thesisPrototype

Government data

Belgium unemployment rate, July 2026

What will Eurostat first print for Belgium's seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate, age 15-74, in July 2026 in une_rt_m?

Overdue · was due Sep 1, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

registration: series eurostat.unemployment_rate.belgium

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

6.0%
5.8%–6.2%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%5.5%6.0%6.5%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (5.8%–6.2%). Dashed line: point estimate (6.0%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Belgium July 2026 unemployment first print

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets Eurostat table une_rt_m, Belgium geo=BE, seasonally adjusted s_adj=SA, total sex=T, age Y15-74, unit PC_ACT, for 2026-07. I use the same variant for anchors and history and resolve on the first official Eurostat print, rounded to one decimal percent.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Eurostat Euro-indicators release calendar for the Unemployment indicator and the July 2026 monthly release timing.
↳ Official calendar context used for this run: the unemployment release is scheduled for 2026-09-01 in Europe/Luxembourg time, inside the registered 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-03 window; this fixes resolutionDate=2026-09-01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Queried Eurostat une_rt_m for the latest Belgium SA total age 15-74 unemployment rates in percent of active population.
↳ Fetched latest same-variant values: 2026-03=6.1, 2026-04=6.1, 2026-05=6.0 percent for BE, s_adj=SA, sex=T, age=Y15-74, unit=PC_ACT.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Queried Eurostat une_rt_m for a recent reference class of Belgium monthly observations in the same variant.
↳ Fetched recent history: 2025-06=6.5, 2025-07=6.4, 2025-08=6.3, 2025-09=6.2, 2025-10=6.2, 2025-11=6.1, 2025-12=6.1, 2026-01=6.1, 2026-02=6.0, 2026-03=6.1, 2026-04=6.1, 2026-05=6.0 percent.

Base rate / reference class: the same-series outside view is strong persistence around 6.0 to 6.2 percent after a drift down from 6.5 percent in mid-2025. With only June and July still to print before the target, the base rate says July should usually remain within a few tenths of the latest 6.0 percent.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from the 12-month Eurostat same-variant sample is latest value 6.0. Successive monthly changes are -0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.0,-0.1,0.0,0.0,-0.1,+0.1,0.0,-0.1, so sigma = 0.07 percentage point. For a two-month-ahead July value, 1.28*sigma*sqrt(2)=1.28*0.07*1.41=0.13. I widen to 0.20, about 1.54x the mechanical two-step half-width, because first-print monthly labour-force estimates are rounded to one decimal and can absorb small survey noise. With no separate public evidence strong enough to move the latest-value prior, the point remains 6.0; the 80% interval is centered on 6.0 after widening, giving 5.8 to 6.2.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy effects: level is near 6.0; momentum is mildly downward over the prior year but flat in spring 2026; I see no one-off July mechanism large enough to move the rate by more than a few tenths; policy effects are slow-moving and do not justify departing from the persistence prior.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a sharp deterioration in hiring or labour-force re-entry that would push the first print to 6.3 or above, outside the interval. Downside risk is a stronger summer employment gain or favourable survey rotation that would land below the interval at 5.7 or less.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer warning about unsupported upward adjustment; removed the +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment and centered the forecast on the same-series persistence prior. Kept the official release-calendar check and made the widened 80% interval explicitly centered on the rounded 6.0 point.

Key drivers

  • Latest available Belgium monthly unemployment rate was 6.0 percent in the same Eurostat variant.
  • Monthly one-decimal unemployment rates are highly persistent; recent changes are mostly 0.0 or 0.1 percentage point.
  • Recent same-series momentum drifted down over the prior year but was nearly flat in spring 2026.
  • First-print target is the Eurostat seasonally adjusted total age 15-74 PC_ACT variant, not a national unadjusted or revised series.

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Eurostat monthly unemployment euro-indicators release / une_rt_m data page
Resolution date
September 1, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Eurostat print in table une_rt_m for geo=BE, s_adj=SA, sex=T, age=Y15-74, unit=PC_ACT, time=2026-07, reported in percent to one decimal. Use the first official value published for that monthly observation; do not substitute later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable after tightening the evidence for the small upward adjustment from the persistence prior.

  • warning update: The +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment moves the rounded point from a 6.0 latest-value persistence prior to 6.1, but the draft does not cite concrete current evidence for Belgian labour-market softness beyond same-series persistence and mild downward/flat momentum.
  • info optional_suggestion: State explicitly that the 5.9-6.3 interval is centered on the rounded 6.1 point and is an 80% interval after widening for first-print and rounding uncertainty.
  • info optional_suggestion: Keep the Eurostat release-calendar check in the final trace because it supports the 2026-09-01 resolutionDate within the registered release window.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer warning about unsupported upward adjustment; removed the +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment and centered the forecast on the same-series persistence prior. Kept the official release-calendar check and made the widened 80% interval explicitly centered on the rounded 6.0 point.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer warning about unsupported upward adjustment; removed the +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment and centered the forecast on the same-series persistence prior. Kept the official release-calendar check and made the widened 80% interval explicitly centered on the rounded 6.0 point.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer warning about unsupported upward adjustment; removed the +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment and centered the forecast on the same-series persistence prior. Kept the official release-calendar check and made the widened 80% interval explicitly centered on the rounded 6.0 point.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Belgium July 2026 unemployment first print

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets Eurostat table une_rt_m, Belgium geo=BE, seasonally adjusted s_adj=SA, total sex=T, age Y15-74, unit PC_ACT, for 2026-07. I use the same variant for anchors and history and resolve on the first official Eurostat print, rounded to one decimal percent.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Eurostat Euro-indicators release calendar for the Unemployment indicator and the July 2026 monthly release timing.
↳ Official calendar context used for this run: the unemployment release is scheduled for 2026-09-01 in Europe/Luxembourg time, inside the registered 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-03 window; this fixes resolutionDate=2026-09-01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Queried Eurostat une_rt_m for the latest Belgium SA total age 15-74 unemployment rates in percent of active population.
↳ Fetched latest same-variant values: 2026-03=6.1, 2026-04=6.1, 2026-05=6.0 percent for BE, s_adj=SA, sex=T, age=Y15-74, unit=PC_ACT.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Queried Eurostat une_rt_m for a recent reference class of Belgium monthly observations in the same variant.
↳ Fetched recent history: 2025-06=6.5, 2025-07=6.4, 2025-08=6.3, 2025-09=6.2, 2025-10=6.2, 2025-11=6.1, 2025-12=6.1, 2026-01=6.1, 2026-02=6.0, 2026-03=6.1, 2026-04=6.1, 2026-05=6.0 percent.

Base rate / reference class: the same-series outside view is strong persistence around 6.0 to 6.2 percent after a drift down from 6.5 percent in mid-2025. With only June and July still to print before the target, the base rate says July should usually remain within a few tenths of the latest 6.0 percent.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from the 12-month Eurostat same-variant sample is latest value 6.0. Successive monthly changes are -0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.0,-0.1,0.0,0.0,-0.1,+0.1,0.0,-0.1, so sigma = 0.07 percentage point. For a two-month-ahead July value, 1.28*sigma*sqrt(2)=1.28*0.07*1.41=0.13. I widen to 0.20, about 1.54x the mechanical two-step half-width, because first-print monthly labour-force estimates are rounded to one decimal and can absorb small survey noise. With no separate public evidence strong enough to move the latest-value prior, the point remains 6.0; the 80% interval is centered on 6.0 after widening, giving 5.8 to 6.2.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy effects: level is near 6.0; momentum is mildly downward over the prior year but flat in spring 2026; I see no one-off July mechanism large enough to move the rate by more than a few tenths; policy effects are slow-moving and do not justify departing from the persistence prior.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a sharp deterioration in hiring or labour-force re-entry that would push the first print to 6.3 or above, outside the interval. Downside risk is a stronger summer employment gain or favourable survey rotation that would land below the interval at 5.7 or less.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer warning about unsupported upward adjustment; removed the +0.05 soft-labour-market adjustment and centered the forecast on the same-series persistence prior. Kept the official release-calendar check and made the widened 80% interval explicitly centered on the rounded 6.0 point.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
6.0%[5.8% · 6.2%]
Target metadata

Data point: eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_07.first_print

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