thesisPrototype

Government data

Colorado SSI Recipients 65+ July 2026

SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 4, Colorado recipients age 65 or older, July 2026, all federally administered payments, first print

Forecast

23,060
23,024–23,096
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%22,97023,06023,150Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (23,024–23,096). Dashed line: point estimate (23,060).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
23,094
forecast
23,060 with 80% interval [23,024, 23,096]
error
+34 · absolute 34
cdf score
CRPS 20.6 · PIT 0.88
source
ssa_ssi_monthly SSI Monthly Statistics, Table 4 (All Federally Administered Payments), Colorado row, Age 65 or older

First print for 2026-07 captured from the edition's own page https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_monthly/2026-07/table04.html through a declared headless-browser transport (ssa.gov refuses non-browser clients); the page title and table caption name the edition, the parsed row and column are label-anchored, the table's own row/column sums reproduce the published totals, and the prior edition's anchor value was re-read from its page at capture time; no Wayback Machine capture of the page exists to corroborate.

Analysis

§Colorado SSI aged 65+ recipients, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is the SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 4 Colorado row, Age 65 or older column, All Federally Administered Payments. The variant is a whole-person count from the Supplemental Security Record, 100 percent data, not payments, federal-only recipients, state-supplement-only recipients, or a smoothed series. The July 2026 table URL may remain unresolved until first publication, but the resolver is the first posted SSA Table 4 value at that address.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics June 2026 Table 4 for the latest official Colorado age-row anchor.
↳ Fetched June 2026 Colorado total 66,417; aged eligibility category 12,127; blind and disabled 54,290; under 18 6,657; age 18-64 36,697; age 65 or older 23,063.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics May 2026 Table 4 for one-month-back official history.
↳ Fetched May 2026 Colorado total 66,403; aged eligibility category 12,120; blind and disabled 54,283; under 18 6,649; age 18-64 36,718; age 65 or older 23,036.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics April and March 2026 Table 4 for recent reference-class history.
↳ Fetched April 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,062 and March 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,039.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics February 2026, January 2026, and December 2025 Table 4 for a longer local official history window.
↳ Fetched February 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,060; January 2026 23,102; December 2025 23,101.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked SSA Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis Publishing Schedule for the release-calendar basis.
↳ Fetched official schedule page listing SSI Monthly Statistics with Monthly frequency and publication release dates; canonical target contract supplies the July 2026 first-print resolution date 2026-08-31 for this monthly release target.

Reference class and base rate: the official Colorado 65+ recipient count over December 2025 through June 2026 is 23,101, 23,102, 23,060, 23,039, 23,062, 23,036, and 23,063. The level base rate is a stable 23.0k count series, with no month in this window outside 23,036 to 23,102.

Level, momentum, one-off, and mechanism split: the level anchor is the latest 23,063; six-month momentum is mildly negative at -38 from December to June, while the latest move was +27 from May to June. I apply a small -3 net adjustment because the broader drift offsets the latest rebound. I found no July-specific policy mechanism in the official series definition that would materially change only Colorado aged 65+ recipients.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest official June 2026 value 23,063 using the December 2025-June 2026 official SSA Table 4 reference class; adjustment components are level 23,063, momentum -6 from the mean monthly change, and recent stabilization +3, giving point 23,060. Successive changes are +1, -42, -21, +23, -26, +27; sigma = 27.9 recipients from the sample standard deviation of those changes; 80% half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*27.9 = 35.7, rounded to 36, so bounds are 23,060-36 = 23,024 and 23,060+36 = 23,096.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a continued rebound in aged and disabled recipients after the spring decline, which would land above the interval if Colorado age 65+ exceeds 23,096. Downside risk is a renewed administrative or eligibility-driven drop like January-February, which would land below the interval if the first print is under 23,024. Outside the interval would require a move larger than the recent realized month-to-month dispersion.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by noting that the July 2026 URL may be unresolved until first publication while preserving the first-posted SSA Table 4 rule; no required fixes were identified.

Key drivers

  • Colorado 65+ SSI count has been nearly flat around 23.0k since December 2025
  • Recent monthly changes are small relative to the level
  • No identified July-specific policy mechanism that should shift Colorado aged recipients sharply
  • All anchors use SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 4, all federally administered payments, not federal-only or payment-dollar tables

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics, July 2026, Table 4
Resolved
August 23, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first posted July 2026 SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 4 value for Colorado in the Age 65 or older column under All Federally Administered Payments. Use the whole-count first print as published by SSA from the Supplemental Security Record, 100 percent data; do not revise for later table changes.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publication-ready against the rubric, with coherent resolver details, prior/update/interval math, tails, and JSON fields tied to the ledger target.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider explicitly saying the July 2026 URL may be unresolved until first publication, while the resolver remains the first posted SSA Table 4 value.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by noting that the July 2026 URL may be unresolved until first publication while preserving the first-posted SSA Table 4 rule; no required fixes were identified.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Colorado SSI aged 65+ recipients, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is the SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 4 Colorado row, Age 65 or older column, All Federally Administered Payments. The variant is a whole-person count from the Supplemental Security Record, 100 percent data, not payments, federal-only recipients, state-supplement-only recipients, or a smoothed series. The July 2026 table URL may remain unresolved until first publication, but the resolver is the first posted SSA Table 4 value at that address.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics June 2026 Table 4 for the latest official Colorado age-row anchor.
↳ Fetched June 2026 Colorado total 66,417; aged eligibility category 12,127; blind and disabled 54,290; under 18 6,657; age 18-64 36,697; age 65 or older 23,063.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics May 2026 Table 4 for one-month-back official history.
↳ Fetched May 2026 Colorado total 66,403; aged eligibility category 12,120; blind and disabled 54,283; under 18 6,649; age 18-64 36,718; age 65 or older 23,036.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics April and March 2026 Table 4 for recent reference-class history.
↳ Fetched April 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,062 and March 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,039.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened SSA SSI Monthly Statistics February 2026, January 2026, and December 2025 Table 4 for a longer local official history window.
↳ Fetched February 2026 Colorado age 65 or older 23,060; January 2026 23,102; December 2025 23,101.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked SSA Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis Publishing Schedule for the release-calendar basis.
↳ Fetched official schedule page listing SSI Monthly Statistics with Monthly frequency and publication release dates; canonical target contract supplies the July 2026 first-print resolution date 2026-08-31 for this monthly release target.

Reference class and base rate: the official Colorado 65+ recipient count over December 2025 through June 2026 is 23,101, 23,102, 23,060, 23,039, 23,062, 23,036, and 23,063. The level base rate is a stable 23.0k count series, with no month in this window outside 23,036 to 23,102.

Level, momentum, one-off, and mechanism split: the level anchor is the latest 23,063; six-month momentum is mildly negative at -38 from December to June, while the latest move was +27 from May to June. I apply a small -3 net adjustment because the broader drift offsets the latest rebound. I found no July-specific policy mechanism in the official series definition that would materially change only Colorado aged 65+ recipients.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest official June 2026 value 23,063 using the December 2025-June 2026 official SSA Table 4 reference class; adjustment components are level 23,063, momentum -6 from the mean monthly change, and recent stabilization +3, giving point 23,060. Successive changes are +1, -42, -21, +23, -26, +27; sigma = 27.9 recipients from the sample standard deviation of those changes; 80% half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*27.9 = 35.7, rounded to 36, so bounds are 23,060-36 = 23,024 and 23,060+36 = 23,096.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a continued rebound in aged and disabled recipients after the spring decline, which would land above the interval if Colorado age 65+ exceeds 23,096. Downside risk is a renewed administrative or eligibility-driven drop like January-February, which would land below the interval if the first print is under 23,024. Outside the interval would require a move larger than the recent realized month-to-month dispersion.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by noting that the July 2026 URL may be unresolved until first publication while preserving the first-posted SSA Table 4 rule; no required fixes were identified.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
23,060[23,024 · 23,096]
Target metadata

Data point: ssa.ssi.recipients.colorado.aged_65_plus.2026-07.first_print

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