thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada CPI annual rate, August 2026

What will Statistics Canada first publish for Canada all-items Consumer Price Index, Table 18-10-0004-01, vector v41690973, not seasonally adjusted, for August 2026, transformed as percent change from one year earlier and rounded to one decimal percent?

Overdue · was due Sep 14, 2026

The resolver refused this target at its first-print check.

FIRST_PRINT_WINDOW_MISSED · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

2.8%
2.3%–3.3%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%1.55%2.8%4.05%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (2.3%–3.3%). Dashed line: point estimate (2.8%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada CPI August 2026 First Print

Target is the registered Canada all-items CPI annual rate for August 2026. The ledger binds slug canada-cpi-annual-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_08.first_print, StatCan vector v41690973, and first_print resolution. The registered expectedReleaseWindow has start=end 2026-09-14; a static fetch of the StatCan release calendar page did not expose the event row, so I used the ledger-bound release window and did not infer any alternate date from cadence. The specs.json check was used only for target identity and slug context, not for any forecast point or interval.

▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -X POST 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods' -d '[{"vectorId":41690973,"latestN":30}]'
↳ Fetched StatCan vector 41690973 values include 2025-08=164.8, 2025-12=165.0, 2026-01=165.0, 2026-02=165.9, 2026-03=167.4, 2026-04=168.0, 2026-05=169.6, 2026-06=169.0; latest releaseTime for 2026-06 is 2026-07-20T08:30.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401'
↳ Fetched StatCan Table 18-10-0004-01 page: title Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; row All-items Canada shows February 2026=165.9, March 2026=167.4, April 2026=168.0, May 2026=169.6, June 2026=169.0; table unit is 2002=100.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.nodemodel report
compute YoY transform and model candidates from fetched StatCan vector values
↳ Computed YoY history from fetched indices: 2025-08=1.854, 2025-09=2.359, 2025-10=2.163, 2025-11=2.225, 2025-12=2.357, 2026-01=2.294, 2026-02=1.779, 2026-03=2.385, 2026-04=2.815, 2026-05=3.226, 2026-06=2.798. June-Aug cumulative index moves were 2024=0.248 percent and 2025=0.243 percent; applying their 0.246 percent average to June 2026 index 169.0 gives implied August 2026 index 169.415 and August YoY 2.800 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.nodemodel report
build thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched history
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1: last_print_persistence_yoy point=2.8, p10=2.3, p50=2.8, p90=3.3, 80 interval=[2.3,3.3], 90 interval=[2.1,3.4], calibration_n=17, train_cutoff=2026-06; two-year_jul_aug_seasonal_carry_from_index point=2.8, p10=2.3, p50=2.8, p90=3.3, 80 interval=[2.3,3.3], 90 interval=[2.2,3.4], calibration_n=17, train_cutoff=2026-06.

Base rate / reference class: latest 18 transformed first-print YoY values from 2025-01 through 2026-06 have mean 2.232, range 1.727 to 3.226, q10 1.740 and q90 2.803. The strongest simple benchmark is last-print persistence at the June 2026 YoY value of 2.798, rounded to 2.8 percent.

Prior/update/interval: prior is last-print persistence, 2.798 percent from 2026-06. Historical sample is 18 transformed StatCan vector values from 2025-01 to 2026-06. Update components: +0.002 percentage point from the two-year June-to-August seasonal carry model, because 2024 and 2025 June-August cumulative index moves average 0.246 percent and imply August YoY 2.800; no additional current-evidence adjustment. Successive YoY changes are 0.750, -0.330, -0.572, -0.009, 0.125, -0.132, 0.127, 0.505, -0.196, 0.062, 0.132, -0.063, -0.515, 0.606, 0.430, 0.411, -0.428, so sigma = 0.394 percentage points and 1.28*sigma = 0.505. Rounded 80 percent interval is 2.8 +/- 0.5 = [2.3, 3.3].

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would require a sharper July-August price rise than the 2024-2025 seasonal carry, for example renewed energy or travel price spikes pushing the August index above about 170.2. Downside risk outside the interval would require July-August prices to fall enough to put the August index below about 168.6, such as broad gasoline and goods deflation.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications that specs.json was used only for target metadata and that the 2026-09-14 date is ledger-bound expectedReleaseWindow evidence after the calendar fetch did not expose a usable event row; no reviewer-required fixes were present.

Key drivers

  • latest first-print YoY persistence at 2.8 percent
  • June-to-August seasonal carry in 2024 and 2025 implies 2.8 percent
  • recent YoY changes have sigma 0.394 percentage points
  • no direct current signal large enough to override persistence

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, Table 18-10-0004-01
Resolution date
September 14, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01, Canada, all-items Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973, first print for August 2026. Compute 100 * (August 2026 index / August 2025 index - 1), factor 1, round to one decimal percent. Later revisions or corrections are ignored under first_print policy.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

The draft satisfies the publication review rubric with no blocking fixes needed.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify whether app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json was used only for target metadata, not for any catalog forecast point or interval.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the release-date evidence as ledger-bound expectedReleaseWindow rather than a failed calendar fetch.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications that specs.json was used only for target metadata and that the 2026-09-14 date is ledger-bound expectedReleaseWindow evidence after the calendar fetch did not expose a usable event row; no reviewer-required fixes were present.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications that specs.json was used only for target metadata and that the 2026-09-14 date is ledger-bound expectedReleaseWindow evidence after the calendar fetch did not expose a usable event row; no reviewer-required fixes were present.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada CPI August 2026 First Print

Target is the registered Canada all-items CPI annual rate for August 2026. The ledger binds slug canada-cpi-annual-rate-august-2026, unit percent, dataPointId statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_08.first_print, StatCan vector v41690973, and first_print resolution. The registered expectedReleaseWindow has start=end 2026-09-14; a static fetch of the StatCan release calendar page did not expose the event row, so I used the ledger-bound release window and did not infer any alternate date from cadence. The specs.json check was used only for target identity and slug context, not for any forecast point or interval.

▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -X POST 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods' -d '[{"vectorId":41690973,"latestN":30}]'
↳ Fetched StatCan vector 41690973 values include 2025-08=164.8, 2025-12=165.0, 2026-01=165.0, 2026-02=165.9, 2026-03=167.4, 2026-04=168.0, 2026-05=169.6, 2026-06=169.0; latest releaseTime for 2026-06 is 2026-07-20T08:30.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.curlmodel report
curl -sS -L 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401'
↳ Fetched StatCan Table 18-10-0004-01 page: title Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; row All-items Canada shows February 2026=165.9, March 2026=167.4, April 2026=168.0, May 2026=169.6, June 2026=169.0; table unit is 2002=100.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.nodemodel report
compute YoY transform and model candidates from fetched StatCan vector values
↳ Computed YoY history from fetched indices: 2025-08=1.854, 2025-09=2.359, 2025-10=2.163, 2025-11=2.225, 2025-12=2.357, 2026-01=2.294, 2026-02=1.779, 2026-03=2.385, 2026-04=2.815, 2026-05=3.226, 2026-06=2.798. June-Aug cumulative index moves were 2024=0.248 percent and 2025=0.243 percent; applying their 0.246 percent average to June 2026 index 169.0 gives implied August 2026 index 169.415 and August YoY 2.800 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: shell.nodemodel report
build thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched history
↳ thesis_model_candidate_v1: last_print_persistence_yoy point=2.8, p10=2.3, p50=2.8, p90=3.3, 80 interval=[2.3,3.3], 90 interval=[2.1,3.4], calibration_n=17, train_cutoff=2026-06; two-year_jul_aug_seasonal_carry_from_index point=2.8, p10=2.3, p50=2.8, p90=3.3, 80 interval=[2.3,3.3], 90 interval=[2.2,3.4], calibration_n=17, train_cutoff=2026-06.

Base rate / reference class: latest 18 transformed first-print YoY values from 2025-01 through 2026-06 have mean 2.232, range 1.727 to 3.226, q10 1.740 and q90 2.803. The strongest simple benchmark is last-print persistence at the June 2026 YoY value of 2.798, rounded to 2.8 percent.

Prior/update/interval: prior is last-print persistence, 2.798 percent from 2026-06. Historical sample is 18 transformed StatCan vector values from 2025-01 to 2026-06. Update components: +0.002 percentage point from the two-year June-to-August seasonal carry model, because 2024 and 2025 June-August cumulative index moves average 0.246 percent and imply August YoY 2.800; no additional current-evidence adjustment. Successive YoY changes are 0.750, -0.330, -0.572, -0.009, 0.125, -0.132, 0.127, 0.505, -0.196, 0.062, 0.132, -0.063, -0.515, 0.606, 0.430, 0.411, -0.428, so sigma = 0.394 percentage points and 1.28*sigma = 0.505. Rounded 80 percent interval is 2.8 +/- 0.5 = [2.3, 3.3].

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would require a sharper July-August price rise than the 2024-2025 seasonal carry, for example renewed energy or travel price spikes pushing the August index above about 170.2. Downside risk outside the interval would require July-August prices to fall enough to put the August index below about 168.6, such as broad gasoline and goods deflation.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications that specs.json was used only for target metadata and that the 2026-09-14 date is ledger-bound expectedReleaseWindow evidence after the calendar fetch did not expose a usable event row; no reviewer-required fixes were present.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
2.8%[2.3% · 3.3%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_08.first_print

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