thesisPrototype

Government data

US PPI Final Demand MoM, July 2026

What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics first report for the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the Producer Price Index for final demand for July 2026?

Overdue · was due Aug 13, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference, although the target's registration names a resolver adapter.

registration: adapter alfred-fred, series bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change

NO_ROUTE_ADAPTER_REGISTERED · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+0.3%
-0.2%–+0.9%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.9%+0.3%+1.6%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.2%–+0.9%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US PPI final demand monthly change for July 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, one-month percent change for July 2026, group code FD item code 4. The variant is the headline final-demand SA monthly percent change in Table 1, first print only, not the unadjusted 12-month change and not later revised data.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS Producer Price Index release schedule for the July 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS lists Producer Price Index for July 2026 with release date Aug. 13, 2026 and release time 08:30 AM; the full 2026 selected-release calendar also shows Producer Price Index for July 2026 on Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the latest BLS PPI news release for June 2026 and Table A recent history for the same SA final-demand monthly-change variant.
↳ BLS reported final demand fell -0.3 percent in June 2026, advanced 0.6 percent in May 2026, and advanced 1.1 percent in April 2026; Table A also shows Jan. 2026 0.6, Feb. 2026 0.5, Mar. 2026 0.8, and July 2025 0.8.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS Table 1 component details for the latest release to separate energy, goods, and services mechanisms.
↳ For June 2026, Table 1 shows final demand -0.3, final demand goods -1.4, final demand energy -6.4, final demand foods -0.6, goods less foods and energy 0.2, final demand services 0.2, and final demand less foods, energy, and trade services 0.1.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked EIA gasoline data as a public energy-price cross-check for July conditions before the PPI release.
↳ EIA all-grades U.S. gasoline was 4.187 on 06/15/26, 4.048 on 06/22/26, 3.964 on 06/29/26, 3.911 on 07/06/26, 3.987 on 07/13/26, and 4.131 on 07/20/26 dollars per gallon; EIA monthly regular gasoline was 4.050 in Jun-26 after 4.479 in May-26.

Reference class/base rate: using the same BLS final-demand SA monthly percent-change series from June 2025 through June 2026 gives values 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.8, 1.1, 0.6, -0.3, a base rate mean of about 0.43 percentage point per month. The recent reference class is hot but very energy-sensitive.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class prior is the Jun. 2025-Jun. 2026 BLS Table A history with mean 0.43; no separate AR or other time-series forecasting model was used beyond this 13-month persistence/reference-class prior. Adjustment components: -0.15 for June's large energy drop not fully reversing because partial July gasoline is below the June monthly average despite a late-month rise, +0.05 for still-positive services and core final-demand pressure, and +0.02 for high 5.5 percent 12-month headline PPI momentum, giving 0.43 - 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.02 = 0.35. EIA retail gasoline is a directional energy proxy, not the PPI energy component itself. For the 80% interval, the sample standard deviation of the 13 monthly changes is sigma = 0.40 percentage point, so half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.40 = 0.51; 0.35 +/- 0.51 gives -0.16 to 0.86.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a larger July pass-through from renewed gasoline, diesel, crude, trade-margin, or tariff-related cost pressure, which would land above the interval if headline final-demand energy and services both spike. Downside risk is a second month of falling fuels or a reversal in trade margins, which would land below the interval if final-demand goods repeat a June-like decline. An outside the interval outcome would likely require another energy shock or a broad services-margin reversal rather than ordinary monthly noise.

Review disposition: accepted the model-prior clarification by stating that no separate AR or other forecasting model was used beyond the 13-month persistence/reference-class prior; also accepted concise clarifications that EIA gasoline is only a directional proxy and that resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.

Key drivers

  • Recent final-demand PPI base rate is positive but volatile
  • June decline was energy-led and unlikely to repeat at the same size
  • Services inflation remained positive in June
  • July gasoline readings were rising by late month but still near or below the June monthly average
  • High 12-month PPI inflation keeps upside pressure on non-energy components

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index news release, Table 1
Resolution date
August 13, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first BLS-published seasonally adjusted 1-month percent change for Final demand, group code FD item code 4, in the Producer Price Index news release for July 2026, scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Use the first print as published, in percent, rounded to the BLS one-decimal release value; do not replace it with later revisions. The decimal point estimate and interval here are forecast values, while resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with only minor clarification needed around the model-prior framing.

  • warning model_prior: The draft uses a persistence/reference-class prior but does not explicitly say whether a separate time-series model was used or ruled out.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that EIA retail gasoline is only a directional energy proxy, not the PPI energy component itself.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider explaining that the decimal point estimate and interval are forecast values even though resolution will use the BLS one-decimal first print.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the model-prior clarification by stating that no separate AR or other forecasting model was used beyond the 13-month persistence/reference-class prior; also accepted concise clarifications that EIA gasoline is only a directional proxy and that resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the model-prior clarification by stating that no separate AR or other forecasting model was used beyond the 13-month persistence/reference-class prior; also accepted concise clarifications that EIA gasoline is only a directional proxy and that resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the model-prior clarification by stating that no separate AR or other forecasting model was used beyond the 13-month persistence/reference-class prior; also accepted concise clarifications that EIA gasoline is only a directional proxy and that resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US PPI final demand monthly change for July 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, one-month percent change for July 2026, group code FD item code 4. The variant is the headline final-demand SA monthly percent change in Table 1, first print only, not the unadjusted 12-month change and not later revised data.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS Producer Price Index release schedule for the July 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS lists Producer Price Index for July 2026 with release date Aug. 13, 2026 and release time 08:30 AM; the full 2026 selected-release calendar also shows Producer Price Index for July 2026 on Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the latest BLS PPI news release for June 2026 and Table A recent history for the same SA final-demand monthly-change variant.
↳ BLS reported final demand fell -0.3 percent in June 2026, advanced 0.6 percent in May 2026, and advanced 1.1 percent in April 2026; Table A also shows Jan. 2026 0.6, Feb. 2026 0.5, Mar. 2026 0.8, and July 2025 0.8.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS Table 1 component details for the latest release to separate energy, goods, and services mechanisms.
↳ For June 2026, Table 1 shows final demand -0.3, final demand goods -1.4, final demand energy -6.4, final demand foods -0.6, goods less foods and energy 0.2, final demand services 0.2, and final demand less foods, energy, and trade services 0.1.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked EIA gasoline data as a public energy-price cross-check for July conditions before the PPI release.
↳ EIA all-grades U.S. gasoline was 4.187 on 06/15/26, 4.048 on 06/22/26, 3.964 on 06/29/26, 3.911 on 07/06/26, 3.987 on 07/13/26, and 4.131 on 07/20/26 dollars per gallon; EIA monthly regular gasoline was 4.050 in Jun-26 after 4.479 in May-26.

Reference class/base rate: using the same BLS final-demand SA monthly percent-change series from June 2025 through June 2026 gives values 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.8, 1.1, 0.6, -0.3, a base rate mean of about 0.43 percentage point per month. The recent reference class is hot but very energy-sensitive.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class prior is the Jun. 2025-Jun. 2026 BLS Table A history with mean 0.43; no separate AR or other time-series forecasting model was used beyond this 13-month persistence/reference-class prior. Adjustment components: -0.15 for June's large energy drop not fully reversing because partial July gasoline is below the June monthly average despite a late-month rise, +0.05 for still-positive services and core final-demand pressure, and +0.02 for high 5.5 percent 12-month headline PPI momentum, giving 0.43 - 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.02 = 0.35. EIA retail gasoline is a directional energy proxy, not the PPI energy component itself. For the 80% interval, the sample standard deviation of the 13 monthly changes is sigma = 0.40 percentage point, so half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.40 = 0.51; 0.35 +/- 0.51 gives -0.16 to 0.86.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a larger July pass-through from renewed gasoline, diesel, crude, trade-margin, or tariff-related cost pressure, which would land above the interval if headline final-demand energy and services both spike. Downside risk is a second month of falling fuels or a reversal in trade margins, which would land below the interval if final-demand goods repeat a June-like decline. An outside the interval outcome would likely require another energy shock or a broad services-margin reversal rather than ordinary monthly noise.

Review disposition: accepted the model-prior clarification by stating that no separate AR or other forecasting model was used beyond the 13-month persistence/reference-class prior; also accepted concise clarifications that EIA gasoline is only a directional proxy and that resolution uses the BLS one-decimal first print.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.3%[-0.2% · +0.9%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.wp.WPSFD4.2026-07.first_print

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