§Colorado July 2026 individual income tax net collections
Framing and exact resolver: the target is CDOR's General Fund Collections Report line for net individual income tax collections for July 2026, cash basis, first print. The variant is net receipts as posted in the Colorado state accounting system, not gross income tax liability, not annual SOI tax-year data, and not a revised later vintage.
Resolution timing: the canonical ledger gives resolutionDate 2026-08-31 for the first post-July accounting print. I found no concrete ledger error; the official CDOR page is the stable July 2019-to-date monthly publication surface, and the Colorado tax due-date guide supports using the post-month accounting cycle rather than tax-year cadence.
Opened the Colorado Department of Revenue General Fund Collections Reports page for the official resolver and report definition.↳ Fetched official CDOR context: General Fund Collections Reports show net receipts from taxes collected and administered monthly by CDOR; all figures are cash basis; the current file span is July 2019 to date, a 7-year monthly history window as of the July 2026 target.Opened the Colorado Legislative Council Staff June 2026 Economic and Revenue Forecast page and report for recent official annual net individual income tax levels.↳ Fetched LCS values in millions of dollars: FY2024-25 net individual income tax actual 9997.9, FY2025-26 estimate 11153.0, and FY2026-27 forecast 12537.6.Read the LCS General Fund Revenue section for current cash-basis momentum entering the July 2026 collection month.↳ Fetched LCS through-May 2026 momentum: individual income tax revenue expected to increase 11.6 percent to 11.15 billion dollars before transfers; withholding was up 4.9 percent, estimated payments up 20.3 percent, cash with returns up 15.0 percent, and refunds up 15.2 percent.Checked Colorado's official tax due-date guide for July cash-flow mechanics and release-date plausibility.↳ Fetched official due-date numbers: individual estimated income tax payments are due April 15, June 15, September 15, and January 15; wage withholding monthly payments are due on the 15th day of the following month and quarterly withholding on the last day of the month following the quarter.Checked a public Tax Foundation article citing Colorado Department of Revenue monthly individual income tax receipts around the COVID filing-deadline shift as July-specific stress evidence.↳ Fetched cited Colorado monthly values: April 2019 individual income tax revenue 1.82 billion dollars, April 2020 0.819 billion dollars, July 2019 0.614 billion dollars, and July 2020 1.76 billion dollars.Base rate/reference class: the clean official base rate is annual-run-rate persistence from LCS. Dividing 9997.9, 11153.0, and 12537.6 million dollars by 12 gives 0.833, 0.929, and 1.045 billion monthly-average equivalents. July-specific history is volatile: 0.614 billion in ordinary July 2019 versus 1.760 billion in deadline-shift July 2020.
Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanisms: level starts at the FY2026-27 monthly run rate of 1.045 billion. Momentum is positive from strong final payments, estimated payments, and withholding. July should still run below the annual monthly average because it is after the April filing peak and June estimated-payment date but before the September estimated-payment date; the cited ordinary July 2019 value of 0.614 billion was far below April 2019's 1.82 billion, while July 2020 is treated as a deadline-shift tail guide rather than normal seasonality. Policy and accounting effects are two-sided, while elevated refunds reduce net collections.
Prior/update/interval: prior model is annual-run-rate persistence from the official June 2026 LCS net individual income tax forecast, with historical sample values 0.833, 0.929, 1.045, 0.614, and 1.760 billion. Adjustment components are 12.5376 / 12 = 1.0448 billion, a judgmental -0.050 billion July timing discount because July lacks the April return-payment peak and the September estimated-payment due date, a judgmental -0.015 billion refund-drag adjustment because refunds were up 15.2 percent through May, and 0.000 net policy adjustment because OBBBA addbacks and credit/refund channels point in opposite directions, giving 0.9798 billion. For this flow series, I size the interval from the cited values themselves while recognizing the sample mixes annual run-rate anchors with July stress points: sigma = 0.434 billion; 1.28*sigma = 0.556 billion; final implied bounds around 0.980 +/- 0.556 are 0.42 to 1.54 billion after rounding.
Point calculation: 12.5376 / 12 = 1.0448; 1.0448 - 0.050 - 0.015 = 0.9798, rounded to 0.980 billion. Interval calculation from sample values 0.833, 0.929, 1.045, 0.614, and 1.760 has sample sigma = 0.434; 1.28*sigma = 0.556. Using point 0.980 and rounded half-width 0.56 gives ciLow 0.980 - 0.56 = 0.420 and ciHigh 0.980 + 0.56 = 1.540.
Counter-consideration: upside risk would land above the interval if late final payments or unusually large pass-through income payments spill into July after the strong spring filing season. Downside risk would land below the interval if refunds remain unusually elevated, high-income payments were mostly pulled forward, or withholding weakens sharply. Outside the interval high would likely require a deadline or accounting-timing shock similar in direction to July 2020; outside the interval low would likely require a large refund-processing batch or a reporting break in the first print.
Review disposition: accepted the critique to clarify that the interval sample is mixed and partly judgmental, to label the July seasonality and refund-drag adjustments as judgmental, and to explain why July should be below the annual monthly average despite positive annual momentum; rejected changing the resolver, slug, date, or point forecast because no concrete ledger error was identified.