Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Continued Claims, Jul 11 2026
What will the U.S. Department of Labor first report for seasonally adjusted continued claims, week ending 2026-07-11, in the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release?
current forecast · 80% CI1.8M
1.8M1.8M1.9M
history:2026-06-27 continued claims SA latest: 1.8M2026-06-20 continued claims SA prior revised: 1.8M2026-06-13 continued claims SA prior rounded: 1.8M2026-06-06 continued claims SA prior rounded: 1.8M2026-05-30 continued claims SA prior rounded: 1.8M2026-05-23 continued claims SA prior revised: 1.8M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T03:44:05Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 1.8M
- forecast
- 1.8M with 80% CI [1.8M, 1.9M]
- error
- -0M · absolute 0M
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.012 · PIT 0.31
- source
- dol_eta Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (advance)
DOL ETA UI Weekly Claims news release, advance seasonally adjusted figure for the week ending 2026-07-11, read from FRED CCSA (advance vintage) as the cell's resolver names.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 10, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print
Key drivers
- SA continued claims have been clustered near 1.80 to 1.82 million
- latest initial claims for week ending 2026-07-04 were 215000, not signaling a layoff break
- June payroll growth slowed to 57000, supporting mild persistence in benefit duration
- recent weekly continued-claims changes imply about 0.022 million two-week uncertainty before a first-print/seasonal-factor widening
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release
- resolved
- July 25, 2026
- actual
- 1.8M
- rule
- Resolve to the first published seasonally adjusted continued claims, also labeled insured unemployment, for the week ending July 11, 2026, in the Department of Labor ETA Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release scheduled for July 23, 2026. Convert the reported count to millions by multiplying by 1e-6. Use the first official DOL print only; later revisions or ALFRED/FRED vintage updates after the first release do not change resolution, and DOL controls if any mirror differs.
- Data point
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-11.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.