Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US government social benefits, June 2026
What will BEA first report for June 2026 personal current transfer receipts: government social benefits to persons (A063RC1), monthly, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, in billions of dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$5,028.3B
$5,005.4B$5,028.3B$5,051.2B
history:January 2026: $5,002.8BFebruary 2026: $4,988BMarch 2026: $4,991BApril 2026: $4,995.7BMay 2026: $5,024.4B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-11T18:16:23Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- bea.government_social_benefits.level.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- May level provides the persistence anchor
- Recent monthly changes show modest underlying growth with occasional benefit-payment jumps
- Social Security and Medicaid source-data revisions create first-print uncertainty
- No identified June policy change warrants extrapolating May's unusually large increase
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, Table 1
- expected
- July 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first-published June 2026 value of BEA series A063RC1, personal current transfer receipts: government social benefits to persons, monthly seasonally adjusted at an annual rate in billions of dollars, using the displayed one-decimal value and ignoring later revisions.
- Data point
- bea.government_social_benefits.level.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.