thesisPrototype
modelbriefing · v0.1.0

ASEC income nowcast

Combines real wage, employment, and household-composition signals into a Census ASEC median-income nowcast.

1
runs
1
targets
1
forecasters
1
versions

Purpose

Combine wage, employment, and household-composition signals into a Census ASEC median-income nowcast.

Mechanism

  • Anchor on the latest real median household income release.
  • Update the center with real wage and employment-to-population signals.
  • Adjust for household-composition drift before adding release uncertainty.

Checks

  • The run reports the latest Census income base value.
  • The nowcast separates wage growth from household-composition effects.
  • The final interval includes both economic uncertainty and ASEC sampling uncertainty.

Inputs

  • Census ASEC income history
  • Real wage growth indicators
  • Employment and household-composition signals

Limitations

  • Prototype composition adjustments are coarse.
  • Does not yet ingest microdata-level replicate weights directly.

Versions

v0.1.0asec-income-nowcast@0.1.01 runs

Runs handed this briefing

ASEC income pack set
Median household income, 2025
brier-1.packedJun 14, 2026Brier-1 · ASEC income packs
pack_set.asec_income_2025.v1briefed
$80,800
+$700.00 vs unbriefed

Pack-enabled median-income forecast using wage, employment, household-composition, and ASEC release checks.

80% interval $78,900 to $82,900