thesisPrototype

Government data

Belgium unemployment rate, August 2026

What will Eurostat first publish for Belgium's monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in dataset une_rt_m, freq=M, s_adj=SA, age=TOTAL, sex=T, unit=PC_ACT, geo=BE, for August 2026?

Overdue · was due Oct 5, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

registration: series eurostat.unemployment_rate.belgium

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

6.3%
6.1%–6.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%5.8%6.3%6.8%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.1%–6.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (6.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Belgium August 2026 Unemployment

Framing: the registered target is Eurostat une_rt_m, monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment, Belgium, total sex, total age, percentage of population in the labour force, for August 2026, first print. The canonical ledger binds slug belgium-unemployment-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print, and resolutionDate 2026-10-05. I keep that ledger resolutionDate and note the official Eurostat calendar event separately.

▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/o/calendars/eventsJson?start=2026-09-27T00%3A00%3A00%2B02%3A00&end=2026-10-06T00%3A00%3A00%2B02%3A00&theme=0&category=0&keywords=Unemployment&isEuroindicator=true&authorInclude=&authorExclude='
↳ Official Eurostat calendar JSON returned 1 event: recordid 22494146, title Unemployment, period August 2026, start 2026-10-01T11:00Z, datasetCodes une_rt_m, euroind true, preliminary false.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/une_rt_m?format=JSON&lang=en&freq=M&s_adj=SA&age=TOTAL&unit=PC_ACT&sex=T&geo=BE&startPeriod=2024-08&endPeriod=2026-07'
↳ Eurostat statistics API updated 2026-08-12T23:00:00+0200 for freq=M s_adj=SA age=TOTAL unit=PC_ACT sex=T geo=BE. Values fetched: 2024-08 5.7, 2024-09 5.8, 2024-10 5.8, 2024-11 5.9, 2024-12 6.0, 2025-01 6.1, 2025-02 6.2, 2025-03 6.2, 2025-04 6.1, 2025-05 6.0, 2025-06 6.1, 2025-07 6.1, 2025-08 6.1, 2025-09 6.3, 2025-10 6.4, 2025-11 6.4, 2025-12 6.4, 2026-01 6.3, 2026-02 6.3, 2026-03 6.2, 2026-04 6.2, 2026-05 6.3, 2026-06 6.3; July 2026 was not present in the fetched response.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/une_rt_m/M.SA.TOTAL.PC_ACT.T.BE?format=JSON&startPeriod=2024-08&endPeriod=2026-06'
↳ Eurostat SDMX cross-check updated 2026-08-12T23:00:00+0200 returned time indexes 2024-08 through 2026-06 and values 5.7, 5.8, 5.8, 5.9, 6.0, 6.1, 6.2, 6.2, 6.1, 6.0, 6.1, 6.1, 6.1, 6.3, 6.4, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3, 6.3, 6.2, 6.2, 6.3, 6.3.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.pythonmodel report
Compute model candidates from the fetched Eurostat BE total SA history ending 2026-06.
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence: point 6.3, p10 6.1, p50 6.3, p90 6.5, 80 interval [6.1, 6.5], 90 interval [6.1, 6.5], interval_method two-step raw monthly-change residual sigma rounded/widened to one decimal, calibration_n 22 changes, train_cutoff 2026-06, walk_forward_mae 0.056. Mean-change drift candidate: point about 6.4 from mean monthly change +0.027, walk_forward_mae 0.082, weaker than persistence.

Base rate/reference class: the last 23 comparable Eurostat Belgium total SA monthly unemployment prints run from 5.7% to 6.4%, mean 6.139%, median 6.2%, and latest 6.3%. The last 22 month-to-month changes are +0.1, 0.0, +0.1, +0.1, +0.1, +0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.1, +0.1, 0.0, 0.0, +0.2, +0.1, 0.0, 0.0, -0.1, 0.0, -0.1, 0.0, +0.1, 0.0 pp. Last-print persistence is the prior because its walk-forward MAE, 0.056 pp, beats mean-change drift's 0.082 pp.

Prior/update/interval: prior = selected persistence candidate at 6.3 from the fetched 2024-08 to 2026-06 official history; adjustment components = 0.0 pp momentum update and 0.0 pp current-evidence update because no direct public release-specific signal was fetched that clears the update test; point = 6.3 + 0.0 + 0.0 = 6.3. Interval method = two-step raw monthly-change volatility, equivalent to persistence residual changes, because July and August are both unreleased from the June latest print. From the 22 fetched monthly changes, sigma = 0.083 pp; two-step sigma = sqrt(2)*0.083 = 0.117 pp; 80% half-width = 1.28*0.117 = 0.150 pp. Raw 80% interval is 6.3 +/- 0.150 = [6.150, 6.450], widened to one-decimal published bounds [6.1, 6.5] to avoid understating discrete publication rounding over a two-month horizon.

Inside view: Belgium's official series has been flat at 6.2-6.3 since February 2026 after a late-2025 high of 6.4. I fetched no official Belgian or Eurostat current signal that would justify moving materially from the 6.3 persistence prior, so the forecast stays at 6.3 rather than adding a narrative drift.

Upside risk outside the interval: a July-August deterioration like the 2025-08 to 2025-10 rise of +0.3 pp, or a country-specific labour-force shock, would land above the interval. Downside risk outside the interval: a renewed two-month improvement matching or exceeding the 2026-02 to 2026-04 decline of -0.1 pp plus additional acceleration would land below the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fix by specifying that sigma comes from raw monthly changes, equivalent to persistence residual changes. Kept app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json in sourceContext because it was used only to check slug/target metadata, not as forecast-value evidence.

Key drivers

  • June 2026 last print at 6.3%
  • Persistence beats mean-change drift in walk-forward checks
  • Two unreleased monthly steps to August
  • Recent monthly-change sigma is 0.083 pp
  • No direct public signal justifies moving from persistence

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Eurostat monthly unemployment euro-indicators release / une_rt_m data page
Resolution date
October 5, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Eurostat print in table une_rt_m for geo=BE, s_adj=SA, sex=T, age=TOTAL, unit=PC_ACT, time=2026-08, reported in percent to one decimal. Use the first official value published for that monthly observation; do not substitute later revisions. The registered ledger target expected release window ends 2026-10-05; the official Eurostat calendar event fetched during drafting lists Unemployment, period August 2026, on 2026-10-01T11:00Z.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable: resolver, first-print rule, unit, prior, update logic, interval math, tails, and JSON fields are coherent with the registered target.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider removing app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json from sourceContext or state it was used only for target metadata, not forecast values, to avoid any catalog-circularity concern.
  • info optional_suggestion: The interval method would be slightly clearer if it says whether sigma is from raw monthly changes or walk-forward persistence residuals.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fix by specifying that sigma comes from raw monthly changes, equivalent to persistence residual changes. Kept app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json in sourceContext because it was used only to check slug/target metadata, not as forecast-value evidence.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fix by specifying that sigma comes from raw monthly changes, equivalent to persistence residual changes. Kept app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json in sourceContext because it was used only to check slug/target metadata, not as forecast-value evidence.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Belgium August 2026 Unemployment

Framing: the registered target is Eurostat une_rt_m, monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment, Belgium, total sex, total age, percentage of population in the labour force, for August 2026, first print. The canonical ledger binds slug belgium-unemployment-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print, and resolutionDate 2026-10-05. I keep that ledger resolutionDate and note the official Eurostat calendar event separately.

▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/o/calendars/eventsJson?start=2026-09-27T00%3A00%3A00%2B02%3A00&end=2026-10-06T00%3A00%3A00%2B02%3A00&theme=0&category=0&keywords=Unemployment&isEuroindicator=true&authorInclude=&authorExclude='
↳ Official Eurostat calendar JSON returned 1 event: recordid 22494146, title Unemployment, period August 2026, start 2026-10-01T11:00Z, datasetCodes une_rt_m, euroind true, preliminary false.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/une_rt_m?format=JSON&lang=en&freq=M&s_adj=SA&age=TOTAL&unit=PC_ACT&sex=T&geo=BE&startPeriod=2024-08&endPeriod=2026-07'
↳ Eurostat statistics API updated 2026-08-12T23:00:00+0200 for freq=M s_adj=SA age=TOTAL unit=PC_ACT sex=T geo=BE. Values fetched: 2024-08 5.7, 2024-09 5.8, 2024-10 5.8, 2024-11 5.9, 2024-12 6.0, 2025-01 6.1, 2025-02 6.2, 2025-03 6.2, 2025-04 6.1, 2025-05 6.0, 2025-06 6.1, 2025-07 6.1, 2025-08 6.1, 2025-09 6.3, 2025-10 6.4, 2025-11 6.4, 2025-12 6.4, 2026-01 6.3, 2026-02 6.3, 2026-03 6.2, 2026-04 6.2, 2026-05 6.3, 2026-06 6.3; July 2026 was not present in the fetched response.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/une_rt_m/M.SA.TOTAL.PC_ACT.T.BE?format=JSON&startPeriod=2024-08&endPeriod=2026-06'
↳ Eurostat SDMX cross-check updated 2026-08-12T23:00:00+0200 returned time indexes 2024-08 through 2026-06 and values 5.7, 5.8, 5.8, 5.9, 6.0, 6.1, 6.2, 6.2, 6.1, 6.0, 6.1, 6.1, 6.1, 6.3, 6.4, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3, 6.3, 6.2, 6.2, 6.3, 6.3.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.pythonmodel report
Compute model candidates from the fetched Eurostat BE total SA history ending 2026-06.
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1 persistence: point 6.3, p10 6.1, p50 6.3, p90 6.5, 80 interval [6.1, 6.5], 90 interval [6.1, 6.5], interval_method two-step raw monthly-change residual sigma rounded/widened to one decimal, calibration_n 22 changes, train_cutoff 2026-06, walk_forward_mae 0.056. Mean-change drift candidate: point about 6.4 from mean monthly change +0.027, walk_forward_mae 0.082, weaker than persistence.

Base rate/reference class: the last 23 comparable Eurostat Belgium total SA monthly unemployment prints run from 5.7% to 6.4%, mean 6.139%, median 6.2%, and latest 6.3%. The last 22 month-to-month changes are +0.1, 0.0, +0.1, +0.1, +0.1, +0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.1, +0.1, 0.0, 0.0, +0.2, +0.1, 0.0, 0.0, -0.1, 0.0, -0.1, 0.0, +0.1, 0.0 pp. Last-print persistence is the prior because its walk-forward MAE, 0.056 pp, beats mean-change drift's 0.082 pp.

Prior/update/interval: prior = selected persistence candidate at 6.3 from the fetched 2024-08 to 2026-06 official history; adjustment components = 0.0 pp momentum update and 0.0 pp current-evidence update because no direct public release-specific signal was fetched that clears the update test; point = 6.3 + 0.0 + 0.0 = 6.3. Interval method = two-step raw monthly-change volatility, equivalent to persistence residual changes, because July and August are both unreleased from the June latest print. From the 22 fetched monthly changes, sigma = 0.083 pp; two-step sigma = sqrt(2)*0.083 = 0.117 pp; 80% half-width = 1.28*0.117 = 0.150 pp. Raw 80% interval is 6.3 +/- 0.150 = [6.150, 6.450], widened to one-decimal published bounds [6.1, 6.5] to avoid understating discrete publication rounding over a two-month horizon.

Inside view: Belgium's official series has been flat at 6.2-6.3 since February 2026 after a late-2025 high of 6.4. I fetched no official Belgian or Eurostat current signal that would justify moving materially from the 6.3 persistence prior, so the forecast stays at 6.3 rather than adding a narrative drift.

Upside risk outside the interval: a July-August deterioration like the 2025-08 to 2025-10 rise of +0.3 pp, or a country-specific labour-force shock, would land above the interval. Downside risk outside the interval: a renewed two-month improvement matching or exceeding the 2026-02 to 2026-04 decline of -0.1 pp plus additional acceleration would land below the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fix by specifying that sigma comes from raw monthly changes, equivalent to persistence residual changes. Kept app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json in sourceContext because it was used only to check slug/target metadata, not as forecast-value evidence.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
6.3%[6.1% · 6.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print

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