thesisPrototype
modelbriefing · v0.1.0

PCE-CPI bridge

Maps CPI component information into BEA PCE concepts with scope, weight, and source-data adjustments.

2
runs
2
targets
2
forecasters
1
versions

Purpose

Map CPI component information into BEA PCE concepts before the PCE release.

Mechanism

  • Separate CPI source-data signals by component.
  • Adjust for PCE scope, formula, and component-weight differences.
  • Calibrate the bridge to the BEA release surface rather than the CPI release.

Checks

  • The run states why CPI information is relevant but not identical to PCE.
  • The trace names at least one scope or weight adjustment.
  • The final forecast remains in the PCE target unit and release rule.

Inputs

  • Core CPI source-data signals
  • BEA core PCE history
  • Known CPI-PCE scope and weight differences

Limitations

  • Prototype bridge is component-level, not item-level.
  • Does not ingest unreleased BEA source-data revisions.

Versions

v0.1.0pce-cpi-bridge@0.1.02 runs

Runs handed this briefing

May core PCE bridge pack set
Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.core_pce_may_2026.v1briefed
+0.3%
+0.1% vs unbriefed

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.4%