§Forecast for Canada September 2026 monthly GDP by industry growth
Resolver: Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0434-01, all industries, chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, vector v65201210. The target is the September 2026 first print, computed as the percent change from the August level to the September level at the first release vintage. Statistics Canada's 2026 release dates and the registered source binding put this release on 2026-11-30.
Read Statistics Canada The Daily releases for January, February, and March 2026 GDP by industry.↳ Fetched first-print monthly changes from Table 36-10-0434-01 releases: January 2026 0.1%, February 2026 0.2%, March 2026 -0.1%; the March release also said first-quarter GDP by industry edged up 0.1%.Read Statistics Canada The Daily releases for April, May, and June 2026 GDP by industry.↳ Fetched first-print monthly changes from Table 36-10-0434-01 releases: April 2026 0.5%, May 2026 0.3%, June 2026 0.3%; the June release said 13 of 20 sectors grew and services-producing industries rose 0.4% while goods-producing industries edged down 0.1%.Read the latest Statistics Canada June 2026 release for advance and sector context, using the same GDP by industry variant.↳ Fetched advance information: real GDP was essentially unchanged in July 2026, after June 2026 official monthly growth of 0.3%; May 2026 had an advance estimate of 0.2% for June before the official June print came in at 0.3%; second-quarter 2026 GDP by industry rose 0.9%.Base rate/reference class: the six latest official first-print monthly changes available before this forecast are 0.1%, 0.2%, -0.1%, 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.3%, all from the same seasonally adjusted real GDP by industry variant. Their mean is 0.2167%, so the outside-view base rate is a low-positive monthly gain near 0.2%.
Level, momentum, one-off, and policy-mechanism effects: the level path through June was improving after March weakness; momentum is positive but likely fading because StatCan's July advance was essentially unchanged; one-off boosts from census-related public administration and deferred resource maintenance may not persist into September; policy and rate effects should lean mildly restrictive rather than recessionary.
Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior uses the six official first-print monthly growth values [0.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3], mean = 0.2167; no separate AR/model prior is used because the available same-series first-print pre-forecast sample is short. Adjustments are -0.05 for July advance stagnation, +0.02 for services/public-sector resilience, and -0.01 for one-off Q2 resource/public boosts fading, giving 0.1767, rounded to a 0.2 point forecast. For a change/flow series, compute dispersion from the values themselves: sample sigma = sqrt(sum((x - 0.2167)^2) / 5) = 0.204. The 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.204 = 0.261; centered on 0.1767 gives [-0.084, 0.438], rounded to one-decimal target precision and slightly padded to [-0.1, 0.5].
Counter-consideration: upside risk would come from a broad September rebound in manufacturing, wholesale, and resource extraction after a flat July; downside risk would come from renewed resource-sector outages, weaker housing-linked services, or tariff-sensitive manufacturing weakness. Treating the 80% interval as inclusive at the rounded endpoints, a monthly print above 0.5% or below -0.1% would land outside the interval.
Review disposition: accepted both optional reviewer suggestions by explicitly naming the six-month same-series first-print mean as the time-series prior with no separate AR/model prior, and by clarifying that outside-the-interval language treats the rounded endpoints as inclusive.