Housing activity nowcast

Purpose

Cross-check housing starts and construction activity against permits, financing conditions, and builder sentiment.

Mechanism

• Anchor on recent starts, permits, and completions levels.
• Compare single-family and multifamily signals against mortgage-rate and builder-sentiment context.
• Add preliminary-release volatility for starts and permits that are frequently revised.

Checks

• The run identifies whether permits support or contradict the starts signal.
• Single-family and multifamily timing risk are considered separately.
• The interval is wide enough for preliminary New Residential Construction noise.

Inputs

• Census/HUD starts and permits history
• Mortgage-rate and builder-sentiment context
• Recent preliminary-release revision behavior

Limitations

• Does not yet ingest metro- or state-level permit microdata.
• Multifamily project timing remains a judgmental adjustment.

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