Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Australia June building approvals
What will be the June 2026 month-over-month percentage change in Australia's seasonally adjusted total dwelling units approved, in the ABS first print?
current forecast · 80% CI+1.5%
-22.0%+1.5%+25.0%
history:March 2026 month-over-month change, current May-release vintage: -13.0%April 2026 month-over-month change, current May-release vintage: -0.2%May 2026 month-over-month change, first print: -1.1%May 2026 total dwellings approved: +17019.0%May 2026 trend month-over-month change: -0.5%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-11T18:12:36Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- volatile multi-unit approvals after February's spike
- May weakness creates modest rebound potential
- house approvals rose while non-house approvals fell sharply
- underlying trend was mildly negative
Resolution
- source
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Approvals, Australia
- expected
- July 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the month-over-month percentage change for seasonally adjusted total dwelling units approved for June 2026 shown on the first ABS Building Approvals, Australia release scheduled for 30 July 2026 at 11:30am AEST. Use the published one-decimal percentage value without incorporating later revisions or the 6 August additional-information release.
- Data point
- abs.building_approvals.total_dwellings_mom.australia.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.calendarhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.