thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada monthly GDP growth, August 2026

What will be the first-print month-over-month percent change in Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01, vector v65201210, gross domestic product by industry for all industries, Canada, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, for August 2026?

Forecast

+0.2%
-0.2%–+0.6%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.8%+0.2%+1.2%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.2%–+0.6%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.2%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada Monthly GDP Growth, August 2026

The registered target is StatCan vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. The forecasted value is the first-print August 2026 month-over-month percent change computed from the July and August release-vintage levels. The local public ledger target confirms slug canada-monthly-gdp-growth-august-2026, unit percent_growth, dataPointId statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print, and resolutionDate 2026-10-30. The app specs endpoint returned a Next.js error page rather than JSON in this run, so app-side slug confirmation was not available.

▸ Reported tool use: statcan.schedulemodel report
curl -sS 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ssi/homepage/schedule-key_indicators-eng.json' | sed -n '19578,19586p'
↳ Official StatCan key-indicator schedule excerpt: date="2026-10-30 00:00:01", title="Gross domestic product by industry", description="August 2026".
▸ Reported tool use: statcan.wdsmodel report
POST https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods with [{"vectorId":65201210,"latestN":24}]
↳ Fetched official WDS vector v65201210 levels included 2026-01=2340022, 2026-02=2344507, 2026-03=2340869, 2026-04=2354483, 2026-05=2362482; the latest 24 levels ran from 2024-06=2294051 through 2026-05=2362482.
▸ Reported tool use: local.computemodel report
Compute percent_change_previous_period from fetched WDS levels
↳ Monthly percent changes from fetched WDS levels: 2026-01=-0.045%, 2026-02=0.192%, 2026-03=-0.155%, 2026-04=0.582%, 2026-05=0.340%; full 23-change distribution mean=0.128, sigma_values=0.258, p10=-0.178, p50=0.130, p90=0.520, min=-0.258, max=0.646.
▸ Reported tool use: statcan.dailymodel report
curl -sS 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260731/dq260731a-eng.htm' | rg -n -i 'May 2026|June 2026|advance|0\.[0-9]'
↳ The Daily, Gross domestic product by industry, May 2026: real GDP grew 0.3% in May; advance information indicates real GDP increased 0.2% in June 2026; the official June estimate is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: local.model_candidatesmodel report
Compute thesis_model_candidate_v1 baseline candidates from the 23 WDS-derived monthly changes
↳ Persistence candidate: point=0.340, p10=-0.18, p50=0.13, p90=0.52, 80%=[-0.18,0.52], 90%=[-0.24,0.61], interval_method=empirical_recent_changes, calibration_n=23, train_cutoff=2026-05, walk_forward_mae=0.340, walk_forward_rmse=0.399. Rolling-12-mean candidate: point=0.139, p10=-0.18, p50=0.13, p90=0.52, 80%=[-0.18,0.52], 90%=[-0.24,0.61], interval_method=empirical_recent_changes, calibration_n=23, train_cutoff=2026-05, walk_forward_mae=0.222, walk_forward_rmse=0.276.

Base rate / reference class: the 23 recent comparable month-over-month changes computed from the fetched WDS levels have mean 0.128%, median 0.130%, sigma 0.258%, p10 -0.178%, p90 0.520%, and range -0.258% to 0.646%. The rolling-12 mean benchmark point is 0.139%, and it outperformed last-change persistence in walk-forward MAE.

Point estimate: select the rolling-12 mean benchmark rather than raw last-print persistence because walk-forward MAE was lower, then update modestly toward the official June advance estimate. Computation: 0.75*0.139 + 0.25*0.200 = 0.154, which rounds to 0.2% at one-decimal published precision.

Prior/update/interval: prior=rolling-12 mean model candidate from 23 WDS-derived monthly changes, historical sample=2024-07 through 2026-05 computed changes, adjustment components=0.75 weight on the 0.139% rolling-12 mean and 0.25 weight on the official 0.200% June advance estimate, interval method=realized dispersion widened for a three-month-ahead August target with only May WDS level history and June advance information. For the fetched monthly growth values, sigma = 0.258; 1.28*sigma = 0.330. Widen to 0.4 percentage point half-width for horizon uncertainty: point 0.2 minus/plus 0.4 gives implied bounds [-0.2, 0.6]. This would have covered 9 of the last 10 fetched monthly growth values after rounding.

Downside risk / upside risk: the outcome would land below the interval if July-August activity reverses sharply after the May/June gains, especially through resource, manufacturing, or trade-sensitive sectors. It would land above the interval if the May resource-sector strength, construction growth, public-sector activity, and June wholesale/retail/finance gains persist into a broad August acceleration outside the recent reference class.

Review disposition: accepted the cleanup to make the point-update arithmetic explicit: the weighted estimate is 0.154%, which rounds to 0.2% at one decimal. Also accepted the suggestion to name Table 36-10-0434-01 and vector v65201210 directly in resolutionSource; no reviewer critique required changing the forecast values or interval.

Key drivers

  • rolling-12 mean benchmark beats persistence
  • May first-print momentum was positive
  • June advance estimate showed continued growth
  • three-month-ahead target adds interval width

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01, vector v65201210
Resolution date
October 30, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for August 2026 using vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, Canada, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Compute the month-over-month percent change from the July 2026 and August 2026 levels at that release vintage; retain the computed value without substituting later revisions. Round to one decimal percentage point.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable on the core target contract, with only minor cleanup needed for point-update clarity.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that 0.154 rounds to 0.2 at one decimal, or quantify any additional momentum adjustment separately so the update arithmetic reads cleanly.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the exact table/vector in resolutionSource, not only the generic Statistics Canada product name, although the URL and rule already identify it.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the cleanup to make the point-update arithmetic explicit: the weighted estimate is 0.154%, which rounds to 0.2% at one decimal. Also accepted the suggestion to name Table 36-10-0434-01 and vector v65201210 directly in resolutionSource; no reviewer critique required changing the forecast values or interval.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the cleanup to make the point-update arithmetic explicit: the weighted estimate is 0.154%, which rounds to 0.2% at one decimal. Also accepted the suggestion to name Table 36-10-0434-01 and vector v65201210 directly in resolutionSource; no reviewer critique required changing the forecast values or interval.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada Monthly GDP Growth, August 2026

The registered target is StatCan vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. The forecasted value is the first-print August 2026 month-over-month percent change computed from the July and August release-vintage levels. The local public ledger target confirms slug canada-monthly-gdp-growth-august-2026, unit percent_growth, dataPointId statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print, and resolutionDate 2026-10-30. The app specs endpoint returned a Next.js error page rather than JSON in this run, so app-side slug confirmation was not available.

▸ Reported tool use: statcan.schedulemodel report
curl -sS 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ssi/homepage/schedule-key_indicators-eng.json' | sed -n '19578,19586p'
↳ Official StatCan key-indicator schedule excerpt: date="2026-10-30 00:00:01", title="Gross domestic product by industry", description="August 2026".
▸ Reported tool use: statcan.wdsmodel report
POST https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods with [{"vectorId":65201210,"latestN":24}]
↳ Fetched official WDS vector v65201210 levels included 2026-01=2340022, 2026-02=2344507, 2026-03=2340869, 2026-04=2354483, 2026-05=2362482; the latest 24 levels ran from 2024-06=2294051 through 2026-05=2362482.
▸ Reported tool use: local.computemodel report
Compute percent_change_previous_period from fetched WDS levels
↳ Monthly percent changes from fetched WDS levels: 2026-01=-0.045%, 2026-02=0.192%, 2026-03=-0.155%, 2026-04=0.582%, 2026-05=0.340%; full 23-change distribution mean=0.128, sigma_values=0.258, p10=-0.178, p50=0.130, p90=0.520, min=-0.258, max=0.646.
▸ Reported tool use: statcan.dailymodel report
curl -sS 'https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260731/dq260731a-eng.htm' | rg -n -i 'May 2026|June 2026|advance|0\.[0-9]'
↳ The Daily, Gross domestic product by industry, May 2026: real GDP grew 0.3% in May; advance information indicates real GDP increased 0.2% in June 2026; the official June estimate is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: local.model_candidatesmodel report
Compute thesis_model_candidate_v1 baseline candidates from the 23 WDS-derived monthly changes
↳ Persistence candidate: point=0.340, p10=-0.18, p50=0.13, p90=0.52, 80%=[-0.18,0.52], 90%=[-0.24,0.61], interval_method=empirical_recent_changes, calibration_n=23, train_cutoff=2026-05, walk_forward_mae=0.340, walk_forward_rmse=0.399. Rolling-12-mean candidate: point=0.139, p10=-0.18, p50=0.13, p90=0.52, 80%=[-0.18,0.52], 90%=[-0.24,0.61], interval_method=empirical_recent_changes, calibration_n=23, train_cutoff=2026-05, walk_forward_mae=0.222, walk_forward_rmse=0.276.

Base rate / reference class: the 23 recent comparable month-over-month changes computed from the fetched WDS levels have mean 0.128%, median 0.130%, sigma 0.258%, p10 -0.178%, p90 0.520%, and range -0.258% to 0.646%. The rolling-12 mean benchmark point is 0.139%, and it outperformed last-change persistence in walk-forward MAE.

Point estimate: select the rolling-12 mean benchmark rather than raw last-print persistence because walk-forward MAE was lower, then update modestly toward the official June advance estimate. Computation: 0.75*0.139 + 0.25*0.200 = 0.154, which rounds to 0.2% at one-decimal published precision.

Prior/update/interval: prior=rolling-12 mean model candidate from 23 WDS-derived monthly changes, historical sample=2024-07 through 2026-05 computed changes, adjustment components=0.75 weight on the 0.139% rolling-12 mean and 0.25 weight on the official 0.200% June advance estimate, interval method=realized dispersion widened for a three-month-ahead August target with only May WDS level history and June advance information. For the fetched monthly growth values, sigma = 0.258; 1.28*sigma = 0.330. Widen to 0.4 percentage point half-width for horizon uncertainty: point 0.2 minus/plus 0.4 gives implied bounds [-0.2, 0.6]. This would have covered 9 of the last 10 fetched monthly growth values after rounding.

Downside risk / upside risk: the outcome would land below the interval if July-August activity reverses sharply after the May/June gains, especially through resource, manufacturing, or trade-sensitive sectors. It would land above the interval if the May resource-sector strength, construction growth, public-sector activity, and June wholesale/retail/finance gains persist into a broad August acceleration outside the recent reference class.

Review disposition: accepted the cleanup to make the point-update arithmetic explicit: the weighted estimate is 0.154%, which rounds to 0.2% at one decimal. Also accepted the suggestion to name Table 36-10-0434-01 and vector v65201210 directly in resolutionSource; no reviewer critique required changing the forecast values or interval.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.2%[-0.2% · +0.6%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_08.first_print

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