thesisPrototype
modelprediction pack · v0.1.0

Cash-income bridge

Maps labor-market and transfer-income signals into the official pretax cash-income poverty measure.

1
runs
1
targets
1
agents
1
versions

Purpose

Translate labor-market and transfer-income signals into the official poverty measure's pretax cash-income definition.

Mechanism

  • Start from a resolved official-poverty base rate.
  • Separate earnings, Social Security, cash assistance, and threshold-indexation effects.
  • Exclude tax credits and noncash benefits that belong in SPM rather than the official measure.

Checks

  • The run states that official poverty is a pretax cash-income target.
  • The public trace distinguishes official poverty from SPM.
  • The forecast explains which cash-income channel moves the rate.

Inputs

  • Census official poverty history
  • Labor-market and wage indicators
  • PolicyEngine cash-income simulation output

Limitations

  • Does not model within-year CPS ASEC response bias directly.
  • Can miss distributional changes if aggregate earnings look stable.

Versions

v0.1.0cash-income-bridge@0.1.01 runs

Runs using this pack

Census official-poverty pack set
Official poverty rate, 2025
brier-1.packedJun 14, 2026Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs
pack_set.census_official_poverty_2025.v1pack-enabled
10.3%
-0.3% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled run that bridges PolicyEngine cash income to the Census official poverty release.

80% interval 9.7% to 11.0%