f","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-12T18-32-08Z.tool.2","tool":"fred.lookup","call":"GET fredgraph.csv?id=ICSA (initial claims SA, persons); /1000","result":"{\"thousands\":{\"2026-05-16\":210,\"2026-05-23\":212,\"2026-05-30\":225,\"2026-06-06\":229},\"latest_week_ending\":\"2026-06-06\",\"latest_value\":229}","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:f486cf0b","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:69174930","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-12T18-32-08Z.tool.3","tool":"dol.calendar","call":"DOL UI Weekly Claims cadence: Thursdays 08:30 ET; wk 2026-06-20 -> release 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for DOL seasonally adjusted initial claims, week ending June 20, 2026","The resolver is the DOL ETA first-print advance seasonally adjusted initial claims count for the week ending Saturday, June 20, 2026, reported in the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. The DOL economic-data page identifies the ETA Office of Unemployment Insurance as the publisher of this weekly report and links the current official PDF.","Base-rate/reference-class: weekly initial claims are noisy but mean-reverting at a 1-3 week horizon. Recent 2026 levels cluster near 210,000-229,000, while the same June window in 2025 ran 231,000-246,000, so a central forecast should stay near the latest value but not fully extrapolate the late-May jump.","Recent 5-week average using DOL/FRED values is (212,000 + 210,000 + 212,000 + 225,000 + 229,000) / 5 = 217,600. The latest 4-week average is 219,000. A same-season 2025 anchor for week ending June 21 is 236,000, but current June 6 is 17,000 below the 2025 comparable 246,000, implying an adjusted seasonal anchor near 219,000. I blend latest 229,000, recent-average 218,000, and seasonal-adjusted 219,000, then allow for another school-calendar noisy week to set the point at 226,000.","Counter-consideration: the June 6 unadjusted actual claims jumped by 39,713 and state moves in California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and other large states show timing noise that could persist into the June 20 week; this raises upside risk even though the seasonally adjusted series may mean-revert.","For an 80% interval, recent weekly moves include +13,000, +4,000, -25,000, and +15,000 over spring 2026, and June school-season volatility can add several thousand more. Around a 226,000 point, a practical 80% range is roughly -21,000/+24,000, giving 205,000 to 250,000.","Published forecast: point 226, 80% interval [205, 250]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:146925d5","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-17T02-23-52Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-23-52z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the DOL ETA June 11, 2026 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report PDF.","result":"Fetched latest headline: week ending June 6, 2026 seasonally adjusted initial claims were 229,000, up 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised 225,000; 4-week moving average was 219,000, up 4,250 from 214,750.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:13512ae0","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:17f28fb0","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-17T02-23-52Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-23-52z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Read the official DOL weekly claims table in the same PDF.","result":"Fetched table values: June 6, 2026 SA initial claims 229,000; May 30, 2026 225,000; May 23, 2026 212,000; comparable prior-year June 7, 2025 value 246,000.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:5a1a3539","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:93cac3dc","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-17T02-23-52Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-23-52z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Read the longer seasonally adjusted weekly claims history table in the DOL PDF.","result":"Fetched reference-class values: June 14, 2025 initial claims 243,000; June 21, 2025 236,000; June 28, 2025 231,000; May 16, 2026 210,000; May 9, 2026 212,000.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:44fa8ae6","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:bba6b1e6","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-17T02-23-52Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-23-52z.tool.5","tool":"mirror.lookup","call":"Opened FRED ICSA as a history mirror and release metadata cross-check.","result":"Fetched FRED mirror: 2026-06-06 was 229,000, 2026-05-30 was 225,000, 2026-05-23 was 212,000, 2026-05-16 was 210,000, and next listed release date was Jun 18, 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:9e211cc0","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:eae575ef","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-17T02-23-52Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-23-52z.tool.6","tool":"calendar.lookup","call":"Opened FRED release calendar page and DOL economic data page for release scheduling context.","result":"Fetched calendar metadata: FRED calendar displayed 2026 release calendar controls and states release dates are published by data sources; DOL current PDF is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. 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for DOL seasonally adjusted initial claims, week ending June 20, 2026","The resolver is the first-print national seasonally adjusted initial claims figure in the ETA weekly claims report for the week ending June 20, 2026; the unit here is thousands of claims.","Base-rate reference class: one-week changes in this series are usually small relative to the level, and the latest sequence 210k, 212k, 225k, 230k, 226k puts a neutral forecast in the low-to-mid 220s rather than implying a new break.","Recent anchors: 3-week average = (226 + 230 + 225) / 3 = 227.0; 5-week average = (226 + 230 + 225 + 212 + 210) / 5 = 220.6; latest 4-week average = 223.25. I put the point at 225, slightly below the 3-week average but above the 5-week average because early-June claims have been elevated versus May.","Counter-consideration: the end-of-school-year period can create seasonal-adjustment noise, so a sharper move toward 235k or back toward 210k is plausible even without a real layoff-cycle shift.","For an 80% interval, I use roughly +/-17k around the 225k point, reflecting normal weekly volatility and recent early-summer noise: low 208, high 243.","Published forecast: point 225, 80% interval [208, 243]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:f6a340dc","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-21T15-11-54Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-11-54z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened DOL current weekly claims PDF at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.","result":"Fetched latest report embargoed until 8:30 A.M. Eastern Thursday, June 18, 2026; week ending June 13 seasonally adjusted initial claims were 226,000; previous week revised to 230,000; 4-week moving average was 223,250.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:beae2459","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:59fad5cc","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.2026-06-21T15-11-54Z.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-11-54z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened DOL ETA newsroom release listing at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta.","result":"Fetched June 18, 2026 release summary: week ending June 13 initial claims 226,000, decrease 4,000 from revised 230,000; June 11 release summary: week ending June 6 initial claims 229,000 before later revision; June 4 summary: week ending May 30 initial claims 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for May 2026 core PCE monthly inflation","The resolver is the BEA first print for Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026: PCE price index excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted monthly percent change. This is a first-print forecast, so later BEA revisions should not alter the resolved value.","Base-rate/reference-class: recent core PCE monthly prints cluster between about 0.2 and 0.4 percent, with the FRED-implied latest four monthly changes at 0.239, 0.295, 0.396, and 0.427 percent. The April first print rounded to 0.2 percent despite firm headline PCE, so a May forecast should lean below the raw recent average but above the softer core CPI alone.","Counter-consideration: May core CPI at 0.2 percent and declines in new vehicles, household furnishings, and motor vehicle insurance point to a low core PCE print. Against that, PPI services and portfolio-management prices were firm, and some PPI inputs feed more directly into PCE than CPI components do.","Recent FRED-implied core PCE mean for Jan-Apr is (0.427 + 0.396 + 0.295 + 0.239) / 4 = 0.339 percent. I downweight that toward May core CPI of 0.2 because CPI was softer, while adding some PPI-services pressure: 0.55*0.24 latest core PCE momentum + 0.30*0.20 core CPI + 0.15*0.52 PPI-informed pressure = 0.270 percent. An 80 percent interval of 0.12 to 0.42 covers normal nowcast error and component-mapping uncertainty.","Published forecast: point 0.27, 80% interval [0.12, 0.42]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:1c469821","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026.2026-06-17T02-16-13Z.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-16-13z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BEA release schedule for the official May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays publication date.","result":"BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 on June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule page shows Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 on July 30, 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especially services inputs relevant to PCE","Recent core PCE momentum was around 0.24 to 0.40 percent before rounding","Energy shock is mostly excluded but can pass through into some core services and goods"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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MoM change in openings: last 12 changes (thousands) = [212,-106,-115,-170,250,1,-324,-296,690,-318,-35,731]. Population stdev of the monthly change over the last 24 months = 320k. This is the single most volatile of the six series; an 80% band (z=1.28) implies ~+/-410k from the conditional centre, before mean-reversion.","No persistent trend; the 6-month mean change is only +75k and the 12-month mean +43k. The series is range-bound 6.5-7.6M. The dominant feature for May is the April +731k spike, which is an outlier likely to partly reverse.","Base rate over the last 12 months: mean level ~7.04M, with openings printing in the high-6M / low-7M range far more often than near 7.6M. Unconditionally the centre of gravity is ~7.0-7.2M, below April's 7.618M.","After the +690k jump in Sep->... and the +731k April jump, history shows large positive shocks are typically followed by give-back (e.g. the +690k in Jan 2026 was followed by -318k). Applying partial reversion (~40-50% of the +731k) to April's 7.618M lands May near ~7.25-7.40M.","Outside [6.85, 7.85] if: April's 7.618M is revised up and May extends the surge above ~7.85M; or a demand-side pullback (oil shock, hiring freeze) snaps openings back below ~6.85M as in late-2025 (Dec 6.55M). JOLTS' low response rate makes a >400k surprise routine.","Partial mean-reversion from the April spike toward the 7.0-7.2M base, shaded up for macro strength -> point 7.35M. 80% CI = 7.35 +/- ~0.50M -> [6.85, 7.85].","Published forecast: point 7.35, 80% interval [6.85, 7.85]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:6e78666c","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.jolts-openings-may-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED JTSJOL CSV.","result":"Fetched FRED JTSJOL CSV. Latest = Apr 2026 at 7,618k (7.618M). 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Net centre ~7.35M.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:42c33131","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:6ca1502e","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Openings have oscillated in a 6.5-7.6M band over the past year with no durable trend.","April spiked to 7.618M (+731k); such jumps typically partially mean-revert the following month.","Solid Q2 GDPNow (3.3%) and positive payroll growth argue against a sharp drop in labor demand.","Oil-shock uncertainty is a mild headwind to new postings in energy-sensitive sectors.","JOLTS has low response rates and is among the noisiest monthly labor series (large revisions)."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.jolts-openings-may-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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month-over-month change in the HICP annual rate over the last 6 transitions = [-0.1, -0.3, +0.2, +0.7, +0.4, +0.2]; mean = +0.18pp, population stdev = 0.32pp; recent-3 mean = +0.43pp but the increments are shrinking (0.7 -> 0.4 -> 0.2), indicating deceleration in the pace. An 80% half-width ~ 1.28*0.32 ~ 0.41pp.","Reference class: euro area flash HICP monthly YoY moves. In energy-shock episodes the rate climbs then plateaus as the oil base annualises; the recent sequence (+0.7, +0.4, +0.2) is a textbook decelerating climb. Base case for the next step is a small move, most likely 0.0 to +0.1pp, centering June near the May 3.2 level.","With the increments shrinking and energy still elevated but no longer accelerating sharply, June flash most likely holds near 3.2%, with a mild upward tilt if oil stays high. Point estimate 3.2%.","Lands outside [2.8, 3.6] if: a further oil leg-up plus sticky services pushes the flash to ~3.7-3.8 (upside tail), or an energy reversal / soft services drags it to ~2.6-2.7 (downside tail). Flash estimates are themselves revised modestly, and divergent large-member-state prints (DE/FR/IT/ES) can swing the aggregate; the oil-shock regime makes the upside tail somewhat fatter than the downside.","Published forecast: point 3.2, 80% interval [2.8, 3.6]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:6d918672","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-51-12Z.tool.0","tool":"eurostat.lookup","call":"Fetched Eurostat flash release 2-02062026-ap (May 2026): euro area HICP 3.2% (flash), up from 3.0% in April.","result":"Fetched Eurostat flash release 2-02062026-ap (May 2026): euro area HICP 3.2% (flash), up from 3.0% in April. 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This is the resolution date.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:3481c968","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:6b4d09c2","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Energy: the +10.9% YoY energy rate in May is the dominant force; June 2025 energy prices were low, keeping the YoY energy comparison elevated in June 2026.","Services stickiness: services re-accelerated to 3.5% in May, adding underlying momentum.","Base effects: the oil spike is annualising, so the pace of acceleration should slow even if the level stays high or edges up.","Food/alcohol/tobacco easing (2.0% in May, from 2.4% in April) is a modest offset."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-10-25Z.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-10-25z","specId":"spec.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Thesis analyst fast run","runDescription":"Validated live Codex-backed thesis.analyst run with prompt, command, stdout/stderr, parsed cell, normalized cell, validation, and manifest artifacts captured. 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dispersion of the monthly change. Population stdev of PAYEMS monthly change: last 24 months = 100.7k; last 12 months = 120.1k. First-print-to-first-print volatility is comparable. Use ~85-105k as the 1-sigma scale for an 80% band (z=1.28).","3-month mean change = +188k; 6-month mean = +92k; 12-month mean = +42k. Momentum is positive but the trailing-3 is inflated by Mar's +214k; the run-rate is decelerating month-over-month (214 -> 179 -> 172). Trend-blend lands near +150k before adjustment.","Base rate: over the last 12 months the median over-the-month change is +52.5k and the mean +42k, i.e. a soft-but-positive labor market. The spring 2026 prints (170-214k) sit well above that 12-month base, suggesting some reversion toward the +100-150k zone is more likely than a repeat of +200k.","Outside the interval if: (a) the Middle East oil shock triggers an abrupt energy/transport layoff wave or confidence shock pushing the print below ~+35k or negative; or (b) another large upside surprise (like May's beat) driven by health care/government hiring pushes it above ~+245k. Single-month CES sampling/birth-death noise can also produce a >100k surprise in either direction.","Blend trend (+150k), 12-month base (~+50k) and the forecaster anchor (+130k), tilting to the firmer recent first prints -> point +140k. 80% band = point +/- ~1.28*82k ~= +/-105k -> [35, 245].","Published forecast: point 140, 80% interval [35, 245]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:fdf9fd56","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED PAYEMS CSV (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PAYEMS).","result":"Fetched FRED PAYEMS CSV (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PAYEMS). Level latest 2026-05 = 159,001k. Monthly diffs (thousands), last 6: Dec -17, Jan +160, Feb -156, Mar +214, Apr +179, May +172.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:2d1ce61c","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:3da926d6","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.1","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched the Thesis fact ledger (ledger.json): the resolved May-2026 first print was +172k (BLS Employment Situation, released 2026-06-05).","result":"Fetched the Thesis fact ledger (ledger.json): the resolved May-2026 first print was +172k (BLS Employment Situation, released 2026-06-05). So the level-series May change (172) equals the first print — recent revisions are small at short horizon.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:ab897d33","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:6d2f13a6","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.5","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Cross-checked a professional forecast: Capital Economics projects ~+130k for June with unemployment steady.","result":"Cross-checked a professional forecast: Capital Economics projects ~+130k for June with unemployment steady. Consensus for May had been only +80k and actual was +172k, so consensus has been low-biased recently; I weight the firm forecast and recent beats toward a centre slightly above 130k.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:dac0f0da","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:b7a45ad3","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Recent first-print/revised momentum running ~+170-210k in spring 2026 (May first print +172k, Apr +179k, Mar +214k).","Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q2 2026 at 3.3% (Jun 9) signals solid output growth, supportive of hiring.","Middle East oil shock raises energy costs and uncertainty, a headwind to labor demand in energy-sensitive sectors.","Professional forecasters (Capital Economics) look for a cooler ~+130k June gain as the spring beats normalize.","First prints in 2025 were frequently weak and revised; 2026 prints have been firmer and beating 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2026 US nonfarm payrolls first-print forecast","The resolver is the first BLS Employment Situation print for June 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, measured as the month-over-month change in thousands.","Base-rate/reference class: the latest three first prints available in this run are March +185k, April +115k, and May +172k, averaging about +157k. 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2026 US nonfarm payrolls first print","The resolver is the first BLS Employment Situation print for June 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, measured as the monthly change in thousands. Later revisions do not count.","Base rate: the last three available payroll changes average about 188 thousand using 214, 179, and 172. That is a strong starting point, but it likely overstates June because the latest claims average has moved up and May had unusually large leisure, hospitality, and local-government gains.","Counter-consideration: claims are still low by historical standards and BLS revised March and April up sharply, so a sudden weak or negative print is not the central case. The main risk is normal first-print noise, not a clear labor-market break.","I start from the recent 188 thousand three-month average, shade down roughly 45 thousand for mild claims deterioration and possible payback from May strength, then round to 140 thousand. An 80% first-print interval of 35 to 245 thousand allows about +/-105 thousand around the point, consistent with volatile monthly CES surprises.","Published forecast: point 140, 80% interval [35, 245]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:9fcb79a5","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-06-37Z.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-06-37z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BLS Employment Situation release schedule for the June 2026 reference month.","result":"BLS schedule lists June 2026 Employment Situation release on Jul. 02, 2026 at 08:30 AM; May 2026 was Jun. 05, 2026 at 08:30 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reported.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:4d5ebdfb","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:88cdf35a","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-06-37Z.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-06-37z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Read BLS Table B-1 for the exact current-series level and May monthly change.","result":"Table B-1 shows seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment of 158,650 in Mar. 2026, 158,829 in Apr. 2026, 159,001 in May 2026, and a May change of 172 thousand.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:643a275c","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:0b6accf5","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-06-37Z.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-06-37z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the latest official DOL unemployment insurance weekly claims release for layoff pressure near the survey month.","result":"DOL reported initial claims of 226,000 for the week ending Jun. 13, 2026, down 4,000 from the revised 230,000 prior week; the 4-week moving average was 223,250, up 4,000; insured unemployment was 1,810,000 for the week ending Jun. 6.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:39cf7e0f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:864156f4","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Recent payroll growth stayed 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month-over-month change in the rounded rate over the last 24 months: population stdev = 0.107 percentage points; nearly all monthly moves are within +/-0.2pp. An 80% interval is therefore roughly point +/- 0.13pp, which after rounding to the published 0.1 grid maps to ~[4.1, 4.5].","No trend to extrapolate: the level has been flat at 4.3% with tiny oscillation 4.3<->4.4. Persistence is the dominant signal; best single-value guess = repeat 4.3%.","Base rate over the last 12 months: the modal print is 4.3% (and 4.3-4.4 covers almost every month). Unconditionally, P(June = 4.3) is the highest single-bin probability; 4.2 and 4.4 are the next most likely.","Outside [4.1, 4.5] if: a sudden oil-shock-driven layoff surge or a participation jump pushes U-3 to 4.6%+, or a tightening/participation drop prints 4.0%. Both are tail events for a one-month rounded rate given the recent 0.1pp typical move.","Persistence + tiny volatility -> point 4.3%. 80% CI spans one rounding step either side plus a margin: [4.1, 4.5].","Published forecast: point 4.3, 80% interval [4.1, 4.5]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:543245a7","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED UNRATE CSV.","result":"Fetched FRED UNRATE CSV. Last 6 prints: Dec 4.4, Jan 4.3, Feb 4.4, Mar 4.3, Apr 4.3, May 4.3. 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Consistent with a 4.3% centre (their text cites 4.2%, within the band, reflecting rounding/measurement near the 4.2-4.3 boundary).","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:f56072a2","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:97843502","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Rate has been remarkably stable, printing 4.3% in 5 of the last 6 months.","Payroll growth still positive (~+170k recent first prints), consistent with a flat-to-slightly-firm labor market.","Labor force participation and household-survey noise can move the rounded rate by 0.1pp month to month.","Oil-shock-driven slowdown risk could nudge the rate up over coming months but is unlikely to show fully in a single June print."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-rate-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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I set the 80 percent interval at 4.1 to 4.6 to allow roughly minus 0.2 to plus 0.3 points around the recent 4.3 percent center, with slightly more upside due to household-survey volatility.","Published forecast: point 4.3, 80% interval [4.1, 4.6]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:e4eaaa52","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-19-19Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-19-19z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BLS Employment Situation release calendar for the June 2026 reference month.","result":"BLS calendar lists June 2026 release date as Jul. 02, 2026 at 08:30 AM.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:db65af6e","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:00528457","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-19-19Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-19-19z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the latest BLS Employment Situation summary for May 2026.","result":"May 2026 unemployment rate was 4.3 percent; total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000; unemployed people were 7.3 million.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:096a678a","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:e3d4569b","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-19-19Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-19-19z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BLS seasonally adjusted household summary table A for May 2026.","result":"Unemployment rate row shows May 2025 4.3, Mar. 2026 4.3, Apr. 2026 4.3, May 2026 4.3; participation rate was 61.8 in Apr. 2026 and 61.8 in May 2026.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:9d6d2df3","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:3d3701e2","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-19-19Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-19-19z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked BLS Table A-1 for the latest seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment-rate path.","result":"Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates were Jan. 2026 4.3, Feb. 2026 4.4, Mar. 2026 4.3, Apr. 2026 4.3, May 2026 4.3.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:d9870213","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:eb9471b1","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Recent unemployment rate has been flat near 4.3 percent","May payroll growth was strong at 172,000","Labor-force participation was unchanged at 61.8 percent","Unemployed count fell by 66,000 in May","Long-term unemployment remains elevated at 2.0 million"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-rate-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-07-35Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-07-35z","specId":"spec.unemployment-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"unemployment-rate-june-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Thesis analyst fast run","runDescription":"Validated live Codex-backed thesis.analyst run with prompt, command, stdout/stderr, parsed cell, normalized cell, validation, and manifest artifacts captured. 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levels.","Use persistence as the anchor: median of Jan-May rounded rates = 4.3. Apply no drift because May payrolls were strong and participation was flat, but widen the 80 percent interval to roughly one BLS household-survey rounded-rate move below and above: 4.1 to 4.6.","Published forecast: point 4.3, 80% interval [4.1, 4.6]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:40b8bfc0","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.unemployment-rate-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-07-35Z.unemployment-rate-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-07-35z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BLS Employment Situation release calendar for the June 2026 reference month.","result":"BLS calendar lists June 2026 Employment Situation release on Jul. 02, 2026 at 08:30 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61.8 percent","BLS notes the rate has stayed in a 4.3 to 4.5 percent range since July 2025","Household-survey sampling noise can move the rounded rate by a few tenths"]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-rate-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z","specId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-june-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Headline","idempotencyKey":"static-hash-v1:7fe6697c","createdAt":"2026-06-12T18:59:50Z","modelVersion":"claude-fable-5","promptHash":"static-hash-v1:db79dbbb","toolPolicyHash":"static-hash-v1:3698f6d5","inputBundleHash":"static-hash-v1:ab1c053d","status":"published","runner":{"id":"thesis.recorded-agent-runner","version":"prototype-v1","agent":"thesis.analyst","model":"claude-fable-5"},"input":{"specId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.v20260609","allowedTools":["data.fetch","distribution.validate","history.lookup","news.lookup","official.lookup","policyengine-ledger.lookup","policyengine-ledger.resolve","public.lookup","thesis-log.write"],"targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print","packIds":[]},"output":{"pointEstimate":25,"interval80":{"lower":-90,"upper":170},"distribution":{"format":"numeric_cdf_v1","pointCount":201,"support":{"lower":-262.5,"upper":387.5},"points":[{"value":-262.5,"probability":0},{"value":-259.25,"probability":0.00188405797101},{"value":-256,"probability":0.00376811594203},{"value":-252.75,"probability":0.00565217391304},{"value":-249.5,"probability":0.00753623188406},{"value":-246.25,"probability":0.00942028985507},{"value":-243,"probability":0.0113043478261},{"value":-239.75,"probability":0.0131884057971},{"value":-236.5,"probability":0.0150724637681},{"value":-233.25,"probability":0.0169565217391},{"value":-230,"probability":0.0188405797101},{"value":-226.75,"probability":0.0207246376812},{"value":-223.5,"probability":0.0226086956522},{"value":-220.25,"probability":0.0244927536232},{"value":-217,"probability":0.0263768115942},{"value":-213.75,"probability":0.0282608695652},{"value":-210.5,"probability":0.0301449275362},{"value":-207.25,"probability":0.0320289855072},{"value":-204,"probability":0.0339130434783},{"value":-200.75,"probability":0.0357971014493},{"value":-197.5,"probability":0.0376811594203},{"value":-194.25,"probability":0.0395652173913},{"value":-191,"probability":0.0414492753623},{"value":-187.75,"probability":0.0433333333333},{"value":-184.5,"probability":0.0452173913043},{"value":-181.25,"probability":0.0471014492754},{"value":-178,"probability":0.0489855072464},{"value":-174.75,"probability":0.0508695652174},{"value":-171.5,"probability":0.0527536231884},{"value":-168.25,"probability":0.0546376811594},{"value":-165,"probability":0.0565217391304},{"value":-161.75,"probability":0.0584057971014},{"value":-158.5,"probability":0.0602898550725},{"value":-155.25,"probability":0.0621739130435},{"value":-152,"probability":0.0640579710145},{"value":-148.75,"probability":0.0659420289855},{"value":-145.5,"probability":0.0678260869565},{"value":-142.25,"probability":0.0697101449275},{"value":-139,"probability":0.0715942028986},{"value":-135.75,"probability":0.0734782608696},{"value":-132.5,"probability":0.0753623188406},{"value":-129.25,"probability":0.0772463768116},{"value":-126,"probability":0.0791304347826},{"value":-122.75,"probability":0.0810144927536},{"value":-119.5,"probability":0.0828985507246},{"value":-116.25,"probability":0.0847826086957},{"value":-113,"probability":0.0866666666667},{"value":-109.75,"probability":0.0885507246377},{"value":-106.5,"probability":0.0904347826087},{"value":-103.25,"probability":0.0923188405797},{"value":-100,"probability":0.0942028985507},{"value":-96.75,"probability":0.0960869565217},{"value":-93.5,"probability":0.0979710144928},{"value":-90.25,"probability":0.0998550724638},{"value":-87,"probability":0.110434782609},{"value":-83.75,"probability":0.121739130435},{"value":-80.5,"probability":0.133043478261},{"value":-77.25,"probability":0.144347826087},{"value":-74,"probability":0.155652173913},{"value":-70.75,"probability":0.166956521739},{"value":-67.5,"probability":0.178260869565},{"value":-64.25,"probability":0.189565217391},{"value":-61,"probability":0.200869565217},{"value":-57.75,"probability":0.212173913043},{"value":-54.5,"probability":0.22347826087},{"value":-51.25,"probability":0.234782608696},{"value":-48,"probability":0.246086956522},{"value":-44.75,"probability":0.257391304348},{"value":-41.5,"probability":0.268695652174},{"value":-38.25,"probability":0.28},{"value":-35,"probability":0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is a structurally low-deficit month because quarterly estimated taxes arrive ~June 15. Excluding the 2020-2021 pandemic, the last six Junes (2018,2019,2022,2023,2024,2025) ranged from a $228B deficit to a $27B surplus, mean ~ -$73B deficit, median ~ -$71B deficit (sign converted: deficit positive ~ +71 to +73).","FY2026 is running better than FY2025: cumulative deficit ~9% ($118B) lower through May, receipts +$174B YoY (CRFB). Since Jun2025 was already a +$27B surplus, a similarly strong receipts month in Jun2026 argues for an outcome near balance to a small deficit, modestly worse than 2025 only if outlays (interest/entitlements, +$56B YoY) dominate.","Base rate for the deficit-positive figure: recent Junes cluster ~ -$30B (surplus) to +$230B (deficit), with most mass in the +$0B to +$90B deficit range once pandemic years are dropped. The unconditional centre is a small-to-moderate deficit; a surplus (like 2025) is plausible but not modal across the full sample.","June-to-June dispersion (ex-pandemic) is large: the six clean Junes have a population stdev of roughly $80-90B around their mean. Calendar shifts (benefit-payment timing when month-ends fall on weekends) routinely move a single month by $50-100B, so the 80% band must be wide (~+/-$110-130B).","Outside [-90, +170] if: (a) a benefit-payment calendar shift or weak quarterly receipts produces a large deficit >$170B (cf. Jun2023 +$228B); or (b) an exceptionally strong receipts month plus tariff revenue yields a surplus larger than ~$90B. The Middle East shock is roughly fiscal-neutral month-to-month here.","Anchor on the ex-pandemic June mean (~+$73B deficit) but shade toward near-balance given FY2026's stronger receipts and the 2025 surplus precedent -> point +$25B deficit. 80% CI = +25 +/- ~$120-130B, slightly asymmetric (surpluses bounded near -$90B, deficit tail to +$170B) -> [-90, 170].","Published forecast: point 25, 80% interval [-90, 170]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:56f89b88","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED MTSDS133FMS CSV.","result":"Fetched FRED MTSDS133FMS CSV. Extracted historical JUNE values ($B): Jun2025 +27.0 surplus, Jun2024 -66.0, Jun2023 -227.8, Jun2022 -88.8, Jun2021 -174.2, Jun2020 -864.1 (COVID), Jun2019 -8.5, Jun2018 -74.9 (FRED sign: negative=deficit).","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:71c7361b","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:946d9024","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.2","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Validated the release-date rule against the just-released May MTS: May-2026 deficit -$292.6B (FRED) / ~$293B (CRFB) was published 2026-06-10, which is exactly the 8th workday of June 2026.","result":"Validated the release-date rule against the just-released May MTS: May-2026 deficit -$292.6B (FRED) / ~$293B (CRFB) was published 2026-06-10, which is exactly the 8th workday of June 2026. Applying the same rule to July (with July 3 the observed Independence Day holiday) gives the June MTS release on 2026-07-13.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:c65a742c","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:3e41f0f8","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["June carries large quarterly estimated tax payments (individual + corporate) due ~June 15, which sharply shrink the monthly deficit or create a surplus.","FY2026 cumulative deficit is running ~9% ($118B) below FY2025 through May, with receipts up $174B YoY (individual/payroll/customs).","June 15 2026 falls on a Monday, so quarterly payments land in the month on schedule (no calendar shift).","Higher interest costs and entitlement spending keep outlays elevated, partly offsetting the receipt surge.","Tariff/customs revenue is elevated in FY2026, adding to June receipts."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print"},"qualityGates":[{"name":"prediction_id_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"resolution_source_defined","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_numeric_cdf_v1_201_points","status":"passed"},{"name":"distribution_monotone","status":"passed"},{"name":"allowed_tools_declared","status":"passed"},{"name":"public_trace_present","status":"passed"},{"name":"ledger_target_ref_declared_when_available","status":"passed"}]},{"schemaVersion":"thesis_prediction_run_v1","runId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-35-38Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-35-38z","specId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-june-2026","agentId":"agent.thesis-analyst","runLabel":"Thesis analyst fast run","runDescription":"Validated live Codex-backed thesis.analyst run with prompt, command, stdout/stderr, parsed cell, normalized cell, validation, and manifest artifacts captured. 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for the June 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement deficit","Resolver is the first official Bureau of the Fiscal Service Monthly Treasury Statement print for June 2026, using the monthly deficit/surplus in Table 1 and treating deficits as positive USD billions.","Base-rate step: the most relevant reference class is recent June MTS prints because June contains quarterly estimated tax payments and has strong seasonality. The recent June deficits of 27, 66, and 228 billion imply a wide but positive-deficit center; the two most recent years point closer to 50 billion than to the 2023 outlier.","I start with a recent-June base of about (27 + 66) / 2 = 46.5 billion, add roughly 20 billion for higher interest and entitlement outlays, add 10 billion for tariff-refund and policy noise, and round to a 72 billion point. The 80% interval is set wide at -35 to 210 billion to cover a possible June surplus from strong receipts and a 2023-like high-deficit outlier if payment timing or refunds raise outlays.","Counter-consideration: elevated tariff receipts and June tax collections could produce a small surplus, especially if refunds are not concentrated in June, which is why the lower bound is negative despite the point being a deficit.","Published forecast: point 72, 80% interval [-35, 210]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:fb9c736e","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-17T02-35-38Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-17t02-35-38z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the Treasury Fiscal Data release calendar page for the release-calendar source used to verify the official schedule surface.","result":"Fetched official Fiscal Data release-calendar page showing Release Calendar, copyright 2026, and the statement that it shows estimated dates and times for upcoming data releases; 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for June 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement deficit","Resolver: use the first official U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement for June 2026, Table 1 total deficit/surplus, converted from $ millions to $ billions, with deficits positive and surpluses negative.","Base-rate: recent June deficits are volatile because corporate tax collections and payment-date shifts matter. The 2022-2025 June outcomes were 88.842, 227.768, 65.965, and -27.010 billion, giving a simple four-year average near 88.9 billion and a three-year average near 88.2 billion, but the 2024 and 2025 June figures were held down by June 1 weekend payment acceleration into May.","Counter-consideration: if June receipts remain strong and tariff revenues are not fully offset by refunds, the deficit could land near the low end or even close to balance; however, June 1, 2026 is a Monday, so the payment-shift suppression visible in 2024 and 2025 should not repeat.","Start from a recent-June base rate around 90 billion. Add roughly 55 billion for normal June benefit and Medicare/HHS payments not shifted into May, add about 25 billion for higher interest and entitlement growth, and subtract about 15 billion for still-elevated customs/tariff receipts net of refunds: 90 + 55 + 25 - 15 = 155 billion. Set an 80% interval of 20 to 310 billion to cover tax-payment and refund volatility.","Published forecast: point 155, 80% interval [20, 310]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:9c5cc900","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-08-15Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-08-15z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the Bureau of the Fiscal Service Monthly Treasury Statement landing page and current-issue links.","result":"The official MTS page says the statement covers receipts, outlays, surplus or deficit, and means of financing; it also says data moved to FiscalData on 2025-11-25 and the MTS page was last updated 2026-01-15.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:5feaf875","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:84fec39e","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-08-15Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-08-15z.tool.3","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the June 2025 official MTS PDF and read Table 1 plus highlights.","result":"June 2025 receipts were 526.445 billion, outlays were 499.435 billion, and the deficit/surplus was -27.010 billion; FYTD receipts were 4008.146 billion, FYTD outlays were 5345.518 billion, and FYTD deficit was 1337.372 billion.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:7fe844e9","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:3dcc7b3b","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-08-15Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-08-15z.tool.4","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the June 2024 official MTS PDF and read Table 1.","result":"June 2024 receipts were 466.255 billion, outlays were 532.220 billion, and the deficit was 65.965 billion; June 2023 receipts were 418.317 billion, outlays were 646.085 billion, and the deficit was 227.768 billion.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:32e65d23","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:b057ad3f","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-08-15Z.us-mts-deficit-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-08-15z.tool.5","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Opened the June 2022 official MTS PDF and read Table 1 and the summary chart.","result":"June 2022 receipts were 460.761 billion, outlays were 549.603 billion, and the deficit was 88.842 billion; FYTD deficit through June 2022 was 515.067 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stdev of headline MoM over the last 24 months = 0.189pp. This is elevated by the recent oil-shock spike; a typical pre-shock month was ~0.1pp stdev. Using ~0.20-0.24pp as the 1-sigma scale, the 80% band (z=1.28) is roughly point +/- ~0.27pp.","Trailing-3 mean = +0.66%, but the sequence is monotonically decelerating (0.87 -> 0.64 -> 0.47). Linear extrapolation of the deceleration points to roughly +0.35-0.40% for June as the initial energy spike's monthly contribution fades while levels stay high.","Base rate (pre-shock 12-month run-rate, mid-2025): headline MoM clustered around +0.2-0.3%. The oil shock has lifted the conditional mean above that; June should sit between the shock-elevated recent prints and the calmer base, i.e. ~+0.3-0.5%.","Outside [0.1, 0.7] if: a renewed oil spike (escalation) or a large shelter/airfare jump pushes the print to +0.8%+; or, conversely, an abrupt energy pullback (ceasefire, falling gasoline) drops it toward +0.1% or below. Headline is the most energy-sensitive of the four CPI/labor cells, so its band is the widest.","Decelerating energy contribution + firm core floor + PPI pipeline pressure -> point +0.4%. 80% CI = +0.4 +/- ~0.27 -> [0.1, 0.7].","Published forecast: point 0.4, 80% interval [0.1, 0.7]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:3a779bfa","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED CPIAUCSL CSV.","result":"Fetched FRED CPIAUCSL CSV. Index latest 2026-05 = 333.979. Computed MoM%: Feb +0.267, Mar +0.865, Apr +0.640, May +0.473. The May FRED MoM (+0.473%) rounds to +0.5%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:90a0122f","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:71f95740","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.1","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Verified the May first print independently: BLS reported all-items CPI-U +0.5% MoM SA for May 2026 (also confirmed via the CNBC May-2026 CPI summary; +4.2% YoY).","result":"Verified the May first print independently: BLS reported all-items CPI-U +0.5% MoM SA for May 2026 (also confirmed via the CNBC May-2026 CPI summary; +4.2% YoY). FRED's +0.473% and BLS's +0.5% agree, validating the series for forecasting June.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:62241991","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:8f06ea75","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true},{"toolCallId":"run.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.5","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Pipeline check: May PPI final demand +1.1% MoM (energy +10.7%, gasoline +23.4%) signals ongoing energy pass-through, arguing against a fast collapse to the +0.2% base.","result":"Pipeline check: May PPI final demand +1.1% MoM (energy +10.7%, gasoline +23.4%) signals ongoing energy pass-through, arguing against a fast collapse to the +0.2% base. This supports a centre near +0.4% rather than +0.3%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:2e521f2b","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:6e6be57c","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Middle East conflict (4th month) keeps energy prices elevated; energy accounted for >60% of the May all-items increase.","But the monthly energy increments are moderating (Mar +10.9%, Apr +3.8%, May +3.9% energy), so the headline MoM is decelerating (0.87 -> 0.64 -> 0.47).","Core inflation running steadier near +0.2-0.3% provides a floor under the headline.","PPI final demand surged +1.1% in May (energy/gasoline), signalling continued pipeline pressure into June."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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This is a data-release target, not a later revised time-series value.","Base-rate/reference-class: recent one-month headline CPI prints before the target were 0.2, 0.3, 0.9, 0.6, and 0.5. Their simple average is 0.5, but the median is also 0.5 and the latest core reading of 0.2 suggests headline pressure is being pulled up by volatile energy rather than a broad acceleration.","Counter-consideration: if the energy shock persists into June, gasoline and energy could keep headline CPI near the recent 0.5-0.6 pace or higher; if energy retraces or core softness dominates, the rounded print could fall toward 0.2-0.3.","Use a reference-class center near 0.5, shade down by 0.1 because May core CPI was 0.2 and some mean reversion is likely after March 0.9, April 0.6, and May 0.5. Set pointEstimate = 0.4. 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stdev of core MoM over the last 24 months = 0.083pp — much tighter than headline (0.189). Using ~0.08-0.10pp as 1-sigma, the 80% band (z=1.28) is roughly point +/- ~0.11pp, i.e. about one rounding step either side.","Trailing-3 mean = +0.26%, trailing-6 mean = +0.25%. No trend; the series mean-reverts to roughly +0.25%. May's +0.2% is at the low end of the recent oscillation, so a small uptick toward +0.3% is as likely as a repeat +0.2%.","Base rate over the last 12 months: core MoM has averaged ~+0.25% and ranged 0.19-0.38%. The modal rounded outcome is +0.3% (months like Jan 0.30, Apr 0.38 round to 0.3-0.4; Feb/Mar/May round to 0.2). +0.3 and +0.2 split most of the probability.","Outside [0.1, 0.4] if: a sharp services re-acceleration (shelter, medical, insurance) or oil pass-through prints +0.5%; or an unusually soft month (goods deflation, OER softening) prints +0.0-0.1% and the lower bound is breached. Core's tight history makes both tails thin.","Mean-reversion to ~+0.25% plus a slight pass-through tilt -> point +0.3%. 80% CI = roughly +0.3 +/- one rounding step -> [0.1, 0.4] (asymmetric: capped near 0.4 by tight history, floor 0.1).","Published forecast: point 0.3, 80% interval [0.1, 0.4]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:c23fb933","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026.2026-06-12T18-59-50Z.tool.0","tool":"data.fetch","call":"Fetched FRED CPILFESL CSV.","result":"Fetched FRED CPILFESL CSV. Index latest 2026-05 = 336.121. Computed MoM%: Feb +0.216, Mar +0.196, Apr +0.376, May +0.208. 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But airfares/transport can add a tenth; combined with the +0.25% mean this nudges the centre to +0.3% rather than +0.2%.","allowedTool":true,"requestHash":"static-hash-v1:36a8f088","responseHash":"static-hash-v1:b0df9f00","provider":"recorded-public-trace","status":"succeeded","costUsd":null,"influencedFinalForecast":true}],"drivers":["Core excludes energy directly, so it is far less exposed to the oil shock than headline.","Indirect pass-through (transport, airfares, energy-intensive services/goods) provides modest upward pressure.","Shelter disinflation continues to anchor core near the low-0.3% area.","Recent core prints have oscillated 0.20-0.38% with no clear acceleration."]},"resolution":{"status":"pending","resolutionRef":"resolution.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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for June 2026 US core CPI month-over-month first print","The resolver is the BLS first print for CPI-U all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted percent change from the preceding month, for reference month June 2026.","Base-rate step: the recent rounded BLS core monthly sequence for Jan-May 2026 is 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, with a mean of 0.26 and a median of 0.2; adding the FRED exact index changes keeps the center close to a rounded 0.2 to 0.3 print.","I center the forecast at 0.28 percent exact monthly growth, which rounds to a BLS-style 0.3 percent print. A practical 80 percent interval of 0.1 to 0.5 covers a downside soft-core month and an upside repeat of April-style firmness plus rounding risk.","Counter-consideration: the May release notes headline inflation was being lifted by energy, while the core row was only 0.2 percent; because energy is excluded from the resolver, the energy shock is not enough by itself to push core above 0.3, but second-round transportation or services effects keep upside risk in the interval.","Published forecast: point 0.3, 80% interval [0.1, 0.5]."],"publicTraceMetadata":{"redactionStatus":"public_only","traceHash":"static-hash-v1:4a0e8aab","publiclyReproducibleEnough":true},"toolCalls":[{"toolCallId":"run.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026.2026-06-21T15-11-07Z.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026-thesis-analyst-fast-2026-06-21t15-11-07z.tool.2","tool":"official.lookup","call":"Checked the BLS CPI release calendar for the June 2026 reference month.","result":"BLS schedule lists June 2026 CPI release on Jul. 14, 2026 at 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credit.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for December 2027 in the CMS monthly enrollment report, in millions of people, using the first report that includes all-state December data.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.spm-poverty-rate-2025","specVersionId":"spec.spm-poverty-rate-2025.v20260609","predictionId":"spm-poverty-rate-2025","forecastSlug":"spm-poverty-rate-2025","targetFactRef":"census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the official Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025, as published in the Census Poverty in the United States report expected in September 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"unemployment-insurance-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or Department of Labor fiscal-year table that reports UI benefits.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ssi-federal-payments-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ssi-federal-payments-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ssi-federal-payments-fy2027","forecastSlug":"ssi-federal-payments-fy2027","targetFactRef":"ssa.ssi.federal_payments.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal SSI benefit payments for FY2027, excluding state supplements, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports SSI federal payments.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"medicaid-federal-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid.federal_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal Medicaid outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or CMS fiscal-year table that reports federal Medicaid payments.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ctc-recipient-children-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-recipient-children-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"ctc-recipient-children-ty2026","forecastSlug":"ctc-recipient-children-ty2026","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the number of qualifying children claimed for the federal Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in millions, using the first IRS Statistics of Income table that reports CTC child counts or the closest directly comparable official count.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"housing-choice-voucher-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"hud.hcv.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal tenant-based rental assistance outlays for the Housing Choice Voucher program for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official HUD or Treasury table that separately identifies the program.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027","forecastSlug":"payroll-tax-receipts-fy2027","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total federal social insurance and retirement receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"oasdi-benefit-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to OASDI benefit payments for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026","forecastSlug":"aotc-refundable-outlays-ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays for TY2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS SOI or Treasury table that separately identifies the refundable AOTC amount.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","forecastSlug":"wic-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.average_monthly_participation.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly WIC participation for FY2027, in millions of participants, using the first USDA FNS annual WIC participation and costs table that reports FY2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27","specVersionId":"spec.national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27.v20260609","predictionId":"national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27","forecastSlug":"national-school-lunch-participation-sy2026-27","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.nslp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average daily participation in the National School Lunch Program for school year 2026-27, in millions of students, using the first USDA FNS annual child nutrition table that reports the school-year total.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027","specVersionId":"spec.aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027","forecastSlug":"aca-exchange-plan-selections-oep-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.aca.exchange_qhp_selections.oep_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total Qualified Health Plan selections across HealthCare.gov and state-based exchanges during the 2027 Open Enrollment Period, in millions, using the first final CMS Open Enrollment report for plan year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"medicare-benefit-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicare.benefit_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal Medicare benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury, CMS, or CBO fiscal-year table that reports Medicare benefit payments.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"tanf-federal-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.tanf.federal_outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal TANF outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official HHS ACF or Treasury table that reports federal TANF fiscal-year spending.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ccdf-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ccdf-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"ccdf-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.ccdf.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total Child Care and Development Fund expenditures for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official ACF-696-based HHS ACF expenditure data release for FY2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027","forecastSlug":"estate-gift-tax-receipts-fy2027","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.estate_gift_tax_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal estate and gift tax receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027.v20260609","predictionId":"eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027","forecastSlug":"eitc-claimant-returns-ty2027","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the number of TY2027 individual income tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2027 individual returns.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027","forecastSlug":"corporate-income-tax-receipts-fy2027","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.corporation_income_tax_receipts.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total corporation income tax receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","forecastSlug":"snap-average-monthly-participation-fy2027","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.average_monthly_persons.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP persons for FY2027, in millions, using the first USDA FNS national annual participation table that includes all months of fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.pell-grant-recipients-ay2027","specVersionId":"spec.pell-grant-recipients-ay2027.v20260609","predictionId":"pell-grant-recipients-ay2027","forecastSlug":"pell-grant-recipients-ay2027","targetFactRef":"ed.pell.recipients.award_year_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to unduplicated Federal Pell Grant recipients for award year 2027-28, in millions, using the first official Department of Education Pell Grant program data table or budget justification table with final award-year recipients.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027","forecastSlug":"head-start-funded-enrollment-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.head_start.funded_enrollment.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to funded enrollment for Head Start and Early Head Start in FY2027, in millions of slots, using the first ACF Office of Head Start Program Information Report or annual fact sheet covering fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027","forecastSlug":"tanf-average-monthly-families-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the fiscal-year average number of families receiving TANF or Separate State Program Maintenance-of-Effort cash assistance in FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF TANF caseload table covering all FY2027 months.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027","forecastSlug":"ccdf-average-monthly-children-served-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.ccdf.average_monthly_children_served.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the average monthly adjusted number of children served by CCDF in FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF-800/ACF-801 CCDF data table covering fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.liheap-households-assisted-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.liheap-households-assisted-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"liheap-households-assisted-fy2027","forecastSlug":"liheap-households-assisted-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.liheap.households_assisted.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total households receiving at least one type of LIHEAP assistance for FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF LIHEAP Household Report or LIHEAP data warehouse release covering fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27","specVersionId":"spec.school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27.v20260609","predictionId":"school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27","forecastSlug":"school-breakfast-participation-sy2026-27","targetFactRef":"fns.sbp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average daily School Breakfast Program participation for school year 2026-27, in millions, using USDA FNS participation data with summer months excluded where FNS publishes a school-year table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ssi-recipients-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.ssi-recipients-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ssi-recipients-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"ssi-recipients-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"ssa.ssi.recipients.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total SSI recipients in December 2027, in millions, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot or SSI Monthly Statistics release for December 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027","forecastSlug":"snap-average-monthly-households-fy2027","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.average_monthly_households.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP households for FY2027, in millions, using the first USDA FNS national annual participation table that includes all months of fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"medicaid-chip-child-enrollment-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Medicaid child and CHIP enrollment for December 2027, in millions, using the first CMS monthly Medicaid and CHIP enrollment report or data.Medicaid.gov release that reports the child-enrollment series for that month.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"housing-choice-voucher-households-leased-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"hud.hcv.households_leased.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Housing Choice Voucher households leased for December 2027, in millions, using the HUD HCV Data Dashboard or the first official HUD utilization table that reports national leased households for that month.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"school-breakfast-federal-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"fns.sbp.federal_cost.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to federal School Breakfast Program cost for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS child nutrition program table that reports fiscal-year federal cost.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027","forecastSlug":"child-support-distributed-collections-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.ocss.distributed_collections.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total distributed child support collections for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first ACF Office of Child Support Services preliminary or annual report covering fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.pell-grant-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.pell-grant-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"pell-grant-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"pell-grant-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"ed.pell.outlays.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Federal Pell Grant program outlays or obligations for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Department of Education Federal Student Aid annual report, budget justification, or Pell Grant program data table that reports fiscal-year spending.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.wic-federal-outlays-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.wic-federal-outlays-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"wic-federal-outlays-fy2027","forecastSlug":"wic-federal-outlays-fy2027","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.federal_cost.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total federal WIC program cost for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS WIC participation and cost table that reports fiscal-year total cost.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.liheap-federal-funding-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.liheap-federal-funding-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"liheap-federal-funding-fy2027","forecastSlug":"liheap-federal-funding-fy2027","targetFactRef":"acf.liheap.federal_funding.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total federal LIHEAP funding made available for FY2027, including regular block grant and contingency or supplemental funding, in billions of nominal dollars, using ACF Office of Community Services funding tables or LIHEAP Clearinghouse funding history.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"oasdi-beneficiaries-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.beneficiaries.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total OASDI beneficiaries in current-payment status for December 2027, in millions, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot or comparable SSA monthly beneficiary data.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","forecastSlug":"dependent-care-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the federal child and dependent care credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income individual income tax table that reports this credit.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","forecastSlug":"premium-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the premium tax credit or reconciling advance premium tax credits on Form 8962, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2026 individual returns.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","forecastSlug":"additional-child-tax-credit-claimant-returns-ty2026","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.additional_child_tax_credit_returns.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the refundable Additional Child Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2026 individual returns.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026","specVersionId":"spec.charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026.v20260609","predictionId":"charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026","forecastSlug":"charitable-contributions-deduction-ty2026","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.itemized_charitable_contributions.ty2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total charitable contributions deducted on TY2026 itemized individual income tax returns, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income Schedule A or itemized-deductions table covering TY2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"medicare-total-enrollment-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicare.total_beneficiaries.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total Medicare beneficiaries for December 2027, in millions, using the first CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment dataset or Medicare Enrollment Report that includes national December 2027 enrollment.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027","specVersionId":"spec.retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027","forecastSlug":"retired-worker-average-benefit-dec-2027","targetFactRef":"ssa.oasdi.retired_worker_average_benefit.2027-12","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the average monthly benefit for retired workers in current-payment status for December 2027, in nominal dollars, as reported in the Social Security Administration Monthly Statistical Snapshot.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027","forecastSlug":"ctc-refundable-amount-ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the maximum refundable federal Child Tax Credit amount per qualifying child for TY2027, using IRC section 24 and the first IRS Form 1040 instructions or inflation-adjusted tax parameter release that identifies the refundable amount.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027.v20260609","predictionId":"eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027","forecastSlug":"eitc-max-credit-three-children-ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the maximum EITC for taxpayers with three or more qualifying children for TY2027, using the IRS annual inflation-adjusted tax parameter release or equivalent official IRS table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027","forecastSlug":"snap-average-benefit-per-person-fy2027","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.average_benefit_per_person.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly SNAP benefits per person for FY2027, in nominal dollars, using the first USDA FNS national SNAP annual table that reports benefits per person for all months of fiscal year 2027.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027","forecastSlug":"ptc-average-subsidy-per-enrollee-fy2027","targetFactRef":"cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly premium tax credit subsidy per subsidized marketplace enrollee for FY2027, computed from official CMS enrollment and Treasury/CMS PTC outlay tables when both are available.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06","specVersionId":"spec.initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06.v20260609","predictionId":"initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06","forecastSlug":"initial-jobless-claims-week-ending-2026-06-06","targetFactRef":"dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted initial claims count for the week ending June 6, 2026 in the Department of Labor weekly claims release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026","forecastSlug":"nonfarm-payrolls-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the BLS Employment Situation release. Benchmark revisions and later monthly revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print.v20260609","predictionId":"unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print","forecastSlug":"unemployment-rate-may-2026-first-print","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026. Later population-control or seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cpi-headline-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cpi-headline-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cpi-headline-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"cpi-headline-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U for May 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.retail-sales-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.retail-sales-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"retail-sales-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"retail-sales-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first advance estimate of the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in total retail and food services sales for May 2026. Use the rounded headline value; if only levels are available, compute from Census adv44X72 seasonally adjusted levels in the same release and round to one decimal. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.core-pce-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.core-pce-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"core-pce-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"core-pce-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published month-over-month percent change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-participation-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-participation-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-participation-april-2026","forecastSlug":"snap-participation-april-2026","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the April 2026 average monthly SNAP persons count in USDA FNS national program data. If USDA updates the monthly table, the first version available by August 31, 2026 governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026","forecastSlug":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-april-2026","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for April 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS posts preliminary and updated versions, the first updated national file available by September 30, 2026 governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"average-hourly-earnings-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published percent change from April to May 2026 in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the BLS Employment Situation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.core-cpi-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.core-cpi-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"core-cpi-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"core-cpi-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy in the BLS CPI release. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.jolts-job-openings-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.jolts-job-openings-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"jolts-job-openings-may-2026","forecastSlug":"jolts-job-openings-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted total nonfarm job openings estimate for May 2026 in the BLS JOLTS release. Later monthly revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027","specVersionId":"spec.snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027","forecastSlug":"snap-max-allotment-four-person-fy2027","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first USDA FNS FY2027 SNAP COLA table for maximum monthly allotments, using household size 4 in the 48 contiguous states and DC. If USDA later revises the table, the first posted FY2027 table governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027","specVersionId":"spec.hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027","forecastSlug":"hhs-poverty-guideline-family-four-2027","targetFactRef":"hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to ASPE's first posted 2027 poverty guideline table for four-person households in the 48 contiguous states and DC. Later errata do not change the resolved value unless ASPE withdraws the first table before it takes effect.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027","specVersionId":"spec.ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027.v20260609","predictionId":"ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027","forecastSlug":"ctc-maximum-per-child-ty2027","targetFactRef":"irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first official IRS tax year 2027 inflation-adjustment guidance for the IRC section 24 maximum Child Tax Credit per qualifying child. If Congress changes the statutory amount before the guidance takes effect, the first IRS guidance implementing that law governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-participation-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-participation-march-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-participation-march-2026","forecastSlug":"snap-participation-march-2026","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national March 2026 SNAP persons count in the USDA FNS FY2026 National View Summary, using the first table update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.wic-total-participation-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.wic-total-participation-march-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"wic-total-participation-march-2026","forecastSlug":"wic-total-participation-march-2026","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national March 2026 WIC total participants value in USDA FNS monthly program data, using the first table update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026","forecastSlug":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-march-2026","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to CMS preliminary March 2026 total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for the 50 states and DC, using the first monthly enrollment update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.irs-total-refunds-october-2026","specVersionId":"spec.irs-total-refunds-october-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"irs-total-refunds-october-2026","forecastSlug":"irs-total-refunds-october-2026","targetFactRef":"irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to IRS Filing Season Statistics total amount refunded for current-year individual returns in the first October 2026 snapshot. If IRS publishes multiple October snapshots, the earliest October table governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published ONS monthly real GDP growth estimate for April 2026 in the GDP monthly estimate release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published ONS CPI 12-month rate for May 2026 in the consumer price inflation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-unemployment-rate-feb-apr-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for February to April 2026 in the UK Labour Market June 2026 release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-unemployment-rate-apr-jun-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for April to June 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-unemployment-rate-jul-sep-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for July to September 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-unemployment-rate-oct-dec-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted ONS LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over for October to December 2026 in the Employment in the UK or UK labour market bulletin expected in early 2027. The published one-decimal rate is the resolution value; later revisions do not change it.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-paye-payrolled-employees-may-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published early estimate of seasonally adjusted UK payrolled employees for May 2026 in the ONS/HMRC PAYE RTI release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-retail-sales-volume-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published ONS monthly percent change in the quantity bought in all retailing for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-may-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first official ONS value for May 2026 in Public Sector Finances time series J5II, transformed as -J5II / 1000 so borrowing is positive in GBP billions. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc","specVersionId":"spec.uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc","forecastSlug":"uk-bank-rate-june-2026-mpc","targetFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the Bank Rate stated in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and minutes published on June 18, 2026. If the Bank publishes a correction the same day before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-unemployment-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted Canada unemployment rate in the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-employment-change-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-employment-change-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-employment-change-may-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-employment-change-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly change in seasonally adjusted total employment for Canada in the May 2026 Labour Force Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published all-items CPI 12-month change for Canada in the May 2026 Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions or table updates do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-monthly-gdp-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first official Statistics Canada real GDP by industry monthly percent change for April 2026. The May 29 advance estimate is treated as input, not the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc","specVersionId":"spec.canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc","forecastSlug":"canada-overnight-rate-june-2026-boc","targetFactRef":"bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the target for the overnight rate stated in the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on June 10, 2026. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"australia-unemployment-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Labour Force, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-employment-change-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-employment-change-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-employment-change-may-2026","forecastSlug":"australia-employment-change-may-2026","targetFactRef":"abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly change in seasonally adjusted employment in Labour Force, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"australia-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published all-groups annual CPI movement in Consumer Price Index, Australia for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba","forecastSlug":"australia-cash-rate-june-2026-rba","targetFactRef":"rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the RBA cash rate target shown in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target update on June 16, 2026. If the RBA posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026","forecastSlug":"euro-area-ecb-deposit-facility-rate-june-2026","targetFactRef":"ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the deposit facility rate stated in the ECB monetary policy decisions published on June 11, 2026. If the ECB posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final","forecastSlug":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-may-2026-final","targetFactRef":"eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first final all-items HICP annual inflation rate for the euro area for May 2026. The flash estimate is input context; later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash","forecastSlug":"euro-area-hicp-annual-rate-june-2026-flash","targetFactRef":"eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first flash estimate of the euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026. The later final HICP release does not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"euro-area-unemployment-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted euro area unemployment rate for May 2026 in Eurostat's monthly unemployment release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026","forecastSlug":"japan-boj-policy-rate-june-2026","targetFactRef":"boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the guideline for money market operations stated in the Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy released after the June 15-16, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. If the Bank posts a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"japan-cpi-annual-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published national all-items CPI annual rate for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim","specVersionId":"spec.japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim","forecastSlug":"japan-tokyo-cpi-annual-rate-june-2026-prelim","targetFactRef":"statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published Ku-area of Tokyo preliminary all-items CPI annual inflation rate for June 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026","forecastSlug":"japan-unemployment-rate-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Labour Force Survey basic tabulation. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-ppi-final-demand-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published BLS seasonally adjusted percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 for the PPI final demand index. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-industrial-production-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the Federal Reserve G.17 total industrial production index for May 2026. Later revisions and the autumn 2026 annual revision do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-capacity-utilization-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-capacity-utilization-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-capacity-utilization-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-capacity-utilization-may-2026","targetFactRef":"fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for total industry capacity utilization in the Federal Reserve G.17 release, expressed as percent of capacity and seasonally adjusted. Later revisions and the autumn 2026 annual revision do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-import-price-index-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published BLS monthly percent change in the all-import price index for May 2026. Later revisions within the three-month revision window do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-housing-starts-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-housing-starts-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-housing-starts-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-housing-starts-may-2026","targetFactRef":"census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted annual rate of privately owned housing starts for May 2026 in the New Residential Construction release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-total-business-inventories-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-total-business-inventories-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-total-business-inventories-april-2026","forecastSlug":"us-total-business-inventories-april-2026","targetFactRef":"census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published preliminary April 2026 value for adjusted total business inventories in Census Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Table 1, expressed in billions of dollars. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-government-social-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-government-social-benefits-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for government social benefits to persons in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 17, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-social-security-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-social-security-benefits-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-social-security-benefits-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Social Security in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 18, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-medicare-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-medicare-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-medicare-benefits-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-medicare-benefits-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Medicare in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 19, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-medicaid-benefits-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for Medicaid in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 20, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-wages-and-salaries-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for wages and salaries in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 3, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-personal-current-taxes-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for less personal current taxes in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 26, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-disposable-personal-income-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published May 2026 value for disposable personal income in BEA NIPA Table 2.6, line 27, converted from millions to billions of current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-pce-price-index-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published BEA monthly percent change in the PCE price index for May 2026 in the Personal Income and Outlays release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate","specVersionId":"spec.us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate.v20260609","predictionId":"us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate","forecastSlug":"us-real-gdp-q1-2026-third-estimate","targetFactRef":"bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published BEA third estimate of real GDP percent change for Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later annual-update or benchmark revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-mts-deficit-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-mts-deficit-may-2026","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the May 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-business-financial-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-computer-math-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-healthcare-support-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-office-admin-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-production-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-production-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-production-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-production-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-transport-material-moving-employment-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-business-financial-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Business and financial operations occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-computer-math-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Computer and mathematical occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-healthcare-support-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Healthcare support occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-office-admin-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Office and administrative support occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-production-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-production-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-production-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-production-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Production occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026","forecastSlug":"cps-transport-material-moving-employment-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published June 2026 Employment Situation household-survey Table A-19 count of employed people, not seasonally adjusted, for Transportation and material moving occupations, in thousands. Later revisions, database refreshes, or monthly table replacements do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first July 2, 2026 table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-business-financial-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-business-financial-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-business-financial-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-business-financial-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-computer-math-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-computer-math-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-computer-math-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-computer-math-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-healthcare-support-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-office-admin-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-office-admin-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-office-admin-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-office-admin-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-production-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-production-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-production-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-production-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034","specVersionId":"spec.bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034.v20260609","predictionId":"bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034","forecastSlug":"bls-transport-material-moving-employment-2034","targetFactRef":"bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first BLS Employment Projections/National Employment Matrix table that uses 2034 as the base year, for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations, measured as employment in thousands. The published 2024-2034 projection is only a comparison forecast; the resolved value is the first official 2034 base-year employment estimate in that later BLS projection vintage or successor table.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-business-financial-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-computer-math-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-healthcare-support-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-office-admin-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-production-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-production-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-production-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-production-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 51-0000 Production Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026","forecastSlug":"oews-transport-material-moving-median-wage-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national OEWS annual median wage estimate for SOC 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, in nominal dollars. This uses the A_MEDIAN/annual median wage field for the national, cross-industry row. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-retail-sales-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Retail trade release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-wholesale-sales-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted wholesale sales excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain in Statistics Canada's April 2026 Wholesale trade release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-ei-regular-beneficiaries-april-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted number of regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries for Canada in Statistics Canada's April 2026 Employment Insurance release, expressed in thousands. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-building-permit-value-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the seasonally adjusted total value of Canadian building permits for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Building permits release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026","forecastSlug":"euro-area-industrial-production-growth-april-2026","targetFactRef":"eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first estimate of the calendar and seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in total euro area industrial production for April 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026","forecastSlug":"euro-area-retail-trade-volume-growth-may-2026","targetFactRef":"eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in euro area retail trade volume for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026","forecastSlug":"australia-dwelling-approvals-growth-may-2026","targetFactRef":"abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted total dwelling units approved for May 2026 in ABS Building Approvals, Australia. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026","forecastSlug":"japan-real-household-spending-growth-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first published real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026.v20260609","predictionId":"individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026","forecastSlug":"individual-income-tax-refunds-fy2026","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total individual income tax refunds for fiscal year 2026 in the final Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2026. If Treasury revises the table after the initial final MTS release, the first final fiscal-year table governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025","specVersionId":"spec.net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025.v20260609","predictionId":"net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025","forecastSlug":"net-premium-tax-credit-reconciliation-ty2025","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.net_premium_tax_credit_reconciliation.ty2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the IRS SOI tax-year 2025 estimate for net premium tax credit reconciliation on individual income tax returns, defined as additional net PTC claimed minus excess advance PTC repaid. If IRS publishes separate line-item and ACA-statistics estimates, the ACA-statistics table governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025","specVersionId":"spec.savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025.v20260609","predictionId":"savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025","forecastSlug":"savers-credit-claimant-returns-ty2025","targetFactRef":"irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the IRS SOI tax-year 2025 estimate of the number of returns claiming the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit. If IRS reports both preliminary and complete-report values, the complete-report line-item estimate governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026","forecastSlug":"medicaid-chip-enrollment-dec-2026","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for December 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS publishes preliminary and updated files, the first updated national file posted by June 30, 2027 governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025","specVersionId":"spec.direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025.v20260609","predictionId":"direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025","forecastSlug":"direct-purchase-health-coverage-rate-2025","targetFactRef":"census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the direct-purchase health insurance coverage rate for all people in the Census health insurance report covering calendar year 2025. The headline direct-purchase category governs, including marketplace and non-marketplace nongroup coverage.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027","specVersionId":"spec.marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027","forecastSlug":"marketplace-new-consumers-oep-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the CMS national count of new consumers selecting Marketplace plans during the 2027 open enrollment period. If CMS reports HealthCare.gov and state-based marketplace totals separately, the national total combining both governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law","specVersionId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law.v20260609","predictionId":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law","forecastSlug":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-current-law","targetFactRef":"cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the final U.S. infant mortality rate for calendar year 2026, in infant deaths per 1,000 live births, from CDC/NCHS NVSS linked birth/infant death records, conditional on no materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for TY2026. If such a policy is in effect, this baseline scenario is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable","specVersionId":"spec.infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable.v20260609","predictionId":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable","forecastSlug":"infant-mortality-rate-2026-ctc-3000-refundable","targetFactRef":"cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.ctc_3000_refundable.final","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the final U.S. infant mortality rate for calendar year 2026, in infant deaths per 1,000 live births, from CDC/NCHS NVSS linked birth/infant death records, conditional on a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for TY2026. If the policy is not in effect, this scenario is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026","forecastSlug":"snap-cumulative-benefit-redemptions-fy2026","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.snap.benefit_redemptions.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the fiscal year 2026 total SNAP benefit redemption amount in USDA FNS national-level annual summary data. If USDA reports issuance and redemption separately, the redemption amount governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.wic-child-participation-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.wic-child-participation-fy2026.v20260609","predictionId":"wic-child-participation-fy2026","forecastSlug":"wic-child-participation-fy2026","targetFactRef":"usda.fns.wic.child_participation.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the average monthly number of child participants in WIC during fiscal year 2026 in USDA FNS program data. Infant and pregnant/postpartum/breastfeeding participant categories are excluded.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026","specVersionId":"spec.ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026.v20260609","predictionId":"ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026","forecastSlug":"ccdf-average-monthly-payment-per-child-fy2026","targetFactRef":"hhs.acf.ccdf.average_monthly_payment_per_child.fy2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to average monthly CCDF subsidy payments per child served in fiscal year 2026, computed from ACF CCDF administrative data as total subsidy payments divided by average monthly children served and months. If ACF publishes the metric directly, the direct metric governs.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025","specVersionId":"spec.snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025","forecastSlug":"snap-payment-error-rate-fy2025","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released the FY 2024 rate on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around June 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026","specVersionId":"spec.ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026","forecastSlug":"ca-medicaid-procedural-disenrollment-share-aug-2026","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to beneficiaries disenrolled for procedural reasons divided by total beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal, California, August 2026 reporting period, original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c, computed when CMS first publishes the row (expected roughly three to four months after the period).","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ak","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alaska's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-al","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-al.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-al","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-al","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alabama's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ar","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arkansas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-az","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-az.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-az","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-az","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arizona's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ca","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to California's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-co","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-co.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-co","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-co","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Colorado's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ct","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Connecticut's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-dc","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-de","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-de.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-de","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-de","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Delaware's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-fl","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Florida's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ga","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Georgia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-gu","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Guam's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-hi","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Hawaii's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ia","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Iowa's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-id","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-id.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-id","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-id","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Idaho's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-il","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-il.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-il","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-il","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Illinois's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-in","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-in.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-in","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-in","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Indiana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ks","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kansas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ky","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kentucky's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-la","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-la.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-la","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-la","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Louisiana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ma","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-md","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-md.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-md","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-md","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maryland's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-me","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-me.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-me","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-me","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maine's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mi","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Michigan's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mn","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Minnesota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mo","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Missouri's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ms","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Mississippi's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-mt","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Montana's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nc","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Carolina's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nd","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Dakota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ne","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nebraska's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nh","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nj","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Jersey's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nm","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Mexico's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-nv","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nevada's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ny","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New York's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-oh","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Ohio's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ok","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-or","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-or.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-or","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-or","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oregon's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-pa","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ri","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sc","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Carolina's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-sd","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Dakota's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tn","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Tennessee's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-tx","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Texas's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-ut","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Utah's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-va","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-va.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-va","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-va","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Virginia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vi","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Virgin Islands's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-vt","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Vermont's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wa","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Washington's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wi","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wv","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to West Virginia's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2025-wy","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wyoming's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-ak","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ak.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ak","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-ak","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ak.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alaska's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-al","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-al.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-al","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-al","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.al.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alabama's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-ar","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ar.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ar","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-ar","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ar.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arkansas's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-az","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-az.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-az","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-az","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.az.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arizona's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-ca","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ca.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ca","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-ca","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ca.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to California's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-co","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-co.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-co","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-co","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.co.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Colorado's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-ct","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-ct.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-ct","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-ct","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine 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2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-wa","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wa.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wa","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-wa","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wa.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Washington's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-wi","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wi.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wi","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-wi","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wi.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-wv","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wv.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wv","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-wv","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wv.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to West Virginia's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-apt-fy2025-wy","specVersionId":"spec.snap-apt-fy2025-wy.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-apt-fy2025-wy","forecastSlug":"snap-apt-fy2025-wy","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wy.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wyoming's application processing timeliness rate for fiscal year 2025 as first published on the FNS SNAP QC timeliness page (share of initial applications processed within the 30-day standard, 7-day expedited), expected in 2026.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ak","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alaska's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-al","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alabama's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ar","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arkansas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-az","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arizona's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ca","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to California's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-co","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Colorado's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ct","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Connecticut's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-dc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-de","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Delaware's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-fl","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Florida's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ga","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Georgia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-hi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Hawaii's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ia","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Iowa's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-id","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Idaho's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-il","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Illinois's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-in","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Indiana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ks","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kansas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ky","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kentucky's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-la","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Louisiana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ma","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-md","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.md.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maryland's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-me","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.me.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maine's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Michigan's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mn","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Minnesota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mo","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mo.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Missouri's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ms","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ms.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Mississippi's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-mt","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Montana's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Carolina's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nd","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Dakota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ne","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ne.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nebraska's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nh","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nj","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nj.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Jersey's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nm","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nm.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Mexico's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-nv","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nevada's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ny","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ny.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New York's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-oh","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.oh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Ohio's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ok","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ok.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-or","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.or.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oregon's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-pa","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.pa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ri","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ri.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Carolina's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-sd","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Dakota's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tn","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Tennessee's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-tx","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tx.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Texas's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-ut","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ut.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Utah's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-va","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.va.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Virginia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-vt","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.vt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Vermont's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wa","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Washington's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wv","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to West Virginia's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy","forecastSlug":"medicaid-ex-parte-share-aug-2026-wy","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wy.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wyoming's ex parte renewal share for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ak","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ak.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alaska's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-al","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.al.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Alabama's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ar","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ar.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arkansas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-az","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.az.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Arizona's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-co","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.co.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Colorado's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ct","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ct.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Connecticut's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-dc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.dc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to District of Columbia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-de","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.de.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Delaware's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-fl","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.fl.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Florida's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ga","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ga.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Georgia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-hi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.hi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Hawaii's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ia","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ia.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Iowa's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-id","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.id.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Idaho's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-il","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.il.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Illinois's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-in","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.in.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Indiana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ks","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ks.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kansas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ky","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ky.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Kentucky's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-la","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.la.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Louisiana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ma","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ma.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Massachusetts's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-md","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-md.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-md","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-md","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maryland's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-me","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-me.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-me","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-me","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.me.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Maine's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Michigan's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mn","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Minnesota's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mo","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mo.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Missouri's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ms","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ms.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Mississippi's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-mt","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Montana's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Carolina's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nd.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nd","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nd","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to North Dakota's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ne","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ne.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ne","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ne","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ne.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nebraska's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nh.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nh","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nh","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Hampshire's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nj","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nj.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Jersey's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nm","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nm.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New Mexico's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-nv","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Nevada's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ny","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ny.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to New York's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-oh","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.oh.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Ohio's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ok","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ok.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ok","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ok","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ok.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oklahoma's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-or","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.or.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Oregon's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-pa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-pa.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-pa","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-pa","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.pa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Pennsylvania's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ri","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ri.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Rhode Island's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sc","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sc.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Carolina's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-sd","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sd.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to South Dakota's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tn","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tn.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Tennessee's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-tx","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tx.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Texas's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-ut","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ut.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Utah's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-va","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.va.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Virginia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-vt","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.vt.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Vermont's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wa","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wa.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Washington's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wi","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wi.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wisconsin's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wv","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wv.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to West Virginia's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy","forecastSlug":"medicaid-procedural-share-aug-2026-wy","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wy.aug_2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Wyoming's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025","specVersionId":"spec.snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025","forecastSlug":"snap-cost-share-threshold-states-fy2025","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the count of jurisdictions with FY 2025 combined payment error rates at or above 6.0 percent in the official FNS release, divided by the 53 jurisdictions reported. The release is expected around mid-2026; if it has not been published by 2027-03-31, the cell resolves whenever it is.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-in-effect","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. The conditioning event is a policy state, checkable against the federal bill tracker.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed","specVersionId":"spec.snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed.v20260609","predictionId":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed","forecastSlug":"snap-error-rate-fy2026-cost-share-repealed","targetFactRef":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of the cost-share pair resolves; the gap between the two arms (9.4 vs 10.3) is the forecasted effect of the policy on payment accuracy.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","forecastSlug":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-holds","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_holds","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted and no nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","forecastSlug":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027-work-req-deadline-delayed","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_delayed","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period (expected roughly four months later). Conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted or nationwide court stay issued on or before 2027-03-31 delays the community-engagement compliance deadline beyond 2027.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of this pair resolves; the gap between the arms (33 vs 15 minutes) is the forecasted hold-time cost of the policy state.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","forecastSlug":"medicaid-work-req-deadline-in-effect-2027q1","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to 100 if, as of 2027-03-31, no federal statute has been enacted and no court order of nationwide effect is in force that delays the community-engagement compliance deadline of the 2025 reconciliation law beyond calendar 2027; resolves to 0 otherwise. State-specific good-faith extensions granted by the Secretary do not trigger resolution to 0. The event is machine-checkable against the federal bill tracker and, once the provision is encoded, the rules corpus.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027","specVersionId":"spec.medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027.v20260609","predictionId":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027","forecastSlug":"medicaid-call-wait-mar-2027","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period. Unconditional: this cell resolves regardless of the policy state.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026","specVersionId":"spec.ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026","forecastSlug":"ca-procedural-share-given-high-ex-parte-aug-2026","targetFactRef":"cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to California's procedural disenrollments divided by total disenrollments at renewal for the August 2026 reporting period (original submission row, CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c), conditional on the event 'California ex parte renewals divided by total completed renewals is at least 80.0 percent in the same row.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the cell is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.industrial-production-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.industrial-production-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"industrial-production-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"industrial-production-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the total Industrial Production index seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for May 2026, as printed in the first G.17 release on 2026-06-15 at 9:15 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place. FRED series INDPRO (first vintage).","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.housing-starts-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.housing-starts-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"housing-starts-may-2026","forecastSlug":"housing-starts-may-2026","targetFactRef":"us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the total privately-owned housing starts for May 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in millions (e.g. 1500 thousand -> 1.50 million), as printed in the 2026-06-16 8:30 AM ET New Residential Construction release (first/preliminary estimate). FRED series HOUST/1000.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","forecastSlug":"uk-cpih-yoy-may-2026","targetFactRef":"ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published ONS CPIH (CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs) 12-month inflation rate for May 2026 in the Consumer price inflation, UK bulletin, headline table, rounded to one decimal place as published. Later revisions do not change the resolved value. This forecast targets CPIH specifically, distinct from the all-items CPI measure.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.fomc-rate-upper-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.fomc-rate-upper-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"fomc-rate-upper-june-2026","forecastSlug":"fomc-rate-upper-june-2026","targetFactRef":"us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the upper limit of the target range for the federal funds rate as stated in the FOMC statement / Implementation Note issued at 2:00 PM ET on 2026-06-17, in percent (e.g. 3.75 if range is 3.50-3.75%). FRED series DFEDTARU reflects the same value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.boe-bank-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.boe-bank-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"boe-bank-rate-june-2026","forecastSlug":"boe-bank-rate-june-2026","targetFactRef":"boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the Bank Rate level (percent) stated in the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary published on 18 June 2026, immediately following the MPC vote. If the Bank issues a same-day correction before market close, the corrected value governs.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.initial-claims-week-2026-06-13","specVersionId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-13.v20260609","predictionId":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-13","forecastSlug":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-13","targetFactRef":"us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the seasonally adjusted ADVANCE figure for initial claims for the week ending 2026-06-13, in thousands, as printed in the DOL UI Weekly Claims news release on 2026-06-18 at 8:30 AM ET. FRED series ICSA (advance vintage), value/1000.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","forecastSlug":"japan-core-cpi-yoy-may-2026","targetFactRef":"estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published national 'all items less fresh food' (core) CPI year-over-year rate for the May 2026 reference month in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release, rounded to one decimal as published. This targets the ex-fresh-food core measure specifically, distinct from the all-items headline. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"linked"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026","forecastSlug":"canada-cpi-yoy-may-2026","targetFactRef":"statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published all-items CPI 12-month percentage change for Canada (not seasonally adjusted) in the Statistics Canada The Daily release for the May 2026 reference month, rounded to one decimal as published. Later revisions or table updates do not change the resolved value. Note: the May 2026 CPI is the first release computed on updated basket weights (effective 15 June 2026).","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026","forecastSlug":"australia-cpi-indicator-may-2026","targetFactRef":"abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published all-groups CPI annual (12-month) movement in the ABS Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator release for the May 2026 reference month, rounded to one decimal as published. Later revisions do not change the resolved value. This targets the all-groups headline monthly indicator (distinct from the trimmed-mean underlying measure).","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20","specVersionId":"spec.initial-claims-week-2026-06-20.v20260609","predictionId":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-20","forecastSlug":"initial-claims-week-2026-06-20","targetFactRef":"us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the seasonally adjusted ADVANCE figure for initial claims for the week ending 2026-06-20, in thousands, as printed in the DOL UI Weekly Claims news release on 2026-06-25 at 8:30 AM ET. FRED series ICSA (advance vintage), value/1000.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-core-pce-mom-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","forecastSlug":"us-core-pce-mom-may-2026","targetFactRef":"us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the month-over-month percent change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy (core PCE), seasonally adjusted, for May 2026, as printed in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release on 2026-06-25 at 8:30 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place at BEA's reported precision (the headline table reports to 0.1; FRED PCEPILFE supports 0.01). FRED series PCEPILFE (first vintage).","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.jolts-openings-may-2026","specVersionId":"spec.jolts-openings-may-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"jolts-openings-may-2026","forecastSlug":"jolts-openings-may-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted level of total nonfarm job openings for May 2026 (in millions, rounded as BLS reports) stated in the BLS JOLTS news release scheduled for June 30, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.euro-flash-hicp-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","forecastSlug":"euro-flash-hicp-june-2026","targetFactRef":"eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to Eurostat's first flash estimate of the euro area (all-items) HICP annual inflation rate for June 2026, published 1 July 2026, rounded to one decimal as released. The later final HICP figure does not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","forecastSlug":"nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June 2026 stated in the BLS Employment Situation news release scheduled for July 2, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.unemployment-rate-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.unemployment-rate-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"unemployment-rate-june-2026","forecastSlug":"unemployment-rate-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate (U-3) for June 2026 stated in the BLS Employment Situation news release scheduled for July 2, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-mts-deficit-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-mts-deficit-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-mts-deficit-june-2026","forecastSlug":"us-mts-deficit-june-2026","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the June 2026 current-month deficit/surplus amount in Monthly Treasury Statement Table 1, divided by 1 billion dollars, with deficits positive and surpluses negative. The first published MTS table governs. Release expected on the 8th workday of July (2026-07-13).","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","forecastSlug":"us-cpi-u-mom-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the all-items CPI-U for June 2026 stated in the BLS Consumer Price Index news release scheduled for July 14, 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","specVersionId":"spec.us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","forecastSlug":"us-core-cpi-mom-june-2026","targetFactRef":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the first-published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy (core) for June 2026 stated in the BLS Consumer Price Index news release scheduled for July 14, 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026","specVersionId":"spec.child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026.v20260609","predictionId":"child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026","forecastSlug":"child-poverty-2028-given-tcja-extended-q2-2026","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for 2028, conditional on the event 'a TCJA extension package matching at least the House-passed framework on CTC and EITC is enacted by 2026-06-30.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable","specVersionId":"spec.child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable.v20260609","predictionId":"child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable","forecastSlug":"child-poverty-2026-given-ctc-3000-refundable","targetFactRef":"census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for calendar year 2026, conditional on a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable CTC being in effect for TY2026. If the policy is not in effect, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed","specVersionId":"spec.iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed.v20260609","predictionId":"iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed","forecastSlug":"iit-revenue-fy2028-given-salt-fully-repealed","targetFactRef":"treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2028 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2028, conditional on the SALT deduction cap under IRC §164(b)(6) being fully eliminated for TY2026 and later. If the cap is not fully eliminated, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.","status":"pending"},{"resolutionRef":"resolution.uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire","specVersionId":"spec.uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire.v20260609","predictionId":"uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire","forecastSlug":"uninsured-2028-given-ept-expire","targetFactRef":"census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028","factLedger":"PolicyEngine Ledger","resolverRule":"Resolves to the uninsured rate among people under 65 as reported by the Census ASEC for calendar year 2028, conditional on no restoration of the enhanced ACA premium tax credits (above the original ACA-baseline subsidies) through 2028. If subsidies are restored at any point, the forecast cell is marked 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