thesisPrototype

Government data

US transportation and material-moving employment, August 2026

What will BLS first report for August 2026 employed people in transportation and material moving occupations, total age 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, converted from thousands to millions?

Overdue · was due Sep 10, 2026

The resolver read the official figure on its last run. That run's log does not show the figure recorded in the ledger.

RESOLVED_AWAITING_RECORD · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

12.3M
11.9M–12.7M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%11.2M12.3M13.3MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (11.9M–12.7M). Dashed line: point estimate (12.3M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§August 2026 CPS transportation and material-moving employment forecast

The resolver is the BLS CPS occupation table row 'Transportation and material moving occupations,' total age 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, first August 2026 print, reported in thousands and converted to millions. The ledger binds cpseea19/Table A-19; current BLS release navigation exposes the same occupation table as Table A-13, so I keep the registered source URL and target identity.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the current BLS Employment Situation release notice and registered target context.
↳ BLS says the July 2026 Employment Situation was released August 7, 2026 and that the Employment Situation for August 2026 is scheduled for Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET; the registered target context binds resolutionDate 2026-09-10.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS CPS occupation table first-print values for January-April 2026.
↳ Transportation and material moving occupations employment was 12,202 thousand in January 2026, 11,737 thousand in February 2026, 12,214 thousand in March 2026, and 12,127 thousand in April 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS CPS occupation table first-print values for May-July 2026.
↳ Transportation and material moving occupations employment was 12,120 thousand in May 2026, 12,010 thousand in June 2026, and 12,223 thousand in July 2026; July 2026 total employment in Table A-13 was 162,800 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent August seasonal reference values from BLS archived Employment Situation occupation tables.
↳ The July-to-August first-print change was 11,977 to 12,322 thousand in 2024, or +0.345 million, and 11,659 to 11,647 thousand in 2025, or -0.012 million; the two-year August seasonal average is +0.1665 million.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current labor-market context from the July 2026 Employment Situation release.
↳ BLS reported total nonfarm payroll employment changed -23,000 in July 2026, unemployment was 4.1 percent, and employment showed little change in transportation and warehousing.
▸ Reported tool use: model_candidatesmodel report
Generated thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched Jan-Jul 2026 first-print levels.
↳ Candidate persistence: point 12.223, p10 11.815, p50 12.223, p90 12.631, 80% interval [11.815, 12.631], 90% interval [11.698, 12.748], interval_method recent_change_normal_sigma_0.319, calibration_n 6, train_cutoff 2026-07, walk_forward_score unavailable. Candidate seasonal-shrunken persistence: point 12.265, p10 11.856, p50 12.265, p90 12.673, 80% interval [11.856, 12.673], 90% interval [11.739, 12.790], interval_method recent_change_normal_sigma_0.319, calibration_n 6, train_cutoff 2026-07, walk_forward_score unavailable.

Base rate/reference class: the strongest benchmark is July-level persistence because this is a noisy not-seasonally-adjusted CPS occupation level and no walk-forward evidence here beats persistence. Recent fetched levels run 12.202, 11.737, 12.214, 12.127, 12.120, 12.010, and 12.223 million, with a range of 11.737 to 12.223 million; the two observed July-to-August seasonal changes are mixed at +0.345 and -0.012 million.

Inside-view update: the August seasonal sample points up on average, but it is only two years and highly dispersed. July 2026 already rebounded +0.213 million from June, and the establishment-survey transportation and warehousing context was little changed, so I use only 25 percent of the +0.1665 million seasonal average rather than a full seasonal add.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = July 2026 first print 12.223 million; historical sample = fetched January-July 2026 first-print levels plus 2024-2025 July-to-August same-row reference class; adjustment components = +0.25*0.1665 = +0.041625 million August seasonal pull and 0.000 million for current payroll context, giving 12.223 + 0.041625 = 12.264625 million, rounded to point 12.26. Successive fetched 2026 changes are -0.465, +0.477, -0.087, -0.007, -0.110, and +0.213 million; sample sigma = 0.319 million. The 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.319 = 0.408 million, so 12.26 - 0.408 = 11.852 and 12.26 + 0.408 = 12.668, rounded to 11.85 to 12.67.

Upside risk: another August seasonal gain like 2024's +0.345 million, combined with sampling noise after July's rebound, would land above the interval. Downside risk: a reversal of July's CPS jump, weak household employment, or logistics-sector weakness would land below the interval; either tail would be outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the coherence critique by restating the unrounded seasonal adjustment as +0.041625 million, which keeps the 12.26 point estimate internally consistent. I retained the registered 2026-09-10 resolutionDate while explicitly noting the checked BLS September 4, 2026 scheduled release discrepancy, because the ledger target contract instructs this cell to stay tied to the registered target identity.

Key drivers

  • July 2026 first-print persistence at 12.223 million
  • mixed recent monthly CPS occupation volatility
  • small August seasonal pull from 2024-2025 history
  • July payroll release showed transportation and warehousing little changed
  • registered date differs from BLS release notice

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS Table A-19
Resolution date
September 10, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value published for August 2026 in BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Transportation and material moving occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Retain that first print despite later revisions, rounded to three decimals in millions. The registered ledger target binds resolutionDate 2026-09-10; the checked BLS July 2026 release notice schedules the August 2026 Employment Situation for September 4, 2026, so this date discrepancy is stated without changing the registered target identity.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is broadly publishable, with one coherence issue around rounding the stated 12.265 million calculation to 12.26 instead of 12.27.

  • warning coherence: The math step says 12.223 + 0.042 = 12.265 million, but the forecast rounds this to 12.26; conventional two-decimal rounding would give 12.27 unless the unrounded adjustment is lower than stated.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify briefly why the ledger's 2026-09-10 resolutionDate is retained despite the checked BLS scheduled release date of 2026-09-04.
  • info optional_suggestion: If available, name the exact BLS archived table URLs used for the 2024-2026 first-print values in the trace artifacts.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the coherence critique by restating the unrounded seasonal adjustment as +0.041625 million, which keeps the 12.26 point estimate internally consistent. I retained the registered 2026-09-10 resolutionDate while explicitly noting the checked BLS September 4, 2026 scheduled release discrepancy, because the ledger target contract instructs this cell to stay tied to the registered target identity.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the coherence critique by restating the unrounded seasonal adjustment as +0.041625 million, which keeps the 12.26 point estimate internally consistent. I retained the registered 2026-09-10 resolutionDate while explicitly noting the checked BLS September 4, 2026 scheduled release discrepancy, because the ledger target contract instructs this cell to stay tied to the registered target identity.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the coherence critique by restating the unrounded seasonal adjustment as +0.041625 million, which keeps the 12.26 point estimate internally consistent. I retained the registered 2026-09-10 resolutionDate while explicitly noting the checked BLS September 4, 2026 scheduled release discrepancy, because the ledger target contract instructs this cell to stay tied to the registered target identity.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§August 2026 CPS transportation and material-moving employment forecast

The resolver is the BLS CPS occupation table row 'Transportation and material moving occupations,' total age 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, first August 2026 print, reported in thousands and converted to millions. The ledger binds cpseea19/Table A-19; current BLS release navigation exposes the same occupation table as Table A-13, so I keep the registered source URL and target identity.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the current BLS Employment Situation release notice and registered target context.
↳ BLS says the July 2026 Employment Situation was released August 7, 2026 and that the Employment Situation for August 2026 is scheduled for Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET; the registered target context binds resolutionDate 2026-09-10.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS CPS occupation table first-print values for January-April 2026.
↳ Transportation and material moving occupations employment was 12,202 thousand in January 2026, 11,737 thousand in February 2026, 12,214 thousand in March 2026, and 12,127 thousand in April 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS CPS occupation table first-print values for May-July 2026.
↳ Transportation and material moving occupations employment was 12,120 thousand in May 2026, 12,010 thousand in June 2026, and 12,223 thousand in July 2026; July 2026 total employment in Table A-13 was 162,800 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent August seasonal reference values from BLS archived Employment Situation occupation tables.
↳ The July-to-August first-print change was 11,977 to 12,322 thousand in 2024, or +0.345 million, and 11,659 to 11,647 thousand in 2025, or -0.012 million; the two-year August seasonal average is +0.1665 million.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current labor-market context from the July 2026 Employment Situation release.
↳ BLS reported total nonfarm payroll employment changed -23,000 in July 2026, unemployment was 4.1 percent, and employment showed little change in transportation and warehousing.
▸ Reported tool use: model_candidatesmodel report
Generated thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched Jan-Jul 2026 first-print levels.
↳ Candidate persistence: point 12.223, p10 11.815, p50 12.223, p90 12.631, 80% interval [11.815, 12.631], 90% interval [11.698, 12.748], interval_method recent_change_normal_sigma_0.319, calibration_n 6, train_cutoff 2026-07, walk_forward_score unavailable. Candidate seasonal-shrunken persistence: point 12.265, p10 11.856, p50 12.265, p90 12.673, 80% interval [11.856, 12.673], 90% interval [11.739, 12.790], interval_method recent_change_normal_sigma_0.319, calibration_n 6, train_cutoff 2026-07, walk_forward_score unavailable.

Base rate/reference class: the strongest benchmark is July-level persistence because this is a noisy not-seasonally-adjusted CPS occupation level and no walk-forward evidence here beats persistence. Recent fetched levels run 12.202, 11.737, 12.214, 12.127, 12.120, 12.010, and 12.223 million, with a range of 11.737 to 12.223 million; the two observed July-to-August seasonal changes are mixed at +0.345 and -0.012 million.

Inside-view update: the August seasonal sample points up on average, but it is only two years and highly dispersed. July 2026 already rebounded +0.213 million from June, and the establishment-survey transportation and warehousing context was little changed, so I use only 25 percent of the +0.1665 million seasonal average rather than a full seasonal add.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = July 2026 first print 12.223 million; historical sample = fetched January-July 2026 first-print levels plus 2024-2025 July-to-August same-row reference class; adjustment components = +0.25*0.1665 = +0.041625 million August seasonal pull and 0.000 million for current payroll context, giving 12.223 + 0.041625 = 12.264625 million, rounded to point 12.26. Successive fetched 2026 changes are -0.465, +0.477, -0.087, -0.007, -0.110, and +0.213 million; sample sigma = 0.319 million. The 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.319 = 0.408 million, so 12.26 - 0.408 = 11.852 and 12.26 + 0.408 = 12.668, rounded to 11.85 to 12.67.

Upside risk: another August seasonal gain like 2024's +0.345 million, combined with sampling noise after July's rebound, would land above the interval. Downside risk: a reversal of July's CPS jump, weak household employment, or logistics-sector weakness would land below the interval; either tail would be outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the coherence critique by restating the unrounded seasonal adjustment as +0.041625 million, which keeps the 12.26 point estimate internally consistent. I retained the registered 2026-09-10 resolutionDate while explicitly noting the checked BLS September 4, 2026 scheduled release discrepancy, because the ledger target contract instructs this cell to stay tied to the registered target identity.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
12.3M[11.9M · 12.7M]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.august_2026.first_print

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