Thesis Log · prediction records
Thesis Log
Thesis Log records predictions, distributions, trace metadata, resolution events, and scores. Resolved predictions reference facts in the PolicyEngine Ledger. The machine-readable v3 surface is a compact manifest whose hash-verified chunks preserve every full entry, spec, run, and score.
predictions
344
specs
224
runs
344
resolved
62
pending
162
scored / coverage
80 · 74%
scoring
Scoreboard
mean nCRPS
1.14
lower is better
mean CRPS
5.17
raw units
mean abs error
7.24
raw units
80% coverage
74%
target: 80%
By agent
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thesis.analyst | 282 | 62 | 1.11 | 5.63 | 79% |
| brier.time_series_prior | 18 | 18 | 1.17 | 3.59 | 56% |
| thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 | 26 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| thesis.analyst.ladder | 18 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By model
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5.5 | 230 | 57 | 0.93 | 4.85 | 84% |
| persistence.last_print | 18 | 18 | 1.17 | 3.59 | 56% |
| gpt-5.6-sol | 61 | 5 | 2.35 | 14.5 | 20% |
| gpt-5.6-terra | 24 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6-luna | 10 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| gpt-5.6 | 1 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
By run type
| group | runs | scored | nCRPS | CRPS | 80% | next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | 344 | 80 | 1.14 | 5.17 | 74% | Jul 14, 2026 |
Best nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US initial claims, week ending Sep 5 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.22 | 0k | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-08-29 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.22 | +1k | inside |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.28 | +0M | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.32 | -6k | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Sep. 12, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 0.33 | -5k | inside |
Largest nCRPS
| prediction | run | nCRPS | error | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 4.00 | +0M | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 3.00 | -28k | outside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print | Headline Primary gpt-5.5 | 2.98 | +0M | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 | Headline Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 2.85 | -29k | outside |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-12 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12.first_print | Ledger persistence baseline Primary persistence.last_print | 2.82 | -0.1M | outside |
production contract
Specs in, immutable runs out
spec
224 prediction specs
Question, unit, Ledger target ref, allowed tools, CDF schema, and quality gates.
runner
thesis.recorded-agent-runner
Turns a spec, tool context, and optional pack set into one or more public traces, 201-point CDFs, and run records.
store
Thesis Log
Stores prediction runs and scores; observed facts stay in PolicyEngine Ledger.
Resolution queue
162 pending · next 12 shownUK claimant count, June 2026
United Kingdomons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print
Office for National Statistics, CLA01: Claimant Count and Vacancies
resolves
Jul 14, 2026
estimate
1.73m
Euro-area construction production, May 2026
Euro areaeurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print
Eurostat Production in construction release and sts_copr_m data table
resolves
Jul 20, 2026
estimate
+105.7
UK CPI Annual Rate, June 2026
United Kingdomons.cpi.annual_rate.june_2026.first_print
Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2026
resolves
Jul 21, 2026
estimate
2.9%
UK PAYE Payrolled Employees, June 2026
United Kingdomons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print
ONS/HMRC Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK
resolves
Jul 21, 2026
estimate
30.3M
UK PSNB ex Banks, June 2026
United Kingdomons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.june_2026.first_print
resolves
Jul 21, 2026
estimate
£24.8B
US New Home Sales SAAR, June 2026
United Statescensus.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_06.first_print
resolves
Jul 24, 2026
estimate
590k
US defense capital-goods inventories, June 2026
United Statescensus.m3.defense_capital_goods.inventories.2026_06.first_print
resolves
Jul 27, 2026
estimate
$28.4B
Australia CPI annual rate, June 2026
Australiaabs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print
Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, Australia release and Data API
resolves
Jul 29, 2026
estimate
4.2%
US opening-establishment job gains, Q4 2025
United Statesbls.bed.private_gross_job_gains.opening_establishments.2025_q4.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics release
resolves
Jul 29, 2026
estimate
1.64m
US PCE Prices, June 2026
United Statesbea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.june_2026.first_print
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays release
resolves
Jul 29, 2026
estimate
-0.1%
US personal current taxes, June 2026
United Statesbea.personal_current_taxes.level.june_2026.first_print
Registered ALFRED mirror of BEA Personal Income and Outlays, Table 1
resolves
Jul 29, 2026
estimate
$3,277.2B
Australia June building approvals
Australiaabs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Approvals, Australia
resolves
Jul 30, 2026
estimate
+1.5%
Recorded predictions
344 rows · 201-point CDFs| prediction | geo | recorded | agent / model | activity | packs | estimate | 80% interval | cdf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US nonfarm payrolls change, October 2026 bls.ces.nonfarm_payrolls.change.2026_10.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-10-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 40k | -80k to 160k | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual rate, Oct. 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_10.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-10-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 2.8% | 2.2% to 3.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS job openings, October 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.2026_10.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-10-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 7.1M | 6.7M to 7.5M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, October 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026_10.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-10-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 1.9% | 1.73% to 2.07% | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, October 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_10.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-10-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-26 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-26.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 38 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 1.7M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-09-19 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-19 Headline | United States | 2026-09-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 207k | 189k to 225k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-19 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-19.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| CPS transportation/material moving employment, Sep 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12.1M | 11.9M to 12.3M | 201 points |
| Australia Employment Change, September 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.september_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-09-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 18k | -29k to 65k | 201 points |
| Belgium NBB business barometer, September 2026 nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-09.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -13.1 | -15.9 to -10.3 | 201 points |
| Belgium consumer confidence, September 2026 nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-09.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -8.0 | -12.5 to -3.5 | 201 points |
| Belgium CPI Inflation September 2026 statbel.cpi.headline_yoy.2026-09.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.85% | 2.81% to 4.89% | 201 points |
| Belgium health-index inflation, September 2026 statbel.health_index.yoy.2026-09.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.85% | 2.96% to 4.74% | 201 points |
| US computer and math employment, September 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7.2M | 201 points |
| US healthcare support employment, September 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.7M | 5.5M to 5.9M | 201 points |
| US CPS production occupations employment, September 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.7M | 7.4M to 8M | 201 points |
| US business and financial operations employment, September 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 10.2M | 9.8M to 10.5M | 201 points |
| CPS office admin employment, September 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 16.2M | 15.9M to 16.6M | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, September 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_09.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-09-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.1% | 5.9% to 6.3% | 201 points |
| UK Residential Transactions SA, August 2026 hmrc.property_transactions.uk_residential_sa.2026_08.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-09-09 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 95,600 | 90,500 to 100,700 | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Sep. 12, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12 Headline | United States | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 207k | 191k to 223k | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Sep. 12, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-09-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 203k | 193k to 213k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-12 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-12 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-09-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI All Items YoY, Sep 2026 Prelim statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.september_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.1% | 1.7% to 2.5% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI YoY Sep 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_09.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.0% | 2.5% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| SSI recipients, September 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 7.3M to 7.4M | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment, September 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.september_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.4% | 6.2% to 6.6% | 201 points |
| Canada Regular EI Beneficiaries, Sep 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.september_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 524k to 552k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, September 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_09.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, September 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, September 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.september_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-09-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 34.6M | 34M to 35.2M | 201 points |
| US unemployment rate, September 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 4.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| US unemployment rate, September 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.september_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-09-21 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 40 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 4.1% | 4.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls Change, September 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 75k | -52k to 202k | 201 points |
| US telework rate, September 2026 bls.cps.telework_share.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21.9% | 21.3% to 22.5% | 201 points |
| US CPI-U MoM Sep 2026 bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.3% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| US Core CPI MoM, Sep 2026 bls.cpi.u.core_mom.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, September 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.6% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US MTS September 2026 deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $85B | $-180B to $350B | 201 points |
| US core PCE MoM September 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-09 Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, September 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-09.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.77% to 2.03% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS job openings, September 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.september_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-09-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 6.7M to 8M | 201 points |
| UK production output index, July 2026 ons.production.total_index.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-09-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +98.1 | +97.0 to 99.2 | 201 points |
| UK HPI Annual Change, July 2026 ons.uk_hpi.annual_change.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-09-02 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.1% | 0.4% to 3.8% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Sep 5 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05 Headline | United States | 2026-08-29 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 206k | 188k to 224k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Sep 5 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-29 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 206k | 195k to 217k | 201 points |
| Continued claims, week ending Sep. 5, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-29 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| Continued claims, week ending Sep. 5, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-29 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| UK PPI Input Prices Annual Rate, August 2026 ons.ppi.input_prices_yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +5.1% | +0.6% to 9.6% | 201 points |
| UK Private Rent Annual Growth, August 2026 ons.pipr.uk_private_rent_yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.8% | +3.4% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-08-29 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29 Headline | United States | 2026-08-24 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 205k | 186k to 224k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-08-29 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-24 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 206k | 195k to 217k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-08-29 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-24 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-08-29 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-24 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| UK regular pay growth, May-Jul 2026 ons.earnings.regular_pay_yoy.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-19 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.5% | 3.1% to 3.9% | 201 points |
| UK Vacancies, AP2Y, 2026 JUL ons.labour.vacancies_total.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-19 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 703k | 692k to 714k | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 207k | 188k to 226k | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-17 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 209k | 198k to 220k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-17 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US private nonresidential fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.private_nonresidential_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $4,710B | $4,630B to $4,790B | 201 points |
| US private nonresidential fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.private_nonresidential_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-09-21 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 40 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | $4,710B | $4,618.6B to $4,802B | 201 points |
| US private R&D fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.research_and_development_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-17 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $964B | $934B to $994B | 201 points |
| US private R&D fixed investment, Q3 2026 bea.research_and_development_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-09-21 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 40 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | $962B | $934B to $988.4B | 201 points |
| US CRP enrolled acres, September 2027, 27m ceiling usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.ceiling_27_million_source_recovered_2026_08_13 Headline | United States | 2026-08-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 26,650,000 | 26,250,000 to 26,950,000 | 201 points |
| US CRP enrolled acres, Sep 2027, no FY2027-31 ceiling usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.no_fy2027_31_ceiling_source_recovered_2026_08_13 Headline | United States | 2026-08-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 26,182,019 | 25,198,516 to 27,165,522 | 201 points |
| U.S. natural gas vented and flared, 2025 eia.ng.vented_flared.us.annual.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-14 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 335,163 MMcf | 206,110 MMcf to 464,216 MMcf | 201 points |
| DoD FY2027 prime award obligations if FY2027 NDAA enacted usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.fy27_ndaa_enacted Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 545.3 | 495.4 to 595.2 | 201 points |
| Belgium consumer confidence, August 2026 nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -5.0 | -11.0 to 1.0 | 201 points |
| US computer and mathematical employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US office and administrative support employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 16.5M | 16.1M to 16.8M | 201 points |
| DoD prime award obligations FY2027, no FY27 NDAA usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.no_fy27_ndaa Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 493.5 | 436.9 to 550.1 | 201 points |
| US healthcare support employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.8M | 5.5M to 6.1M | 201 points |
| US CPS production occupations employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 8M | 7.7M to 8.2M | 201 points |
| US transportation and material-moving employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12.3M | 11.9M to 12.7M | 201 points |
| US business and financial operations employment, August 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 9.8M | 9.6M to 10.1M | 201 points |
| Australia Employment Change, August 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.august_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 21k | -30k to 72k | 201 points |
| Belgium NBB business barometer, August 2026 nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -11.9 | -15.1 to -8.7 | 201 points |
| Belgium CPI annual inflation, August 2026 first print statbel.cpi.headline_yoy.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.55% | 2.71% to 4.4% | 201 points |
| Belgium health-index inflation, August 2026 statbel.health_index.yoy.2026-08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Tokyo CPI annual rate, August 2026 preliminary statjp.cpi.tokyo_all_items_annual_rate.august_2026.preliminary Headline | Japan | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8% | 1.3% to 2.3% | 201 points |
| US Personal Transfer Payments, Q2 2026 bea.ita.personal_transfer_payments.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $18,511M | $18,129M to $18,893M | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, August 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-08-13 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 6.1% to 6.5% | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15 Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 199k | 183k to 215k | 201 points |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-12 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 199k | 188k to 210k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-12 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual rate, August 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.8% | 2.3% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, August 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.2% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, August 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| SSI total recipients, Aug. 2026 ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 7.3M to 7.3M | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment, August 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.august_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.3% | 6.2% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Canada EI regular beneficiaries, August 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.august_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 520k to 556k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, August 2026 statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | -0.2% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| FY2026 CDFI Assistance Obligations usaspending.cdfi.assistance_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $281.1M | $-540.6M to $1,102.8M | 201 points |
| FY2026 HIDTA AL 95.001 obligations usaspending.ondcp.hidta_al95001_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $271.658M | $257.223M to $286.093M | 201 points |
| USFS Minnesota obligations, FY2026 usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $29.5M | $12.3M to $46.7M | 201 points |
| UK Total Trade Balance, June 2026 ons.trade.total_goods_services_balance.2026_06.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | £-3.1B | £-6.8B to £0.6B | 201 points |
| UK PPI Output Manufactured Products Index, July 2026 ons.ppi.output_manufactured_products_index.2026_07.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-08-12 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +154.0 | +152.9 to 155.1 | 201 points |
| NTIA 11.038 FY2026 obligations usaspending.ntia.broadband_al11038_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $45M | $5M to $290M | 201 points |
| US DoD prime award obligations FY2026 usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 455 | 380 to 530 | 201 points |
| FY2026 DoD prime contract obligations usaspending.dod.prime_contract_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 505 | 456.5 to 553.5 | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls, August 2026 bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35k | -92k to 162k | 201 points |
| US unemployment rate, August 2026 bls.cps.unemployment_rate.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 4.0% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| US telework rate, August 2026 bls.cps.telework_share.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 22.1% | 21.5% to 22.7% | 201 points |
| US CPI-U MoM, August 2026 bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.1% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US Core CPI MoM, Aug. 2026 bls.cpi.u.core_mom.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US MTS Deficit, August 2026 treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $230B | $15B to $445B | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, Aug. 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.7% to 2.1% | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, Aug 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-08 Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS Job Openings, August 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.august_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.1M | 6.5M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, August 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.2M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, August 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.august_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-08-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 36M | 35.3M to 36.8M | 201 points |
| SBA Disaster loan charge-offs FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_amount.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $258,333,333 | $85,714,286 to $575,000,000 | 201 points |
| SBA Disaster Charge-Off Rate FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_rate_upb.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.6% | 0.72% to 3.25% | 201 points |
| SBA disaster post-charge-off recoveries FY2026 sba.disaster.loan_program.post_charge_off_recovery.2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-08 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $103,333,333 | $63,333,333 to $150,000,000 | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 201k | 187k to 215k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 197k | 184k to 210k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-08-07 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| DoD New Prime Awards FY2026 usaspending.dod.new_prime_awards.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.4M | 1.2M to 1.7M | 201 points |
| DoD Prime Award Transactions FY2026 usaspending.dod.prime_award_transactions.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.9M | 3.5M to 4.3M | 201 points |
| DoD Unique Prime Contract Recipients, FY2026 usaspending.dod.unique_prime_contract_recipients.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 56k | 54k to 59k | 201 points |
| DoD Small-Business Contract Obligation Share FY2026 usaspending.dod.small_business_contract_obligation_share.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 20.2% | 18.6% to 21.8% | 201 points |
| DHS Title VI FY2026 award obligations usaspending.dhs.title_vi.award_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot Headline | United States | 2026-08-07 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $24,800,000,000 | $18,160,000,000 to $31,440,000,000 | 201 points |
| 2027 child SPM poverty rate if ACTC threshold falls to $1 census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar Headline | United States | 2026-08-06 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.2% | 6.8% to 19.6% | 201 points |
| U.S. child SPM poverty rate, CY2027 current law census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027.first_print.current_law Headline | United States | 2026-08-06 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 13.4% | 8.3% to 18.5% | 201 points |
| ACTC claims under a $1 earnings threshold, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar Headline | United States | 2026-08-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 27.2M | 14.7M to 39.7M | 201 points |
| ACTC claims under a $1 earnings threshold, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-09-23 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 40 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 22.1M | 16.4M to 32M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit claims, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.current_law Headline | United States | 2026-08-04 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 17.6M | 5.1M to 30.1M | 201 points |
| Additional Child Tax Credit claims, TY2027 irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.current_law Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-09-23 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 40 artifacts prompt, command, tool evidence | unreported | 15.5M | 14.5M to 16.4M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS hires rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 3.1% to 3.5% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Wages Q3 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.8% | +0.7% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| US nonfarm unit labor costs Q3 2026 prelim bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.4% | -0.3% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| US housing completions, July 2026 census.housing.completions_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.39m | 1.27m to 1.51m | 201 points |
| US export prices MoM, Jul 2026 bls.export_prices.all_commodities_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -1.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US durable goods orders MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -5.2% to 6.0% | 201 points |
| US durable goods shipments MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.4% | -0.3% to 1.1% | 201 points |
| US construction spending MoM, July 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.8% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| US consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.4% | -0.2% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| US revolving consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.5% | -3.5% to 10.5% | 201 points |
| US Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Annual Rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-31 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.1% | +0.6% to 3.6% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Compensation Q2 2026 bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.9% | +0.8% to 1.0% | 201 points |
| US ECI Private Wages Q2 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.8% | +0.3% to 1.3% | 201 points |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.9% | 7.7% to 8.1% | 201 points |
| US CPI Primary Rent MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.rent_primary_residence_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US CPI OER MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.owners_equivalent_rent_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US CPI Services Less Energy MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_energy_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US CPI services ex shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_rent_shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.1% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US manufacturing production m/m, July 2026 fed.g17.manufacturing_production_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US manufacturing capacity utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 75.6% | 75.25% to 75.95% | 201 points |
| US Building Permits, July 2026 census.housing.permits_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-27 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.38m | 1.3m to 1.46m | 201 points |
| US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.8% | -4.8% to 8.4% | 201 points |
| US Durable Goods Shipments MoM, Jun 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.6% | -0.2% to 1.4% | 201 points |
| US construction spending MoM, June 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.4% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 3.12% to 3.48% | 201 points |
| US Q2 2026 preliminary unit labor costs bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.0% | -0.8% to 6.8% | 201 points |
| US Consumer Credit Annual Rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +2.2% | -0.2% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| US revolving credit growth, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +3.8% | -2.6% to 10.2% | 201 points |
| US nonrevolving consumer credit annual rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.9% | -0.3% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| US CPI Shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-26 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US PPI Final Demand MoM, July 2026 bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | -0.2% to 0.9% | 201 points |
| Canada CPI annual rate, July 2026 statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_07.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.7% | 2.2% to 3.2% | 201 points |
| Australia Employment Change, July 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.july_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 24k | -27k to 75k | 201 points |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 206k | 189k to 223k | 201 points |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-25 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 187k | 172k to 202k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.7M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-25 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US Total Industrial Production MoM, Jul 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.6% to 0.8% | 201 points |
| US Total Industry Capacity Utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 76.14% | 75.62% to 76.66% | 201 points |
| US housing starts SAAR, July 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.4M | 1.1M to 1.7M | 201 points |
| US Import Prices MoM, July 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.0% | +0.1% to 1.9% | 201 points |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, July 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 620k | 538k to 702k | 201 points |
| US goods and services trade deficit, July 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-25 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $69B | $56.1B to $81.9B | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 212k | 202k to 222k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-21 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 208k | 199k to 217k | 201 points |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-21 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.8M | 201 points |
| US production employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.6M | 7.4M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US transportation and material-moving employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 12M | 11.8M to 12.2M | 201 points |
| US business and financial operations employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.business_financial_operations.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 9.7M | 9.4M to 10M | 201 points |
| US computer and math employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.6M to 7.4M | 201 points |
| US healthcare support employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.healthcare_support.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 5.8M | 4.6M to 7M | 201 points |
| US office and administrative support employment, July 2026 bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.office_administrative_support.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 16.3M | 16.2M to 16.5M | 201 points |
| US opening-establishment job gains, Q4 2025 bls.bed.private_gross_job_gains.opening_establishments.2025_q4.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.64m | 1.58m to 1.69m | 201 points |
| US private compensation cost, Q2 2026 bls.ecec.private_total_compensation.hourly_cost.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $46.95 | $46.70 to $47.20 | 201 points |
| US defense capital-goods inventories, June 2026 census.m3.defense_capital_goods.inventories.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $28.4B | $28.2B to $28.5B | 201 points |
| US PCE Prices, June 2026 bea.pce_price_index.monthly_change.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.3% to 0.1% | 201 points |
| US personal current taxes, June 2026 bea.personal_current_taxes.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $3,277.2B | $3,266.8B to $3,287.6B | 201 points |
| BEA Medicaid Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicaid.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,054.5B | $1,043.8B to $1,065.2B | 201 points |
| US Medicare Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.medicare.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,342.3B | $1,338.3B to $1,346.3B | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, June 2026 bea.pce.core_mom.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.1% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US Social Security Benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.social_security.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-15 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1,657.3B | $1,652.8B to $1,661.8B | 201 points |
| UK claimant count, June 2026 ons.labour.claimant_count.2026_06.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.73m | 1.71m to 1.74m | 201 points |
| Euro-area construction production, May 2026 eurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +105.7 | +104.4 to 107.1 | 201 points |
| Australia employment change, June 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 18k | -22k to 58k | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, June 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.6% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia June building approvals abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.5% | -22.0% to 25.0% | 201 points |
| US government social benefits, June 2026 bea.government_social_benefits.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $5,028.3B | $5,005.4B to $5,051.2B | 201 points |
| Canada EI regular beneficiaries, July 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.july_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 529k | 522k to 536k | 201 points |
| Canada monthly GDP growth, July 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-11 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 215k | 206k to 224k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, July 18 Week dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| Australia unemployment rate, July 2026 abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.july_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-11 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 4.1% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, July 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP participation, July 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.july_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.9M | 34.7M to 37.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC Participation, June 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US SNAP Participation, June 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 35.6M | 34.7M to 36.4M | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,741.4B | $23,634.4B to $23,848.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,620B to $23,860B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,730B | $23,630B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701B | $23,577.5B to $23,824.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,617.6B to $23,822.4B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,720B | $23,596.5B to $23,843.5B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,710B | $23,620B to $23,840B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,596B to $23,784B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,705B | $23,605.3B to $23,804.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $24,185B | $24,074.7B to $24,295.3B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,725B | $23,615B to $23,830B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,701.7B | $23,578.2B to $23,825.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,711.7B | $23,588.2B to $23,835.2B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,729.1B | $23,626.7B to $23,831.6B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,690B | $23,485.7B to $23,900B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,715B | $23,590B to $23,836.7B | 201 points |
| US disposable personal income, June 2026 bea.disposable_personal_income.level.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $23,770B | $23,695B to $23,850B | 201 points |
| UK CPI Annual Rate, June 2026 ons.cpi.annual_rate.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 2.9% | 2.5% to 3.3% | 201 points |
| UK PAYE Payrolled Employees, June 2026 ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 30.3M | 30.2M to 30.3M | 201 points |
| UK PSNB ex Banks, June 2026 ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.june_2026.first_print Headline | United Kingdom | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | £24.8B | £13.8B to £35.8B | 201 points |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, June 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 590k | 525k to 655k | 201 points |
| US goods and services trade deficit, June 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $67B | $39.7B to $94.3B | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.3% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.2% | -0.6% to 0.2% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.6% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.1% | -0.4% to 0.6% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.4% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.5% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.5% to 0.3% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 0.0% | -0.7% to 0.7% | 201 points |
| US real average hourly earnings MoM, July 2026 bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | -0.1% | -0.7% to 0.5% | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.9M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.8M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.9M | 6.9M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.7M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.8M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.6M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.7M to 6.9M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.8M | 6.8M to 7M | 201 points |
| US WIC participation, May 2026 fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7M | 6.8M to 7.1M | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $308.1B | $262.4B to $353.8B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-luna | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $291B | $242B to $340B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $280B | $237B to $323B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $295B | $248B to $342B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305B | $259.4B to $350.6B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $319.1B | $240B to $430B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $325B | $272B to $378B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $324.2B | $213.1B to $435.3B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $290B | $231.3B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $260B | $148B to $372B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $289B | $177B to $401B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $300B | $247.5B to $352.5B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $270B | $201.1B to $358B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $305.5B | $210B to $400B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $255B | $190B to $350B | 201 points |
| US MTS July 2026 Deficit treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.july_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $296B | $213B to $380B | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 535k | 519k to 551k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 545k | 534k to 555k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 538k | 533k to 542k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 534k to 548k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 522k to 558k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 536k | 522k to 550k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 540k | 523k to 557k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 537k | 520k to 553k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 542k | 530k to 554k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 539k | 523k to 556k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 541k | 523k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 550k | 528k to 574k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 543k | 529k to 561k | 201 points |
| Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 548k | 537k to 561k | 201 points |
| US Core PCE MoM, July 2026 us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-07 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.3% | +0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Headline | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.2% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.2% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.0% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.2% | 3.1% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.3% | 2.5% to 4.1% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.1% | 3.4% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-terra | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.0% to 4.6% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 2.9% to 4.7% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.5% to 5.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.3% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 1 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.2% | 2.6% to 3.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 2 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.4% | 3.8% to 5.0% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Fast rollout 3 of 3 | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.6-sol | 16 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.7% | 3.1% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.5 | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.3% | 3.5% to 5.2% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-sol | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 4.0% | 3.2% to 4.8% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-terra | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.8% | 3.5% to 4.3% | 201 points |
| Australia CPI annual rate, July 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026-07.first_print Threshold-ladder elicitation | Australia | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 gpt-5.6-luna | 34 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.9% | 3.3% to 4.5% | 201 points |
| Canada Monthly GDP Growth, June 2026 statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-06.first_print Headline | Canada | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.1% | -0.2% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US JOLTS job openings, July 2026 bls.jolts.job_openings.july_2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 7.3M | 6.7M to 7.8M | 201 points |
| US JOLTS quits rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.9% | 1.75% to 2.05% | 201 points |
| Euro area unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.unemployment_rate.euro_area.july_2026.first_print Headline | Euro area | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.2% | 6.0% to 6.4% | 201 points |
| Belgium unemployment rate, July 2026 eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_07.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 6.0% | 5.8% to 6.2% | 201 points |
| SNAP participation, May 2026 usda.fns.snap.persons.may_2026 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 41.9M | 41.2M to 42.6M | 201 points |
| Belgium GDP Flash Q3 2026 nbb.gdp.flash_qoq.2026_q3.first_print Headline | Belgium | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +0.2% | +0.0% to 0.4% | 201 points |
| US Nonfarm Productivity Q3 2026 Preliminary bls.productivity.nonfarm_qoq_prelim.2026_q3.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | +1.7% | -1.7% to 5.1% | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 216k | 203k to 229k | 201 points |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | 2026-07-10 | brier.time_series_prior persistence.last_print | 1 artifacts baseline inputs | unreported | 215k | 206k to 224k | 201 points |
| US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-10 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.8M | 1.8M to 1.9M | 201 points |
| US nursing-home total nurse staffing HPRD, July 2026 first print cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.92 | 3.84 to 4.00 | 201 points |
| US home health employment, July 2026 bls.ces.home_health_care_services.employment.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.89m | 1.88m to 1.9m | 201 points |
| Colorado SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 66k | 66k to 67k | 201 points |
| SSA Retired-Worker Awards Claimed at 62, 2025 ssa.annual_statistical_supplement.table_6b5.retired_worker_awards.share_claimed_age_62.2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 22.2% | 21.1% to 23.3% | 201 points |
| VA Pension A&A Recipients, FY2026 va.vba.pension.aid_attendance_recipients.FY2026.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 46k | 41k to 52k | 201 points |
| SNAP Participants Age 60+ Share, FY2025 usda.fns.snap.participants_age_60_plus.share.fy2025.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 20.4% | 19.5% to 21.3% | 201 points |
| Colorado labor force, July 2026 bls.laus.colorado.labor_force.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 3.18m | 3.18m to 3.19m | 201 points |
| Colorado individual income tax collections, July 2026 co.dor.individual_income_tax.net_collections.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | $1B | $0.4B to $1.5B | 201 points |
| Colorado Medicaid caseload, August 2026 co.hcpf.medicaid.total_caseload.2026-08.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 1.25m | 1.23m to 1.27m | 201 points |
| US aircraft manufacturing establishments, Q1 2026 bls.qcew.aircraft_manufacturing.establishments.2026_q1.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-23 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 395 | 386 to 404 | 201 points |
| US nursing home occupancy, July 2026 cms.care_compare.nursing_home_occupancy_pct.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 79.82% | 79.75% to 79.89% | 201 points |
| Colorado SSI Recipients 65+ July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.aged_65_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | 2026-07-21 | thesis.analyst gpt-5.5 | 32 artifacts prompt, command, codex stdout jsonl | unreported | 23,060 | 23,024 to 23,096 | 201 points |
Scored predictions
80 rows · facts from Ledger| prediction | geo | run type | forecast | actual | error | nCRPS | CRPS | PIT | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial claims, week ending Sep. 12, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 207k | 198k | -9k | 0.56 | 5.49 | 0.28 | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Sep. 12, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 203k | 198k | -5k | 0.33 | 3.21 | 0.31 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-12 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.7M | -0.1M | 2.78 | 0.048 | 0.044 | outside |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-09-12 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-12.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.7M | -0.1M | 2.82 | 0.048 | 0.0 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending Sep 5 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 206k | 206k | 0k | 0.37 | 3.90 | 0.50 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Sep 5 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 206k | 206k | 0k | 0.22 | 2.30 | 0.50 | inside |
| Continued claims, week ending Sep. 5, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.7M | -0M | 1.33 | 0.024 | 0.11 | inside |
| Continued claims, week ending Sep. 5, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-09-05.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.7M | -0M | 1.98 | 0.037 | 0.020 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-08-29 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 205k | 207k | +2k | 0.40 | 4.20 | 0.54 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending 2026-08-29 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 206k | 207k | +1k | 0.22 | 2.33 | 0.54 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-08-29 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 0.71 | 0.013 | 0.26 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending 2026-08-29 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-29.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 0.86 | 0.016 | 0.091 | outside |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 207k | 203k | -4k | 0.39 | 4.45 | 0.42 | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 22, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 209k | 203k | -6k | 0.32 | 3.67 | 0.28 | inside |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 0.51 | 0.0082 | 0.43 | inside |
| US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | +0M | 0.28 | 0.0044 | 0.54 | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 199k | 206k | +7k | 0.43 | 4.69 | 0.68 | inside |
| Initial claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 199k | 206k | +7k | 0.38 | 4.17 | 0.75 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 0.99 | 0.015 | 0.31 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 15, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-15.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | 1.04 | 0.016 | 0.071 | outside |
| Australia CPI annual rate, August 2026 abs.cpi.all_groups.yoy.2026_08.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +0.2% | n/a | 0.19 | 0.60 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 201k | 209k | +8k | 0.42 | 4.86 | 0.73 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 197k | 209k | +12k | 0.62 | 7.25 | 0.87 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | +0M | 2.98 | 0.0086 | 0.54 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | +0M | 4.00 | 0.012 | 0.93 | outside |
| US JOLTS hires rate, July 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.3% | 3.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.063 | 0.30 | inside |
| US housing completions, July 2026 census.housing.completions_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.39m | 1.21m | -178k | n/a | 122 | 0.068 | outside |
| US export prices MoM, Jul 2026 bls.export_prices.all_commodities_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | -1.3% | -1.7% | n/a | 1.09 | 0.091 | outside |
| US durable goods orders MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +1.1% | +0.7% | n/a | 1.25 | 0.55 | inside |
| US durable goods shipments MoM, July 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.4% | +1.0% | +0.6% | n/a | 0.36 | 0.84 | inside |
| US construction spending MoM, July 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | -0.5% | -0.6% | n/a | 0.35 | 0.23 | inside |
| US consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.4% | +4.2% | +1.8% | n/a | 1.06 | 0.78 | inside |
| US revolving consumer credit annual rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +3.5% | +2.5% | -1.0% | n/a | 1.57 | 0.44 | inside |
| US Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Annual Rate, July 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.1% | +4.8% | +2.7% | n/a | 1.95 | 0.95 | outside |
| US ECI Private Compensation Q2 2026 bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.9% | +0.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.028 | 0.50 | inside |
| US ECI Private Wages Q2 2026 bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.11 | 0.59 | inside |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate, July 2026 bls.cps.u6_underemployment_rate.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.043 | 0.50 | inside |
| US CPI Primary Rent MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.rent_primary_residence_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.048 | 0.75 | inside |
| US CPI OER MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.owners_equivalent_rent_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% | n/a | 0.039 | 0.63 | inside |
| US CPI Services Less Energy MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_energy_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.050 | 0.34 | inside |
| US CPI services ex shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.services_less_rent_shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.066 | 0.35 | inside |
| US manufacturing production m/m, July 2026 fed.g17.manufacturing_production_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.10 | 0.60 | inside |
| US manufacturing capacity utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 75.6% | 76.0% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.26 | 0.91 | outside |
| US Building Permits, July 2026 census.housing.permits_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.38m | 1.44m | +68k | n/a | 40.5 | 0.84 | inside |
| US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.8% | +0.3% | -1.5% | n/a | 1.57 | 0.41 | inside |
| US Durable Goods Shipments MoM, Jun 2026 census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.18 | 0.55 | inside |
| US construction spending MoM, June 2026 census.construction_spending.total_mom.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | n/a | 0.11 | 0.35 | inside |
| US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026 bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.061 | 0.72 | inside |
| US Q2 2026 preliminary unit labor costs bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q2.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +3.0% | +1.3% | -1.7% | n/a | 1.13 | 0.32 | inside |
| US Consumer Credit Annual Rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +2.2% | +3.3% | +1.1% | n/a | 0.72 | 0.68 | inside |
| US revolving credit growth, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +3.8% | +6.0% | +2.2% | n/a | 1.69 | 0.64 | inside |
| US nonrevolving consumer credit annual rate, Jun 2026 fed.g19.consumer_credit_nonrevolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.9% | +2.3% | +0.4% | n/a | 0.51 | 0.57 | inside |
| US CPI Shelter MoM, July 2026 bls.cpi.shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | n/a | 0.083 | 0.23 | inside |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 206k | 199k | -7k | 0.55 | 4.84 | 0.34 | inside |
| US initial jobless claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 187k | 199k | +12k | 0.81 | 7.09 | 0.82 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.011 | 0.48 | inside |
| US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.014 | 0.026 | outside |
| US Total Industrial Production MoM, Jul 2026 fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | n/a | 0.16 | 0.56 | inside |
| US Total Industry Capacity Utilization, July 2026 fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 76.14% | 76.3% | +0.16% | n/a | 0.13 | 0.62 | inside |
| US housing starts SAAR, July 2026 census.housing_starts.saar.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.4M | 1.2M | -0.1M | n/a | 0.085 | 0.31 | inside |
| US Import Prices MoM, July 2026 bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | +1.0% | -0.4% | -1.4% | n/a | 0.97 | 0.063 | outside |
| US New Home Sales SAAR, July 2026 census.new_residential_sales.new_single_family_houses_sold_saar.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 620k | 607k | -13k | n/a | 18.6 | 0.44 | inside |
| US goods and services trade deficit, July 2026 bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | $69B | $88.6B | +$19.6B | n/a | 13.5 | 0.93 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 212k | 197k | -15k | 1.86 | 10.3 | 0.067 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 25 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 208k | 197k | -11k | 1.27 | 7.09 | 0.089 | outside |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0057 | 0.30 | inside |
| US continued claims, July 25 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-25.first_print Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.0027 | 0.32 | inside |
| Australia employment change, June 2026 abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print Headline | Australia | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 18k | 76k | +58k | n/a | 39.8 | 0.93 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 216k | 187k | -29k | 2.85 | 22.1 | 0.018 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending July 18 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 215k | 187k | -28k | 3.00 | 23.3 | 0.0 | outside |
| US Continued Claims, July 18 Week dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.6-sol | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.032 | 0.064 | outside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 216k | 208k | -8k | 0.62 | 4.79 | 0.25 | inside |
| US initial claims, week ending Jul 11 2026 us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11 Ledger persistence baseline | United States | Primary persistence.last_print | 215k | 208k | -7k | 0.53 | 4.13 | 0.18 | inside |
| US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026 dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.8M | 1.8M | -0M | n/a | 0.012 | 0.31 | inside |
| US nursing-home total nurse staffing HPRD, July 2026 first print cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.92 | 3.86 | -0.06 | n/a | 0.035 | 0.20 | inside |
| US home health employment, July 2026 bls.ces.home_health_care_services.employment.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 1.89m | 1.89m | -3k | n/a | 1.98 | 0.35 | inside |
| Colorado SSI recipients, July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 66k | 66k | -0k | n/a | 0.062 | 0.31 | inside |
| Colorado labor force, July 2026 bls.laus.colorado.labor_force.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 3.18m | 3.19m | +7k | n/a | 5.12 | 0.97 | outside |
| US nursing home occupancy, July 2026 cms.care_compare.nursing_home_occupancy_pct.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 79.82% | 80.45% | +0.63% | n/a | 0.59 | 1.00 | outside |
| Colorado SSI Recipients 65+ July 2026 ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.aged_65_plus.2026-07.first_print Headline | United States | Primary gpt-5.5 | 23,060 | 23,094 | +34 | n/a | 20.6 | 0.88 | inside |