thesisPrototype
calibrationprediction pack · v0.1.0

ASEC release calibration

Adds Census ASEC sampling, vintage, and release-table uncertainty to income and poverty forecasts.

2
runs
2
targets
1
agents
1
versions

Purpose

Add Census ASEC sampling, vintage, and release-table uncertainty to income and poverty forecasts.

Mechanism

  • Identify whether the target resolves in the annual ASEC income or poverty release.
  • Add release-specific uncertainty around the modeled central estimate.
  • Keep the interval aligned with the headline table and first-publication resolution rule.

Checks

  • The run names the Census ASEC release as the resolution surface.
  • The trace separates model uncertainty from release-table uncertainty.
  • The interval accounts for sampling noise even when the central model is stable.

Inputs

  • Census ASEC release schedule
  • Historical headline table volatility
  • Modeled central estimate from the target-specific pack set

Limitations

  • Does not yet use official replicate-weight variance formulas.
  • Release-vintage uncertainty is approximated from historical headline behavior.

Versions

v0.1.0asec-release-calibration@0.1.02 runs

Runs using this pack

ASEC income pack set, Census official-poverty pack set
Official poverty rate, 2025
brier-1.packedJun 14, 2026Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs
pack_set.census_official_poverty_2025.v1pack-enabled
10.3%
-0.3% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run that bridges PolicyEngine cash income to the Census official poverty release.

80% interval 9.7% to 11.0%
Median household income, 2025
brier-1.packedJun 14, 2026Brier-1 · ASEC income packs
pack_set.asec_income_2025.v1pack-enabled
$80,800
+$700.00 vs no-pack

Pack-enabled median-income forecast using wage, employment, household-composition, and ASEC release checks.

80% interval $78,900 to $82,900