Thesis Log · prediction records
Thesis Log
Thesis Log records predictions, distributions, trace metadata, resolution links, and scores. Resolved predictions reference facts in the PolicyEngine Ledger.
predictions
530
specs
411
runs
530
resolved
41
pending
370
scored / coverage
51 · 84%
scoring
Scoreboard
mean nCRPS
0.24
lower is better
mean CRPS
3.79
raw units
mean abs error
5.22
raw units
80% coverage
84%
target: 80%
By agent
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thesis.analyst | 55 | 11 | 0.27 | 1.61 | 82% |
| US near-term public outcomes agent | 16 | 7 | 0.22 | 2.82 | 71% |
| UK indicator agent ensemble | 10 | 7 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 100% |
| prototype seed | 313 | 5 | 0.20 | 12.4 | 100% |
| Global near-term indicator source synthesis | 8 | 5 | 0.13 | 1.96 | 100% |
| Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble | 9 | 4 | 0.37 | 17.2 | 50% |
| Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble | 8 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.091 | 100% |
| brier-1.packed | 13 | 3 | 0.32 | 1.51 | 33% |
| scout-2.control | 9 | 3 | 0.23 | 2.16 | 100% |
| Three-agent CPI ensemble | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.048 | 100% |
| brier-1.shadow | 30 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS Employment Projections | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-automation-scenarios | 12 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS OEWS current table | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-projection | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-occupation-wage-pressure | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Occupation automation exposure source synthesis | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| brier-1.control | 3 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By model
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codex recorded agent runs | 27 | 15 | 0.27 | 4.85 | 87% |
| claude-fable-5 | 21 | 7 | 0.18 | 0.74 | 86% |
| Codex recorded agent run | 16 | 7 | 0.22 | 2.82 | 71% |
| unreported model | 313 | 5 | 0.20 | 12.4 | 100% |
| Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 44 | 5 | 0.13 | 1.96 | 100% |
| gpt-5.5 | 34 | 4 | 0.43 | 3.15 | 75% |
| gpt-5 | 39 | 3 | 0.32 | 1.51 | 33% |
| gpt-5-mini | 9 | 3 | 0.23 | 2.16 | 100% |
| Codex recorded agent ensemble | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.048 | 100% |
| gpt-5.4 | 7 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | 6 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By run type
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% | next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 439 | 45 | 0.23 | 4.05 | 87% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| No packs | 51 | 3 | 0.23 | 2.16 | 100% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| With packs | 40 | 3 | 0.32 | 1.51 | 33% | Jun 22, 2026 |
Best nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 | Headline Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.11 | 0.0% | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print | Headline Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.11 | 0.0% | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 | Headline Primary claude-fable-5 | 0.11 | 0.0% | inside |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 | Headline Primary claude-fable-5 | 0.11 | 0.0% | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 | Thesis analyst fast run Primary gpt-5.5 | 0.11 | 0.0% | inside |
Largest nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 | Thesis analyst fast run Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.33 | -1.6% | outside |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print | Headline Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.62 | +98k | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 | Brier-1 - housing packs With packs gpt-5 | 0.51 | -0.3M | outside |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 | Headline Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.51 | +0.25% | inside |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 | Headline Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.51 | +0.25% | inside |
production contract
Specs in, immutable runs out
spec
411 prediction specs
Question, unit, Ledger target ref, allowed tools, CDF schema, and quality gates.
runner
thesis.recorded-agent-runner
Turns a spec, tool context, and optional pack set into one or more public traces, 201-point CDFs, and run records.
store
Thesis Log
Stores prediction runs and scores; observed facts stay in PolicyEngine Ledger.
Resolution queue
370 pending · next 12 shownCanada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026
Canadastatcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05
Statistics Canada, The Daily, Consumer Price Index, May 2026
resolves
Jun 22, 2026
estimate
2.8%
Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
Canadastatcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print
Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index
resolves
Jun 22, 2026
estimate
2.7%
Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026
Australiaabs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print
Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index
resolves
Jun 24, 2026
estimate
4.1%
Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026
Australiaabs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator, May 2026
resolves
Jun 24, 2026
estimate
4.1%
Australia employment change, May 2026
Australiaabs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print
Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
15k
Australia unemployment rate, May 2026
Australiaabs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print
Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
4.5%
Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month
United Statesbea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
+0.2%
US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change
United Statesus.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
+0.3%
US disposable personal income, May 2026
United Statesbea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
$23,512B
US government social benefits, May 2026
United Statesbea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
$4,997B
US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands)
United Statesus.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
220k
US Medicaid benefits, May 2026
United Statesbea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
resolves
Jun 25, 2026
estimate
$1,041B
Recorded predictions
530 rows · 201-point CDFs| prediction | geo | recorded | agent / model | activity | packs | estimate | 80% interval | cdf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPM child poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.1% | 12.0% to 14.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 9.8% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Control · cash trend | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 10.6% | 9.7% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Official poverty rate, 2025 census.official_poverty_rate.2025 Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | Census official-poverty pack set Base-rate-first, Cash-income bridge, ASEC release calibration | 10.3% | 9.7% to 11.0% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $80,600 | $78,600 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Control · trend nowcast | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | $80,100 | $77,500 to $83,300 | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2025 census.asec.median_household_income.2025 Brier-1 · ASEC income packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | ASEC income pack set Base-rate-first, ASEC income nowcast, ASEC release calibration | $80,800 | $78,900 to $82,900 | 201 points |
| SPM child poverty rate, 2027 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.5% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, December 2026 bls.lns14000000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 3.9% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Control · no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.control gpt-5.4 | trace only | No packs none | 2.5% | 1.9% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs · Jun 12 | United States | 2026-06-12 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.6% | 2.0% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026 bls.cpi.u.annual_pct_change.2026 Brier-1 · CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | brier-1.packed gpt-5.4 | trace only | CPI annual-average pack set Base-rate-first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Median household income, 2026 census.asec.median_household_income.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $81,200 | $79,100 to $83,400 | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,740 | $2,580 to $2,910 | 201 points |
| Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4) bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +1.9% | +0.9% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026 census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.1% | 9.2% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| Labor force participation rate, December 2026 bls.lns11300000.2026-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.4% | 61.9% to 62.8% | 201 points |
| CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $183/mo | $83/mo to $250/mo | 201 points |
| Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $109.6B | $78.8B to $140.4B | 201 points |
| CTC outlays under current law, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $60.5B | $52B to $70B | 201 points |
| EITC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $74B | $65B to $84B | 201 points |
| Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $38B | $25B to $55B | 201 points |
| Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $7.25 | $7.25 to $9.50 | 201 points |
| Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $32,000 | $16,000 to $35,000 | 201 points |
| Top individual income tax rate, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.0% | 37.0% to 39.6% | 201 points |
| SALT deduction cap, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $22,000 | $10,000 to $80,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,010 | $975.00 to $1,045 | 201 points |
| SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $128B | $116B to $143B | 201 points |
| ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $94B | $62B to $132B | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82M | 77M to 88M | 201 points |
| SPM poverty rate, 2025 census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.7% | 12.0% to 13.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027 treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $49B | $32B to $78B | 201 points |
| SSI federal payments, FY2027 ssa.ssi.federal_payments.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $75B | $68B to $84B | 201 points |
| Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027 cms.medicaid.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $655B | $600B to $720B | 201 points |
| Children receiving the CTC, TY2026 irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48M | 45M to 51M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027 hud.hcv.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $36B | $32B to $42B | 201 points |
| Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,860B | $1,760B to $1,985B | 201 points |
| Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027 ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,605B | $1,540B to $1,685B | 201 points |
| Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.2B | $4.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| WIC average monthly participation, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.average_monthly_participation.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.9M | 6.3M to 7.6M | 201 points |
| National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27 usda.fns.nslp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 30.4M | 28.8M to 32.3M | 201 points |
| ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027 cms.aca.exchange_qhp_selections.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 19.8M | 14M to 25M | 201 points |
| Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027 cms.medicare.benefit_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,110B | $1,035B to $1,210B | 201 points |
| TANF federal outlays, FY2027 acf.tanf.federal_outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $17B | $15B to $19.5B | 201 points |
| Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027 acf.ccdf.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $12.5B | $9B to $17B | 201 points |
| Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.estate_gift_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $45B | $28B to $72B | 201 points |
| EITC claimant returns, TY2027 irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4M | 21.6M to 25.5M | 201 points |
| Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027 treasury.mts.corporation_income_tax_receipts.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $570B | $430B to $730B | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_persons.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.6M | 37.4M to 44.1M | 201 points |
| Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28 ed.pell.recipients.award_year_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2M | 6.4M to 8.2M | 201 points |
| Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027 acf.head_start.funded_enrollment.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.8M | 0.7M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| TANF average monthly families, FY2027 acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 0.7M | 0.6M to 0.9M | 201 points |
| CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027 acf.ccdf.average_monthly_children_served.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.1M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027 acf.liheap.households_assisted.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.1M | 3.4M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27 fns.sbp.average_daily_participation.sy2026_27 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.2M | 14M to 16.7M | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, December 2027 ssa.ssi.recipients.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 7.1M to 7.7M | 201 points |
| SNAP average monthly households, FY2027 fns.snap.average_monthly_households.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 21.7M | 19.8M to 23.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 36.8M | 34.5M to 39.4M | 201 points |
| Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027 hud.hcv.households_leased.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.3M | 2.2M to 2.5M | 201 points |
| School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027 fns.sbp.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $6.7B | $5.8B to $7.8B | 201 points |
| Child support distributed collections, FY2027 acf.ocss.distributed_collections.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $27.8B | $25B to $31B | 201 points |
| Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027 ed.pell.outlays.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $34.5B | $28B to $43B | 201 points |
| WIC federal outlays, FY2027 usda.fns.wic.federal_cost.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.5B | $7.2B to $10B | 201 points |
| LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027 acf.liheap.federal_funding.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $4.1B | $2.4B to $6.8B | 201 points |
| OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70M | 68.8M to 71.4M | 201 points |
| Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5M to 7M | 201 points |
| Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026 irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8M | 7.4M to 15.2M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026 irs.soi.additional_child_tax_credit_returns.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.2M | 13.2M to 19.6M | 201 points |
| Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026 irs.soi.itemized_charitable_contributions.ty2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $305B | $245B to $375B | 201 points |
| Medicare total enrollment, December 2027 cms.medicare.total_beneficiaries.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 70.7M | 69.2M to 72.3M | 201 points |
| Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027 ssa.oasdi.retired_worker_average_benefit.2027-12 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,190/mo | $2,110/mo to $2,285/mo | 201 points |
| Refundable CTC amount, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,800 | $1,000 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8,500 | $8,050 to $9,100 | 201 points |
| SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.average_benefit_per_person.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $232/mo | $216/mo to $252/mo | 201 points |
| ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027 cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $560/mo to $860/mo | 201 points |
| Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026 dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 214k | 197k to 233k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85k | -60k to 220k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, May 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | +0.3% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May retail sales pack set Base-rate first, Consumer-spending nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | -0.3% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, Apr 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.8M | 39.5M to 42.2M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1M | 76.2M to 82.6M | 201 points |
| Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | Three-agent CPI ensemble Codex recorded agent ensemble | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings_total.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.45m | 6.8m to 8.15m | 201 points |
| SNAP four-person maximum allotment, FY2027 usda.fns.snap.maximum_allotment.household_size_4.48dc.fy2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $1,022/mo | $1,005/mo to $1,045/mo | 201 points |
| HHS poverty guideline, family of four, 2027 hhs.aspe.poverty_guideline.household_size_4.48dc.2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $33,920 | $33,520 to $34,480 | 201 points |
| Child Tax Credit maximum, TY2027 irs.irc24.child_tax_credit.maximum.ty2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,300 | $2,200 to $2,500 | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, March 2026 usda.fns.snap.participation.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.1M | 36.4M to 37.8M | 201 points |
| WIC total participation, March 2026 usda.fns.wic.total_participants.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.6M | 6.5M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.4M | 74M to 74.8M | 201 points |
| IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026 irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $370B | $360B to $382B | 201 points |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.9% | 2.6% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Apr-Jun 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.april_to_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.7% to 5.7% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Jul-Sep 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.july_to_september_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.2% | 4.6% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.october_to_december_2026.first_print Thesis analyst live run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 8 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 5.1% | 4.4% to 5.9% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 30.2M | 30M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.6% to 1.6% | 201 points |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | £18.5B | £13B to £24B | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-04 | UK indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 7.0% | 6.7% to 7.3% | 201 points |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | -10k | -60k to 50k | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.7% | 2.3% to 3.1% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.2% to 3.0% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, April 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.25% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.5% | 4.1% to 4.9% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, May 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.5% | 4.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 15k | -45k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 10k | -55k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May labour pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 20k | -35k to 85k | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, May 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 20k | -35k to 75k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.7% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.6% | 3.8% to 5.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Australia | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.9% | 4.2% to 5.6% | 201 points |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-04 | Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 4.35% | 4.35% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 2.0% to 2.25% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 3.1% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, June 2026 flash eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.june_2026.flash Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 2.8% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 6.3% | 6.2% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, May 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 6.3% | 6.1% to 6.5% | 201 points |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 0.75% | 0.75% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.5% | 1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 1.6% | 1.2% to 2.0% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual inflation, June 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.june_2026.preliminary Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.5% | 2.7% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble Codex recorded agent runs | trace only | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| Japan unemployment rate, May 2026 statjp.lfs.unemployment_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.5% | 2.3% to 2.8% | 201 points |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.5% | -0.2% to 1.3% | 201 points |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 76.3% | 75.6% to 76.9% | 201 points |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.3% to 1.5% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $2,725B | $2,716.5B to $2,732.5B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $4,997B | $4,955B to $5,045B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $4,990B | $4,935B to $5,060B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $4,998B | $4,950B to $5,055B | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $4,315B | $4,295B to $4,338B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,650B | $1,638B to $1,662B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,650B | $1,632B to $1,668B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,651B | $1,640B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Social Security benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,650.5B | $1,638B to $1,663B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,332B | $1,318B to $1,346B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,330B | $1,312B to $1,348B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,332B | $1,320B to $1,344B | 201 points |
| US Medicare benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,332B | $1,326B to $1,338B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $1,041B | $1,029B to $1,057B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $1,038B | $1,018B to $1,058B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA social-benefits pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $1,041B | $1,025B to $1,060B | 201 points |
| US Medicaid benefits, May 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $1,037.5B | $1,018B to $1,056B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $13,350B | $13,300B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $13,345B | $13,280B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | $13,362B | $13,315B to $13,410B | 201 points |
| US wages and salaries, May 2026 bea.wages_and_salaries.level.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $13,365B | $13,325B to $13,405B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $3,266.8B | $3,247.5B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $3,262B | $3,235B to $3,310B | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, May 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $3,268B | $3,248B to $3,301B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $23,512B | $23,445B to $23,615B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | $23,500B | $23,420B to $23,625B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, May 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | May BEA personal-income pack set Base-rate first, Release-vintage calibration | $23,520B | $23,445B to $23,620B | 201 points |
| US PCE price index inflation, May 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | +1.5% | +1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-06 | US near-term public outcomes agent Codex recorded agent run | trace only | unreported | $305B | $240B to $380B | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.42m | 10.05m to 10.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 10.48m | 10.13m to 10.86m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 10.35m | 10.35m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.85m | 5.55m to 6.15m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 5.9m | 5.62m to 6.21m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 5.78m | 5.78m to 5.78m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.42m | 7.05m to 7.8m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 7.48m | 7.12m to 7.86m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 7.34m | 7.34m to 7.34m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.65m | 17.20m to 18.05m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.59m | 17.14m to 17.98m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 17.78m | 17.78m to 17.78m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.52m | 8.15m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.5m | 8.12m to 8.88m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 8.59m | 8.59m to 8.59m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation synthesis - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | Occupation automation exposure source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.05m | 13.50m to 14.65m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS projections pack | United States | 2026-06-17 | brier-occupation-projection Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.11m | 13.58m to 14.70m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print BLS-implied 2026 baseline | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolation | trace only | unreported | 14.01m | 14.01m to 14.01m | 201 points |
| CPS business and financial employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 10.04m | 9.6m to 10.48m | 201 points |
| CPS computer and mathematical employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.92m | 6.5m to 7.35m | 201 points |
| CPS healthcare support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 5.8m | 5.4m to 6.2m | 201 points |
| CPS office and administrative support employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 16.30m | 15.65m to 16.95m | 201 points |
| CPS production employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 7.9m | 7.5m to 8.35m | 201 points |
| CPS transportation and material moving employment, June 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.june_2026.first_print CPS fast proxy | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-cps-occupation-fast-proxy Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 12.10m | 11.50m to 12.70m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 11.48m | 10.35m to 12.80m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 11.71m | 10.65m to 12.75m | 201 points |
| Business and financial occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_13_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 11.85m | 11.85m to 11.85m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 6.3m | 5.0m to 7.6m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 6.12m | 5.12m to 7.25m | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_15_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 5.96m | 5.96m to 5.96m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 9.1m | 8.1m to 10.35m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 9.02m | 8.15m to 9.9m | 201 points |
| Healthcare support occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.97m | 8.97m to 8.97m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 17.20m | 14.50m to 19.40m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 17.85m | 15.30m to 19.45m | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_43_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 18.56m | 18.56m to 18.56m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 8.55m | 7.6m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 8.75m | 7.8m to 9.65m | 201 points |
| Production occupation employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_51_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 8.9m | 8.9m to 8.9m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - no BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation automation control none | 14.25m | 12.50m to 16.10m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print Brier long-run - BLS pack | United States | 2026-06-22 | brier-occupation-automation-scenarios Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline BLS employment projections baseline | 14.58m | 12.80m to 16.15m | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving employment, 2034 bls.employment_projections.national_occupation_employment.soc_53_0000.2034.actual_first_print BLS published projection | United States | 2025-08-28 | BLS Employment Projections BLS 2024-2034 projection release | trace only | unreported | 14.78m | 14.78m to 14.78m | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $85,800 | $82,500 to $89,200 | 201 points |
| Business and financial median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_13_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $82,660 | $82,160 to $83,160 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $112,900 | $108,600 to $117,800 | 201 points |
| Computer and mathematical median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_15_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $109,280 | $108,780 to $109,780 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $40,100 | $38,500 to $41,900 | 201 points |
| Healthcare support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $38,340 | $37,840 to $38,840 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $49,000 | $47,100 to $51,100 | 201 points |
| Office and administrative support median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_43_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $47,450 | $46,950 to $47,950 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $48,700 | $46,700 to $50,900 | 201 points |
| Production median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_51_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $46,990 | $46,490 to $47,490 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print Occupation wage pressure - no projection pack | United States | 2026-06-21 | brier-occupation-wage-pressure Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | Occupation wage pressure control none | $45,900 | $44,000 to $48,000 | 201 points |
| Transportation and material moving median wage, May 2026 bls.oews.national_occupation_median_annual_wage.soc_53_0000.may_2026.first_print May 2025 OEWS carry-forward | United States | 2026-05-15 | BLS OEWS current table May 2025 annual median wage carry-forward baseline | trace only | unreported | $44,350 | $43,850 to $44,850 | 201 points |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.6% | -0.2% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.2% | -1.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | 552k | 536k to 570k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 556k | 535k to 580k | 201 points |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -2.0% | -16.0% to 13.0% | 201 points |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.0% | -1.1% to 1.2% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Euro area retail trade volume growth, May 2026 eurostat.retail_trade.volume_mom.euro_area.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.1% | -0.8% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Australia dwelling approvals growth, May 2026 abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.may_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | +2.0% | -12.0% to 18.0% | 201 points |
| Japan real household spending growth, May 2026 statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | 2026-06-06 | Global near-term indicator source synthesis Codex recorded source-context synthesis | trace only | unreported | -0.3% | -2.0% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| Individual income tax refunds, FY2026 treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $486B | $455B to $525B | 201 points |
| Net PTC reconciliation amount, TY2025 irs.soi.net_premium_tax_credit_reconciliation.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $8.6B | $6.4B to $11.2B | 201 points |
| Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025 irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.9M | 5.3M to 6.6M | 201 points |
| Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026 cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.4M | 75.8M to 83.8M | 201 points |
| Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025 census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.6% | 9.9% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027 cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.2M | 2.4M to 4.4M | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.50 per 1,000 | 5.34 per 1,000 to 5.72 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| Infant mortality 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.ctc_3000_refundable.final Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.40 per 1,000 | 5.16 per 1,000 to 5.66 per 1,000 | 201 points |
| SNAP cumulative redemptions, FY2026 usda.fns.snap.benefit_redemptions.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $111.5B | $103B to $122B | 201 points |
| WIC child participation, FY2026 usda.fns.wic.child_participation.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.9M | 3.6M to 4.2M | 201 points |
| CCDF payment per child, FY2026 hhs.acf.ccdf.average_monthly_payment_per_child.fy2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $690/mo | $610/mo to $800/mo | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 9.3% to 11.2% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 88.5% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 8.6% to 22.6% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.9% to 10.1% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.1% | 5.8% to 10.3% | 201 points |
| California SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.0% to 12.4% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.5% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.4% | 8.8% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.5% | 14.1% to 18.9% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.6% | 3.4% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.6% | 13.3% to 17.9% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 16.4% | 13.6% to 19.2% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.5% | 2.4% to 12.6% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 0.3% to 10.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 4.8% to 7.7% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.5% | 2.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 10.0% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.7% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 7.3% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.5% to 11.3% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.5% | 5.2% to 7.8% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 15.0% | 11.9% to 18.1% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.2% | 8.5% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.3% | 6.7% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 7.5% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.2% to 11.8% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.0% | 7.4% to 10.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.7% | 9.4% to 12.0% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.5% | 7.0% to 11.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.2% | 8.9% to 11.5% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.4% | 5.6% to 9.2% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.2% to 6.7% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 6.2% | 2.7% to 9.7% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.8% | 1.8% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.5% | 13.2% to 15.8% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.6% | 4.2% to 7.0% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 14.3% | 12.6% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.4% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.8% | 9.5% to 12.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.2% | 10.9% to 15.6% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.1% | 5.2% to 13.1% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 12.1% | 10.8% to 13.4% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 0.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 3.1% | 1.8% to 4.4% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.5% | 6.0% to 11.1% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.6% | 6.8% to 10.4% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.8% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.8% | 9.9% to 13.6% | 201 points |
| Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 1.7% | 0.3% to 6.1% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.2% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.7% | 4.4% to 7.1% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 2.8% to 5.5% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 8.9% | 7.1% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025 fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 5.0% | 3.7% to 6.3% | 201 points |
| Alaska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ak.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.0% | 55.0% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Alabama SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.al.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.0% | 90.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Arkansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ar.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.7% | 55.6% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Arizona SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.az.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.8% to 92.8% | 201 points |
| California SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ca.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.1% | 77.1% to 83.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.co.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.2% to 71.5% | 201 points |
| Connecticut SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.1% | 83.5% to 92.7% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.dc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.7% | 52.8% to 66.7% | 201 points |
| Delaware SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.de.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 71.1% | 62.1% to 80.1% | 201 points |
| Florida SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.fl.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.4% | 60.9% to 65.8% | 201 points |
| Georgia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ga.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.4% | 56.0% to 72.7% | 201 points |
| Guam SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.gu.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.1% | 40.1% to 56.2% | 201 points |
| Hawaii SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.hi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.3% | 61.6% to 73.0% | 201 points |
| Iowa SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ia.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 61.1% | 52.1% to 70.1% | 201 points |
| Idaho SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.id.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.2% to 95.4% | 201 points |
| Illinois SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.il.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 90.1% to 96.4% | 201 points |
| Indiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.in.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 78.1% to 83.9% | 201 points |
| Kansas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ks.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.6% | 80.4% to 84.8% | 201 points |
| Kentucky SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ky.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.2% | 82.6% to 99.5% | 201 points |
| Louisiana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.la.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 79.3% to 91.4% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ma.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 83.5% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Maryland SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.md.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 87.8% to 98.9% | 201 points |
| Maine SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.me.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.1% | 49.1% to 67.1% | 201 points |
| Michigan SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 73.2% to 78.7% | 201 points |
| Minnesota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.1% | 74.0% to 84.2% | 201 points |
| Missouri SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mo.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.6% | 70.5% to 82.6% | 201 points |
| Mississippi SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ms.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.6% | 74.5% to 82.7% | 201 points |
| Montana SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.mt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 64.9% | 58.4% to 71.4% | 201 points |
| North Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.5% | 76.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| North Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 58.6% | 54.4% to 62.9% | 201 points |
| Nebraska SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ne.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.7% | 85.5% to 91.8% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 85.8% to 92.2% | 201 points |
| New Jersey SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nj.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.7% | 72.2% to 81.2% | 201 points |
| New Mexico SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nm.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 48.6% | 39.6% to 57.6% | 201 points |
| Nevada SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.nv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 91.1% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| New York SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ny.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.4% | 79.4% to 97.4% | 201 points |
| Ohio SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.oh.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.1% | 89.9% to 94.3% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ok.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 86.4% to 91.1% | 201 points |
| Oregon SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.or.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.8% | 63.2% to 76.4% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.pa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.2% | 87.3% to 93.0% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ri.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.9% | 91.1% to 98.8% | 201 points |
| South Carolina SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sc.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.5% | 71.5% to 77.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.sd.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.3% | 81.5% to 89.1% | 201 points |
| Tennessee SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tn.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 35.0% | 30.0% to 44.0% | 201 points |
| Texas SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.tx.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 73.7% | 67.6% to 79.8% | 201 points |
| Utah SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.ut.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.3% | 82.5% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.va.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.3% | 77.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| Vermont SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.vt.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.8% to 88.4% | 201 points |
| Washington SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wa.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 85.6% to 93.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wi.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 95.5% | 92.6% to 98.4% | 201 points |
| West Virginia SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wv.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 68.3% to 80.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming SNAP application timeliness, FY 2025 fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.wy.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 90.3% | 87.3% to 93.2% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 53.4% | 40.5% to 66.2% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 57.1% | 51.9% to 62.2% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.8% | 85.6% to 93.9% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 85.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| California Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ca.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 78.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.8% | 68.5% to 81.0% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.8% | 93.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.8% | 61.8% to 89.8% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 42.2% | 37.0% to 47.5% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.6% | 78.2% to 88.9% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 63.2% | 51.1% to 75.4% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.3% | 64.3% to 92.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.7% | 73.4% to 90.0% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.8% | 48.8% to 76.8% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 56.4% | 49.1% to 63.7% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 84.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.7% | 52.7% to 80.7% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.4% | 63.5% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 76.0% | 68.7% to 83.4% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 91.6% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 80.9% | 74.6% to 87.2% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 86.5% | 82.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 85.9% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.5% | 47.7% to 73.4% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.6% | 79.5% to 89.7% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 95.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 68.5% to 85.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 84.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 67.6% | 53.6% to 81.6% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.4% | 64.4% to 92.4% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.4% | 52.4% to 80.4% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 96.1% | 82.1% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 26.2% | 12.2% to 40.2% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.6% | 55.6% to 83.6% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.2% | 74.0% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.3% | 74.9% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.8% | 30.3% to 57.4% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.4% | 84.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 81.8% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.3% | 64.1% to 86.6% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 69.0% | 61.2% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 13.5% | 10.1% to 17.0% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 61.7% to 82.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.0% | 46.0% to 74.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.8% | 76.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.9% | 91.2% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.4% | 51.0% to 67.8% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 75.3% to 88.5% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.ex_parte_renewal_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.7% | 63.7% to 91.7% | 201 points |
| Alaska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ak.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 84.1% | 70.1% to 98.1% | 201 points |
| Alabama Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.al.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 23.4% | 18.6% to 28.3% | 201 points |
| Arkansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ar.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 69.0% to 85.0% | 201 points |
| Arizona Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.az.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.9% | 69.2% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.co.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 68.9% | 54.9% to 82.9% | 201 points |
| Connecticut Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ct.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 43.9% | 29.9% to 57.9% | 201 points |
| District of Columbia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.dc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Delaware Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.de.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 75.0% | 63.6% to 86.4% | 201 points |
| Florida Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.fl.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 62.2% | 48.2% to 76.2% | 201 points |
| Georgia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ga.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 51.0% | 44.3% to 57.8% | 201 points |
| Hawaii Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.hi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 81.0% | 74.1% to 87.9% | 201 points |
| Iowa Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ia.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.8% | 62.3% to 83.3% | 201 points |
| Idaho Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.id.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 2.0% | 1.0% to 16.0% | 201 points |
| Illinois Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.il.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.8% | 76.4% to 91.3% | 201 points |
| Indiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.in.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 92.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Kansas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ks.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 39.4% | 27.1% to 51.7% | 201 points |
| Kentucky Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ky.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 74.2% | 60.2% to 88.2% | 201 points |
| Louisiana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.la.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 97.8% | 83.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Massachusetts Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ma.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 49.3% | 35.3% to 63.3% | 201 points |
| Maryland Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.3% | 83.5% to 95.1% | 201 points |
| Maine Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.me.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 77.3% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Michigan Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.2% | 80.8% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Minnesota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.1% | 78.5% to 95.6% | 201 points |
| Missouri Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mo.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.1% | 89.8% to 98.5% | 201 points |
| Mississippi Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ms.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 82.4% | 77.1% to 87.7% | 201 points |
| Montana Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.mt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.0% | 63.1% to 90.9% | 201 points |
| North Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 59.6% | 54.8% to 64.4% | 201 points |
| North Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.4% | 74.3% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| Nebraska Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ne.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 37.5% | 30.9% to 44.1% | 201 points |
| New Hampshire Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 88.9% | 82.0% to 95.9% | 201 points |
| New Jersey Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nj.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.2% | 75.2% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| New Mexico Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nm.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 89.6% | 84.6% to 94.7% | 201 points |
| Nevada Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.nv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 78.7% | 68.0% to 89.4% | 201 points |
| New York Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ny.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 66.8% | 56.8% to 76.7% | 201 points |
| Ohio Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.oh.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 98.0% | 88.0% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oklahoma Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ok.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 92.5% | 79.9% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Oregon Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.or.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.0% | 54.6% to 75.5% | 201 points |
| Pennsylvania Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.pa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 40.0% | 29.1% to 50.9% | 201 points |
| Rhode Island Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ri.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.6% | 63.6% to 91.6% | 201 points |
| South Carolina Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sc.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 22.4% | 12.1% to 32.6% | 201 points |
| South Dakota Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.sd.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.7% | 76.1% to 95.3% | 201 points |
| Tennessee Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tn.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 65.9% | 56.6% to 75.2% | 201 points |
| Texas Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.tx.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 72.1% | 58.1% to 86.1% | 201 points |
| Utah Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ut.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 91.3% | 87.0% to 95.5% | 201 points |
| Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.va.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 87.5% | 73.5% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Vermont Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.vt.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 93.3% | 86.7% to 99.0% | 201 points |
| Washington Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wa.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 85.5% | 80.4% to 90.7% | 201 points |
| Wisconsin Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wi.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 60.2% | 50.1% to 70.3% | 201 points |
| West Virginia Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wv.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 83.1% | 77.2% to 89.0% | 201 points |
| Wyoming Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026 cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.wy.aug_2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 77.5% | 64.7% to 90.4% | 201 points |
| SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025 fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 79.2% | 69.8% to 86.8% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 9.4% | 8.2% to 10.7% | 201 points |
| SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 10.3% | 9.0% to 11.7% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline holds cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_holds Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 33 min | 26 min to 43 min | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 | work-requirement deadline delayed cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027.deadline_delayed Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 15 min | 12 min to 18 min | 201 points |
| Probability the Medicaid work-requirement deadline holds through Q1 2027 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 89.0% | 80.0% to 94.0% | 201 points |
| Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional) cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 29.4 min | 19.7 min to 38.4 min | 201 points |
| California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80% cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 94.5% | 91.5% to 96.5% | 201 points |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.1% | -0.5% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May housing starts pack set Base-rate first, Housing activity nowcast, Release-vintage calibration | 1.5M | 1.3M to 1.6M | 201 points |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.0% | 2.7% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 3.75% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.75% | 3.75% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.75% | 3.5% to 4.0% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 222k | 202k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 219k | 197k to 244k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 225k | 207k to 243k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-16 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 209k to 243k | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 1.4% | 1.0% to 1.8% | 201 points |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.0% | 2.5% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Canada | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 2.8% | 2.3% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 2.6% | 2.1% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Canada | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Canada May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 2.7% | 2.1% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Australia | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - no packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 4.1% | 3.5% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia monthly CPI indicator (all-groups) annual inflation, May 2026 abs.cpi_indicator.allgroups.yoy.2026-05 Brier-1 - packs | Australia | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | Australia May CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Release-vintage calibration | 4.5% | 3.7% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 220k | 198k to 242k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | No packs none | 221k | 198k to 246k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Brier-1 - packs | United States | 2026-06-20 | brier-1.shadow gpt-5 | trace only | June weekly claims pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 226k | 205k to 250k | 201 points |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-20 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-20 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 225k | 208k to 243k | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Brier-1 - PCE bridge packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May core PCE bridge pack set Base-rate first, PCE-CPI bridge, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US core PCE price index, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 7.4M | 6.9M to 7.9M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 7.2M | 6.6M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Brier-1 - JOLTS packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | May JOLTS labor pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 7.4M | 7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| JOLTS job openings, May 2026 (first print) bls.jolts.job_openings.may_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 7.5M | 6.9M to 8.1M | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Headline | Euro area | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 3.2% | 2.8% to 3.6% | 201 points |
| Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, June 2026 eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-06 Thesis analyst fast run | Euro area | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 3.3% | 2.8% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 125k | -10k to 265k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 150k | 35k to 260k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 150k | -20k to 310k | 201 points |
| Nonfarm payroll change, June 2026 (first print) bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 140k | 35k to 245k | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | 4.3% | 4.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - labor packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June labor-market pack set Base-rate first, Labor-market momentum, Release-vintage calibration | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print) bls.cps.unemployment_rate.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | 4.3% | 4.1% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | $25B | $-90B to $170B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $72B | $-35B to $210B | 201 points |
| U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS) treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | $155B | $20B to $310B | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.0% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - CPI energy packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June monthly CPI pack set Base-rate first, Energy price nowcast, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.5% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.4% | +0.1% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-06-12 | thesis.analyst claude-fable-5 | trace only | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Scout-2 - no packs | United States | 2026-06-14 | scout-2.control gpt-5-mini | trace only | No packs none | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Brier-1 - core CPI packs | United States | 2026-06-15 | brier-1.packed gpt-5 | trace only | June core CPI pack set Base-rate first, CPI component decomposition, Tariff pass-through, Release-vintage calibration | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA) bls.cpi.u.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | United States | 2026-06-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 9 artifacts prompt, command, stdout | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.5% | 10.3% to 12.8% | 201 points |
| Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 7.2% | 5.8% to 9.0% | 201 points |
| Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | $2,790 | $2,630 to $2,960 | 201 points |
| Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028 Headline | United States | seed | prototype seed unreported model | trace only | unreported | 11.3% | 10.2% to 12.4% | 201 points |
Scored predictions
51 rows · facts from Ledger| prediction | geo | run type | forecast | actual | error | nCRPS | CRPS | PIT | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims, week ending Jun 6 2026 dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06 Headline | United States | Primary unreported model | 214k | 229k | +15k | 0.24 | 8.56 | 0.82 | inside |
| Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary unreported model | 85k | 172k | +87k | 0.19 | 52.9 | 0.76 | inside |
| Unemployment rate, May 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary unreported model | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.5% | +0.5% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Headline | United States | Primary unreported model | +0.2% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.90 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.90 | inside |
| Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance Brier-1 - spending packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May retail sales pack set | +0.3% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.91 | outside |
| Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary unreported model | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | 0.16 | 0.062 | 0.70 | inside |
| Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent ensemble | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | 0.18 | 0.053 | 0.30 | inside |
| UK monthly GDP growth, April 2026 ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| UK CPI annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.9% | 2.8% | -0.1% | 0.13 | 0.079 | 0.37 | inside |
| UK unemployment rate, Feb-Apr 2026 ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 5.1% | 4.9% | -0.2% | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.23 | inside |
| UK PAYE payrolled employees, May 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 30.2M | 30.3M | +0.2M | 0.29 | 0.094 | 0.90 | inside |
| Great Britain retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | +0.5% | +1.2% | +0.7% | 0.19 | 0.42 | 0.75 | inside |
| UK public sector net borrowing, May 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | £18.5B | £23.3B | +£4.8B | 0.26 | 2.83 | 0.85 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate, June 2026 MPC boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.027 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Canada unemployment rate, May 2026 statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 7.0% | 6.6% | -0.4% | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.078 | outside |
| Canada employment change, May 2026 statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | -10k | 88k | +98k | 0.62 | 68.3 | 0.94 | outside |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate, June 2026 bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0.0% | 0.30 | 0.076 | 1.0 | inside |
| RBA cash rate target, June 2026 rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026 Headline | Australia | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.027 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| ECB deposit facility rate, June 2026 ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026 Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 2.0% | 2.25% | +0.25% | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.022 | 0.50 | inside |
| Bank of Japan policy-rate guideline, June 2026 boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026 Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 0.75% | 1.0% | +0.25% | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.90 | inside |
| Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026 statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print Headline | Japan | Primary Codex recorded agent runs | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| US PPI final demand inflation, May 2026 bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.5% | +1.1% | +0.6% | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.80 | inside |
| US industrial production growth, May 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.44 | inside |
| US capacity utilization, May 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 76.3% | 76.2% | -0.1% | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.44 | inside |
| US import price inflation, May 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | +0.6% | +1.9% | +1.3% | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.93 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.086 | outside |
| US total business inventories, April 2026 census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $2,725B | $2,726.6B | +$1.6B | 0.12 | 1.88 | 0.59 | inside |
| US federal monthly deficit, May 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print Headline | United States | Primary Codex recorded agent run | $305B | $292.6B | -$12.4B | 0.12 | 16.2 | 0.42 | inside |
| Canada retail sales growth, April 2026 statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.6% | +0.5% | -0.1% | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.45 | inside |
| Canada wholesale sales growth, April 2026 statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.4% | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.63 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | 552k | 544k | -8k | 0.15 | 5.08 | 0.31 | inside |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, April 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print Thesis analyst fast run | Canada | Primary gpt-5.5 | 556k | 544k | -12k | 0.17 | 7.49 | 0.28 | inside |
| Canada building permit value growth, April 2026 statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | -2.0% | -7.6% | -5.6% | 0.14 | 3.99 | 0.34 | inside |
| Euro area industrial production growth, April 2026 eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | Primary Codex recorded source-context synthesis | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.53 | inside |
| US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.50 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | 0.44 | 0.15 | 0.079 | outside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.2M | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.12 | inside |
| US housing starts, May 2026, total SAAR (millions) us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05 Brier-1 - housing packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 May housing starts pack set | 1.5M | 1.2M | -0.3M | 0.51 | 0.19 | 0.071 | outside |
| UK CPIH annual inflation, May 2026 ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.065 | 0.50 | inside |
| FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | 0.30 | 0.076 | 1.0 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Headline | United Kingdom | Primary claude-fable-5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.027 | 2.4e-7 | inside |
| Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18 Thesis analyst fast run | United Kingdom | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.054 | 0.50 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Headline | United States | Primary claude-fable-5 | 222k | 226k | +4k | 0.12 | 4.61 | 0.58 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Scout-2 - no packs | United States | No packs gpt-5-mini No packs | 219k | 226k | +7k | 0.12 | 5.87 | 0.61 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Brier-1 - claims packs | United States | With packs gpt-5 June weekly claims pack set | 225k | 226k | +1k | 0.11 | 3.93 | 0.52 | inside |
| US initial unemployment claims, week ending 2026-06-13 (thousands) us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13 Thesis analyst fast run | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 225k | 226k | +1k | 0.11 | 3.71 | 0.52 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Headline | Japan | Primary claude-fable-5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.11 | 0.087 | 0.50 | inside |
| Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food) year-over-year inflation, May 2026 estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05 Thesis analyst fast run | Japan | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.0% | 1.4% | -1.6% | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.0 | outside |