thesisPrototype

Thesis · policy futures

Forecasts on every consequential cell of government data

Brier analyst agents forecast published government statistics, law-encoded policy parameters, and outcomes conditional on policy states. Each cell carries a calibrated interval and an audit trail of the reasoning behind it.

Prototype status

Live product
Catalog, filters, routes, forecast pages, resolution rules.
Live API paths
CPI-U and two CTC cells stream through api.thesisinstitute.org.
Static mock traces
Most analyst reasoning and seeded estimates are prewritten prototype content.

All three forecast types. Sorted by earliest expected resolution.

Government dataLive API path
resolves Sep 2026

SPM child poverty rate, 2025

forecast · 80% CI13.1%
12.0%13.1%14.4%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026

Official poverty rate, 2025

forecast · 80% CI10.4%
9.8%10.4%11.1%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026

Median household income, 2025

forecast · 80% CI$80,600
$78,600$80,600$82,900
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026

SPM poverty rate, 2025

forecast · 80% CI12.7%
12.0%12.7%13.5%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026

SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$1,010
$975.00$1,010$1,045
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026

Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$8,500
$8,050$8,500$9,100
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027

Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027

forecast · 80% CI$7.25
$7.25$7.25$9.50
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027

Unemployment rate, December 2026

forecast · 80% CI4.3%
3.9%4.3%4.8%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027

Labor force participation rate, December 2026

forecast · 80% CI62.4%
61.9%62.4%62.8%
Government dataLive API path
resolves Jan 2027

CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026

forecast · 80% CI2.6%
2.1%2.6%3.2%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027

Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4)

forecast · 80% CI+1.9%
+0.9%+1.9%+2.8%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027

CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$183/mo
$83/mo$183/mo$250/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027

ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027

forecast · 80% CI19.8M
14M19.8M25M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027

Median household income, 2026

forecast · 80% CI$81,200
$79,100$81,200$83,400
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027

Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026

forecast · 80% CI10.1%
9.2%10.1%11.2%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027

Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC

forecast · 80% CI7.2%
5.8%7.2%9.0%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027

Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$2,740
$2,580$2,740$2,910
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027

Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$1,860B
$1,760B$1,860B$1,985B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027

Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$45B
$28B$45B$72B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027

Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$570B
$430B$570B$730B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$128B
$116B$128B$143B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$94B
$62B$94B$132B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$49B
$32B$49B$78B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

SSI federal payments, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$75B
$68B$75B$84B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$655B
$600B$655B$720B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$36B
$32B$36B$42B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$1,605B
$1,540B$1,605B$1,685B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027

Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$1,110B
$1,035B$1,110B$1,210B
PolicyLive API path
resolves Dec 2027

Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI$109.6B
$78.8B$109.6B$140.4B
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027

Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$32,000
$16,000$32,000$35,000
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027

Top individual income tax rate, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI37.0%
37.0%37.0%39.6%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027

SALT deduction cap, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$22,000
$10,000$22,000$80,000
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027

Refundable CTC amount, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$1,800
$1,000$1,800$2,500
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028

SSI recipients, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI7.4M
7.1M7.4M7.7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028

OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI70M
68.8M70M71.4M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028

Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI$2,190/mo
$2,110/mo$2,190/mo$2,285/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

WIC average monthly participation, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI6.9M
6.3M6.9M7.6M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27

forecast · 80% CI30.4M
28.8M30.4M32.3M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

TANF federal outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$17B
$15B$17B$19.5B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$12.5B
$9B$12.5B$17B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI40.6M
37.4M40.6M44.1M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27

forecast · 80% CI15.2M
14M15.2M16.7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

SNAP average monthly households, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI21.7M
19.8M21.7M23.8M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$6.7B
$5.8B$6.7B$7.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

WIC federal outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$8.5B
$7.2B$8.5B$10B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$4.1B
$2.4B$4.1B$6.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

Medicare total enrollment, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI70.7M
69.2M70.7M72.3M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028

SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$232/mo
$216/mo$232/mo$252/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2028

Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI36.8M
34.5M36.8M39.4M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027

forecast · 80% CI82M
77M82M88M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI0.8M
0.7M0.8M0.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

TANF average monthly families, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI0.7M
0.6M0.7M0.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027

forecast · 80% CI2.3M
2.2M2.3M2.5M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$34.5B
$28B$34.5B$43B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028

ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$690/mo
$560/mo$690/mo$860/mo
PolicyLive API path
resolves Aug 2028

CTC outlays under current law, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI$60.5B
$52B$60.5B$70B
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028

EITC outlays, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI$74B
$65B$74B$84B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028

Children receiving the CTC, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI48M
45M48M51M
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028

Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI$6.2B
$4.8B$6.2B$7.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2028

SPM child poverty rate, 2027

forecast · 80% CI11.8%
10.5%11.8%13.4%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2028

Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed

forecast · 80% CI$2,790
$2,630$2,790$2,960
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI$38B
$25B$38B$55B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Child support distributed collections, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI$27.8B
$25B$27.8B$31B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5M5.9M7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI10.8M
7.4M10.8M15.2M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI16.2M
13.2M16.2M19.6M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028

Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026

forecast · 80% CI$305B
$245B$305B$375B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2029

Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28

forecast · 80% CI7.2M
6.4M7.2M8.2M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2029

CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.1M1.4M1.8M
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029

Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026

forecast · 80% CI11.5%
10.3%11.5%12.8%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029

Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire

forecast · 80% CI11.3%
10.2%11.3%12.4%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029

LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027

forecast · 80% CI5.1M
3.4M5.1M6.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2029

EITC claimant returns, TY2027

forecast · 80% CI23.4M
21.6M23.4M25.5M
How the Almanac works

Open forecasts, scored against reality

01

The catalog

Every consequential cell of government data — published statistics, law-encoded policy parameters, and outcomes conditional on policy states — gets its own forecast cell, with an explicit resolution source and date.

02

The forecast

Brier analyst agents predict each cell with a point estimate, a calibrated interval, and a full audit trail of the reasoning, sources, and key drivers behind it — open by construction.

03

The score

When the official number publishes, every forecast is scored against the record. Calibration is public, per cell and per agent, so the track record is the product.