§Canada June 2026 Monthly GDP By Industry Forecast
Framing and exact resolver: target is Statistics Canada's first-print, seasonally adjusted real GDP by industry, all industries, month-to-month percent change for June 2026. The ledger binds resolution to Table 36-10-0434-01 and The Daily; StatCan also exposes a derived growth-rates view as Table 36-10-0434-02, but I keep the forecast tied to the ledger resolver.
Opened Statistics Canada 2026-2027 major economic releases PDF and read the Gross domestic product by industry schedule.↳ Fetched schedule shows Gross domestic product by industry release date July 31, 2026 for May 2026, August 28, 2026 for June 2026, September 29, 2026 for July 2026, and October 30, 2026 for August 2026.Opened Statistics Canada table pages for the target table and growth-rate view.↳ Fetched Table 36-10-0434-01, frequency Monthly, geography Canada, release date 2026-06-30; fetched related growth-rates Table 36-10-0434-02, frequency Monthly, release date 2026-06-30.Opened The Daily release for Gross domestic product by industry, April 2026.↳ Fetched April 2026 real GDP by industry monthly change +0.5%, after March -0.1%; goods-producing industries +1.2%, services-producing industries +0.3%, 14 of 20 industrial sectors grew, and advance information indicated May 2026 real GDP by industry +0.1%.Opened prior The Daily releases for March, February, January, and November 2025/2026 GDP by industry.↳ Fetched March 2026 -0.1% after February +0.2%; February 2026 +0.2%; January 2026 +0.1% following December +0.2%; November 2025 0.0% following October -0.3%.The base rate/reference class is the recent official and official-advance monthly percent-change sequence for the same variant: seasonally adjusted real GDP by industry at basic prices, all industries, monthly change. The average of October 2025 through May 2026 advance values [-0.3, 0.0, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.5, 0.1] is +0.0875%, so a near +0.1% prior is appropriate before inside-view adjustments.
Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the recent same-series reference class mean +0.0875% from Oct 2025-May 2026 advance, a short recent-month sample rather than a full-cycle volatility estimate; adjustment components are +0.02 for May advance persistence, -0.03 for partial unwind after April's oil/goods rebound, +0.02 for services/finance-real-estate support, and -0.01 for wholesale/agriculture/tariff-sensitive drag, leaving a rounded point of +0.1%. For a change/flow series, sigma is computed from the values themselves: sample sigma = 0.24 percentage point for [-0.3, 0.0, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.5, 0.1]. The 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.24 = 0.31 percentage point, rounded to 0.30 percentage point, so +0.1 +/- 0.3 percentage point of month-to-month growth gives [-0.2, +0.4].
Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from another mining/oil, construction, or manufacturing rebound plus steady services and would land above the interval if broad sector gains pushed June to +0.5% or stronger. Downside risk would come from renewed goods-sector weakness, wildfire or energy disruption, or a sharper tariff-sensitive trade slowdown and would land below the interval if June printed -0.3% or weaker. The outside the interval scenarios are plausible but not central given the May advance and recent base rate.
Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver clarification tying the target to Table 36-10-0434-01 despite the related growth-rate table, made the 80% interval unit explicit as percentage points of month-to-month growth, and clarified that the volatility estimate is from a short recent same-series sample rather than a full-cycle estimate.