thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada CPI annual rate, July 2026

What will Statistics Canada first report as the year-over-year percent change in the all-items Consumer Price Index for Canada, not seasonally adjusted, for July 2026?

Overdue · was due Aug 17, 2026

The resolver routes this target's reference, but its last run printed no line naming this target.

NO_REPORT · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

2.7%
2.2%–3.2%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%1.45%2.7%3.95%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (2.2%–3.2%). Dashed line: point estimate (2.7%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada July 2026 CPI annual-rate forecast

Resolver framing: this is the Statistics Canada all-items CPI for Canada, not seasonally adjusted, Table 18-10-0004-01, vector v41690973. I am forecasting the first official July 2026 print, converted to the year-over-year percent change and rounded to one decimal, with resolution through the canonical StatCan WDS endpoint for the vector and table context as support.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada CPI portal and June 2026 Daily release to verify release timing and current headline CPI context.
↳ Statistics Canada says June 2026 CPI was 2.8% year over year, May 2026 was 3.2%, June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, and the July CPI will be released Monday, August 17.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01 for the not seasonally adjusted all-items CPI index levels used by the resolver.
↳ Table 18-10-0004-01 shows all-items Canada CPI index values of 169.0 for June 2026, 169.6 for May 2026, 168.0 for April 2026, 164.9 for July 2025, and 164.4 for June 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Bank of Canada CPI table for recent 12-month all-items CPI rates and core context.
↳ The Bank of Canada table lists all-items 12-month CPI rates of 2.8% for 2026-06, 3.2% for 2026-05, 2.8% for 2026-04, 2.4% for 2026-03, 1.8% for 2026-02, and 2.3% for 2026-01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Bank of Canada July 2026 projection page for the near-term inflation reference class.
↳ The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection shows CPI inflation at 3.0% for 2026 Q2 and 2.5% for 2026 Q3, with core inflation at 2.1% for Q2 and 2.0% for Q3.

Base rate / reference class: the latest 12-month rates from July 2025 through June 2026 were 1.7, 1.9, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2, 2.4, 2.3, 1.8, 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, and 2.8 percent. A one-month persistence prior starts at 2.8 percent, while the Bank of Canada Q3 projection pulls the quarter-average reference point down toward 2.5 percent.

July index translation: keeping the June 2026 index unchanged at 169.0 against the July 2025 base of 164.9 would imply 100*(169.0/164.9-1)=2.5%. A moderate July NSA increase to about 169.4 implies 100*(169.4/164.9-1)=2.7%, so the point forecast is 2.7%.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior model = latest year-over-year rate of 2.8%; historical sample = July 2025-June 2026 12-month rates listed above; adjustment components = -0.2 percentage point for Bank of Canada Q3 easing signal and ex-gasoline 2.2% anchor, +0.1 percentage point for partial gasoline/travel volatility after June's 0.4% monthly CPI drop; point = 2.7%. Successive changes in the July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates have sigma = 0.37 percentage point, so the 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47 percentage point. Rounded one-decimal interval: 2.7 +/- 0.47 gives 2.2% to 3.2%.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed gasoline or travel-services jump that pushes July CPI above about 170.2, which would land above the interval; downside risk is another gasoline decline or broad goods softness that leaves July CPI near 168.5, which would land outside the interval below 2.2%.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the StatCan WDS endpoint the resolutionSourceUrl and keeping the human table page as supporting context; accepted the sigma clarification by naming successive changes in July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates; kept August 17, 2026 as the ledger-aligned official expected first-print release date.

Key drivers

  • June headline deceleration from gasoline
  • ex-gasoline CPI steady near 2.2 percent
  • Bank of Canada projects Q3 CPI easing toward 2.5 percent
  • July base month index of 164.9 limits year-over-year upside
  • travel and gasoline volatility keep upside risk alive

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index release and Table 18-10-0004-01 via StatCan WDS vector v41690973
Resolution date
August 17, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for July 2026 all-items CPI, Canada, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973 in Table 18-10-0004-01, transformed as 100*(July 2026 index / July 2025 index - 1) and reported to one decimal percent. Ignore later revisions or corrections after the first official print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable after tightening the canonical resolver URL/source binding to match the ledger.

  • warning resolver: The draft uses the human table URL as resolutionSourceUrl, while the ledger sourceBinding specifies the StatCan WDS endpoint for vector v41690973.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the sigma is computed from successive changes in the July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates, not from levels or forecast errors.
  • info optional_suggestion: Mention that the August 17, 2026 date is the official expected first-print release window from the target ledger.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the StatCan WDS endpoint the resolutionSourceUrl and keeping the human table page as supporting context; accepted the sigma clarification by naming successive changes in July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates; kept August 17, 2026 as the ledger-aligned official expected first-print release date.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the StatCan WDS endpoint the resolutionSourceUrl and keeping the human table page as supporting context; accepted the sigma clarification by naming successive changes in July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates; kept August 17, 2026 as the ledger-aligned official expected first-print release date.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the StatCan WDS endpoint the resolutionSourceUrl and keeping the human table page as supporting context; accepted the sigma clarification by naming successive changes in July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates; kept August 17, 2026 as the ledger-aligned official expected first-print release date.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada July 2026 CPI annual-rate forecast

Resolver framing: this is the Statistics Canada all-items CPI for Canada, not seasonally adjusted, Table 18-10-0004-01, vector v41690973. I am forecasting the first official July 2026 print, converted to the year-over-year percent change and rounded to one decimal, with resolution through the canonical StatCan WDS endpoint for the vector and table context as support.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada CPI portal and June 2026 Daily release to verify release timing and current headline CPI context.
↳ Statistics Canada says June 2026 CPI was 2.8% year over year, May 2026 was 3.2%, June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, and the July CPI will be released Monday, August 17.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01 for the not seasonally adjusted all-items CPI index levels used by the resolver.
↳ Table 18-10-0004-01 shows all-items Canada CPI index values of 169.0 for June 2026, 169.6 for May 2026, 168.0 for April 2026, 164.9 for July 2025, and 164.4 for June 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Bank of Canada CPI table for recent 12-month all-items CPI rates and core context.
↳ The Bank of Canada table lists all-items 12-month CPI rates of 2.8% for 2026-06, 3.2% for 2026-05, 2.8% for 2026-04, 2.4% for 2026-03, 1.8% for 2026-02, and 2.3% for 2026-01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Bank of Canada July 2026 projection page for the near-term inflation reference class.
↳ The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection shows CPI inflation at 3.0% for 2026 Q2 and 2.5% for 2026 Q3, with core inflation at 2.1% for Q2 and 2.0% for Q3.

Base rate / reference class: the latest 12-month rates from July 2025 through June 2026 were 1.7, 1.9, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2, 2.4, 2.3, 1.8, 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, and 2.8 percent. A one-month persistence prior starts at 2.8 percent, while the Bank of Canada Q3 projection pulls the quarter-average reference point down toward 2.5 percent.

July index translation: keeping the June 2026 index unchanged at 169.0 against the July 2025 base of 164.9 would imply 100*(169.0/164.9-1)=2.5%. A moderate July NSA increase to about 169.4 implies 100*(169.4/164.9-1)=2.7%, so the point forecast is 2.7%.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior model = latest year-over-year rate of 2.8%; historical sample = July 2025-June 2026 12-month rates listed above; adjustment components = -0.2 percentage point for Bank of Canada Q3 easing signal and ex-gasoline 2.2% anchor, +0.1 percentage point for partial gasoline/travel volatility after June's 0.4% monthly CPI drop; point = 2.7%. Successive changes in the July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates have sigma = 0.37 percentage point, so the 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47 percentage point. Rounded one-decimal interval: 2.7 +/- 0.47 gives 2.2% to 3.2%.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed gasoline or travel-services jump that pushes July CPI above about 170.2, which would land above the interval; downside risk is another gasoline decline or broad goods softness that leaves July CPI near 168.5, which would land outside the interval below 2.2%.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the StatCan WDS endpoint the resolutionSourceUrl and keeping the human table page as supporting context; accepted the sigma clarification by naming successive changes in July 2025-June 2026 year-over-year rates; kept August 17, 2026 as the ledger-aligned official expected first-print release date.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
2.7%[2.2% · 3.2%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_07.first_print

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