Thesis Institute · policy futures
Forecasts on every consequential cell of government data
Three coupled forecast types fall out of the integrated stack: government data points on published statistics, policy state forecasts on formal settings and encoded parameters, and conditional forecasts on outcomes given policy states. The Almanac shows the target agent workflow: call public data and the PolicyEngine microsim, then publish calibrated uncertainty with an audit trail behind it.
All three forecast types. Showing 384 predictions, sorted by earliest expected resolution.
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI85k
-60k85k220k
actual 172kinside CI
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Unemployment rate, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.3%
4.1%4.3%4.5%
actual 4.3%inside CI
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
+0.0%+0.2%+0.4%
actual +0.3%inside CI
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Canada unemployment rate, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI7.0%
6.7%7.0%7.3%
actual 6.6%outside CI
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Canada employment change, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI-10k
-60k-10k50k
actual 88koutside CI
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
+0.3%+0.5%+0.7%
actual +0.5%inside CI
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
actual +0.2%inside CI
PolicyCanadaAgent runmonthly · next decisionResolved
resolved Jun 2026Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.25%
2.0%2.25%2.25%
actual 2.25%inside CI
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026US federal monthly deficit, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$305B
$240B$305B$380B
actual $292.6Binside CI
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock traceweekly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026
forecast · 80% CI214k
197k214k233k
actual 229kinside CI
PolicyEuro areaAgent runmonthly · next decisionResolved
resolved Jun 2026ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.0%
2.0%2.0%2.25%
actual 2.25%inside CI
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
-0.2%+0.5%+1.3%
actual +1.1%inside CI
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026Canada building permit value growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI-2.0%
-16.0%-2.0%+13.0%
actual -7.6%inside CI
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next releaseResolved
resolved Jun 2026UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI-0.1%
-0.5%-0.1%+0.3%
actual -0.1%inside CI
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US industrial production growth, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-0.5%+0.2%+0.9%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US capacity utilization, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI76.3%
75.6%76.3%76.9%
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-1.0%+0.2%+1.4%
Government dataEuro areaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.0%
-1.1%+0.0%+1.2%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change
forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.5%+0.1%+0.7%
PolicyAustraliaAgent runmonthly · next decision
resolves Jun 2026RBA cash rate target, June 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.35%
4.35%4.35%4.6%
PolicyJapanAgent runmonthly · next decision
resolves Jun 2026Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026
forecast · 80% CI0.75%
0.75%0.75%1.0%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US import price inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.6%
-0.3%+0.6%+1.5%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US housing starts, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.2M1.4M1.6M
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions)
forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.2M1.4M1.6M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-0.5%+0.2%+0.9%
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.9%
2.6%2.9%3.2%
Government dataEuro areaAgent runmonthly · final release
resolves Jun 2026Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final
forecast · 80% CI3.2%
3.1%3.2%3.3%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US total business inventories, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI$2,725B
$2,716.5B$2,725B$2,732.5B
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent run
resolves Jun 2026UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI3.0%
2.7%3.0%3.3%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound
forecast · 80% CI3.75%
3.5%3.75%3.75%
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026
forecast · 80% CI5.1%
4.8%5.1%5.4%
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI30.2M
30M30.2M30.3M
PolicyUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next decision
resolves Jun 2026Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC
forecast · 80% CI3.75%
3.75%3.75%4.0%
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI552k
536k552k570k
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent run
resolves Jun 2026Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision
forecast · 80% CI3.75%
3.75%3.75%4.0%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands)
forecast · 80% CI222k
202k222k242k
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
-0.6%+0.5%+1.6%
Government dataUnited KingdomAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI£18.5B
£13B£18.5B£24B
Government dataJapanAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI1.5%
1.1%1.5%1.9%
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Canada retail sales growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.6%
-0.2%+0.6%+1.4%
Government dataJapanAgent run
resolves Jun 2026Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI1.4%
1.0%1.4%1.8%
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.7%
2.3%2.7%3.1%
Government dataCanadaAgent run
resolves Jun 2026Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.8%
2.3%2.8%3.3%
Government dataAustraliaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.1%
3.7%4.1%4.5%
Government dataAustraliaAgent run
resolves Jun 2026Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.1%
3.5%4.1%4.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month
forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
+0.1%+0.2%+0.4%
Government dataAustraliaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Australia unemployment rate, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.5%
4.2%4.5%4.8%
Government dataAustraliaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Australia employment change, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI15k
-45k15k75k
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US government social benefits, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$4,997B
$4,955B$4,997B$5,045B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US Social Security benefits, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$1,650B
$1,638B$1,650B$1,662B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US Medicare benefits, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$1,332B
$1,318B$1,332B$1,346B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US Medicaid benefits, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$1,041B
$1,029B$1,041B$1,057B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US wages and salaries, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$13,350B
$13,300B$13,350B$13,405B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US personal current taxes, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$3,266.8B
$3,247.5B$3,266.8B$3,301B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US disposable personal income, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI$23,512B
$23,445B$23,512B$23,615B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026US PCE price index inflation, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.6%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent runquarterly · third estimate
resolves Jun 2026US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate
forecast · 80% CI+1.5%
+1.1%+1.5%+1.9%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands)
forecast · 80% CI220k
198k220k242k
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change
forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
Government dataJapanAgent runmonthly · preliminary release
resolves Jun 2026Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary
forecast · 80% CI1.6%
1.2%1.6%2.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026JOLTS job openings, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI7,450k
6,800k7,450k8,150k
Government dataCanadaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.4%
+0.1%+0.4%+0.7%
Government dataJapanAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jun 2026Japan unemployment rate, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.5%
2.3%2.5%2.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.2%
9.3%10.2%11.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI15.6%
8.6%15.6%22.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.5%
6.9%8.5%10.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.4%
8.1%9.4%10.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.1%
5.8%8.1%10.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.2%
8.0%10.2%12.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.2%
8.5%10.2%11.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.4%
8.8%10.4%12.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI16.5%
14.1%16.5%18.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.6%
3.4%9.6%15.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI15.6%
13.3%15.6%17.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI16.4%
13.6%16.4%19.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI7.5%
2.4%7.5%12.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI3.0%
0.3%3.0%10.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI6.2%
4.8%6.2%7.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI3.5%
2.2%3.5%4.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI11.8%
10.0%11.8%13.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.1%
7.7%9.1%10.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.3%
7.3%9.3%11.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.4%
7.5%9.4%11.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI6.5%
5.2%6.5%7.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI15.0%
11.9%15.0%18.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI12.2%
8.5%12.2%15.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.3%
6.7%9.3%11.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.1%
7.5%9.1%10.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.5%
7.2%9.5%11.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.0%
7.4%9.0%10.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.7%
9.4%10.7%12.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.5%
7.0%9.5%11.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.2%
8.9%10.2%11.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI7.4%
5.6%7.4%9.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.0%
3.2%5.0%6.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI6.2%
2.7%6.2%9.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.8%
1.8%8.8%15.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI14.5%
13.2%14.5%15.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.6%
4.2%5.6%7.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI14.3%
12.6%14.3%16.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.4%
7.4%9.4%11.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.8%
9.5%10.8%12.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI13.2%
10.9%13.2%15.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI9.1%
5.2%9.1%13.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI12.1%
10.8%12.1%13.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.8%
0.3%5.8%12.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI3.1%
1.8%3.1%4.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.5%
6.0%8.5%11.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.6%
6.8%8.6%10.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.8%
4.4%5.8%7.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI11.8%
9.9%11.8%13.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI1.7%
0.3%1.7%6.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.4%
3.6%5.4%7.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.7%
4.4%5.7%7.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI4.1%
2.8%4.1%5.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI8.9%
7.1%8.9%10.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2026Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI5.0%
3.7%5.0%6.3%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jun 2026JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print)
forecast · 80% CI7.4M
6.9M7.4M7.9M
Government dataEuro areaAgent runmonthly · flash release
resolves Jul 2026Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash
forecast · 80% CI3.1%
2.8%3.1%3.4%
Government dataAustraliaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+2.0%
-12.0%+2.0%+18.0%
Government dataEuro areaAgent run
resolves Jul 2026Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026
forecast · 80% CI3.2%
2.8%3.2%3.6%
Government dataEuro areaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI6.3%
6.2%6.3%6.4%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2026Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print)
forecast · 80% CI140k
35k140k245k
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2026Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print)
forecast · 80% CI4.3%
4.1%4.3%4.5%
Government dataEuro areaAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.7%+0.1%+0.9%
Government dataJapanAgent runmonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026Japan real household spending growth, May 2026
forecast · 80% CI-0.3%
-2.0%-0.3%+1.4%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2026U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)
forecast · 80% CI$25B
$-90B$25B$170B
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2026CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
forecast · 80% CI+0.4%
+0.1%+0.4%+0.7%
Government dataUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2026Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026SNAP participation, March 2026
forecast · 80% CI37.1M
36.4M37.1M37.8M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026WIC total participation, March 2026
forecast · 80% CI6.6M
6.5M6.6M6.8M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · next release
resolves Jul 2026Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026
forecast · 80% CI74.4M
74M74.4M74.8M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · +3 months
resolves Aug 2026SNAP participation, Apr 2026
forecast · 80% CI40.8M
39.5M40.8M42.2M
Government dataUnited StatesLive API path
resolves Sep 2026SPM child poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI13.1%
12.0%13.1%14.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Official poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.4%
9.8%10.4%11.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Median household income, 2025
forecast · 80% CI$80,600
$78,600$80,600$82,900
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026SPM poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI12.7%
12.0%12.7%13.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.6%
9.9%10.6%11.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · +3 months
resolves Sep 2026Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026
forecast · 80% CI79.1M
76.2M79.1M82.6M
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock traceannual · threshold
resolves Sep 2026SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,022/mo
$1,005/mo$1,022/mo$1,045/mo
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Alaska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI64.0%
55.0%64.0%73.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Alabama SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI93.0%
90.5%93.0%95.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Arkansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI60.7%
55.6%60.7%65.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Arizona SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI90.3%
87.8%90.3%92.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026California SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI80.1%
77.1%80.1%83.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Colorado SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI64.9%
58.2%64.9%71.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Connecticut SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI88.1%
83.5%88.1%92.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026District of Columbia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI59.7%
52.8%59.7%66.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Delaware SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI71.1%
62.1%71.1%80.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Florida SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI63.4%
60.9%63.4%65.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Georgia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI64.4%
56.0%64.4%72.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Guam SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI48.1%
40.1%48.1%56.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Hawaii SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI67.3%
61.6%67.3%73.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Iowa SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI61.1%
52.1%61.1%70.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Idaho SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI89.3%
83.2%89.3%95.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Illinois SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI93.3%
90.1%93.3%96.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Indiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI81.0%
78.1%81.0%83.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Kansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI82.6%
80.4%82.6%84.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Kentucky SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI91.2%
82.6%91.2%99.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Louisiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI85.4%
79.3%85.4%91.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Massachusetts SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI85.7%
83.5%85.7%87.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Maryland SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI93.3%
87.8%93.3%98.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Maine SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI58.1%
49.1%58.1%67.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Michigan SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI76.0%
73.2%76.0%78.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Minnesota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI79.1%
74.0%79.1%84.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Missouri SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI76.6%
70.5%76.6%82.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Mississippi SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI78.6%
74.5%78.6%82.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Montana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI64.9%
58.4%64.9%71.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026North Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI82.5%
76.2%82.5%88.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026North Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI58.6%
54.4%58.6%62.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Nebraska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI88.7%
85.5%88.7%91.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026New Hampshire SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI89.0%
85.8%89.0%92.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026New Jersey SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI76.7%
72.2%76.7%81.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026New Mexico SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI48.6%
39.6%48.6%57.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Nevada SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI93.3%
91.1%93.3%95.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026New York SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI88.4%
79.4%88.4%97.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Ohio SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI92.1%
89.9%92.1%94.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Oklahoma SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI88.8%
86.4%88.8%91.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Oregon SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI69.8%
63.2%69.8%76.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Pennsylvania SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI90.2%
87.3%90.2%93.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Rhode Island SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI94.9%
91.1%94.9%98.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026South Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI74.5%
71.5%74.5%77.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026South Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI85.3%
81.5%85.3%89.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Tennessee SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI35.0%
30.0%35.0%44.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Texas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI73.7%
67.6%73.7%79.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Utah SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI88.3%
82.5%88.3%94.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI82.3%
77.8%82.3%86.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Vermont SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI83.1%
77.8%83.1%88.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Washington SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI89.6%
85.6%89.6%93.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Wisconsin SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI95.5%
92.6%95.5%98.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026West Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI74.2%
68.3%74.2%80.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Wyoming SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI90.3%
87.3%90.3%93.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025
forecast · 80% CI79.2%
69.8%79.2%86.8%
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,010
$975.00$1,010$1,045
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026Individual income tax refunds, FY2026
forecast · 80% CI$486B
$455B$486B$525B
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$8,500
$8,050$8,500$9,100
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock traceannual · threshold
resolves Oct 2026Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$2,300
$2,200$2,300$2,500
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock tracemonthly · +3 months
resolves Oct 2026IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026
forecast · 80% CI$370B
$360B$370B$382B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI93.0%
88.5%93.0%95.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI53.4%
40.5%53.4%66.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI57.1%
51.9%57.1%62.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI89.8%
85.6%89.8%93.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI93.3%
85.9%93.3%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI88.9%
78.6%88.9%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI74.8%
68.5%74.8%81.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI96.8%
93.0%96.8%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
91.6%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI75.8%
61.8%75.8%89.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI42.2%
37.0%42.2%47.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI83.6%
78.2%83.6%88.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI63.2%
51.1%63.2%75.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI78.3%
64.3%78.3%92.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
84.0%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI81.7%
73.4%81.7%90.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI62.8%
48.8%62.8%76.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI56.4%
49.1%56.4%63.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI92.2%
84.6%92.2%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI66.7%
52.7%66.7%80.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.4%
63.5%77.4%91.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Maryland Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI76.0%
68.7%76.0%83.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Maine Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
91.6%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Michigan Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI80.9%
74.6%80.9%87.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Minnesota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI86.5%
82.1%86.5%90.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Missouri Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI92.2%
85.9%92.2%98.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Mississippi Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI60.5%
47.7%60.5%73.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Montana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI84.6%
79.5%84.6%89.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026North Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
95.5%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026North Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.0%
68.5%77.0%85.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Nebraska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
84.0%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Hampshire Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI67.6%
53.6%67.6%81.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Jersey Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI78.4%
64.4%78.4%92.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Mexico Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI66.4%
52.4%66.4%80.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Nevada Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI96.1%
82.1%96.1%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New York Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI26.2%
12.2%26.2%40.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Ohio Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI69.6%
55.6%69.6%83.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Oklahoma Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI82.2%
74.0%82.2%90.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Oregon Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI81.3%
74.9%81.3%87.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Pennsylvania Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI43.8%
30.3%43.8%57.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Rhode Island Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI92.4%
84.9%92.4%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026South Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI89.2%
81.8%89.2%96.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026South Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI75.3%
64.1%75.3%86.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Tennessee Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI69.0%
61.2%69.0%76.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Texas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI13.5%
10.1%13.5%17.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Utah Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI72.1%
61.7%72.1%82.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI60.0%
46.0%60.0%74.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Vermont Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI88.8%
76.3%88.8%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Washington Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI93.9%
91.2%93.9%96.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Wisconsin Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI59.4%
51.0%59.4%67.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026West Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI81.9%
75.3%81.9%88.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Wyoming Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.7%
63.7%77.7%91.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Alaska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI84.1%
70.1%84.1%98.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Alabama Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI23.4%
18.6%23.4%28.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Arkansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.0%
69.0%77.0%85.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Arizona Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI81.9%
69.2%81.9%94.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Colorado Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI68.9%
54.9%68.9%82.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Connecticut Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI43.9%
29.9%43.9%57.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026District of Columbia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
92.9%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Delaware Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI75.0%
63.6%75.0%86.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Florida Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI62.2%
48.2%62.2%76.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Georgia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI51.0%
44.3%51.0%57.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Hawaii Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI81.0%
74.1%81.0%87.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Iowa Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI72.8%
62.3%72.8%83.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Idaho Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.0%
1.0%2.0%16.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Illinois Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI83.8%
76.4%83.8%91.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Indiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
92.8%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Kansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI39.4%
27.1%39.4%51.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Kentucky Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI74.2%
60.2%74.2%88.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Louisiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI97.8%
83.8%97.8%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Massachusetts Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI49.3%
35.3%49.3%63.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Maryland Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI89.3%
83.5%89.3%95.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Maine Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI91.3%
77.3%91.3%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Michigan Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI92.2%
80.8%92.2%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Minnesota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI87.1%
78.5%87.1%95.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Missouri Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI94.1%
89.8%94.1%98.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Mississippi Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI82.4%
77.1%82.4%87.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Montana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.0%
63.1%77.0%90.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026North Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI59.6%
54.8%59.6%64.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026North Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI85.4%
74.3%85.4%96.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Nebraska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI37.5%
30.9%37.5%44.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Hampshire Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI88.9%
82.0%88.9%95.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Jersey Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI89.2%
75.2%89.2%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New Mexico Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI89.6%
84.6%89.6%94.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Nevada Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI78.7%
68.0%78.7%89.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026New York Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI66.8%
56.8%66.8%76.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Ohio Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI98.0%
88.0%98.0%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Oklahoma Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI92.5%
79.9%92.5%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Oregon Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI65.0%
54.6%65.0%75.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Pennsylvania Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI40.0%
29.1%40.0%50.9%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Rhode Island Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.6%
63.6%77.6%91.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026South Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI22.4%
12.1%22.4%32.6%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026South Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI85.7%
76.1%85.7%95.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Tennessee Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI65.9%
56.6%65.9%75.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Texas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI72.1%
58.1%72.1%86.1%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Utah Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI91.3%
87.0%91.3%95.5%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI87.5%
73.5%87.5%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Vermont Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI93.3%
86.7%93.3%99.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Washington Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI85.5%
80.4%85.5%90.7%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Wisconsin Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI60.2%
50.1%60.2%70.3%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026West Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI83.1%
77.2%83.1%89.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026Wyoming Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
forecast · 80% CI77.5%
64.7%77.5%90.4%
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2026California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80%
forecast · 80% CI94.5%
91.5%94.5%96.5%
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027
forecast · 80% CI$7.25
$7.25$7.25$9.50
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Unemployment rate, December 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.3%
3.9%4.3%4.8%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Labor force participation rate, December 2026
forecast · 80% CI62.4%
61.9%62.4%62.8%
Government dataUnited StatesLive API path
resolves Jan 2027CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.6%
2.1%2.6%3.2%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4)
forecast · 80% CI+1.9%
+0.9%+1.9%+2.8%
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock traceannual · next release
resolves Jan 2027HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027
forecast · 80% CI$33,920
$33,520$33,920$34,480
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027SNAP cumulative redemptions, FY2026
forecast · 80% CI$111.5B
$103B$111.5B$122B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027WIC child participation, FY2026
forecast · 80% CI3.9M
3.6M3.9M4.2M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2027Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027
forecast · 80% CI3.2M
2.4M3.2M4.4M
PolicyUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Mar 2027Probability the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027
forecast · 80% CI89.0%
80.0%89.0%94.0%
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$183/mo
$83/mo$183/mo$250/mo
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027
forecast · 80% CI19.8M
14M19.8M25M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2027Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026
forecast · 80% CI79.4M
75.8M79.4M83.8M
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2027SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect
forecast · 80% CI9.4%
8.2%9.4%10.7%
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2027SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed
forecast · 80% CI10.3%
9.0%10.3%11.7%
ConditionalUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2027Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds
forecast · 80% CI33 min
26 min33 min43 min
ConditionalUnited StatesAgent run
resolves Jul 2027Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed
forecast · 80% CI15 min
12 min15 min18 min
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jul 2027Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional)
forecast · 80% CI29.4 min
19.7 min29.4 min38.4 min
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2027Net PTC reconciliation amount, TY2025
forecast · 80% CI$8.6B
$6.4B$8.6B$11.2B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2027Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025
forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5.3M5.9M6.6M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Median household income, 2026
forecast · 80% CI$81,200
$79,100$81,200$83,400
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026
forecast · 80% CI10.1%
9.2%10.1%11.2%
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC
forecast · 80% CI7.2%
5.8%7.2%9.0%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$2,740
$2,580$2,740$2,910
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,860B
$1,760B$1,860B$1,985B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$45B
$28B$45B$72B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$570B
$430B$570B$730B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$128B
$116B$128B$143B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$94B
$62B$94B$132B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$49B
$32B$49B$78B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027SSI federal payments, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$75B
$68B$75B$84B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$655B
$600B$655B$720B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$36B
$32B$36B$42B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,605B
$1,540B$1,605B$1,685B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,110B
$1,035B$1,110B$1,210B
PolicyUnited StatesLive API path
resolves Dec 2027Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$109.6B
$78.8B$109.6B$140.4B
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$32,000
$16,000$32,000$35,000
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Top individual income tax rate, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI37.0%
37.0%37.0%39.6%
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027SALT deduction cap, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$22,000
$10,000$22,000$80,000
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Refundable CTC amount, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,800
$1,000$1,800$2,500
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027CCDF payment per child, FY2026
forecast · 80% CI$690/mo
$610/mo$690/mo$800/mo
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028SSI recipients, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI7.4M
7.1M7.4M7.7M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI70M
68.8M70M71.4M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI$2,190/mo
$2,110/mo$2,190/mo$2,285/mo
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028WIC average monthly participation, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI6.9M
6.3M6.9M7.6M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27
forecast · 80% CI30.4M
28.8M30.4M32.3M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028TANF federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$17B
$15B$17B$19.5B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$12.5B
$9B$12.5B$17B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI40.6M
37.4M40.6M44.1M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27
forecast · 80% CI15.2M
14M15.2M16.7M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average monthly households, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI21.7M
19.8M21.7M23.8M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$6.7B
$5.8B$6.7B$7.8B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028WIC federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$8.5B
$7.2B$8.5B$10B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$4.1B
$2.4B$4.1B$6.8B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028Medicare total enrollment, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI70.7M
69.2M70.7M72.3M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$232/mo
$216/mo$232/mo$252/mo
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2028Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI36.8M
34.5M36.8M39.4M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027
forecast · 80% CI82M
77M82M88M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI0.8M
0.7M0.8M0.9M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028TANF average monthly families, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI0.7M
0.6M0.7M0.9M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI2.3M
2.2M2.3M2.5M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$34.5B
$28B$34.5B$43B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$690/mo
$560/mo$690/mo$860/mo
PolicyUnited StatesLive API path
resolves Aug 2028CTC outlays under current law, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$60.5B
$52B$60.5B$70B
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028EITC outlays, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$74B
$65B$74B$84B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028Children receiving the CTC, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI48M
45M48M51M
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$6.2B
$4.8B$6.2B$7.8B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2028SPM child poverty rate, 2027
forecast · 80% CI11.8%
10.5%11.8%13.4%
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2028Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed
forecast · 80% CI$2,790
$2,630$2,790$2,960
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC
forecast · 80% CI5.50 per 1,000
5.34 per 1,0005.50 per 1,0005.72 per 1,000
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Infant mortality 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC
forecast · 80% CI5.40 per 1,000
5.16 per 1,0005.40 per 1,0005.66 per 1,000
PolicyUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$38B
$25B$38B$55B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Child support distributed collections, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$27.8B
$25B$27.8B$31B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5M5.9M7M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI10.8M
7.4M10.8M15.2M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI16.2M
13.2M16.2M19.6M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$305B
$245B$305B$375B
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2029Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28
forecast · 80% CI7.2M
6.4M7.2M8.2M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2029CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.1M1.4M1.8M
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026
forecast · 80% CI11.5%
10.3%11.5%12.8%
ConditionalUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire
forecast · 80% CI11.3%
10.2%11.3%12.4%
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI5.1M
3.4M5.1M6.9M
Government dataUnited StatesStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2029EITC claimant returns, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI23.4M
21.6M23.4M25.5M
How forecasts are generated
Every forecast cell is opened by the Thesis Institute analyst agent, which decomposes the question, calls the PolicyEngine microsim against scenarios drawn from encoded statutes and MICROPLEX synthetic populations, checks official public data sources, integrates external baselines (CBO, FOMC SEP, JCT, BLS, Census, ONS, ABS, Statistics Canada), and produces a calibrated distribution. Open each forecast to read the full streaming reasoning.