Thesis Institute · the briefing library
Briefings: versioned material handed to forecasters
A briefing hands a forecaster curated evidence, calibration rules, and checks up front — research stays fully open with or without it, so briefed-versus-unbriefed contrasts measure the value of curation, not information access. Recorded as packId@version until the identifier migration. Each briefing page shows the pack's current version, how it is applied, and the runs where it appears.
Selected per forecast run and stored in the prediction record as packId@version.
Designed to be tested against no-pack controls or other pack sets on the same target.
Travels with the run through resolution, scoring, and postmortem analysis.
Panel persistence shrinkage
For repeated jurisdiction, occupation, or agency panels, scores the last-print baseline and shrinks agent updates toward it unless current evidence clears a stated bar.