thesisPrototype

Government data

US computer and mathematical employment, August 2026

What will BLS first report for August 2026 employed people age 16 and over in computer and mathematical occupations, not seasonally adjusted, in millions, in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19?

Overdue · was due Sep 4, 2026

The resolver deferred this target to a later run, for a reason this page does not yet classify.

resolver: A-19 CAPTURE READ FAILED (deferring). https //web.archive.org/web/20260904170006/https //www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm could not be read (URLError urlopen error timed out ), and an unread earlier capture cannot be skipped

UNCLASSIFIED · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

6.9M
6.8M–7.1M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%6.5M6.9M7.3MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.8M–7.1M). Dashed line: point estimate (6.9M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§August 2026 computer and mathematical employment forecast

The resolver is the first August 2026 BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19 print for employed people age 16 and over in 'Computer and mathematical occupations,' not seasonally adjusted. The registered ledger target reports the table as A-19 at cpseea19.htm, with values in thousands transformed to millions by multiplying by 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: browser.openmodel report
Open https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ BLS current CPS Table A-19, Last Modified Date August 07, 2026, reports Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: July 2025 = 6,656 thousand and July 2026 = 6,924 thousand, equal to 6.656 million and 6.924 million.
▸ Reported tool use: wayback.fetchmodel report
Fetch https://web.archive.org/web/20260502095151/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm and https://web.archive.org/web/20260516122806/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ The Wayback BLS cpseea19.htm snapshots report Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: Last Modified Date April 03, 2026 row values 6,866 and 6,574 thousand, so March 2026 = 6.574 million; Last Modified Date May 08, 2026 row values 6,643 and 6,834 thousand, so April 2026 = 6.834 million.
▸ Reported tool use: wayback.fetchmodel report
Fetch https://web.archive.org/web/20260613101041/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm and https://web.archive.org/web/20260710110509/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ The Wayback BLS cpseea19.htm snapshots report Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: Last Modified Date June 05, 2026 row values 6,512 and 6,903 thousand, so May 2026 = 6.903 million; Last Modified Date July 02, 2026 row values 6,602 and 6,950 thousand, so June 2026 = 6.950 million.
▸ Reported tool use: browser.openmodel report
Verify official release date at https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm
↳ The BLS 2026 schedule lists Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:30 AM for Employment Situation for August 2026; it also lists Friday, August 07, 2026 at 08:30 AM for Employment Situation for July 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: slug.checkmodel report
Check https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json for cps-computer-math-employment-august-2026
↳ The slug check fetched https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json and received an HTTP 404 HTML body; grep found 0 instances of cps-computer-math-employment-august-2026 and 0 instances of bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical. I keep the ledger-registered slug from the question spec.

The outside-view base rate/reference class is last-print persistence from the latest same-table first-print value: July 2026 = 6.924 million. The fetched trailing first-print sequence is March 2026 6.574, April 2026 6.834, May 2026 6.903, June 2026 6.950, and July 2026 6.924 million; recent gains slowed and the latest move was a small decline, so there is no direct current signal that clears the update test for moving materially away from persistence.

Model candidates under thesis_model_candidate_v1: persistence candidate point = 6.924, p10 = 6.768, p50 = 6.924, p90 = 7.080, 80% interval = [6.768, 7.080], 90% interval = [6.723, 7.125], intervalMethod = first-print month-to-month residual sigma with 1.28*sigma and 1.645*sigma, calibration_n = 4 changes, trainCutoff = 2026-07, walkForwardScore = not estimated because only five exact comparable first-print observations were fetched. A mean-change candidate would give point = 7.012, but the positive mean change comes from a short, noisy subgroup sequence and lacks a direct August signal, so I select persistence.

Prior/update/interval: persistence model prior = 6.924 million; historical sample = 6.574, 6.834, 6.903, 6.950, and 6.924 million. Successive changes are +0.260, +0.069, +0.047, and -0.026 million, giving sample sigma = 0.122 million from only four month-to-month changes, so the interval is mechanically derived but sample-thin. Adjustment components are +0.000 momentum, +0.000 one-off, and +0.000 policy because no release-specific August evidence justifies moving more than one rounding unit away from persistence, yielding point = 6.924 million. The 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.122 = 0.156 million, implying 6.924-0.156 = 6.768 and 6.924+0.156 = 7.080, so the final 80% interval is [6.768, 7.080] million.

Upside risk: a strong August CPS occupation sample, renewed tech/data hiring, or a rebound from the July dip would land above the interval at more than 7.080 million. Downside risk: adverse CPS rotation/sample noise, weaker professional-services labor demand, or occupation reclassification noise would land below the interval at less than 6.768 million and outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the clarity improvements distinguishing the September 4, 2026 official BLS calendar date from the registered September 3-11 expectedReleaseWindow, and noting that sigma rests on only four month-to-month changes. Kept the concise slug-check trace because the analyst contract requires checking specs.json and it explains why the ledger slug remains in use.

Key drivers

  • July 2026 level persistence
  • recent first-print gains slowing
  • not seasonally adjusted CPS subgroup volatility
  • no direct August signal

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS Table A-19
Resolution date
September 4, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value published by BLS for August 2026 in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Computer and mathematical occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Use the first official print only, with no later revisions, same-day correction grace, or later correction exceptions. The official BLS release calendar schedules Employment Situation for August 2026 on September 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET; the registered expectedReleaseWindow remains September 3-11, 2026.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable on the core contract and forecast-method rubric, with only minor clarity improvements suggested.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the September 4, 2026 resolution date is from the official BLS release calendar, while the registered expectedReleaseWindow remains September 3-11, 2026.
  • info optional_suggestion: Note that the interval sigma is based on only four month-to-month changes, so the 80% interval is mechanically derived but sample-thin.
  • info optional_suggestion: The failed specs.json slug check is unnecessary context for the published reasoning and could be shortened or omitted.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the clarity improvements distinguishing the September 4, 2026 official BLS calendar date from the registered September 3-11 expectedReleaseWindow, and noting that sigma rests on only four month-to-month changes. Kept the concise slug-check trace because the analyst contract requires checking specs.json and it explains why the ledger slug remains in use.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the clarity improvements distinguishing the September 4, 2026 official BLS calendar date from the registered September 3-11 expectedReleaseWindow, and noting that sigma rests on only four month-to-month changes. Kept the concise slug-check trace because the analyst contract requires checking specs.json and it explains why the ledger slug remains in use.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the clarity improvements distinguishing the September 4, 2026 official BLS calendar date from the registered September 3-11 expectedReleaseWindow, and noting that sigma rests on only four month-to-month changes. Kept the concise slug-check trace because the analyst contract requires checking specs.json and it explains why the ledger slug remains in use.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§August 2026 computer and mathematical employment forecast

The resolver is the first August 2026 BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19 print for employed people age 16 and over in 'Computer and mathematical occupations,' not seasonally adjusted. The registered ledger target reports the table as A-19 at cpseea19.htm, with values in thousands transformed to millions by multiplying by 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: browser.openmodel report
Open https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ BLS current CPS Table A-19, Last Modified Date August 07, 2026, reports Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: July 2025 = 6,656 thousand and July 2026 = 6,924 thousand, equal to 6.656 million and 6.924 million.
▸ Reported tool use: wayback.fetchmodel report
Fetch https://web.archive.org/web/20260502095151/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm and https://web.archive.org/web/20260516122806/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ The Wayback BLS cpseea19.htm snapshots report Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: Last Modified Date April 03, 2026 row values 6,866 and 6,574 thousand, so March 2026 = 6.574 million; Last Modified Date May 08, 2026 row values 6,643 and 6,834 thousand, so April 2026 = 6.834 million.
▸ Reported tool use: wayback.fetchmodel report
Fetch https://web.archive.org/web/20260613101041/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm and https://web.archive.org/web/20260710110509/https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea19.htm
↳ The Wayback BLS cpseea19.htm snapshots report Computer and mathematical occupations Total 16 years and over: Last Modified Date June 05, 2026 row values 6,512 and 6,903 thousand, so May 2026 = 6.903 million; Last Modified Date July 02, 2026 row values 6,602 and 6,950 thousand, so June 2026 = 6.950 million.
▸ Reported tool use: browser.openmodel report
Verify official release date at https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm
↳ The BLS 2026 schedule lists Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:30 AM for Employment Situation for August 2026; it also lists Friday, August 07, 2026 at 08:30 AM for Employment Situation for July 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: slug.checkmodel report
Check https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json for cps-computer-math-employment-august-2026
↳ The slug check fetched https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json and received an HTTP 404 HTML body; grep found 0 instances of cps-computer-math-employment-august-2026 and 0 instances of bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical. I keep the ledger-registered slug from the question spec.

The outside-view base rate/reference class is last-print persistence from the latest same-table first-print value: July 2026 = 6.924 million. The fetched trailing first-print sequence is March 2026 6.574, April 2026 6.834, May 2026 6.903, June 2026 6.950, and July 2026 6.924 million; recent gains slowed and the latest move was a small decline, so there is no direct current signal that clears the update test for moving materially away from persistence.

Model candidates under thesis_model_candidate_v1: persistence candidate point = 6.924, p10 = 6.768, p50 = 6.924, p90 = 7.080, 80% interval = [6.768, 7.080], 90% interval = [6.723, 7.125], intervalMethod = first-print month-to-month residual sigma with 1.28*sigma and 1.645*sigma, calibration_n = 4 changes, trainCutoff = 2026-07, walkForwardScore = not estimated because only five exact comparable first-print observations were fetched. A mean-change candidate would give point = 7.012, but the positive mean change comes from a short, noisy subgroup sequence and lacks a direct August signal, so I select persistence.

Prior/update/interval: persistence model prior = 6.924 million; historical sample = 6.574, 6.834, 6.903, 6.950, and 6.924 million. Successive changes are +0.260, +0.069, +0.047, and -0.026 million, giving sample sigma = 0.122 million from only four month-to-month changes, so the interval is mechanically derived but sample-thin. Adjustment components are +0.000 momentum, +0.000 one-off, and +0.000 policy because no release-specific August evidence justifies moving more than one rounding unit away from persistence, yielding point = 6.924 million. The 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.122 = 0.156 million, implying 6.924-0.156 = 6.768 and 6.924+0.156 = 7.080, so the final 80% interval is [6.768, 7.080] million.

Upside risk: a strong August CPS occupation sample, renewed tech/data hiring, or a rebound from the July dip would land above the interval at more than 7.080 million. Downside risk: adverse CPS rotation/sample noise, weaker professional-services labor demand, or occupation reclassification noise would land below the interval at less than 6.768 million and outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the clarity improvements distinguishing the September 4, 2026 official BLS calendar date from the registered September 3-11 expectedReleaseWindow, and noting that sigma rests on only four month-to-month changes. Kept the concise slug-check trace because the analyst contract requires checking specs.json and it explains why the ledger slug remains in use.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
6.9M[6.8M · 7.1M]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.computer_mathematical.august_2026.first_print

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