thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada CPI YoY Sep 2026

What will Statistics Canada first print as the Consumer Price Index, all-items, Canada, not seasonally adjusted, 12-month percent change for September 2026?

Forecast

3.0%
2.5%–3.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
1.52.333.82025-082026-07Oct 20263.0%
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%1.75%3.0%4.25%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (2.5%–3.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (3.0%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada September 2026 CPI annual rate

The target is the first-print 12-month percent change for Statistics Canada all-items CPI, Canada, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973 in Table 18-10-0004-01. The resolution date is tied to the official Statistics Canada release-calendar basis for Consumer Price Index, September 2026 on 2026-10-19.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Statistics Canada schedule documentation and release calendar endpoint for key indicators.
↳ The schedule-key_indicators-eng.json service is the Statistics Canada major-indicator schedule with future release dates; the target schedule row used here is Consumer Price Index, September 2026 on 2026-10-19, with Daily releases normally posted at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Statistics Canada CPI portal for current Canada CPI status and next-release context.
↳ Statistics Canada CPI portal showed Canada Consumer Price Index July 2026 12-month change at 3.0 percent, annual average CPI 2025 at 164.2, and the next CPI release for August 2026 on 2026-09-14.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent Statistics Canada WDS values for vector v41690973 annual CPI rates.
↳ Recent v41690973 annual rates: 2025-08 1.9, 2025-09 2.4, 2025-10 2.2, 2025-11 2.2, 2025-12 2.4, 2026-01 2.3, 2026-02 1.8, 2026-03 2.4, 2026-04 2.8, 2026-05 3.2, 2026-06 2.8, 2026-07 3.0 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched level anchors for the all-items not seasonally adjusted CPI index path from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01.
↳ Total CPI index anchors: 2026-07 169.9, 2026-06 169.0, 2026-05 169.6, 2025-09 164.9, 2024-09 161.1, 2023-09 158.5.

The reference class base rate is the recent monthly annual inflation path for the same variant: not seasonally adjusted all-items CPI, Canada. The latest 12 fetched annual rates average 2.45 percent, while the latest four average 2.95 percent, so persistence around 3.0 percent is a better near-term prior than the full-year mean.

Prior/update/interval: Persistence prior is July 2026 annual CPI inflation at 3.0 percent, using the latest 12 fetched v41690973 annual rates as the historical sample. Level effect: July 2026 index was 169.9 and September 2025 base was 164.9. Momentum and seasonality: 2021-2025 July-to-September index changes were +0.6, -0.4, +0.4, -1.0, and 0.0 index points, average -0.08, implying September 2026 index 169.82. Point arithmetic: (169.82 / 164.9 - 1) * 100 = 2.98, rounded to 3.0 percent. Interval method: successive changes in the 12 fetched annual rates were +0.5, -0.2, 0.0, +0.2, -0.1, -0.5, +0.6, +0.4, +0.4, -0.4, +0.2, so sigma = 0.37; 1.28*sigma = 0.47, giving an 80 percent interval about 3.0 +/- 0.5, or 2.5 to 3.5 percent.

Upside risk is a gasoline or food jump through August and September, or renewed shelter acceleration, which would land above the interval if the September index reaches roughly 170.7 or higher. Downside risk is a broad energy pullback or softer travel/vehicle prices, which would land below the interval if the September index is roughly 168.9 or lower. An outside the interval result would therefore most likely reflect a large two-month level surprise rather than rounding noise.

Review disposition: Accepted the source-grounding suggestion by naming the Statistics Canada WDS vector/table basis for the annual-rate and level-anchor fetches, and accepted the calibration suggestion by removing the unused core-inflation driver from the driver list.

Key drivers

  • July annual CPI inflation already at 3.0 percent
  • Recent four-print average near 3.0 percent
  • July-to-September seasonal index change usually small
  • September 2025 base index was 164.9

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted, Table 18-10-0004-01
Resolution date
October 19, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for vector v41690973, Consumer Price Index all-items Canada from Table 18-10-0004-01, transformed as percent change from the same month one year earlier and rounded to one decimal percent. Use the first official release only; ignore later revisions or corrections unless Statistics Canada withdraws the first print before resolution.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with no blocking issues; resolver contract, prior/update/interval, tails, and JSON fields are coherent with the target.

  • info optional_suggestion: Identify the exact source used for the historical CPI annual-rate and level anchors if it was not the registered Statistics Canada WDS endpoint.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider either quantifying or removing the driver that core inflation measures remain near 2 percent, since it is not used in the arithmetic update.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the source-grounding suggestion by naming the Statistics Canada WDS vector/table basis for the annual-rate and level-anchor fetches, and accepted the calibration suggestion by removing the unused core-inflation driver from the driver list.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the source-grounding suggestion by naming the Statistics Canada WDS vector/table basis for the annual-rate and level-anchor fetches, and accepted the calibration suggestion by removing the unused core-inflation driver from the driver list.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada September 2026 CPI annual rate

The target is the first-print 12-month percent change for Statistics Canada all-items CPI, Canada, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973 in Table 18-10-0004-01. The resolution date is tied to the official Statistics Canada release-calendar basis for Consumer Price Index, September 2026 on 2026-10-19.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Statistics Canada schedule documentation and release calendar endpoint for key indicators.
↳ The schedule-key_indicators-eng.json service is the Statistics Canada major-indicator schedule with future release dates; the target schedule row used here is Consumer Price Index, September 2026 on 2026-10-19, with Daily releases normally posted at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Statistics Canada CPI portal for current Canada CPI status and next-release context.
↳ Statistics Canada CPI portal showed Canada Consumer Price Index July 2026 12-month change at 3.0 percent, annual average CPI 2025 at 164.2, and the next CPI release for August 2026 on 2026-09-14.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent Statistics Canada WDS values for vector v41690973 annual CPI rates.
↳ Recent v41690973 annual rates: 2025-08 1.9, 2025-09 2.4, 2025-10 2.2, 2025-11 2.2, 2025-12 2.4, 2026-01 2.3, 2026-02 1.8, 2026-03 2.4, 2026-04 2.8, 2026-05 3.2, 2026-06 2.8, 2026-07 3.0 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched level anchors for the all-items not seasonally adjusted CPI index path from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01.
↳ Total CPI index anchors: 2026-07 169.9, 2026-06 169.0, 2026-05 169.6, 2025-09 164.9, 2024-09 161.1, 2023-09 158.5.

The reference class base rate is the recent monthly annual inflation path for the same variant: not seasonally adjusted all-items CPI, Canada. The latest 12 fetched annual rates average 2.45 percent, while the latest four average 2.95 percent, so persistence around 3.0 percent is a better near-term prior than the full-year mean.

Prior/update/interval: Persistence prior is July 2026 annual CPI inflation at 3.0 percent, using the latest 12 fetched v41690973 annual rates as the historical sample. Level effect: July 2026 index was 169.9 and September 2025 base was 164.9. Momentum and seasonality: 2021-2025 July-to-September index changes were +0.6, -0.4, +0.4, -1.0, and 0.0 index points, average -0.08, implying September 2026 index 169.82. Point arithmetic: (169.82 / 164.9 - 1) * 100 = 2.98, rounded to 3.0 percent. Interval method: successive changes in the 12 fetched annual rates were +0.5, -0.2, 0.0, +0.2, -0.1, -0.5, +0.6, +0.4, +0.4, -0.4, +0.2, so sigma = 0.37; 1.28*sigma = 0.47, giving an 80 percent interval about 3.0 +/- 0.5, or 2.5 to 3.5 percent.

Upside risk is a gasoline or food jump through August and September, or renewed shelter acceleration, which would land above the interval if the September index reaches roughly 170.7 or higher. Downside risk is a broad energy pullback or softer travel/vehicle prices, which would land below the interval if the September index is roughly 168.9 or lower. An outside the interval result would therefore most likely reflect a large two-month level surprise rather than rounding noise.

Review disposition: Accepted the source-grounding suggestion by naming the Statistics Canada WDS vector/table basis for the annual-rate and level-anchor fetches, and accepted the calibration suggestion by removing the unused core-inflation driver from the driver list.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
3.0%[2.5% · 3.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_09.first_print

More government data forecasts