Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Australia employment change, June 2026
What will the ABS first report for the June 2026 month-over-month change in employed people, seasonally adjusted, Australia?
current forecast · 80% CI18k
-22k18k58k
history:2026-05 employment change, SA, thousands: 40k2026-04 employment change, SA, thousands: -41k2026-03 employment change, SA, thousands: 19k2026-02 employment change, SA, thousands: 23k2026-01 employment change, SA, thousands: 35k2025-12 employment change, SA, thousands: 57k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-11T18:15:02Z
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- 76k
- forecast
- 18k with 80% CI [-22k, 58k]
- error
- +58k · absolute 58k
- cdf score
- CRPS 39.8 · PIT 0.93
- source
- abs Labour Force, Australia (dataflow LF: employed persons, seasonally adjusted, Australia; month-over-month change)
First print for 2026-06 captured from https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/LF/M3.3.1599.20.AUS.M?lastNObservations=30&format=jsondata on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent employment momentum remains positive
- Vacancies declined 2.1% over three months
- Survey modernisation raises sampling uncertainty
- Underlying trend employment growth is near 20 thousand
Resolution
- source
- Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force, Australia release
- resolved
- July 25, 2026
- actual
- 76k
- rule
- Resolve to the first value published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for June 2026 in series LF/M3.3.1599.20.AUS.M: employed persons, seasonally adjusted, Australia, month-over-month change, in thousands. Use the first-print value as published, including its published precision; ignore all later revisions or corrections.
- Data point
- abs.labour.employment_change.australia.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.