§July 2026 US housing starts SAAR forecast
Framing and exact resolver: the target is Census/HUD New Residential Construction Table 3, privately owned housing starts, total units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, for July 2026, first print. The ledger unit is millions, so HOUST thousands are multiplied by 0.001. ALFRED/FRED HOUST is used as the first-print retrieval/history adapter; Census/HUD remains the official release source.
Checked the Census Survey of Construction release schedule for the July 2026 New Residential Construction release.↳ The Census schedule lists July 2026 New Residential Construction at 8:30 a.m. on August 18, 2026; it also lists June 2026 on July 17, 2026 and May 2026 on June 16, 2026.Read the July 17, 2026 Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for June 2026 starts and related components.↳ June 2026 privately owned housing starts were 1,427,000 SAAR; revised May starts were 1,199,000; June single-family starts were 895,000; June starts in buildings with 5 units or more were 513,000; June permits were 1,367,000.Read the June 16, 2026 Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for the May first print and revised April comparison.↳ May 2026 privately owned housing starts were first printed at 1,177,000 SAAR; revised April starts were 1,392,000; May single-family starts were 882,000; May starts in buildings with 5 units or more were 284,000; May permits were 1,413,000.Checked ALFRED/FRED HOUST release/history pages and Census historical series context for recent first-print/reference values.↳ Recent HOUST first-print/reference values used for dispersion were January 2026 1.487 million, February 2026 1.346 million, March 2026 1.502 million, April 2026 1.465 million, May 2026 1.177 million, and June 2026 1.427 million SAAR.Base rate/reference class: the recent first-print level reference class averages about 1.401 million over January-June 2026, with values oscillating between 1.177 million and 1.502 million. That base rate says a July print near 1.35-1.45 million is more plausible than either a new collapse or a durable break above 1.55 million.
Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the latest official first print, 1.427 million, cross-checked against the six-month first-print mean of 1.401 million. Adjustment components: -0.04 million for likely giveback from June's volatile multifamily jump from 0.284 million in May to 0.513 million in June, -0.02 million because June permits at 1.367 million trail starts, and about +0.00 to +0.01 million because single-family starts were stable near 0.895 million. This gives a point near 1.37 million. Interval method uses successive first-print changes from Jan-Jun: -0.141, +0.156, -0.037, -0.288, +0.250 million; sigma = 0.218 million, so 1.28*sigma = 0.279 million. Rounded 80% bounds are 1.37 - 0.28 = 1.09 and 1.37 + 0.28 = 1.65 million.
Counter-considerations: upside risk is another multifamily-heavy month or faster conversion of permits to starts, which would land above the interval if total starts exceed 1.65 million. Downside risk is a reversal of June multifamily starts plus weaker single-family starts under high mortgage rates, which would land below the interval if total starts fall under 1.09 million.
Review disposition: accepted both optional reviewer suggestions by adding February 2026 to historicalContext and clarifying that ALFRED/FRED HOUST is the first-print retrieval/history adapter while Census/HUD is the official source; no required fixes were raised.