thesisPrototype

Government data

Canada monthly GDP growth, July 2026

What will Statistics Canada first report for the July 2026 month-over-month percent change in real GDP by industry at basic prices, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates?

Overdue · was due Sep 29, 2026

The resolver routes this target's reference, but its last run printed no line naming this target.

NO_REPORT · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+0.1%
-0.3%–+0.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.8%+0.1%+1.0%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.3%–+0.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.1%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Canada real GDP by industry, July 2026 first print

The target is the July 2026 month-over-month change in Statistics Canada vector v65201210, Table 36-10-0434-01: all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. It resolves from the first release vintage, not a later revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's 2026–2027 official release calendar for GDP by industry.
↳ The official calendar lists September 29, 2026 as the release date for the July 2026 reference period; it also lists August 28 for June and October 30 for August.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's December 2025 GDP release table for the recent official reference class.
↳ Official all-industries monthly changes for July–December 2025 were 0.6%, -0.1%, 0.2%, -0.3%, 0.0%, and 0.2%, respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's March and April 2026 GDP by industry releases.
↳ The official monthly changes were February +0.2%, March -0.1%, and April +0.5%; the June 30 release also gave a preliminary May advance estimate of +0.1%.

The reference class is the ten official monthly observations from July 2025 through April 2026: 0.6, -0.1, 0.2, -0.3, 0.0, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, -0.1, and 0.5 percent. Their mean is 0.12%, providing the base rate before release-specific adjustments. The preliminary May advance estimate is contextual evidence and is not included in this historical sample or its variance.

Level and momentum effects are mildly positive: the April rebound was broad and the preliminary May signal was +0.1%. One-off effects from energy maintenance and labour disruptions can reverse quickly. Policy and trade uncertainty restrain manufacturing, while steady services activity supports growth.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate model; historical sample = the 10 July 2025–April 2026 monthly growth values. Their mean is 0.12%. Adjustments are -0.01 point for fading April energy/reopening strength, -0.02 for manufacturing and trade uncertainty, and +0.01 for services persistence, giving 0.10%. For this change series, dispersion is computed from the values themselves: sample variance = 0.696/9 = 0.0773, so sigma = 0.278%. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.278 = 0.356%, implying 0.10 ± 0.356 = [-0.256%, 0.456%], reported as [-0.26%, 0.46%].

Upside risk comes from a synchronized oil, mining, manufacturing, and services expansion; growth above 0.46% would land outside the interval. Downside risk comes from shutdowns, wildfire or maintenance disruptions, or a sharp trade-related manufacturing contraction; growth below -0.26% would land outside the interval.

Review disposition: Accepted both optional clarifications: the May +0.1% advance estimate is explicitly excluded from the variance sample, and the September 29 resolution date is tied directly to the official release calendar. No required fixes were identified.

Key drivers

  • recent monthly-growth base rate near 0.1%
  • services-sector persistence
  • volatile mining and oil production
  • manufacturing and trade uncertainty
  • one-off maintenance and labour disruptions

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01
Resolution date
September 29, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for July 2026 using vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Compute the month-over-month percent change from the June and July levels at that release vintage; retain the computed value without substituting later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable; it matches the target contract and gives a coherent prior, update, interval, tails, and first-print resolver.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that the May +0.1% figure is a preliminary advance estimate, not part of the 10-observation historical sample used for the variance.
  • info optional_suggestion: If available in the trace, keep the release-calendar citation tied directly to the September 29, 2026 resolution date.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted both optional clarifications: the May +0.1% advance estimate is explicitly excluded from the variance sample, and the September 29 resolution date is tied directly to the official release calendar. No required fixes were identified.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted both optional clarifications: the May +0.1% advance estimate is explicitly excluded from the variance sample, and the September 29 resolution date is tied directly to the official release calendar. No required fixes were identified.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Canada real GDP by industry, July 2026 first print

The target is the July 2026 month-over-month change in Statistics Canada vector v65201210, Table 36-10-0434-01: all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. It resolves from the first release vintage, not a later revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's 2026–2027 official release calendar for GDP by industry.
↳ The official calendar lists September 29, 2026 as the release date for the July 2026 reference period; it also lists August 28 for June and October 30 for August.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's December 2025 GDP release table for the recent official reference class.
↳ Official all-industries monthly changes for July–December 2025 were 0.6%, -0.1%, 0.2%, -0.3%, 0.0%, and 0.2%, respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect Statistics Canada's March and April 2026 GDP by industry releases.
↳ The official monthly changes were February +0.2%, March -0.1%, and April +0.5%; the June 30 release also gave a preliminary May advance estimate of +0.1%.

The reference class is the ten official monthly observations from July 2025 through April 2026: 0.6, -0.1, 0.2, -0.3, 0.0, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, -0.1, and 0.5 percent. Their mean is 0.12%, providing the base rate before release-specific adjustments. The preliminary May advance estimate is contextual evidence and is not included in this historical sample or its variance.

Level and momentum effects are mildly positive: the April rebound was broad and the preliminary May signal was +0.1%. One-off effects from energy maintenance and labour disruptions can reverse quickly. Policy and trade uncertainty restrain manufacturing, while steady services activity supports growth.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate model; historical sample = the 10 July 2025–April 2026 monthly growth values. Their mean is 0.12%. Adjustments are -0.01 point for fading April energy/reopening strength, -0.02 for manufacturing and trade uncertainty, and +0.01 for services persistence, giving 0.10%. For this change series, dispersion is computed from the values themselves: sample variance = 0.696/9 = 0.0773, so sigma = 0.278%. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.278 = 0.356%, implying 0.10 ± 0.356 = [-0.256%, 0.456%], reported as [-0.26%, 0.46%].

Upside risk comes from a synchronized oil, mining, manufacturing, and services expansion; growth above 0.46% would land outside the interval. Downside risk comes from shutdowns, wildfire or maintenance disruptions, or a sharp trade-related manufacturing contraction; growth below -0.26% would land outside the interval.

Review disposition: Accepted both optional clarifications: the May +0.1% advance estimate is explicitly excluded from the variance sample, and the September 29 resolution date is tied directly to the official release calendar. No required fixes were identified.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.1%[-0.3% · +0.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print

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