Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada monthly GDP growth, July 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report for the July 2026 month-over-month percent change in real GDP by industry at basic prices, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.3%+0.1%+0.5%
history:2025-07 MoM: +0.6%2025-08 MoM: -0.1%2025-09 MoM: +0.2%2025-10 MoM: -0.3%2025-11 MoM: +0.0%2025-12 MoM: +0.2%2026-01 MoM: +0.0%2026-02 MoM: +0.2%2026-03 MoM: -0.1%2026-04 MoM: +0.5%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-11T01:32:40Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- recent monthly-growth base rate near 0.1%
- services-sector persistence
- volatile mining and oil production
- manufacturing and trade uncertainty
- one-off maintenance and labour disruptions
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01
- expected
- September 29, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first Statistics Canada print for July 2026 using vector v65201210 in Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Compute the month-over-month percent change from the June and July levels at that release vintage; retain the computed value without substituting later revisions.
- Data point
- statcan.36-10-0434-01.all_industries.month_to_month_percent_change.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.