thesisPrototype

Government data

US transportation and material-moving employment, July 2026

What will BLS first report for July 2026 employment in transportation and material moving occupations, total age 16+, not seasonally adjusted, in CPS Table A-19?

Overdue · was due Aug 6, 2026

The resolver routes this target's reference, but its last run printed no line naming this target.

NO_REPORT · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

12M
11.8M–12.2M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%11.6M12M12.5MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (11.8M–12.2M). Dashed line: point estimate (12M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§July 2026 CPS transportation and material-moving employment forecast

The resolver is BLS CPS Table A-19, Transportation and material moving occupations, Total age 16+, not seasonally adjusted, first July 2026 print in thousands converted to millions. This is distinct from seasonally adjusted establishment-survey transportation and warehousing payrolls.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current BLS CPS Table A-19 and June 2026 Employment Situation archive.
↳ BLS reports 12,010 thousand transportation and material-moving workers in June 2026 versus 11,619 thousand in June 2025; total CPS employment was 162,722 thousand in June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read archived March and April 2026 Employment Situation occupation tables.
↳ The first-print transportation and material-moving employment values were 12,214 thousand in March 2026 and 12,127 thousand in April 2026; the corresponding prior-year values were 11,958 thousand and 12,059 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the archived May 2026 Employment Situation occupation table.
↳ The May 2026 first print was 12,120 thousand, compared with 11,742 thousand in May 2025; BLS also reported May transportation-and-warehousing payroll employment changed by +1,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Verify the July 2026 Employment Situation date on the official BLS release calendar and June release notice.
↳ Both official BLS sources schedule the July 2026 Employment Situation for August 7, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET; this is 1 day later than the registered 2026-08-06 resolutionDate.

The reference class and base rate are short-horizon forecasts of this noisy NSA CPS occupation level. March-June 2026 declined 12.214 to 12.127 to 12.120 to 12.010 million, while June remained 0.391 million above June 2025. Persistence therefore deserves more weight than extrapolating the latest decline. A separate July-specific seasonal prior was not established from the cited observations.

Prior/update/interval: The model is level persistence at June's 12.010 million. The historical sample comprises six month-to-month changes from the fetched 2025 and 2026 occupation sequences: +0.101, -0.317, -0.123, -0.087, -0.007, and -0.110 million. Their sample dispersion is sigma = 0.139 million. The recent downward momentum adjustment (-0.04) is offset by positive year-over-year level and mean reversion (+0.04), leaving 12.010 million. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.139 = 0.178 million, rounded to 0.18, implying 11.83 to 12.19 million.

A stronger-than-normal summer expansion in delivery, warehousing, or passenger transport is the upside risk and would land above the interval. Broad household-employment weakness, accelerated logistics layoffs, or an adverse CPS sampling swing is the downside risk and could land below the interval; either outcome would be outside the interval.

Review disposition: Accepted the resolver clarification while retaining the registered target date, clarified that dispersion uses month-to-month changes, and noted that the cited evidence does not establish a separate July-specific seasonal prior.

Key drivers

  • June-level persistence
  • recent NSA monthly declines
  • positive year-over-year level
  • CPS sampling volatility
  • weak transportation payroll momentum

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS Table A-19
Resolution date
August 6, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value published for July 2026 in BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Transportation and material moving occupations,' Total, 16 years and over, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Retain that first print despite later revisions. The registered target uses resolutionDate 2026-08-06, while official BLS sources schedule the July 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-08-07.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is broadly publication-ready, with one blocking resolver-date issue caused by a concrete ledger/calendar discrepancy.

  • blocking resolver: The draft correctly keeps the registered resolutionDate field at 2026-08-06, but the resolutionRule says the ledger discrepancy 'should be corrected,' which conflicts with the instruction to keep the forecast tied to the registered target contract.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the volatility sample is month-to-month changes from the cited 2025-2026 occupation sequence, not literally March-to-June endpoint changes.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the July-specific seasonal prior as ruled out or unavailable, since the current prior is June-level persistence plus recent month-to-month volatility.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: Accepted the resolver clarification while retaining the registered target date, clarified that dispersion uses month-to-month changes, and noted that the cited evidence does not establish a separate July-specific seasonal prior.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the resolver clarification while retaining the registered target date, clarified that dispersion uses month-to-month changes, and noted that the cited evidence does not establish a separate July-specific seasonal prior.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the resolver clarification while retaining the registered target date, clarified that dispersion uses month-to-month changes, and noted that the cited evidence does not establish a separate July-specific seasonal prior.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§July 2026 CPS transportation and material-moving employment forecast

The resolver is BLS CPS Table A-19, Transportation and material moving occupations, Total age 16+, not seasonally adjusted, first July 2026 print in thousands converted to millions. This is distinct from seasonally adjusted establishment-survey transportation and warehousing payrolls.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current BLS CPS Table A-19 and June 2026 Employment Situation archive.
↳ BLS reports 12,010 thousand transportation and material-moving workers in June 2026 versus 11,619 thousand in June 2025; total CPS employment was 162,722 thousand in June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read archived March and April 2026 Employment Situation occupation tables.
↳ The first-print transportation and material-moving employment values were 12,214 thousand in March 2026 and 12,127 thousand in April 2026; the corresponding prior-year values were 11,958 thousand and 12,059 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the archived May 2026 Employment Situation occupation table.
↳ The May 2026 first print was 12,120 thousand, compared with 11,742 thousand in May 2025; BLS also reported May transportation-and-warehousing payroll employment changed by +1,000.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Verify the July 2026 Employment Situation date on the official BLS release calendar and June release notice.
↳ Both official BLS sources schedule the July 2026 Employment Situation for August 7, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET; this is 1 day later than the registered 2026-08-06 resolutionDate.

The reference class and base rate are short-horizon forecasts of this noisy NSA CPS occupation level. March-June 2026 declined 12.214 to 12.127 to 12.120 to 12.010 million, while June remained 0.391 million above June 2025. Persistence therefore deserves more weight than extrapolating the latest decline. A separate July-specific seasonal prior was not established from the cited observations.

Prior/update/interval: The model is level persistence at June's 12.010 million. The historical sample comprises six month-to-month changes from the fetched 2025 and 2026 occupation sequences: +0.101, -0.317, -0.123, -0.087, -0.007, and -0.110 million. Their sample dispersion is sigma = 0.139 million. The recent downward momentum adjustment (-0.04) is offset by positive year-over-year level and mean reversion (+0.04), leaving 12.010 million. The normal 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.139 = 0.178 million, rounded to 0.18, implying 11.83 to 12.19 million.

A stronger-than-normal summer expansion in delivery, warehousing, or passenger transport is the upside risk and would land above the interval. Broad household-employment weakness, accelerated logistics layoffs, or an adverse CPS sampling swing is the downside risk and could land below the interval; either outcome would be outside the interval.

Review disposition: Accepted the resolver clarification while retaining the registered target date, clarified that dispersion uses month-to-month changes, and noted that the cited evidence does not establish a separate July-specific seasonal prior.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
12M[11.8M · 12.2M]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.transportation_material_moving.july_2026.first_print

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