thesisPrototype

Government data

Australia unemployment rate, August 2026

What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force dataflow LF series LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M, unemployment rate for persons aged total, seasonally adjusted, Australia, monthly percent, report for August 2026 on the first print?

Overdue · was due Sep 24, 2026

The resolver refused this target at its first-print check.

FIRST_PRINT_WINDOW_MISSED · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

4.4%
4.2%–4.6%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%3.9%4.4%4.9%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (4.2%–4.6%). Dashed line: point estimate (4.4%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Australia Labour Force first-print forecast

Framing: the registered target is ABS dataflow LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M for August 2026, unemployment rate, persons, total age, seasonally adjusted, Australia, monthly percent, first print. The canonical ledger context binds slug australia-unemployment-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print, and the registered ABS Data API resolver.

▸ Reported tool use: abs.release_calendarmodel report
curl -sS https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202609/rcc_labour and strip HTML around Labour Force, Australia
↳ ABS future releases page excerpt contained: Thursday 24 September 2026 11:30am AEST; Labour Force, Australia; Reference period August 2026. This verifies resolutionDate 2026-09-24 for the first print.
▸ Reported tool use: abs.data_apimodel report
curl -sS https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M?lastNObservations=30&format=jsondata and parse SDMX JSON observations
↳ Fetched ABS LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M values include 2026-06=4.42834371, 2026-05=4.37134808, 2026-04=4.49048465, 2026-03=4.27833862, 2026-02=4.30162554, 2026-01=4.07986795 percent; ABS metadata says DECIMALS=1 and Unit of Measure Percent.
▸ Reported tool use: abs.latest_releasemodel report
curl -sS https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release and strip HTML excerpts
↳ Latest ABS Labour Force page showed Reference period June 2026, Released 23/07/2026, Release date and time 23/07/2026 11:30am AEST, and in seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate was 4.4%. It also listed Next Release 24/09/2026 Labour Force, Australia, August 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.model_candidatesmodel report
PYTHONPATH=. python3 scripts/run_time_series_models.py --target-id abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print --target-period 2026-08 --models persistence --round-increment 0.1 using the fetched 2024-01 through 2026-06 ABS history
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence.last_print generatedAt 2026-08-12T21:37:23Z: pointEstimate 4.4, p10 4.3, p50 4.4, p90 4.6, interval80 lower 4.3 upper 4.6, interval90 lower 4.2 upper 4.6, calibrationN 29, trainCutoff 2026-06, walk_forward_1_step meanAbsoluteError 0.10970723586206897.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.specs_slug_checkmodel report
curl -sS -D - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Attempted required public specs slug check at 2026-08-12T21:36Z; HTTP status was 404 and the returned HTML body length was 11289 bytes, so no successful specs JSON slug list was available this run.

Base rate / reference class: last 24 fetched ABS monthly unemployment-rate levels, 2024-07 through 2026-06, had n=24, mean 4.1991, median 4.1633, min 3.9370, max 4.4905, level std 0.1507. The last 23 successive month-to-month changes had mean +0.0100 percentage points, sigma 0.1201, min -0.2062, max +0.2218. Last-print persistence is 2026-06 raw 4.42834371, published as 4.4, and the last-three average is 4.4301, also rounding to 4.4.

Prior/update/interval: prior is the thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence.last_print benchmark from the fetched ABS history through 2026-06, point 4.4 after one-decimal publication rounding. Adjustment components: +0.0 for current official evidence because the latest ABS release only confirms June at 4.4 and the August print is still two monthly releases away; +0.0 for policy/one-off because no fetched official source identified an August-specific measurement change. For this level/rate series, one-month successive-change sigma = 0.1201 percentage points over the last 23 fetched changes; because the target is two reference months after the latest observed print, scale by sqrt(2), so sigma = 0.1698 percentage points. 1.28*sigma = 0.2173. Around point 4.4 this implies 4.1827 to 4.6173 before publication rounding; mapping to one-decimal published outcomes gives an 80% interval of 4.2 to 4.6 percent. Implied bounds: point 4.4, ciLow 4.2, ciHigh 4.6.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would require unemployment to rise above 4.6 if July and August labour-force prints both weakened or participation rose faster than employment. Downside risk outside the interval would require a drop below 4.2 if employment growth reaccelerated while participation stopped adding unemployed persons.

Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by treating August 2026 as a two-reference-month horizon from the latest fetched June 2026 print and scaling month-to-month sigma by sqrt(2). Accepted the timestamp clarification by setting runAt after the model-candidate artifact time. The failed specs.json check did not affect target identity because the ledger-bound slug, unit, dataPointId, resolver URL, and resolution date were provided in the canonical target context.

Key drivers

  • last-print persistence at 4.4 percent
  • last-three-print average rounds to 4.4 percent
  • two-month horizon sigma is 0.1698 percentage points after sqrt(2) scaling
  • no direct August-specific official signal before the July print

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia
Resolution date
September 24, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve from the ABS Data API dataflow LF series LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M, Labour Force, Australia: unemployment rate (M13), persons (3), total age (1599), seasonally adjusted (20), Australia (AUS), monthly frequency, for TIME_PERIOD 2026-08. Use the first print released for the August 2026 reference period, report the value in percent rounded to one decimal as published by ABS, and ignore later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable after tightening the interval derivation for the two-month-ahead target horizon.

  • warning interval: The interval math uses one-month realized month-to-month sigma even though the latest observed print is 2026-06 and the target is 2026-08, a two-reference-month forecast horizon.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify the minor timestamp inconsistency where top-level runAt precedes the cited model generatedAt time.
  • info optional_suggestion: Mention that the failed specs.json slug check did not affect the ledger-bound target identity because the canonical target fields are already present.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by treating August 2026 as a two-reference-month horizon from the latest fetched June 2026 print and scaling month-to-month sigma by sqrt(2). Accepted the timestamp clarification by setting runAt after the model-candidate artifact time. The failed specs.json check did not affect target identity because the ledger-bound slug, unit, dataPointId, resolver URL, and resolution date were provided in the canonical target context.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by treating August 2026 as a two-reference-month horizon from the latest fetched June 2026 print and scaling month-to-month sigma by sqrt(2). Accepted the timestamp clarification by setting runAt after the model-candidate artifact time. The failed specs.json check did not affect target identity because the ledger-bound slug, unit, dataPointId, resolver URL, and resolution date were provided in the canonical target context.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by treating August 2026 as a two-reference-month horizon from the latest fetched June 2026 print and scaling month-to-month sigma by sqrt(2). Accepted the timestamp clarification by setting runAt after the model-candidate artifact time. The failed specs.json check did not affect target identity because the ledger-bound slug, unit, dataPointId, resolver URL, and resolution date were provided in the canonical target context.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Australia Labour Force first-print forecast

Framing: the registered target is ABS dataflow LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M for August 2026, unemployment rate, persons, total age, seasonally adjusted, Australia, monthly percent, first print. The canonical ledger context binds slug australia-unemployment-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print, and the registered ABS Data API resolver.

▸ Reported tool use: abs.release_calendarmodel report
curl -sS https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202609/rcc_labour and strip HTML around Labour Force, Australia
↳ ABS future releases page excerpt contained: Thursday 24 September 2026 11:30am AEST; Labour Force, Australia; Reference period August 2026. This verifies resolutionDate 2026-09-24 for the first print.
▸ Reported tool use: abs.data_apimodel report
curl -sS https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M?lastNObservations=30&format=jsondata and parse SDMX JSON observations
↳ Fetched ABS LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M values include 2026-06=4.42834371, 2026-05=4.37134808, 2026-04=4.49048465, 2026-03=4.27833862, 2026-02=4.30162554, 2026-01=4.07986795 percent; ABS metadata says DECIMALS=1 and Unit of Measure Percent.
▸ Reported tool use: abs.latest_releasemodel report
curl -sS https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release and strip HTML excerpts
↳ Latest ABS Labour Force page showed Reference period June 2026, Released 23/07/2026, Release date and time 23/07/2026 11:30am AEST, and in seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate was 4.4%. It also listed Next Release 24/09/2026 Labour Force, Australia, August 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.model_candidatesmodel report
PYTHONPATH=. python3 scripts/run_time_series_models.py --target-id abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print --target-period 2026-08 --models persistence --round-increment 0.1 using the fetched 2024-01 through 2026-06 ABS history
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence.last_print generatedAt 2026-08-12T21:37:23Z: pointEstimate 4.4, p10 4.3, p50 4.4, p90 4.6, interval80 lower 4.3 upper 4.6, interval90 lower 4.2 upper 4.6, calibrationN 29, trainCutoff 2026-06, walk_forward_1_step meanAbsoluteError 0.10970723586206897.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.specs_slug_checkmodel report
curl -sS -D - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Attempted required public specs slug check at 2026-08-12T21:36Z; HTTP status was 404 and the returned HTML body length was 11289 bytes, so no successful specs JSON slug list was available this run.

Base rate / reference class: last 24 fetched ABS monthly unemployment-rate levels, 2024-07 through 2026-06, had n=24, mean 4.1991, median 4.1633, min 3.9370, max 4.4905, level std 0.1507. The last 23 successive month-to-month changes had mean +0.0100 percentage points, sigma 0.1201, min -0.2062, max +0.2218. Last-print persistence is 2026-06 raw 4.42834371, published as 4.4, and the last-three average is 4.4301, also rounding to 4.4.

Prior/update/interval: prior is the thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence.last_print benchmark from the fetched ABS history through 2026-06, point 4.4 after one-decimal publication rounding. Adjustment components: +0.0 for current official evidence because the latest ABS release only confirms June at 4.4 and the August print is still two monthly releases away; +0.0 for policy/one-off because no fetched official source identified an August-specific measurement change. For this level/rate series, one-month successive-change sigma = 0.1201 percentage points over the last 23 fetched changes; because the target is two reference months after the latest observed print, scale by sqrt(2), so sigma = 0.1698 percentage points. 1.28*sigma = 0.2173. Around point 4.4 this implies 4.1827 to 4.6173 before publication rounding; mapping to one-decimal published outcomes gives an 80% interval of 4.2 to 4.6 percent. Implied bounds: point 4.4, ciLow 4.2, ciHigh 4.6.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would require unemployment to rise above 4.6 if July and August labour-force prints both weakened or participation rose faster than employment. Downside risk outside the interval would require a drop below 4.2 if employment growth reaccelerated while participation stopped adding unemployed persons.

Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by treating August 2026 as a two-reference-month horizon from the latest fetched June 2026 print and scaling month-to-month sigma by sqrt(2). Accepted the timestamp clarification by setting runAt after the model-candidate artifact time. The failed specs.json check did not affect target identity because the ledger-bound slug, unit, dataPointId, resolver URL, and resolution date were provided in the canonical target context.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
4.4%[4.2% · 4.6%]
Target metadata

Data point: abs.labour.unemployment_rate.2026_08.first_print

More government data forecasts