thesisPrototype

Government data

Australia CPI annual rate, June 2026

What will the ABS first print for the annual percentage change in the original All groups CPI, weighted average of eight capital cities, for June 2026?

Overdue · was due Jul 29, 2026

The resolver routes this target's reference, but its last run printed no line naming this target.

NO_REPORT · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

4.2%
3.6%–4.8%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%2.7%4.2%5.7%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (3.6%–4.8%). Dashed line: point estimate (4.2%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Australia June 2026 annual CPI forecast

The target is the first-print June 2026 annual change in the original, not seasonally adjusted, All groups CPI for the weighted average of eight capital cities. Resolution uses ABS series CPI/3.10001.10.50.M and retains the first published one-decimal value without revision grace.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the ABS May 2026 Consumer Price Index release and its All groups annual history.
↳ ABS reported annual All groups CPI of 3.8% in December 2025, 3.8% in January 2026, 3.7% in February, 4.6% in March, 4.2% in April, and 4.0% in May.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the ABS May 2026 release's monthly and component movements for the exact original CPI variant.
↳ The original All groups CPI fell 0.7% in May 2026; annual Housing inflation was 6.5%, Food 3.3%, Transport 3.3%, and Alcohol and tobacco 4.7%.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Check the ABS July 2026 release calendar and May publication's future-release schedule.
↳ The official ABS schedule lists Consumer Price Index, Australia, June 2026 for 29 July 2026 at 11:30am Canberra time; the May release also states next release 29/07/2026.

The official 29 July date conflicts with the registered sourceBinding expectedReleaseWindow ending 28 July. I retain the same target but use 29 July 2026 because it is the concrete date verified from the official calendar this run.

The reference class/base rate is persistence in the same original annual series. The 14 observations from April 2025 through May 2026 were 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.4%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.6%, 4.2%, and 4.0%; their mean successive change was +0.12 percentage point.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanisms point to a modest rebound: the level remains elevated at 4.0%; recent momentum eased from March's 4.6%; May's original 0.7% monthly fall included sharp Transport and Recreation declines that may partly reverse; Housing at 6.5% and administered or indexed prices keep underlying pressure firm. No mid-2026 CPI weight update is scheduled.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = May's 4.0%; historical sample = the 14 same-variant annual rates from April 2025 to May 2026. Add +0.12 percentage point from the historical mean successive change, about +0.10 for partial reversal of May's transport/travel weakness and sticky housing, and about -0.02 for recent disinflation, giving 4.20%, rounded to 4.2%. Across the 13 successive annual-rate changes, sigma = 0.476 percentage point. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.476 = 0.610, so 4.2% ± 0.61 rounds to implied bounds of 3.6% and 4.8%.

Upside risk comes from a larger fuel, travel, or housing rebound and would land above the interval if annual CPI exceeds 4.8%. Downside risk comes from renewed fuel declines, discounting, or faster goods disinflation and would land below the interval if CPI is under 3.6%. These are the concrete outside-the-interval scenarios.

Review disposition: Accepted the review's assessment that no forecast fixes were required. The exact release time is already recorded in the calendar lookup, and the ledger expectedReleaseWindow discrepancy remains explicitly flagged for separate registration correction rather than altering the target.

Key drivers

  • Persistence near May's 4.0% annual rate
  • Sticky housing inflation
  • Reversal of May transport and travel price falls
  • Food and tobacco inflation remain firm
  • Favorable but diminishing transport base effects

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, Australia release and Data API
Resolution date
July 29, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for June 2026 annual change in the original All groups CPI, weighted average of eight capital cities, series CPI/3.10001.10.50.M. Use the first print as displayed to one decimal percentage point; later revisions do not change resolution.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publication-ready; it identifies the ABS first-print resolver, states a persistence prior, gives a coherent update and volatility-based 80% interval, and flags the ledger release-window discrepancy explicitly.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider adding the exact ABS release time only if the schema has a place for it; the current resolutionDate and reasoning are sufficient.
  • info optional_suggestion: If the publisher treats the ledger expectedReleaseWindow as authoritative, separately correct that registration metadata rather than changing this forecast target.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the review's assessment that no forecast fixes were required. The exact release time is already recorded in the calendar lookup, and the ledger expectedReleaseWindow discrepancy remains explicitly flagged for separate registration correction rather than altering the target.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the review's assessment that no forecast fixes were required. The exact release time is already recorded in the calendar lookup, and the ledger expectedReleaseWindow discrepancy remains explicitly flagged for separate registration correction rather than altering the target.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Australia June 2026 annual CPI forecast

The target is the first-print June 2026 annual change in the original, not seasonally adjusted, All groups CPI for the weighted average of eight capital cities. Resolution uses ABS series CPI/3.10001.10.50.M and retains the first published one-decimal value without revision grace.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the ABS May 2026 Consumer Price Index release and its All groups annual history.
↳ ABS reported annual All groups CPI of 3.8% in December 2025, 3.8% in January 2026, 3.7% in February, 4.6% in March, 4.2% in April, and 4.0% in May.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the ABS May 2026 release's monthly and component movements for the exact original CPI variant.
↳ The original All groups CPI fell 0.7% in May 2026; annual Housing inflation was 6.5%, Food 3.3%, Transport 3.3%, and Alcohol and tobacco 4.7%.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Check the ABS July 2026 release calendar and May publication's future-release schedule.
↳ The official ABS schedule lists Consumer Price Index, Australia, June 2026 for 29 July 2026 at 11:30am Canberra time; the May release also states next release 29/07/2026.

The official 29 July date conflicts with the registered sourceBinding expectedReleaseWindow ending 28 July. I retain the same target but use 29 July 2026 because it is the concrete date verified from the official calendar this run.

The reference class/base rate is persistence in the same original annual series. The 14 observations from April 2025 through May 2026 were 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.4%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.6%, 4.2%, and 4.0%; their mean successive change was +0.12 percentage point.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanisms point to a modest rebound: the level remains elevated at 4.0%; recent momentum eased from March's 4.6%; May's original 0.7% monthly fall included sharp Transport and Recreation declines that may partly reverse; Housing at 6.5% and administered or indexed prices keep underlying pressure firm. No mid-2026 CPI weight update is scheduled.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = May's 4.0%; historical sample = the 14 same-variant annual rates from April 2025 to May 2026. Add +0.12 percentage point from the historical mean successive change, about +0.10 for partial reversal of May's transport/travel weakness and sticky housing, and about -0.02 for recent disinflation, giving 4.20%, rounded to 4.2%. Across the 13 successive annual-rate changes, sigma = 0.476 percentage point. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.476 = 0.610, so 4.2% ± 0.61 rounds to implied bounds of 3.6% and 4.8%.

Upside risk comes from a larger fuel, travel, or housing rebound and would land above the interval if annual CPI exceeds 4.8%. Downside risk comes from renewed fuel declines, discounting, or faster goods disinflation and would land below the interval if CPI is under 3.6%. These are the concrete outside-the-interval scenarios.

Review disposition: Accepted the review's assessment that no forecast fixes were required. The exact release time is already recorded in the calendar lookup, and the ledger expectedReleaseWindow discrepancy remains explicitly flagged for separate registration correction rather than altering the target.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
4.2%[3.6% · 4.8%]
Target metadata

Data point: abs.cpi.all_groups_annual_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print

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