§Canada October 2026 monthly GDP growth forecast
Resolver first: the target is Statistics Canada GDP by industry Table 36-10-0434-01, vector v65201210, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. I keep the ledger contract: dataPointId statcan.gdp_by_industry.monthly_growth.2026_10.first_print, unit percent_growth, first-print transform percent_change_previous_period.
fetch_source call-0021 and PDF fetch_source call-0002 for Statistics Canada major economic release schedule↳ The official schedule page points to the 2026-2027 release dates PDF; the schedule text read this run lists Gross domestic product by industry for October 2026 on December 23, 2026, with nearby GDP-by-industry releases including September 29, 2026 for July 2026 and October 30, 2026 for August 2026.fetch_source call-0001 and extract_json call-0004 for WDS vector v65201210, 2025-12 through 2026-07↳ Fetched levels were 2025-12=2340368, 2026-01=2340048, 2026-02=2343731, 2026-03=2340120, 2026-04=2355221, 2026-05=2363071, 2026-06=2371886, 2026-07=2371771, all with releaseTime 2026-09-29T08:30.fetch_source call-0003 for The Daily, Gross domestic product by industry, July 2026↳ The Daily printed July 2026 real GDP by industry monthly change at 0.0%; it reported construction +1.3%, utilities +1.7%, manufacturing -0.9%, mining and oil and gas -0.5%, retail -1.0%, wholesale -0.4%, and an August 2026 advance estimate of +0.2%.calculate calls call-0006 through call-0015 from official WDS levels↳ Transformed monthly growth values were January -0.013673, February 0.157390, March -0.154071, April 0.645309, May 0.333302, June 0.373032, July -0.004848; mean call-0014 was 0.190920 and sample stdev call-0013 was 0.276958, giving 1.28*sigma call-0015 = 0.354506.The cited 2026 history is the available official WDS vintage used for the prior, not a claim that each month is its original first print. Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanism effects: the level path is above late-2025 after strong April-June gains; momentum cooled because July was essentially flat even though August's advance estimate was +0.2. July one-offs included refinery downtime, mining disruptions, and retail/wholesale softness; those can partly mean-revert, but October is two prints beyond the observed month. The policy mechanism is mostly a small drag from trade uncertainty rather than a discrete policy-level change in the series.
Prior/update/interval: reference class/base rate is the January-July 2026 transformed official monthly growth sample from vector v65201210, mean = 0.190920. I update by +0.02 for the August +0.2 advance signal, -0.04 for the July flat/sector-offset cooling signal, and -0.02 for trade-policy uncertainty, so point = 0.190920 + 0.02 - 0.04 - 0.02 = 0.150920, rounded to 0.15. Interval method uses realized dispersion of the change series values themselves: sigma = 0.276958, so 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 0.354506. Applying that to 0.150920 gives [-0.203586, 0.505426], rounded to [-0.20, 0.51].
Counter-considerations: upside risk would be a broad October rebound in mining, retail, wholesale, and manufacturing plus continued construction strength, which could land above the interval if monthly growth exceeds about +0.51%. Downside risk is a renewed goods-sector contraction or sharper trade shock; that would land below the interval if October GDP falls more than about -0.20%. Outside the interval is plausible but not central because the recent seven-month sigma already includes one large April rebound and a March contraction.
Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by setting the resolution source to the canonical StatCan WDS getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods endpoint and clarifying that resolution follows the registered first-print percent_change_previous_period contract rather than an alternate September denominator vintage. Accepted the optional note that the prior history is the available WDS vintage used for forecasting.