Thesis Log · prediction records
Thesis Log
Thesis Log records predictions, distributions, trace metadata, resolution events, and scores. Resolved predictions reference facts in the PolicyEngine Ledger. The machine-readable v3 surface is a compact manifest whose hash-verified chunks preserve every full entry, spec, run, and score.
predictions
1125
specs
690
runs
1125
resolved
135
pending
555
scored / coverage
160 · 88%
scoring
Scoreboard
mean nCRPS
n/a
lower is better
mean CRPS
16.7
raw units
mean abs error
20.5
raw units
80% coverage
88%
target: 80%
By agent
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thesis.analyst | 326 | 56 | n/a | 20.4 | 89% |
| brier-1.shadow | 30 | 30 | n/a | 12.0 | 87% |
| US near-term public outcomes agent | 16 | 16 | n/a | 10.7 | 75% |
| Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble | 9 | 9 | n/a | 9.57 | 67% |
| Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble | 8 | 8 | n/a | 0.095 | 100% |
| Global near-term indicator source synthesis | 8 | 8 | n/a | 1.75 | 100% |
| brier-1.packed | 13 | 7 | n/a | 8.46 | 71% |
| UK indicator agent ensemble | 10 | 7 | n/a | 0.53 | 100% |
| scout-2.control | 9 | 7 | n/a | 7.19 | 100% |
| brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy | 6 | 6 | n/a | 129 | 100% |
| thesis.analyst.median3 | 25 | 2 | n/a | 1.67 | 100% |
| thesis.analyst.ladder | 19 | 2 | n/a | 1.33 | 100% |
| Three-agent CPI ensemble | 2 | 2 | n/a | 0.048 | 100% |
| prototype seed | 313 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS OEWS current table | 132 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-wage-pressure | 132 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 | 23 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS Employment Projections | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-automation-scenarios | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-projection | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Occupation automation exposure source synthesis | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-defense-public-data | 5 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-1.control | 3 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By model
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5.5 | 224 | 45 | n/a | 24.2 | 89% |
| gpt-5 | 39 | 37 | n/a | 11.3 | 84% |
| Codex recorded agent runs | 27 | 24 | n/a | 3.77 | 88% |
| Codex recorded agent run | 16 | 16 | n/a | 10.7 | 75% |
| claude-fable-5 | 21 | 15 | n/a | 4.02 | 93% |
| Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 175 | 14 | n/a | 56.5 | 100% |
| gpt-5-mini | 9 | 7 | n/a | 7.19 | 100% |
| Codex recorded agent ensemble | 2 | 2 | n/a | 0.048 | 100% |
| unreported model | 313 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5-codex | 54 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-sol | 50 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-terra | 30 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | 22 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-luna | 11 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.4 | 7 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | 2 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6 | 1 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By run type
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% | next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 908 | 110 | n/a | 12.9 | 88% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| No packs | 177 | 28 | n/a | 36.5 | 93% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| With packs | 40 | 22 | n/a | 10.2 | 82% | Jul 14, 2026 |
Normalized CRPS extremes appear once resolved scores carry their pre-registered normalization scale — CRPS divided by the target's historical dispersion in the official ledger at registration. No resolved score has an eligible scale yet; scales activate as the ledger accumulates pre-cutoff observations per target, and raw CRPS stays published on every resolved prediction below meanwhile.
production contract
Specs in, immutable runs out
spec
690 prediction specs
Question, unit, Ledger target ref, allowed tools, CDF schema, and quality gates.
runner
thesis.recorded-agent-runner
Turns a spec, tool context, and optional pack set into one or more public traces, 201-point CDFs, and run records.
store
Thesis Log
Stores prediction runs and scores; observed facts stay in PolicyEngine Ledger.
Resolution queue
555 pending · next 12 shownFederal DoD employment, June 2026
United Statesbls.ces.federal_department_of_defense_employment.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
resolves
Jul 2, 2026
estimate
474k
US aerospace products employment, June 2026
United Statesbls.ces.aerospace_product_and_parts_employment.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
resolves
Jul 2, 2026
estimate
589k
US ship and boat building employment, June 2026
United Statesbls.ces.ship_and_boat_building_employment.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
resolves
Jul 2, 2026
estimate
148k
United States
resolves
Jul 11, 2026
estimate
6.7M
DoD military programs gross outlays, June 2026
United Statestreasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Monthly Treasury Statement
resolves
Jul 13, 2026
estimate
$72B
U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)
United Statestreasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement (Table 1)
resolves
Jul 13, 2026
estimate
$25B
VA pending disability claims, July 13 2026
United Statesva.vba.mmwr.claims_inventory.week_2026-07-13.first_print
Official VA Veterans Benefits Administration Detailed Claims Data / Monday Morning Workload Report
resolves
Jul 13, 2026
estimate
604k
Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
United Statesbls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
+0.3%
CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
United Statesbls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
+0.4%
UK claimant count, June 2026
United Kingdomons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print
Office for National Statistics, CLA01: Claimant Count and Vacancies
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
1.73m
US Real Avg Hourly Earnings MoM, Jun 2026
United Statesbls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-06.first_print
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
0.1%
US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026
United Statesbls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index news release
resolves
Jul 15, 2026
estimate
+0.7%
Recorded predictions
1125 rows · 201-point CDFs| prediction | geo | recorded | agent / model | activity | packs | estimate | 80% interval | cdf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPM child poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.1% | 12.0% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.4% | 11.7% to 15.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 9.8% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Control · cash trend | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 10.6% | 9.7% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | Census official-poverty pack set Base-rate-first, Cash-income bridge, ASEC release calibration | 10.3% | 9.7% to 11.0% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 11.0% | 10.3% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $80,600 | $78,600 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Control · trend nowcast | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | $80,100 | $77,500 to $83,300 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Brier-1 · ASEC income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | ASEC income pack set Base-rate-first, ASEC income nowcast, ASEC release calibration | $80,800 | $78,900 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2027 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.5% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2027 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 14.2% | 11.5% to 17.4% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, December 2026 bls.lns14000000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 3.9% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Control · no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 2.5% | 1.9% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs · Jun 12 | United States | 2026-06-12 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.6% | 2.0% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2026 census.asec.median_household_income.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $81,200 | $79,100 to $83,400 | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,740 | $2,580 to $2,910 | 201 points |
| Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4) bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +1.9% | +0.9% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026 census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.1% | 9.2% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| Labor force participation rate, December 2026 bls.lns11300000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.4% | 61.9% to 62.8% | 201 points |
| CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $183/mo | $83/mo to $250/mo | 201 points |
| Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $109.6B | $78.8B to $140.4B | 201 points |
| CTC outlays under current law, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $60.5B | $52B to $70B | 201 points |
| EITC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $74B | $65B to $84B | 201 points |
| Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $38B | $25B to $55B | 201 points |
| Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $7.25 | $7.25 to $9.50 | 201 points |
| Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $32,000 | $16,000 to $35,000 | 201 points |
| Top individual income tax rate, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.0% | 37.0% to 39.6% | 201 points |
| SALT deduction cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $22,000 | $10,000 to $80,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,010 | $975.00 to $1,045 | 201 points |
| SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $128B | $116B to $143B | 201 points |
| ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $94B | $62B to $132B | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82M | 77M to 88M | 201 points |
| SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.7% | 12.0% to 13.5% | 201 points |
| SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12.6% | 11.6% to 13.8% | 201 points |
| Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $49B | $32B to $78B | 201 points |
| SSI federal payments, FY2027 ssa.ssi.federal_payments.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $75B | $68B to $84B | 201 points |
| Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027 cms.medicaid.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $655B | $600B to $720B | 201 points |
| Children receiving the CTC, TY2026 irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48M | 45M to 51M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027 hud.hcv.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $36B | $32B to $42B | 201 points |
| Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,860B | $1,760B to $1,985B | 201 points |
| Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027 ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,605B | $1,540B to $1,685B | 201 points |
| Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.2B | $4.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| WIC average monthly participation, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.average_monthly_participation.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.9M | 6.3M to 7.6M | 201 points |
| National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27 usda.fns.nslp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 30.4M | 28.8M to 32.3M | 201 points |
| ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027 cms.aca.exchange_qhp_selections.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 19.8M | 14M to 25M | 201 points |
| Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027 cms.medicare.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,110B | $1,035B to $1,210B | 201 points |
| TANF federal outlays, FY2027 acf.tanf.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $17B | $15B to $19.5B | 201 points |
| Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027 acf.ccdf.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $12.5B | $9B to $17B | 201 points |
| Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.estate_gift_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $45B | $28B to $72B | 201 points |
| EITC claimant returns, TY2027 irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4M | 21.6M to 25.5M | 201 points |
| Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.corporation_income_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $570B | $430B to $730B | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_persons.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.6M | 37.4M to 44.1M | 201 points |
| Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28 ed.pell.recipients.award_year_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2M | 6.4M to 8.2M | 201 points |
| Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027 acf.head_start.funded_enrollment.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.8M | 0.7M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| TANF average monthly families, FY2027 acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.7M | 0.6M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027 acf.ccdf.average_monthly_children_served.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.1M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027 acf.liheap.households_assisted.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.1M | 3.4M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27 fns.sbp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.2M | 14M to 16.7M | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, December 2027 ssa.ssi.recipients.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 7.1M to 7.7M | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly households, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_households.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 21.7M | 19.8M to 23.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 36.8M | 34.5M to 39.4M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027 hud.hcv.households_leased.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.3M | 2.2M to 2.5M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027 fns.sbp.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.7B | $5.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| Child support distributed collections, FY2027 acf.ocss.distributed_collections.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $27.8B | $25B to $31B | 201 points |
| Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027 ed.pell.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $34.5B | $28B to $43B | 201 points |
| WIC federal outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.5B | $7.2B to $10B | 201 points |
| LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027 acf.liheap.federal_funding.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $4.1B | $2.4B to $6.8B | 201 points |
| OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70M | 68.8M to 71.4M | 201 points |
| Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5M to 7M | 201 points |
| Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026 irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8M | 7.4M to 15.2M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.additional_child_tax_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.2M | 13.2M to 19.6M | 201 points |
| Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026 irs.soi.itemized_charitable_contributions.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $305B | $245B to $375B | 201 points |
| Medicare total enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicare.total_beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70.7M | 69.2M to 72.3M | 201 points |
| Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.retired_worker_average_benefit.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,190/mo | $2,110/mo to $2,285/mo | 201 points |
| Refundable CTC amount, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,800 | $1,000 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8,500 | $8,050 to $9,100 | 201 points |
| SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.average_benefit_per_person.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $232/mo | $216/mo to $252/mo | 201 points |
| ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027 cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $560/mo to $860/mo | 201 points |
| Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026 dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 214k | 197k to 233k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85k | -60k to 220k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, May 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | +0.3% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May retail sales pack set Base-rate first, Consumer-spending nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | -0.3% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, Apr 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.8M | 39.5M to 42.2M | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, Apr 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 39.8M | 38.4M to 41.2M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1M | 76.2M to 82.6M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 74.2M | 72.7M to 75.6M | 201 points |
| UK claimant count, June 2026 ons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.73m | 1.71m to 1.74m | 201 points |
| Euro-area construction production, May 2026 eurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +105.7 | +104.4 to 107.1 | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, June 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 18k | -22k to 58k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, June 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia June building approvals abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.5% | -22.0% to 25.0% | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $5,028.3B | $5,005.4B to $5,051.2B | 201 points |
| Canada EI regular beneficiaries, July 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.july_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 529k | 522k to 536k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, July 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, July 18 Week dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, July 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.july_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.1% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, July 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, July 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.july_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.9M | 34.7M to 37.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC Participation, June 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP Participation, June 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.6M | 34.7M to 36.4M | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,741.4B | $23,634.4B to $23,848.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,620B to $23,860B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,630B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701B | $23,577.5B to $23,824.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,617.6B to $23,822.4B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,596.5B to $23,843.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,720B | $23,596B to $23,825B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,710B | $23,620B to $23,840B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,596B to $23,784B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,705B | $23,605.3B to $23,804.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $24,185B | $24,074.7B to $24,295.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,705B | $23,603.7B to $23,806.4B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,725B | $23,615B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701.7B | $23,578.2B to $23,825.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,711.7B | $23,588.2B to $23,835.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,729.1B | $23,626.7B to $23,831.6B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $23,711.7B | $23,587.6B to $23,832.1B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,485.7B to $23,900B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,715B | $23,590B to $23,836.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,770B | $23,695B to $23,850B | 201 points |
| UK CPI Annual Rate, June 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.9% | 2.5% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE Payrolled Employees, June 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 30.3M | 30.2M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| UK PSNB ex Banks, June 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | £24.8B | £13.8B to £35.8B | 201 points |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, June 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 590k | 525k to 655k | 201 points |
| US goods and services trade deficit, June 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $67B | $39.7B to $94.3B | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.2% | -0.6% to 0.2% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-luna | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.4% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.4% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.7% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.8M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.6M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.8M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $308.1B | $262.4B to $353.8B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $291B | $242B to $340B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $280B | $237B to $323B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $295B | $248B to $342B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305B | $259.4B to $350.6B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $295B | $247.7B to $342.4B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $319.1B | $240B to $430B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $325B | $272B to $378B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $324.2B | $213.1B to $435.3B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $290B | $231.3B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $260B | $148B to $372B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $289B | $177B to $401B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $300B | $247.5B to $352.5B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | $289B | $176.1B to $372.9B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $270B | $201.1B to $358B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305.5B | $210B to $400B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $255B | $190B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $296B | $213B to $380B | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 535k | 519k to 551k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 545k | 534k to 555k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 533k to 542k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 534k to 548k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 541k | 534k to 548k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 522k to 558k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 536k | 522k to 550k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 540k | 523k to 557k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 537k | 520k to 553k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 537k | 522k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 523k to 556k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 542k | 529k to 555k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 523k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 550k | 528k to 574k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 543k | 529k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 548k | 537k to 561k | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, July 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-07 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.2% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.2% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.0% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.1% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 4.1% | 3.1% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 2.5% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-terra | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 2.9% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.5% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.3% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.6% to 3.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.8% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.7% | 3.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.6-sol | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 3.7% | 3.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.3% | 3.5% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.5% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.9% | 3.3% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Canada Monthly GDP Growth, June 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-06.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS job openings, July 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 6.7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.75% to 2.05% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.july_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.2% | 6.0% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_07.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.0% | 5.8% to 6.2% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, May 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.may_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 41.9M | 41.2M to 42.6M | 201 points |
| Belgium GDP Flash Q3 2026 nbb.gdp.flash_qoq.2026_q3.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Productivity Q3 2026 Preliminary bls.productivity.nonfarm_qoq_prelim.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.7% | -1.7% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| SSDI initial applications, Apr 2027 ssa.dds.initial_disability_receipts.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 233k | 193k to 273k | 201 points |
| SSDI initial applications, Apr 2027, delay branch ssa.dds.initial_disability_receipts.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 227k | 187k to 267k | 201 points |
| CA Medi-Cal ages 50-64, Apr. 2027 | deadline holds ca.dhcs.medi_cal_certified_eligibles.ages_50_64.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.49m | 2.27m to 2.71m | 201 points |
| CA Medi-Cal ages 50-64, Apr. 2027 | deadline delayed ca.dhcs.medi_cal_certified_eligibles.ages_50_64.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.66m | 2.55m to 2.78m | 201 points |
| VA pending disability claims, July 13 2026 va.vba.mmwr.claims_inventory.week_2026-07-13.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 604k | 598k to 610k | 201 points |
| SSI recipients aged 65+ June 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients_aged_65_plus.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.5m | 2.5m to 2.51m | 201 points |
| SSDI disabled workers, June 2026 ssa.oasdi.disabled_worker_beneficiaries.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.01m | 7.0m to 7.02m | 201 points |
| SSA hearings average processing time, Jun 2026 ssa.hearings.average_processing_time_days.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 326 | 322 to 330 | 201 points |
| US 55+ LFPR, July 2026 bls.cps.lfpr_55_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 37.1% | 37.0% to 37.2% | 201 points |
| Disability employment-population ratio, July 2026 bls.cps.LNU02374597.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21.6% | 20.9% to 22.3% | 201 points |
| US senior SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.poverty_rate_65_plus.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 15.3% | 13.1% to 17.5% | 201 points |
| Social Security COLA 2027 ssa.cola.annual_adjustment.2027.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 0.7% to 6.9% | 201 points |
| UK Construction Output Growth, May 2026 ons.outputintheconstructionindustryallworksummary.total_construction_output_mom_sa.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.9% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US total industry capacity utilization, June 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 76.2% | 75.6% to 76.8% | 201 points |
| US industrial production MoM, Jun 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewals, Jun 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.2026-06.preliminary_first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 718,000 | 662,000 to 774,000 | 201 points |
| California Medicaid Renewals, Jun 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 590,000 | 530,000 to 650,000 | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.6% | +0.1% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-06.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.7% | +0.2% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| UK manufacturing output index, May 2026 ons.iop.manufacturing_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +101.6 | +100.3 to 102.9 | 201 points |
| UK Index of Services May 2026 ons.ios.total_services_cvmsa_index.2026-05.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +104.7 | +104.1 to 105.3 | 201 points |
| US advance retail sales monthly change, June 2026 census.marts.adv44x72.monthly_change.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -1.0% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| US import prices MoM, Jun 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.1% | +0.0% to 2.2% | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.3M | 1.1M to 1.5M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, June 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-06.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 1.2M | 1.1M to 1.4M | 201 points |
| California Medicaid Procedural Disenrollments, June 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 205,000 | 170,000 to 240,000 | 201 points |
| California Medicaid/CHIP disenrollments, June 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_total.california.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 222,000 | 206,000 to 238,000 | 201 points |
| US continued claims, Jul 4 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.45m | 6.8m to 8.15m | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.35m | 6.65m to 8.05m | 201 points |
| SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,022/mo | $1,005/mo to $1,045/mo | 201 points |
| SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,021/mo | $1,000/mo to $1,055/mo | 201 points |
| HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027 hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $33,920 | $33,520 to $34,480 | 201 points |
| Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027 irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,300 | $2,200 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027 irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $2,300 | $2,200 to $2,400 | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, March 2026 usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.1M | 36.4M to 37.8M | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, March 2026 usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 41.9M | 41M to 42.9M | 201 points |
| WIC total participation, March 2026 usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.6M | 6.5M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| WIC total participation, March 2026 usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.6M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.4M | 74M to 74.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 78.1M | 77.3M to 78.9M | 201 points |
| IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026 irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $370B | $360B to $382B | 201 points |
| IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026 irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $368B | $356B to $385B | 201 points |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.9% | 2.6% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.7% to 5.7% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.1% | 4.7% to 5.5% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.6% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.1% | 4.5% to 5.8% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Thesis analyst live run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 8 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 30.2M | 30M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.6% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | £18.5B | £13B to £24B | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 7.0% | 6.7% to 7.3% | 201 points |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -10k | -60k to 50k | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.7% | 2.3% to 3.1% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.2% to 3.0% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Canada | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.25% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.5% | 4.1% to 4.9% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 15k | -45k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 10k | -55k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 20k | -35k to 85k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 20k | -35k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.7% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.6% | 3.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.9% | 4.2% to 5.6% | 201 points |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.35% | 4.35% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 3.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 2.8% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.0% | 1.7% to 2.3% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 6.3% | 6.2% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 6.3% | 6.1% to 6.5% | 201 points |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 0.75% | 0.75% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.5% | 1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.6% | 1.2% to 2.0% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.5% | 2.7% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.2% to 1.3% | 201 points |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 76.3% | 75.6% to 76.9% | 201 points |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.3% to 1.5% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $2,725B | $2,716.5B to $2,732.5B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $4,997B | $4,955B to $5,045B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $4,990B | $4,935B to $5,060B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $4,998B | $4,950B to $5,055B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $4,315B | $4,295B to $4,338B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,650B | $1,638B to $1,662B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,650B | $1,632B to $1,668B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,651B | $1,640B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,650.5B | $1,638B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,332B | $1,318B to $1,346B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,330B | $1,312B to $1,348B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,332B | $1,320B to $1,344B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,332B | $1,326B to $1,338B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,041B | $1,029B to $1,057B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,038B | $1,018B to $1,058B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,041B | $1,025B to $1,060B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,037.5B | $1,018B to $1,056B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $13,350B | $13,300B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $13,345B | $13,280B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | $13,362B | $13,315B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $13,365B | $13,325B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $3,266.8B | $3,247.5B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $3,262B | $3,235B to $3,310B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $3,268B | $3,248B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $23,512B | $23,445B to $23,615B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $23,500B | $23,420B to $23,625B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $23,520B | $23,445B to $23,620B | 201 points |
| US PCE price index inflation, May 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +1.5% | +1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $305B | $240B to $380B | 201 points |
| US aerospace products employment, June 2026 bls.ces.aerospace_product_and_parts_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 589k | 583k to 596k | 201 points |
| US ship and boat building employment, June 2026 bls.ces.ship_and_boat_building_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 148k | 147k to 150k | 201 points |
| Federal DoD employment, June 2026 bls.ces.federal_department_of_defense_employment.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 474k | 452k to 501k | 201 points |
| DoD military programs gross outlays, June 2026 treasury.mts.dod_military_programs_gross_outlays.june_2026.first_print Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | $72B | $62B to $86B | 201 points |
| DoD contract obligations, FY2026 usaspending.dod.contract_obligations.fy2026.fixed_vintage_2026_12_31 Defense public-data batch | United States | 2026-06-29 | brier-defense-public-data Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | $470B | $405B to $535B | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.42m | 10.05m to 10.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 10.48m | 10.13m to 10.86m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 10.35m | 10.35m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.85m | 5.55m to 6.15m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 5.9m | 5.62m to 6.21m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 5.78m | 5.78m to 5.78m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.42m | 7.05m to 7.8m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 7.48m | 7.12m to 7.86m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 7.34m | 7.34m to 7.34m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.65m | 17.20m to 18.05m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.59m | 17.14m to 17.98m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 17.78m | 17.78m to 17.78m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.52m | 8.15m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.5m | 8.12m to 8.88m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 8.59m | 8.59m to 8.59m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.05m | 13.50m to 14.65m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.11m | 13.58m to 14.70m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 14.01m | 14.01m to 14.01m | 201 points |
| CPS business and financial employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.04m | 9.6m to 10.48m | 201 points |
| CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.92m | 6.5m to 7.35m | 201 points |
| CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.8m | 5.4m to 6.2m | 201 points |
| CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 16.30m | 15.65m to 16.95m | 201 points |
| CPS production employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.9m | 7.5m to 8.35m | 201 points |
| CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 12.10m | 11.50m to 12.70m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 11.48m | 10.35m to 12.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 11.71m | 10.65m to 12.75m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 11.85m | 11.85m to 11.85m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.3m | 5.0m to 7.6m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 6.12m | 5.12m to 7.25m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 5.96m | 5.96m to 5.96m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 9.1m | 8.1m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 9.02m | 8.15m to 9.9m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.97m | 8.97m to 8.97m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.20m | 14.50m to 19.40m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.85m | 15.30m to 19.45m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 18.56m | 18.56m to 18.56m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.55m | 7.6m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.75m | 7.8m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.9m | 8.9m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.25m | 12.50m to 16.10m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.58m | 12.80m to 16.15m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 14.78m | 14.78m to 14.78m | 201 points |
| Management 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,200 | $59,100 to $65,500 | 201 points |
| Management 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,130 | $59,630 to $60,630 | 201 points |
| Management 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,800 | $81,500 to $90,300 | 201 points |
| Management 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,970 | $82,470 to $83,470 | 201 points |
| Management median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $130,900 | $124,300 to $137,800 | 201 points |
| Management median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $126,520 | $126,020 to $127,020 | 201 points |
| Management mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $150,300 | $142,800 to $158,200 | 201 points |
| Management mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $145,260 | $144,760 to $145,760 | 201 points |
| Management 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $182,400 | $173,200 to $191,900 | 201 points |
| Management 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $176,280 | $175,780 to $176,780 | 201 points |
| Management 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $266,200 | $252,900 to $280,200 | 201 points |
| Management 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_11_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $257,310 | $256,810 to $257,810 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $50,500 | $48,000 to $53,200 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $48,820 | $48,320 to $49,320 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,100 | $61,900 to $68,500 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,940 | $62,440 to $63,440 | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,500 | $81,200 to $90,000 | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,660 | $82,160 to $83,160 | 201 points |
| Business and financial mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $98,500 | $93,600 to $103,700 | 201 points |
| Business and financial mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $95,230 | $94,730 to $95,730 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $118,800 | $112,800 to $125,000 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $114,820 | $114,320 to $115,320 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $159,300 | $151,300 to $167,700 | 201 points |
| Business and financial 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $153,990 | $153,490 to $154,490 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,200 | $57,200 to $63,400 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,200 | $57,700 to $58,700 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $81,500 | $77,500 to $85,800 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $78,820 | $78,320 to $79,320 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $113,000 | $107,400 to $119,000 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $109,280 | $108,780 to $109,780 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $124,200 | $118,000 to $130,800 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $120,080 | $119,580 to $120,580 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $161,200 | $153,100 to $169,700 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $155,830 | $155,330 to $156,330 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $198,000 | $188,100 to $208,500 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $191,450 | $190,950 to $191,950 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,700 | $57,700 to $63,900 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,670 | $58,170 to $59,170 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,200 | $75,200 to $83,400 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,560 | $76,060 to $77,060 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $102,900 | $97,800 to $108,400 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $99,520 | $99,020 to $100,020 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $110,500 | $105,000 to $116,300 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $106,830 | $106,330 to $107,330 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $134,700 | $128,000 to $141,800 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $130,240 | $129,740 to $130,740 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $172,200 | $163,600 to $181,300 | 201 points |
| Architecture and engineering 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_17_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $166,490 | $165,990 to $166,990 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $50,100 | $47,600 to $52,700 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $48,420 | $47,920 to $48,920 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $64,500 | $61,300 to $67,900 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,380 | $61,880 to $62,880 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,400 | $81,100 to $89,900 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,530 | $82,030 to $83,030 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $97,900 | $93,000 to $103,000 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $94,600 | $94,100 to $95,100 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $118,400 | $112,500 to $124,600 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $114,460 | $113,960 to $114,960 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $161,200 | $153,100 to $169,700 | 201 points |
| Life, physical, and social science 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_19_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $155,830 | $155,330 to $156,330 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,300 | $37,300 to $41,300 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,970 | $37,470 to $38,470 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,000 | $45,600 to $50,500 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,370 | $45,870 to $46,870 | 201 points |
| Community and social service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,300 | $57,300 to $63,500 | 201 points |
| Community and social service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,300 | $57,800 to $58,800 | 201 points |
| Community and social service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,600 | $62,300 to $69,000 | 201 points |
| Community and social service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,410 | $62,910 to $63,910 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,500 | $74,600 to $82,700 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $75,910 | $75,410 to $76,410 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $101,000 | $95,900 to $106,300 | 201 points |
| Community and social service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_21_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $97,630 | $97,130 to $98,130 | 201 points |
| Legal 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,100 | $48,500 to $53,800 | 201 points |
| Legal 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $49,400 | $48,900 to $49,900 | 201 points |
| Legal 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $67,000 | $63,700 to $70,600 | 201 points |
| Legal 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $64,800 | $64,300 to $65,300 | 201 points |
| Legal median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $106,000 | $100,700 to $111,600 | 201 points |
| Legal median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $102,500 | $102,000 to $103,000 | 201 points |
| Legal mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $144,300 | $137,100 to $151,900 | 201 points |
| Legal mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $139,510 | $139,010 to $140,010 | 201 points |
| Legal 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $180,600 | $171,600 to $190,100 | 201 points |
| Legal 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $174,620 | $174,120 to $175,120 | 201 points |
| Legal 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $297,000 | $282,100 to $312,600 | 201 points |
| Legal 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_23_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $287,070 | $286,570 to $287,570 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,100 | $32,400 to $35,900 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,990 | $32,490 to $33,490 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $45,400 | $43,100 to $47,800 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $43,900 | $43,400 to $44,400 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,700 | $59,500 to $66,000 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,570 | $60,070 to $61,070 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $69,900 | $66,400 to $73,500 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $67,540 | $67,040 to $68,040 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $82,200 | $78,100 to $86,500 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $79,470 | $78,970 to $79,970 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $108,900 | $103,400 to $114,600 | 201 points |
| Educational instruction and library 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_25_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $105,240 | $104,740 to $105,740 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,900 | $34,100 to $37,800 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,700 | $34,200 to $35,200 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $46,300 | $43,900 to $48,700 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,720 | $44,220 to $45,220 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $64,900 | $61,700 to $68,300 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $62,750 | $62,250 to $63,250 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $82,500 | $78,400 to $86,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $79,790 | $79,290 to $80,290 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $97,800 | $92,900 to $102,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $94,530 | $94,030 to $95,030 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $139,500 | $132,600 to $146,900 | 201 points |
| Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_27_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $134,900 | $134,400 to $135,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,900 | $45,500 to $50,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,270 | $45,770 to $46,770 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $66,100 | $62,800 to $69,500 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,860 | $63,360 to $64,360 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $89,500 | $85,000 to $94,200 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $86,530 | $86,030 to $87,030 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $112,400 | $106,800 to $118,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $108,700 | $108,200 to $109,200 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $127,800 | $121,400 to $134,500 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $123,540 | $123,040 to $124,040 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $177,700 | $168,800 to $187,100 | 201 points |
| Healthcare practitioners and technical 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_29_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $171,790 | $171,290 to $172,290 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $30,000 | $28,500 to $31,600 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,980 | $28,480 to $29,480 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,500 | $33,700 to $37,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,320 | $33,820 to $34,820 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,700 | $37,700 to $41,700 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,340 | $37,840 to $38,840 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,200 | $40,100 to $44,400 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $40,800 | $40,300 to $41,300 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,500 | $45,100 to $50,000 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $45,930 | $45,430 to $46,430 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $56,100 | $53,300 to $59,000 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $54,230 | $53,730 to $54,730 | 201 points |
| Protective service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,000 | $32,300 to $35,800 | 201 points |
| Protective service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,850 | $32,350 to $33,350 | 201 points |
| Protective service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,600 | $36,700 to $40,700 | 201 points |
| Protective service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,350 | $36,850 to $37,850 | 201 points |
| Protective service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,800 | $49,200 to $54,500 | 201 points |
| Protective service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $50,080 | $49,580 to $50,580 | 201 points |
| Protective service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,800 | $59,700 to $66,100 | 201 points |
| Protective service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,720 | $60,220 to $61,220 | 201 points |
| Protective service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,600 | $74,700 to $82,700 | 201 points |
| Protective service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $75,990 | $75,490 to $76,490 | 201 points |
| Protective service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $106,000 | $100,700 to $111,600 | 201 points |
| Protective service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_33_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $102,470 | $101,970 to $102,970 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $23,900 | $22,700 to $25,200 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $23,120 | $22,620 to $23,620 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $29,800 | $28,300 to $31,300 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,760 | $28,260 to $29,260 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $36,300 | $34,400 to $38,200 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $35,050 | $34,550 to $35,550 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,400 | $36,500 to $40,500 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,150 | $36,650 to $37,650 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $43,300 | $41,100 to $45,600 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,860 | $41,360 to $42,360 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,100 | $50,500 to $55,900 | 201 points |
| Food preparation and serving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_35_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,340 | $50,840 to $51,840 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $30,000 | $28,500 to $31,600 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $29,010 | $28,510 to $29,510 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,100 | $33,300 to $36,900 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $33,930 | $33,430 to $34,430 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,000 | $37,000 to $41,000 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,680 | $37,180 to $38,180 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,300 | $40,200 to $44,500 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $40,880 | $40,380 to $41,380 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,800 | $45,400 to $50,300 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,170 | $45,670 to $46,670 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $59,400 | $56,400 to $62,500 | 201 points |
| Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_37_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $57,420 | $56,920 to $57,920 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $27,300 | $26,000 to $28,800 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $26,430 | $25,930 to $26,930 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $31,900 | $30,300 to $33,600 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $30,820 | $30,320 to $31,320 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,700 | $35,800 to $39,600 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,410 | $35,910 to $36,910 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,500 | $40,400 to $44,700 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,070 | $40,570 to $41,570 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,600 | $45,300 to $50,200 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,060 | $45,560 to $46,560 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $63,100 | $60,000 to $66,400 | 201 points |
| Personal care and service 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_39_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $61,020 | $60,520 to $61,520 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $29,000 | $27,600 to $30,600 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $28,080 | $27,580 to $28,580 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $33,600 | $31,900 to $35,300 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $32,440 | $31,940 to $32,940 | 201 points |
| Sales and related median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,900 | $37,900 to $42,000 | 201 points |
| Sales and related median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,530 | $38,030 to $39,030 | 201 points |
| Sales and related mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $56,900 | $54,000 to $59,800 | 201 points |
| Sales and related mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $54,960 | $54,460 to $55,460 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $63,200 | $60,000 to $66,500 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $61,100 | $60,600 to $61,600 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $103,300 | $98,100 to $108,700 | 201 points |
| Sales and related 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_41_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $99,850 | $99,350 to $100,350 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $34,700 | $33,000 to $36,500 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $33,530 | $33,030 to $34,030 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,900 | $37,900 to $42,000 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,540 | $38,040 to $39,040 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $49,100 | $46,600 to $51,700 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $47,450 | $46,950 to $47,950 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,300 | $50,700 to $56,100 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,560 | $51,060 to $52,060 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,100 | $59,000 to $65,400 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $60,060 | $59,560 to $60,560 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $78,800 | $74,900 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,170 | $75,670 to $76,670 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $32,900 | $31,200 to $34,600 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $31,760 | $31,260 to $32,260 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,700 | $33,900 to $37,600 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,540 | $34,040 to $35,040 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,900 | $36,000 to $39,900 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,630 | $36,130 to $37,130 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $42,900 | $40,800 to $45,200 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $41,510 | $41,010 to $42,010 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $46,500 | $44,200 to $49,000 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,990 | $44,490 to $45,490 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $60,200 | $57,200 to $63,400 | 201 points |
| Farming, fishing, and forestry 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_45_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $58,220 | $57,720 to $58,720 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,400 | $37,400 to $41,500 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,100 | $37,600 to $38,600 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,500 | $46,100 to $51,000 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,880 | $46,380 to $47,380 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $61,600 | $58,500 to $64,800 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,540 | $59,040 to $60,040 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $67,600 | $64,200 to $71,200 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $65,360 | $64,860 to $65,860 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $80,700 | $76,600 to $84,900 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $77,970 | $77,470 to $78,470 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $105,200 | $99,900 to $110,700 | 201 points |
| Construction and extraction 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_47_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $101,650 | $101,150 to $102,150 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $38,300 | $36,400 to $40,300 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $37,000 | $36,500 to $37,500 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $47,700 | $45,300 to $50,200 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,110 | $45,610 to $46,610 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $61,700 | $58,600 to $64,900 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,620 | $59,120 to $60,120 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $65,500 | $62,200 to $68,900 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $63,320 | $62,820 to $63,820 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,300 | $75,300 to $83,500 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,670 | $76,170 to $77,170 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $99,900 | $94,900 to $105,100 | 201 points |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_49_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $96,540 | $96,040 to $97,040 | 201 points |
| Production 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $35,400 | $33,600 to $37,300 | 201 points |
| Production 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $34,240 | $33,740 to $34,740 | 201 points |
| Production 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $39,400 | $37,500 to $41,500 | 201 points |
| Production 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,130 | $37,630 to $38,630 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,600 | $46,200 to $51,200 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,990 | $46,490 to $47,490 | 201 points |
| Production mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $53,400 | $50,700 to $56,200 | 201 points |
| Production mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $51,600 | $51,100 to $52,100 | 201 points |
| Production 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $62,000 | $58,900 to $65,200 | 201 points |
| Production 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $59,920 | $59,420 to $60,420 | 201 points |
| Production 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $79,600 | $75,700 to $83,800 | 201 points |
| Production 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $76,990 | $76,490 to $77,490 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $32,100 | $30,500 to $33,800 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 10th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_10th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 10th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $31,060 | $30,560 to $31,560 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $37,500 | $35,700 to $39,500 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 25th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_25th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 25th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $36,290 | $35,790 to $36,790 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $45,900 | $43,600 to $48,300 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,350 | $43,850 to $44,850 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $51,600 | $49,000 to $54,300 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving mean wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_mean_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual mean wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $49,850 | $49,350 to $50,350 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $57,900 | $55,000 to $61,000 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 75th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_75th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 75th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $55,990 | $55,490 to $56,490 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $74,900 | $71,200 to $78,900 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving 90th percentile wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_90th_percentile_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual 90th percentile wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $72,440 | $71,940 to $72,940 | 201 points |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.2% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -1.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 552k | 536k to 570k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 556k | 535k to 580k | 201 points |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -2.0% | -16.0% to 13.0% | 201 points |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.0% | -1.1% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.1% | -0.8% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +2.0% | -12.0% to 18.0% | 201 points |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Australia | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.0% | -10.0% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -0.3% | -2.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -1.1% | -4.0% to 2.2% | 201 points |
| Individual income tax refunds, FY2026 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $486B | $455B to $525B | 201 points |
| Individual income tax refunds, FY2026 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $340B | $295B to $395B | 201 points |
| Net PTC reconciliation amount, TY2025 irs.soi.net_premium_tax_credit_reconciliation.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.6B | $6.4B to $11.2B | 201 points |
| Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025 irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5.3M to 6.6M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.4M | 75.8M to 83.8M | 201 points |
| Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025 census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.6% | 9.9% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025 census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 11.3% | 10.7% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027 cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.2M | 2.4M to 4.4M | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.50 per 1,000 | 5.34 per 1,000 to 5.72 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.ctc_3000_refundable.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.40 per 1,000 | 5.16 per 1,000 to 5.66 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP cumulative redemptions, FY2026 usda.fns.snap.benefit_redemptions.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $111.5B | $103B to $122B | 201 points |
| WIC child participation, FY2026 usda.fns.wic.child_participation.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.9M | 3.6M to 4.2M | 201 points |
| CCDF payment per child, FY2026 hhs.acf.ccdf.average_monthly_payment_per_child.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $610/mo to $800/mo | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 9.3% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 88.5% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 8.6% to 22.6% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.9% to 10.1% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.1% | 5.8% to 10.3% | 201 points |
| California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.0% to 12.4% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.5% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 8.8% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.5% | 14.1% to 18.9% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.6% | 3.4% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 13.3% to 17.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.4% | 13.6% to 19.2% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.5% | 2.4% to 12.6% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 0.3% to 10.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 4.8% to 7.7% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.5% | 2.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.0% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.7% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 7.3% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.5% to 11.3% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.5% | 5.2% to 7.8% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.0% | 11.9% to 18.1% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.2% | 8.5% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 6.7% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.5% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.2% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.0% | 7.4% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.7% | 9.4% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.0% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.9% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4% | 5.6% to 9.2% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.2% to 6.7% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 2.7% to 9.7% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 1.8% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.5% | 13.2% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.6% | 4.2% to 7.0% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.3% | 12.6% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8% | 9.5% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.2% | 10.9% to 15.6% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 5.2% to 13.1% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.1% | 10.8% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 0.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 1.8% to 4.4% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.0% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.6% | 6.8% to 10.4% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 9.9% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.7% | 0.3% to 6.1% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.2% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.7% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 2.8% to 5.5% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 7.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.7% to 6.3% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.0% | 55.0% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 90.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.7% | 55.6% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.8% to 92.8% | 201 points |
| California SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.1% | 77.1% to 83.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.2% to 71.5% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.1% | 83.5% to 92.7% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.7% | 52.8% to 66.7% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 71.1% | 62.1% to 80.1% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.4% | 60.9% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.4% | 56.0% to 72.7% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.1% | 40.1% to 56.2% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.3% | 61.6% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 61.1% | 52.1% to 70.1% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.2% to 95.4% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 90.1% to 96.4% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 78.1% to 83.9% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.6% | 80.4% to 84.8% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.2% | 82.6% to 99.5% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 79.3% to 91.4% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 83.5% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 87.8% to 98.9% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.1% | 49.1% to 67.1% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 73.2% to 78.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1% | 74.0% to 84.2% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.6% | 70.5% to 82.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.6% | 74.5% to 82.7% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.4% to 71.4% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.5% | 76.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.6% | 54.4% to 62.9% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.7% | 85.5% to 91.8% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 85.8% to 92.2% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.7% | 72.2% to 81.2% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.6% | 39.6% to 57.6% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 91.1% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.4% | 79.4% to 97.4% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.1% | 89.9% to 94.3% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 86.4% to 91.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.8% | 63.2% to 76.4% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.2% | 87.3% to 93.0% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.9% | 91.1% to 98.8% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.5% | 71.5% to 77.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.3% | 81.5% to 89.1% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 35.0% | 30.0% to 44.0% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 73.7% | 67.6% to 79.8% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.3% | 82.5% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.3% | 77.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.8% to 88.4% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 85.6% to 93.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 95.5% | 92.6% to 98.4% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 68.3% to 80.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.3% to 93.2% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 53.4% | 40.5% to 66.2% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 53.4% | 40.5% to 66.2% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 57.1% | 51.9% to 62.2% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 57.1% | 51.9% to 62.2% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.8% | 85.6% to 93.9% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 89.8% | 85.6% to 93.9% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 85.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 93.3% | 85.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 78.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 88.9% | 78.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.8% | 68.5% to 81.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 74.8% | 68.5% to 81.0% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.8% | 93.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 96.8% | 93.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.8% | 61.8% to 89.8% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 73.8% | 57.2% to 88.7% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 42.2% | 37.0% to 47.5% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 40.4% | 33.8% to 48.3% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.6% | 78.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 83.6% | 78.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.2% | 51.1% to 75.4% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 68.0% | 54.0% to 82.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.3% | 64.3% to 92.3% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 78.0% | 63.5% to 91.5% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 94.2% | 78.4% to 99.8% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.7% | 73.4% to 90.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 81.7% | 73.4% to 90.0% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.8% | 48.8% to 76.8% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-28 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 64.5% | 49.5% to 78.5% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 56.4% | 49.1% to 63.7% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 56.4% | 46.8% to 67.2% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 84.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 92.0% | 82.8% to 98.6% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.7% | 52.7% to 80.7% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 67.4% | 53.2% to 81.5% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.4% | 63.5% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-07-01 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 79.2% | 68.5% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 68.7% to 83.4% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.9% | 74.6% to 87.2% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 86.5% | 82.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 85.9% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.5% | 47.7% to 73.4% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.6% | 79.5% to 89.7% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 95.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 68.5% to 85.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.6% | 53.6% to 81.6% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.4% | 64.4% to 92.4% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.4% | 52.4% to 80.4% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.1% | 82.1% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 26.2% | 12.2% to 40.2% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.6% | 55.6% to 83.6% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.2% | 74.0% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.3% | 74.9% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.8% | 30.3% to 57.4% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.4% | 84.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 81.8% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.3% | 64.1% to 86.6% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.0% | 61.2% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.5% | 10.1% to 17.0% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 61.7% to 82.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.0% | 46.0% to 74.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 76.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.9% | 91.2% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.4% | 51.0% to 67.8% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 75.3% to 88.5% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.7% | 63.7% to 91.7% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.1% | 70.1% to 98.1% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4% | 18.6% to 28.3% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 69.0% to 85.0% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 69.2% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 68.9% | 54.9% to 82.9% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.9% | 29.9% to 57.9% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.0% | 63.6% to 86.4% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.2% | 48.2% to 76.2% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 51.0% | 44.3% to 57.8% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 74.1% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.8% | 62.3% to 83.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 1.0% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.8% | 76.4% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 39.4% | 27.1% to 51.7% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 60.2% to 88.2% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 97.8% | 83.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 49.3% | 35.3% to 63.3% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.5% to 95.1% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 77.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 80.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.1% | 78.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.1% | 89.8% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.4% | 77.1% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 63.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.6% | 54.8% to 64.4% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 74.3% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.5% | 30.9% to 44.1% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 82.0% to 95.9% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 75.2% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 84.6% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.7% | 68.0% to 89.4% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.8% | 56.8% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 88.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.5% | 79.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.0% | 54.6% to 75.5% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.0% | 29.1% to 50.9% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.6% | 63.6% to 91.6% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 22.4% | 12.1% to 32.6% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 76.1% to 95.3% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.9% | 56.6% to 75.2% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 58.1% to 86.1% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 87.0% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.5% | 73.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 86.7% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.5% | 80.4% to 90.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.2% | 50.1% to 70.3% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.2% to 89.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.5% | 64.7% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025 fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.2% | 69.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.2% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.3% | 9.0% to 11.7% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 33 min | 26 min to 43 min | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 15 min | 12 min to 18 min | 201 points |
| Probability the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 80.0% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional) cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 29.4 min | 19.7 min to 38.4 min | 201 points |
| California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80% cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.5% | 91.5% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.6% | 9.6% to 11.7% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 23.1% | 21.1% to 25.1% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.6% | 7.6% to 11.6% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 6.8% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.9% | 8.9% to 12.9% | 201 points |
| California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.9% | 8.9% to 12.9% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.1% | 8.1% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.0% | 7.0% to 11.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 18.7% | 16.7% to 20.7% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 16.1% | 13.8% to 18.3% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.9% | 10.8% to 14.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 15.2% | 13.2% to 17.2% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 9.8% to 13.8% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.1% | 8.7% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.3% | 3.3% to 7.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 3.9% | 1.9% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 14.8% | 12.6% to 16.9% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.8% | 7.8% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 4.5% | 2.1% to 6.8% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.2% | 6.1% to 10.2% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 13.1% | 11.1% to 15.1% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.8% | 8.8% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.9% | 7.9% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.7% | 10.4% to 14.9% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.7% | 6.7% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.5% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 6.9% to 10.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 7.3% | 5.1% to 9.4% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 10.0% | 8.0% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.9% | 3.9% to 7.9% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 6.9% to 10.9% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.6% | 3.7% to 9.4% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 16.9% | 14.8% to 18.9% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 4.2% to 8.2% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 13.2% | 11.1% to 15.2% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.7% | 4.6% to 8.7% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 11.1% | 9.1% to 13.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 14.2% | 12.1% to 16.2% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.2% | 7.2% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 6.8% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 2.5% | 0.5% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.5% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.5% | 3.5% to 7.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 12.4% | 10.4% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.4% to 7.4% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.4% to 7.4% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 7.0% | 5.0% to 9.0% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 3.8% to 7.8% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 6.6% | 4.4% to 8.7% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2026 Brier base-rate prior | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5-codex | trace only | unreported | 3.9% | 1.9% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| SNAP overpayment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.overpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 SNAP component error-rate model | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 8.0% to 10.8% | 201 points |
| SNAP underpayment error rate, FY 2026 fns.snap.underpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026 SNAP component error-rate model | United States | 2026-06-25 | thesis.analyst damped_log_trend_v1 + Brier component check | trace only | unreported | 1.2% | 1.0% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.5% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May housing starts pack set Base-rate first, Housing activity nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | 1.5M | 1.3M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 2.7% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 3.75% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 222k | 202k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 219k | 197k to 244k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 225k | 207k to 243k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 209k to 243k | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4% | 1.0% to 1.8% | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.0% | 2.5% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 2.8% | 2.3% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 3.7% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 220k | 198k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 221k | 198k to 246k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 208k to 243k | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Brier-1 - PCE bridge packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 6.9M to 7.9M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 7.2M | 6.6M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - JOLTS packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May JOLTS labor pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 7.4M | 7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 7.5M | 6.9M to 8.1M | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 2.8% to 3.6% | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.3% | 2.8% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 125k | -10k to 265k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 150k | 35k to 260k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 150k | -20k to 310k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 4.3% | 4.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | $25B | $-90B to $170B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $72B | $-35B to $210B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $155B | $20B to $310B | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.0% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - CPI energy packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June monthly CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.5% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - core CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June core CPI pack set Base-rate first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 220k | 204k to 238k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 218k | 204k to 232k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 219k | 203k to 235k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 217k | 204k to 231k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 218k | 203k to 232k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, May 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 520k to 557k | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, June 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.1% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI inflation, Jun 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-06.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.7% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, June 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.june_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.2% | 6.0% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE MoM June 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-06 Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, July 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-07 Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.1% | 201 points |
| Canada GDP by industry, May 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-05.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, July 2026 prelim statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.july_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-07-05 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.4% | 2.7% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, Jun 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.5M | 6.9M to 8.1M | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, July 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm payrolls, Jul 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 85k | -65k to 235k | 201 points |
| US CPI-U July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| US core CPI July 2026 MoM bls.cpi.u.core_mom.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Belgium consumer confidence, July 2026 nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -8.4 | -15.0 to -2.0 | 201 points |
| Belgium NBB business barometer, July 2026 nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -12.2 | -17.5 to -7.0 | 201 points |
| Belgium CPI inflation, July 2026 statbel.cpi.headline_yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.4% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| Belgium health-index inflation, July 2026 statbel.health_index.yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.1% | 2.4% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| Belgium GDP flash, Q2 2026 nbb.gdp.flash_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, June 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_06.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 13 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 5.9% to 6.7% | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 14 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | 2026-07-08 | thesis.analyst.median3 gpt-5.5 | 4 artifacts constituent manifest, constituent manifest, constituent manifest | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| WIC participation, Apr 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-04.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.6M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US Real Avg Hourly Earnings MoM, Jun 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.5% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, Jun 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.8% to 2.0% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm productivity Q2 2026 prelim bls.productivity.nonfarm_qoq_prelim.2026-Q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.4% | -1.3% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| US telework share, July 2026 bls.cps.telework_share.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21.8% | 17.8% to 25.8% | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 7.3M to 7.3M | 201 points |
| Medicaid enrollment, Apr. 2027 | deadline delayed cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.2027_04.preliminary.deadline_delayed.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 72.9M | 69.9M to 75.9M | 201 points |
| Medicaid enrollment, Apr. 2027 | deadline holds cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.2027_04.first_print.work_req_deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-07-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 31 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 68.8M | 65.9M to 71.7M | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.5% | 10.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 14.2% | 10.8% to 18.0% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2% | 5.8% to 9.0% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026 Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | 2026-06-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 8.7% | 5.7% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,790 | $2,630 to $2,960 | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.3% | 10.2% to 12.4% | 201 points |
Scored predictions
160 rows · facts from Ledger| prediction | geo | run type | forecast | actual | error | nCRPS | CRPS | PIT | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.5% | +0.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | n/a | 0.49 | 0.90 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May retail sales pack set | +0.3% | +0.9% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.91 | outside |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.70 | inside |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May core PCE bridge pack set | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.037 | 0.57 | inside |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.052 | 0.30 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.35m | 7.59m | +244k | n/a | 186 | 0.64 | inside |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.9% | 2.8% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 5.1% | 4.9% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.12 | 0.23 | inside |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 30.2M | 30.3M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.095 | 0.90 | inside |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | +0.5% | +1.2% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.42 | 0.75 | inside |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | £18.5B | £23.3B | +£4.8B | n/a | 2.87 | 0.85 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 7.0% | 6.6% | -0.4% | n/a | 0.27 | 0.078 | outside |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -10k | 88k | +98k | n/a | 67.9 | 0.94 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.33 | 0.92 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 2.6% | 3.2% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.93 | outside |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Canada | With packs gpt-5 Canada May CPI pack set | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.30 | 0.83 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.63 | inside |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.077 | 1.0 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.40 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May labour pack set | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 15k | 40k | +25k | n/a | 17.3 | 0.67 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 10k | 40k | +30k | n/a | 19.7 | 0.69 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May labour pack set | 20k | 40k | +20k | n/a | 15.5 | 0.62 | inside |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 20k | 40k | +20k | n/a | 14.9 | 0.65 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.40 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.2% | 4.0% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.37 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May CPI pack set | 4.6% | 4.0% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.35 | 0.20 | inside |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.9% | 4.0% | -0.9% | n/a | 0.60 | 0.081 | outside |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.0% | 2.25% | +0.25% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.022 | 0.50 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.0% | 2.8% | +0.8% | n/a | 0.64 | 1.00 | outside |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.062 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.75% | 1.0% | +0.25% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 1.6% | 1.7% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.097 | 0.60 | inside |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.5% | 1.7% | -1.8% | n/a | 1.38 | 0.017 | outside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.5% | +1.1% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.34 | 0.80 | inside |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.44 | inside |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 76.3% | 76.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.15 | 0.44 | inside |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.6% | +1.9% | +1.3% | n/a | 0.89 | 0.93 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.16 | 0.086 | outside |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $2,725B | $2,726.6B | +$1.6B | n/a | 1.87 | 0.59 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $4,997B | $5,024.4B | +$27.4B | n/a | 16.0 | 0.73 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $4,990B | $5,024.4B | +$34.4B | n/a | 20.3 | 0.70 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $4,998B | $5,024.4B | +$26.4B | n/a | 16.3 | 0.69 | inside |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $4,315B | $5,024.4B | +$709.4B | n/a | 697 | 1.00 | outside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,650B | $1,638.1B | -$11.9B | n/a | 7.32 | 0.10 | inside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,650B | $1,638.1B | -$11.9B | n/a | 7.05 | 0.24 | inside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,651B | $1,638.1B | -$12.9B | n/a | 8.43 | 0.088 | outside |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,650.5B | $1,638.1B | -$12.4B | n/a | 7.63 | 0.10 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 3.03 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,330B | $1,332B | +$2B | n/a | 3.99 | 0.54 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 2.60 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,332B | $1,332B | $0B | n/a | 1.30 | 0.50 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $1,041B | $1,052.2B | +$11.2B | n/a | 6.17 | 0.78 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $1,038B | $1,052.2B | +$14.2B | n/a | 8.37 | 0.78 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA social-benefits pack set | $1,041B | $1,052.2B | +$11.2B | n/a | 6.43 | 0.74 | inside |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $1,037.5B | $1,052.2B | +$14.7B | n/a | 8.79 | 0.82 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $13,350B | $13,388.8B | +$38.8B | n/a | 22.3 | 0.78 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $13,345B | $13,388.8B | +$43.8B | n/a | 25.9 | 0.77 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $13,362B | $13,388.8B | +$26.8B | n/a | 16.3 | 0.72 | inside |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $13,365B | $13,388.8B | +$23.8B | n/a | 14.3 | 0.74 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $3,266.8B | $3,264.7B | -$2.1B | n/a | 5.89 | 0.46 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $3,262B | $3,264.7B | +$2.7B | n/a | 8.19 | 0.52 | inside |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $3,268B | $3,264.7B | -$3.3B | n/a | 5.96 | 0.43 | inside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $23,512B | $23,651.7B | +$139.7B | n/a | 89.8 | 0.92 | outside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | $23,500B | $23,651.7B | +$151.7B | n/a | 93.9 | 0.91 | outside |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May BEA personal-income pack set | $23,520B | $23,651.7B | +$131.7B | n/a | 85.0 | 0.92 | outside |
| US PCE price index inflation, May 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.068 | 0.63 | inside |
| US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +1.5% | +2.1% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.41 | 0.93 | outside |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $305B | $292.6B | -$12.4B | n/a | 16.1 | 0.42 | inside |
| CPS business and financial employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 10.04m | 9.72m | -320k | n/a | 188 | 0.21 | inside |
| CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 6.92m | 6.95m | +30k | n/a | 92.9 | 0.53 | inside |
| CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 5.8m | 5.69m | -109k | n/a | 98.5 | 0.39 | inside |
| CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 16.30m | 16.18m | -116k | n/a | 149 | 0.43 | inside |
| CPS production employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 7.9m | 7.76m | -141k | n/a | 112 | 0.36 | inside |
| CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | No packs Codex recorded source-context synthesis Occupation automation control | 12.10m | 12.01m | -90k | n/a | 135 | 0.44 | inside |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.6% | +0.5% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.45 | inside |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.31 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 552k | 544k | -8k | n/a | 5.11 | 0.31 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 556k | 544k | -12k | n/a | 7.42 | 0.28 | inside |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | -2.0% | -7.6% | -5.6% | n/a | 4.04 | 0.34 | inside |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.25 | 0.53 | inside |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.55 | inside |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.19 | 0.55 | inside |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +2.0% | -1.1% | -3.1% | n/a | 3.52 | 0.41 | inside |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.0% | -1.1% | -3.1% | n/a | 3.14 | 0.40 | inside |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.37 | 0.48 | inside |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst reviewed fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | -1.1% | -0.4% | +0.7% | n/a | 0.73 | 0.58 | inside |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.50 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.15 | 0.079 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | n/a | 0.11 | 0.12 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May housing starts pack set | 1.5M | 1.2M | -0.3M | n/a | 0.18 | 0.071 | outside |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.065 | 0.50 | inside |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.077 | 1.0 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 222k | 226k | +4k | n/a | 4.65 | 0.58 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 219k | 226k | +7k | n/a | 5.88 | 0.61 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June weekly claims pack set | 225k | 226k | +1k | n/a | 3.92 | 0.52 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 225k | 226k | +1k | n/a | 3.71 | 0.52 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.0% | 1.4% | -1.6% | n/a | 1.33 | 0.0 | outside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Canada | Primary claude-fable-5 | 2.8% | 3.2% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.24 | 0.82 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 2.6% | 3.2% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.36 | 0.90 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Canada | With packs gpt-5 Canada May CPI pack set | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.28 | 0.79 | inside |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.7% | 3.2% | +0.5% | n/a | 0.28 | 0.79 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Australia | Primary claude-fable-5 | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.43 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 4.1% | 4.0% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.14 | 0.43 | inside |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Australia | With packs gpt-5 Australia May CPI pack set | 4.5% | 4.0% | -0.5% | n/a | 0.30 | 0.25 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 220k | 215k | -5k | n/a | 5.22 | 0.41 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5 No packs | 221k | 215k | -6k | n/a | 5.83 | 0.40 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June weekly claims pack set | 226k | 215k | -11k | n/a | 7.18 | 0.29 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 226k | 215k | -11k | n/a | 7.18 | 0.29 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 225k | 215k | -10k | n/a | 6.14 | 0.26 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.039 | 0.63 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.046 | 0.69 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Brier-1 - PCE bridge packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May core PCE bridge pack set | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.035 | 0.58 | inside |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.035 | 0.58 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 7.4M | 7.6M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.16 | 0.70 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 7.2M | 7.6M | +0.4M | n/a | 0.26 | 0.77 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - JOLTS packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May JOLTS labor pack set | 7.4M | 7.6M | +0.2M | n/a | 0.15 | 0.72 | inside |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.5M | 7.6M | +0.1M | n/a | 0.14 | 0.60 | inside |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Headline | Euro area | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.2% | 2.8% | -0.4% | n/a | 0.25 | 0.10 | inside |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.3% | 2.8% | -0.5% | n/a | 0.32 | 0.10 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 140k | 57k | -83k | n/a | 49.0 | 0.18 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 125k | 57k | -68k | n/a | 43.5 | 0.30 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June labor-market pack set | 150k | 57k | -93k | n/a | 54.5 | 0.18 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 150k | 57k | -93k | n/a | 56.1 | 0.28 | inside |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 140k | 57k | -83k | n/a | 49.0 | 0.18 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.078 | 0.37 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June labor-market pack set | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.074 | 0.30 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.074 | 0.30 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 220k | 215k | -5k | n/a | 4.31 | 0.38 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 218k | 215k | -3k | n/a | 3.29 | 0.41 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 219k | 215k | -4k | n/a | 3.87 | 0.40 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 216k | 215k | -1k | n/a | 2.85 | 0.47 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 217k | 215k | -2k | n/a | 2.66 | 0.42 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul. 4 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-04 Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 218k | 215k | -3k | n/a | 3.33 | 0.41 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0036 | 0.26 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0064 | 0.41 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0036 | 0.26 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0060 | 0.46 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0054 | 0.44 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Jun. 27 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-06-27.first_print Median of 3 rollouts | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0056 | 0.41 | inside |