thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026

What will Statistics Canada first print for Canada regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries, seasonally adjusted, for June 2026, in Table 14-10-0011-01?

Overdue · was due Aug 20, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

535k
519k–551k
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%495k535k575kForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (519k–551k). Dashed line: point estimate (535k).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01, Canada, regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries, monthly, seasonally adjusted, June 2026, first print, converted from persons to thousands. The ledger table description mentions The Daily release for May 2026, but the catalog slug, dataPointId, expected release window, and question period identify June 2026, so I keep the forecast tied to the June 2026 target.

Resolution timing: the Statistics Canada 2026 release schedule and the April EI release notice place the EI sequence on July 23, 2026 for May 2026 and August 20, 2026 for June 2026 within the registered August 19 to August 27 window. I therefore use 2026-08-20 as the first-print resolution date rather than inferring solely from cadence.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01 and the April 2026 The Daily Employment Insurance release.
↳ Fetched latest same-series values: April 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 544,440 persons = 544.44 thousand; monthly change = -0.5%; year-over-year change = +3.5%; The Daily states May 2026 EI data will be released 2026-07-23.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada The Daily Employment Insurance, March 2026.
↳ Fetched March 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 548,000 persons = 548.0 thousand; monthly change = +0.4%; year-over-year change = +8.7%; text says March increased by 2,300 after a February decline of 8,700 and remained below the November 2025 peak of 569,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada The Daily Employment Insurance, February 2026.
↳ Fetched February 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 542,110 persons = 542.11 thousand; monthly change = -1.6%; year-over-year change = +8.1%; text says February declined by 8,700 after a January decline of 17,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026, as a public leading labour-market indicator for EI inflows.
↳ Fetched May 2026 Canada employment = 21,122,000; employment monthly change = +0.4%; unemployment rate = 6.6%; unemployment rate monthly change = -0.3 percentage points; highlights say employment increased by 88,000 in May after a net decline of 112,000 over January-April 2026.

Reference class and base rate: for a two-month-ahead level forecast of a seasonally adjusted EI beneficiary count, the base rate is persistence from the latest available level with recent official monthly changes. Same-variant anchors are all Canada regular EI beneficiaries, seasonally adjusted, from the same Statistics Canada EI series, not gross claims, LFS unemployment, or unadjusted counts.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior starts at April 2026 = 544.44 thousand. Recent official EI changes used for dispersion are January -17.0 thousand, February -8.7 thousand, March +2.3 thousand, and April about -2.7 thousand from -0.5% of roughly 547.2 thousand; mean change = -6.5 thousand and sample sigma = 8.3 thousand. Base two-month trend prior is 544.4 - 2*6.5 = 531.4 thousand. I add +5.6 thousand for March-April stabilization and EI benefit duration lag, then subtract 2.0 thousand for the strong May LFS signal lowering expected inflows, for a net +3.6 thousand adjustment and point = 535.0 thousand. The short four-change volatility sample is narrow but same-variant and recent, so I use it as a base and widen for horizon. The one-month 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.3 = 10.6 thousand; because June is two unpublished EI months beyond April, I widen to about 16.0 thousand, within 1.5x the one-month half-width, so interval = 535.0 +/- 16.0 = [519.0, 551.0].

Upside risk: tariff-sensitive layoffs, administrative backlogs, or slower exits from regular benefits would land above the interval if the first-print June 2026 Table 14-10-0011-01 value exceeds 551 thousand. Downside risk: a broad job-finding improvement after the May LFS rebound would land below the interval if the first-print June 2026 value falls below 519 thousand. Outside the interval would be most plausible if the May LFS employment gain carries directly into EI exits or if a sudden sectoral shock reverses it before the June EI reference week.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

Key drivers

  • April regular EI level was 544.44 thousand after a 0.5% monthly decline
  • January and February EI declines were only partly reversed in March
  • May Labour Force Survey showed employment up 88,000 and unemployment down to 6.6%, pointing to lower near-term EI inflow pressure
  • EI benefits lag labour-market conditions, so the strong May LFS is a small downward adjustment against a larger stabilization and lag adjustment
  • Temporary EI measures and tariff-sensitive sectors keep upside risk from a sharper claims build

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01 and The Daily Employment Insurance release
Resolution date
August 20, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Statistics Canada publication for June 2026 regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries for Canada, seasonally adjusted, beneficiary detail total, sex total, age group total, from Table 14-10-0011-01 or the same first-print The Daily release. Convert persons to thousands by multiplying by 0.001. Use the first print only; ignore later revisions or table corrections unless the first-print rule itself is changed by Statistics Canada before release.

Forecast history

Select a version to read its estimate and analysis.

Forecast versions, estimates, and intervals
VersionDateEstimate80% interval
gpt-5.6-lunaJul 10, 2026548k537k–561k
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 2026543k529k–561k
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 2026550k528k–574k
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 2026541k523k–561k
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 2026539k523k–556k
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 2026542k530k–554k
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 2026542k530k–554k
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 2026537k520k–553k
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 2026540k523k–557k
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 2026536k522k–550k
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 2026539k522k–558k
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 2026541k534k–548k
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 2026538k533k–542k
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 2026545k534k–555k
gpt-5.5 · selectedJul 10, 2026535k519k–551k
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is mostly publishable, but the resolution date needs stronger official support and the prior/update narrative has a small directional inconsistency.

  • warning resolver: The draft sets resolutionDate to 2026-08-20 but only says this is within the registered window and appears partly inferred from the May release cadence.
  • warning update: The drivers say the strong May LFS is a downward adjustment for EI, but the compact calculation adjusts the two-month trend prior upward from 531.4 to 535.0.
  • info optional_suggestion: Note that the volatility estimate uses only four recent monthly changes and briefly justify why that sample is adequate for an 80% interval.
  • info optional_suggestion: Make the tail scenarios refer directly to first-print June 2026 Table 14-10-0011-01 values in thousands.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada regular EI beneficiaries, June 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01, Canada, regular Employment Insurance beneficiaries, monthly, seasonally adjusted, June 2026, first print, converted from persons to thousands. The ledger table description mentions The Daily release for May 2026, but the catalog slug, dataPointId, expected release window, and question period identify June 2026, so I keep the forecast tied to the June 2026 target.

Resolution timing: the Statistics Canada 2026 release schedule and the April EI release notice place the EI sequence on July 23, 2026 for May 2026 and August 20, 2026 for June 2026 within the registered August 19 to August 27 window. I therefore use 2026-08-20 as the first-print resolution date rather than inferring solely from cadence.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0011-01 and the April 2026 The Daily Employment Insurance release.
↳ Fetched latest same-series values: April 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 544,440 persons = 544.44 thousand; monthly change = -0.5%; year-over-year change = +3.5%; The Daily states May 2026 EI data will be released 2026-07-23.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada The Daily Employment Insurance, March 2026.
↳ Fetched March 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 548,000 persons = 548.0 thousand; monthly change = +0.4%; year-over-year change = +8.7%; text says March increased by 2,300 after a February decline of 8,700 and remained below the November 2025 peak of 569,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada The Daily Employment Insurance, February 2026.
↳ Fetched February 2026 regular EI beneficiaries Canada = 542,110 persons = 542.11 thousand; monthly change = -1.6%; year-over-year change = +8.1%; text says February declined by 8,700 after a January decline of 17,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026, as a public leading labour-market indicator for EI inflows.
↳ Fetched May 2026 Canada employment = 21,122,000; employment monthly change = +0.4%; unemployment rate = 6.6%; unemployment rate monthly change = -0.3 percentage points; highlights say employment increased by 88,000 in May after a net decline of 112,000 over January-April 2026.

Reference class and base rate: for a two-month-ahead level forecast of a seasonally adjusted EI beneficiary count, the base rate is persistence from the latest available level with recent official monthly changes. Same-variant anchors are all Canada regular EI beneficiaries, seasonally adjusted, from the same Statistics Canada EI series, not gross claims, LFS unemployment, or unadjusted counts.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior starts at April 2026 = 544.44 thousand. Recent official EI changes used for dispersion are January -17.0 thousand, February -8.7 thousand, March +2.3 thousand, and April about -2.7 thousand from -0.5% of roughly 547.2 thousand; mean change = -6.5 thousand and sample sigma = 8.3 thousand. Base two-month trend prior is 544.4 - 2*6.5 = 531.4 thousand. I add +5.6 thousand for March-April stabilization and EI benefit duration lag, then subtract 2.0 thousand for the strong May LFS signal lowering expected inflows, for a net +3.6 thousand adjustment and point = 535.0 thousand. The short four-change volatility sample is narrow but same-variant and recent, so I use it as a base and widen for horizon. The one-month 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.3 = 10.6 thousand; because June is two unpublished EI months beyond April, I widen to about 16.0 thousand, within 1.5x the one-month half-width, so interval = 535.0 +/- 16.0 = [519.0, 551.0].

Upside risk: tariff-sensitive layoffs, administrative backlogs, or slower exits from regular benefits would land above the interval if the first-print June 2026 Table 14-10-0011-01 value exceeds 551 thousand. Downside risk: a broad job-finding improvement after the May LFS rebound would land below the interval if the first-print June 2026 value falls below 519 thousand. Outside the interval would be most plausible if the May LFS employment gain carries directly into EI exits or if a sudden sectoral shock reverses it before the June EI reference week.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by naming the August 20, 2026 official release-calendar basis, accepted the update critique by separating stabilization, EI lag, and LFS components, and accepted the interval-sample note by flagging the four-change volatility base and horizon widening.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
535k[519k · 551k]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.june_2026.first_print

More government data forecasts