Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Continued Claims, July 18 Week
What will the first-print U.S. seasonally adjusted continued claims level be for the week ending July 18, 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI1.8M
1.8M1.8M1.9M
history:week ending 2026-06-27 first print: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-20 first print: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-13 first print: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-06 first print: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-05-30 first print: 1.8M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-11T00:27:39Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent continued-claims level near 1.81 million
- Mild positive five-week momentum
- Initial claims near 215,000
- Holiday-period seasonal-adjustment uncertainty
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release, preserved through the ALFRED CCSA advance vintage
- expected
- July 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the advance first-print seasonally adjusted insured unemployment level for the week ending July 18, 2026, published in the U.S. Department of Labor release scheduled for July 30, 2026 and preserved as the ALFRED CCSA advance vintage; convert persons to millions and round to 0.001 million. Ignore all subsequent revisions.
- Data point
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-07-18.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.