thesisPrototype

Government data

Euro-area construction production, May 2026

What will Eurostat first report for the May 2026 euro-area production-in-construction index, calendar and seasonally adjusted, 2021=100, series sts_copr_m.M.I21.SCA.PRD.F.EA20?

Overdue · was due Jul 20, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+105.7
+104.4–+107.1
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗
103104106108November 2025April 2026Jul 2026+105.7
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%+102.5+105.7+109.2Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+104.4–+107.1). Dashed line: point estimate (+105.7).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Euro-area construction production index for May 2026

The target is Eurostat table sts_copr_m, exact series sts_copr_m.M.I21.SCA.PRD.F.EA20: total construction for EA20, calendar and seasonally adjusted, 2021=100. The resolver is the May 2026 first print, not a growth rate or later revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the monthly index table in Eurostat's 18 June 2026 Production in construction release.
↳ Euro-area SCA index values were 104.3 in November 2025, 104.6 in December, 103.6 in January 2026, 103.1 in February, 104.9 in March, and 105.5 in April; April 2026 was the latest available official observation.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read Eurostat's month-on-month total-construction reference class from the same official release.
↳ Euro-area monthly changes from November 2025 through April 2026 were -0.9%, +0.3%, -1.0%, -0.5%, +1.7%, and +0.6%, respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read Eurostat's April annual and sector detail to assess the composition of momentum.
↳ April 2026 total construction was 0.9% above April 2025; buildings fell 5.2% year over year, while civil engineering rose 4.4% and specialised construction rose 1.7%.

The outside-view base rate is short-run level persistence: the six official index levels fluctuate around 104-105, while the five successive level changes average +0.24 points. Level is therefore anchored at April's 105.5, with only a small positive continuation.

Current-release adjustments are approximately net zero beyond the persistence prior: recent momentum is positive, the March-April rebound may partly reverse as a one-off, weak building activity offsets stronger civil engineering and specialised work, and no specific policy mechanism warrants a further adjustment.

Eurostat's official release states that the next Production in construction release is 20 July 2026, matching the official Euro-indicators calendar and verifying the ledger resolution date rather than inferring it from monthly cadence.

Prior/update/interval: The model is a persistence-plus-mean-change prior using the six November-April official index observations. Successive changes are +0.3, -1.0, -0.5, +1.8, and +0.6 points; their mean is +0.24 and sample sigma = 1.08 points. Starting from 105.5 gives 105.5 + 0.24 = 105.74, rounded to 105.7. The empirical 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*1.08 = 1.38 points, implying 105.74 ± 1.38 = 104.36 to 107.12, rounded to 104.4-107.1.

Upside risk comes from another broad rebound like March, which would land above the interval. Downside risk comes from renewed building-sector weakness or reversal of the March-April surge; a monthly fall exceeding roughly 1.1 points would land below the interval. Either outcome would be outside the interval and falsify the central persistence view.

Review disposition: Accepted both optional wording improvements by clarifying that 0.24 is the mean of five successive level changes and identifying April 2026 as the latest available official observation; no required fixes were identified.

Key drivers

  • April 2026 latest official level of 105.5 index points
  • mean increase of 0.24 points across the five successive November-April level changes
  • March-April rebound after January-February weakness
  • weak buildings but stronger civil engineering and specialised construction

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Eurostat Production in construction release and sts_copr_m data table
Resolution date
July 20, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value Eurostat publishes on 20 July 2026 for May 2026 in sts_copr_m, series freq=M, unit=I21, s_adj=SCA, indic_bt=PRD, nace_r2=F, geo=EA20. Use the calendar-and-seasonally-adjusted production-in-construction index, 2021=100, as printed to one decimal. Do not substitute monthly growth, calendar-adjusted data, EU data, or a later revision. The ledger unit is index_points, although that value is absent from the prompt's enumerated unit examples.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft satisfies the review rubric and is publication-ready, with only minor wording cleanup suggested.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify the driver phrase "six-month mean monthly change" as "mean of the five successive Nov-Apr level changes" to avoid ambiguity.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the April 2026 release as the latest available official observation in the reasoning, since the May first print is still pending.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted both optional wording improvements by clarifying that 0.24 is the mean of five successive level changes and identifying April 2026 as the latest available official observation; no required fixes were identified.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted both optional wording improvements by clarifying that 0.24 is the mean of five successive level changes and identifying April 2026 as the latest available official observation; no required fixes were identified.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Euro-area construction production index for May 2026

The target is Eurostat table sts_copr_m, exact series sts_copr_m.M.I21.SCA.PRD.F.EA20: total construction for EA20, calendar and seasonally adjusted, 2021=100. The resolver is the May 2026 first print, not a growth rate or later revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the monthly index table in Eurostat's 18 June 2026 Production in construction release.
↳ Euro-area SCA index values were 104.3 in November 2025, 104.6 in December, 103.6 in January 2026, 103.1 in February, 104.9 in March, and 105.5 in April; April 2026 was the latest available official observation.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read Eurostat's month-on-month total-construction reference class from the same official release.
↳ Euro-area monthly changes from November 2025 through April 2026 were -0.9%, +0.3%, -1.0%, -0.5%, +1.7%, and +0.6%, respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read Eurostat's April annual and sector detail to assess the composition of momentum.
↳ April 2026 total construction was 0.9% above April 2025; buildings fell 5.2% year over year, while civil engineering rose 4.4% and specialised construction rose 1.7%.

The outside-view base rate is short-run level persistence: the six official index levels fluctuate around 104-105, while the five successive level changes average +0.24 points. Level is therefore anchored at April's 105.5, with only a small positive continuation.

Current-release adjustments are approximately net zero beyond the persistence prior: recent momentum is positive, the March-April rebound may partly reverse as a one-off, weak building activity offsets stronger civil engineering and specialised work, and no specific policy mechanism warrants a further adjustment.

Eurostat's official release states that the next Production in construction release is 20 July 2026, matching the official Euro-indicators calendar and verifying the ledger resolution date rather than inferring it from monthly cadence.

Prior/update/interval: The model is a persistence-plus-mean-change prior using the six November-April official index observations. Successive changes are +0.3, -1.0, -0.5, +1.8, and +0.6 points; their mean is +0.24 and sample sigma = 1.08 points. Starting from 105.5 gives 105.5 + 0.24 = 105.74, rounded to 105.7. The empirical 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*1.08 = 1.38 points, implying 105.74 ± 1.38 = 104.36 to 107.12, rounded to 104.4-107.1.

Upside risk comes from another broad rebound like March, which would land above the interval. Downside risk comes from renewed building-sector weakness or reversal of the March-April surge; a monthly fall exceeding roughly 1.1 points would land below the interval. Either outcome would be outside the interval and falsify the central persistence view.

Review disposition: Accepted both optional wording improvements by clarifying that 0.24 is the mean of five successive level changes and identifying April 2026 as the latest available official observation; no required fixes were identified.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+105.7[+104.4 · +107.1]
Target metadata

Data point: eurostat.construction.production_index.2026_05.first_print

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