Government data

Canada CPI annual rate, Oct. 2026

Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index, Table 18-10-0004-01, all-items Canada not seasonally adjusted, October 2026 year-over-year percent change, first print.

Forecast

2.8%
2.2%–3.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
22.53.13.6March 2026August 2026Nov 20262.8%
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%1.3%2.8%4.3%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (2.2%–3.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (2.8%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast Canada CPI annual rate for October 2026

The resolver is Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01, all-items Canada CPI, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973. The target is the first-print October 2026 year-over-year percent change, in percent, rounded to one decimal from the official CPI index series.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0002 captured the Statistics Canada WDS vector range for v41690973, queried from 2025-01 through 2026-09 with returned values available through 2026-08 at draft time.
↳ Fetched official index values included 2025-03 163.5, 2025-04 163.4, 2025-05 164.3, 2025-06 164.4, 2025-07 164.9, 2025-08 164.8, 2025-10 165.3, 2026-03 167.4, 2026-04 168.0, 2026-05 169.6, 2026-06 169.0, 2026-07 169.9, and 2026-08 169.8.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0005 captured the Statistics Canada Daily page for Consumer Price Index, August 2026.
↳ The Daily page stated the CPI rose 3.0% year over year in August 2026, matching the 3.0% increase in July, and was issued on 2026-09-14.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0003 captured the official Statistics Canada 2026-2027 release dates PDF; the PDF bytes were preserved although the evidence excerpt is binary PDF text.
↳ The official 2026 release calendar row for Consumer Price Index gives November 16, 2026 for the October 2026 reference period; the same schedule has September 14, 2026 for August 2026 and October 19, 2026 for September 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
extract_json and calculate calls call-0018 through call-0023 transformed the captured WDS index values into annual rates.
↳ Calculated year-over-year prints were March 2026 2.4, April 2026 2.8, May 2026 3.2, June 2026 2.8, July 2026 3.0, and August 2026 3.0 percent.

Base rate/reference class: the relevant official-source reference class is the six latest transformed first-print-style annual rates from the same vector and variant, March through August 2026: 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.0 percent. That anchors the forecast near 3 percent before base-effect and two-month-bridge adjustments.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
calculate calls call-0029 and call-0030 used the captured August 2026 index, captured October 2025 index, and a stated two-month index-gain assumption.
↳ With August 2026 index 169.8 and October 2025 index 165.3, a flat index through October gives 2.7 percent; adding an assumed 0.2 index-point gain over September and October gives 2.8 percent.

Prior/update/interval: prior model is latest-rate persistence with a base-effect bridge, using the six official WDS-derived annual rates 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.0. Update components are level near 3.0, base-effect drag from the 2025-10 index of 165.3, and a modest +0.2 index-point September-October gain from the August 2026 index of 169.8, implying 2.8. Interval method uses realized dispersion of successive changes in the fetched annual-rate history: sigma = 0.3346640106 from call-0025, so 1.28*sigma = 0.4283699336 from call-0026. I widen to 0.6 because the sample is only six prints, the target is two CPI months ahead, and headline gasoline/food components can move the unadjusted index, which is about 1.4x the one-step half-width, giving 2.2 to 3.4.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed gasoline increase, food-price acceleration, or broad goods/services strength that would land above the interval, above 3.4 percent. Downside risk is a gasoline decline, softer shelter/services inflation, or weak goods prices that would land below the interval, below 2.2 percent. The outside the interval cases would require more than routine month-to-month noise over September and October.

Point and interval calculation: call-0030 gives pointEstimate 2.8. Using the widened 0.6 half-width, call-0031 gives ciLow 2.2 and call-0032 gives ciHigh 3.4, all rounded to one decimal percent to match the Statistics Canada CPI annual-rate print convention.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by changing resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical October-capable Statistics Canada WDS endpoint from the ledger source binding. Also accepted the consistency suggestion by clarifying that the WDS range was queried through 2026-09 but returned values through 2026-08 at draft time, and by explicitly noting the small six-print interval sample.

Key drivers

  • Latest official annual CPI prints are clustered near 3 percent
  • October 2025 base index of 165.3 creates mild downward base-effect pressure from August 2026
  • Modest two-month index growth from August to October keeps the point above the flat-index 2.7 percent calculation
  • Headline energy and food prices can move the two-month bridge materially
  • Bank of Canada policy restraint argues against a sharp inflation reacceleration

Tool evidence

Captured by Thesis’s tools. Artifact hashes match the run archive; replay results below were recorded by the runner. These checks do not authenticate the source publisher or validate the forecast’s judgment. Calls made through other tools are not covered.

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Response bytes are available as base64 in Raw evidence.

Runner verification checks
  • response_sha256
  • response_bytes
  • fetch_result
call-0004fetch_sourceSucceeded · response captured
Started
Completed
Source
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/index-eng.htm
Response
HTTP 200 · 22,980 bytes · body hash checked
SHA-256
7263cec5bbfb31d0db0b4517972dbfccfa106a5af7e2ada01ab9a3661c722427

Input

{
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}

Output

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<h1 property="name" id="wb-cont">Consumer Price Index, August 2026</h1>
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<p class="sd-release-date">Released:&#160;2026-09-14</p>
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Consumer Price Index
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<div class="panel-body sd-indicator-body">
<p class="sd-indicator-value"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-refper">August&#160;2026</p>
<p class="sd-indicator-divider"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth">3.0%&#160;<img src="/DailyWet4b/img/up.png" alt="increase" /></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth-details">(12-month change)</p>
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<div class="panel-footer sd-indicator-source"> <strong>Source(s): </strong>Table <a class="hyperlink" href=/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401>18-10-0004-01</a>.
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Food purchased from stores
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<div class="panel-body sd-indicator-body">
<p class="sd-indicator-value"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-refper">August&#160;2026</p>
<p class="sd-indicator-divider"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth">2.8%&#160;<img src="/DailyWet4b/img/up.png" alt="increase" /></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth-details">(12-month change)</p>
</div>
<div class="panel-footer sd-indicator-source"> <strong>Source(s): </strong>Table <a class="hyperlink" href=/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401>18-10-0004-01</a>.
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<div class="indicator-box">
<div class="panel-heading sd-indicator-heading">
Shelter
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<div class="panel-body sd-indicator-body">
<p class="sd-indicator-value"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-refper">August&#160;2026</p>
<p class="sd-indicator-divider"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth">1.5%&#160;<img src="/DailyWet4b/img/up.png" alt="increase" /></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth-details">(12-month change)</p>
</div>
<div class="panel-footer sd-indicator-source"> <strong>Source(s): </strong>Table <a class="hyperlink" href=/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401>18-10-0004-01</a>.
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Transportation
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<div class="panel-body sd-indicator-body">
<p class="sd-indicator-value"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-refper">August&#160;2026</p>
<p class="sd-indicator-divider"></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth">7.5%&#160;<img src="/DailyWet4b/img/up.png" alt="increase" /></p>
<p class="sd-indicator-growth-details">(12-month change)</p>
</div>
<div class="panel-footer sd-indicator-source"> <strong>Source(s): </strong>Table <a class="hyperlink" href=/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401>18-10-0004-01</a>.
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<p>The Consumer Price Index (<a class="acro01-tooltip">CPI</a>) rose&#160;3.0% year over year in August, matching the&#160;3.0% increase in July.</p><p>Year over year, prices for gasoline rose at a slower pace in August compared with July, putting downward pressure on the all-items <a class="acro02-tooltip">CPI</a>. Excluding gasoline, the <a class="acro03-tooltip">CPI</a> rose&#160;2.4% in August, after increasing&#160;2.2% in July. </p><p>In August, the slowdown in gasoline prices on an annual basis was offset by higher prices for travel tours and rent.</p><p>The <a class="acro04-tooltip">CPI</a> fell&#160;0.1% month over month in August. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the <a class="acro05-tooltip">CPI</a> rose&#160;0.2%.</p>
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  <div class="panel-heading">
  <h2 class="chartt"><strong>Chart&#160;1&#160;</strong> 
  <a href="cg-a001-eng.htm"> 
  <img class="pull-right" src="/dai-quo/img/magnify-clip.png" title="Enlarge chart 1" alt="Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline" /></a><br />
The&#160;12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline
</h2>
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  <div class="panel-body">
  <a href="cg-a001-eng.htm">
    <img src="cg260914a001-eng.png" class="sd-chart-thumbnail" title="Enlarge chart 1" alt="Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline" />
  </a>
  </div>
</div>

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  <div class="panel-heading">
  <h2 class="chartt"><strong>Chart&#160;2&#160;</strong> 
  <a href="cg-a002-eng.htm"> 
  <img class="pull-right" src="/dai-quo/img/magnify-clip.png" title="Enlarge chart 2" alt="Chart 2: Prices increase at a slower pace in five major components in August " /></a><br />
Prices increase at a slower pace in five major components in August 
</h2>
  </div>
  <div class="panel-body">
  <a href="cg-a002-eng.htm">
    <img src="cg260914a002-eng.png" class="sd-chart-thumbnail" title="Enlarge chart 2" alt="Chart 2: Prices increase at a slower pace in five major components in August " />
  </a>
  </div>
</div>
<h2>Prices for travel tours accelerate on a base-year effect</h2><p>Year over year, prices for travel tours rose at a faster pace in August (+26.1%) compared with July (+15.2%), partly due to a base-year effect. <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2026007/article/00005-eng.htm">Canadian travel to the United States declined sharply in&#160;2025</a>, putting downward pressure on prices for airfares and travel tours. Given that this decline has now stopped affecting the&#160;12-month price movement, along with the introduction of fuel surcharges amid higher prices for jet fuel, upward pressure has been put on the travel tours index.</p><p>On a monthly basis, prices for travel tours fell&#160;2.9% in August.</p><h2>Gasoline prices increase at a slower pace</h2><p>Prices for gasoline rose&#160;22.8% year over year in August, following a&#160;25.7% increase in July. Despite the year-over-year slowdown, prices for gasoline remained elevated, as the conflict in the Middle East continued in August.</p>
<div class="panel panel-default sd-thumbnail">
  <div class="panel-heading">
  <h2 class="chartt"><strong>Chart&#160;3&#160;</strong> 
  <a href="cg-a003-eng.htm"> 
  <img class="pull-right" src="/dai-quo/img/magnify-clip.png" title="Enlarge chart 3" alt="Chart 3: Prices for gasoline decelerate year over year " /></a><br />
Prices for gasoline decelerate year over year 
</h2>
  </div>
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  <a href="cg-a003-eng.htm">
    <img src="cg260914a003-eng.png" class="sd-chart-thumbnail" title="Enlarge chart 3" alt="Chart 3: Prices for gasoline decelerate year over year " />
  </a>
  </div>
</div>
<h2>Consumers pay less for clothing</h2><p>On a year-over-year basis, consumers paid less for clothing in August (<span class="nowrap">-1</span>.1%) compared with July (+0.9%). The decline was driven by lower prices for men's clothing (<span class="nowrap">-2</span>.3%) and children's clothing (<span class="nowrap">-1</span>.9%), following increases of&#160;2.0% for men's clothing and&#160;4.0% for children's clothing in July.</p><p>Conversely, women's clothing was unchanged (+0.0%) year over year in August, after falling&#160;0.7% in July, moderating the decline in clothing prices.</p><h2>Grocery price growth falls below headline inflation</h2><p>Price growth for food purchased from stores continued to slow in August, rising&#160;2.8% year over year after increasing&#160;3.1% in July. For the first time since July&#160;2024, grocery price growth increased at a slower pace than the all-items <a class="acro06-tooltip">CPI</a> in August&#160;2026.</p><p>Prices for dairy products led the deceleration in grocery prices; they rose&#160;0.7% year over year in August compared with a&#160;3.1% rise in July. Cheese and yogurt were the top contributors to the slowdown in dairy prices.</p><p>Smaller price increases for fresh or frozen pork (+1.6%), condiments, spices and vinegars (+0.7%) and fresh fruit (+4.7%) also contributed to the year-over-year slowdown in grocery inflation in August.</p><p>Although prices for groceries decelerated this month, prices have increased&#160;29.0% since August&#160;2021.</p>
<div class="panel panel-default sd-thumbnail">
  <div class="panel-heading">
  <h2 class="chartt"><strong>Chart&#160;4&#160;</strong> 
  <a href="cg-a004-eng.htm"> 
  <img class="pull-right" src="/dai-quo/img/magnify-clip.png" title="Enlarge chart 4" alt="Chart 4: Grocery prices increase at a slower pace than the all-items Consumer Price Index" /></a><br />
Grocery prices increase at a slower pace than the all-items Consumer Price Index
</h2>
  </div>
  <div class="panel-body">
  <a href="cg-a004-eng.htm">
    <img src="cg260914a004-eng.png" class="sd-chart-thumbnail" title="Enlarge chart 4" alt="Chart 4: Grocery prices increase at a slower pace than the all-items Consumer Price Index" />
  </a>
  </div>
</div>
<h2>Regional highlights</h2><p>Year over year, prices rose at a faster pace in six provinces in August compared with July.</p><p>Among the provinces, the Atlantic provinces had the highest rates of inflation in August, with price growth accelerating in Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. Prices for fuel oil and other fuels rose at a faster pace in August (+43.7%) compared with July (+29.5%), putting upward pressure on prices in these provinces, where fuel oil is more commonly used.</p><p>At the national level, prices for rent increased&#160;2.8% year over year in August compared with a&#160;2.5% increase in July. Higher prices in Manitoba (+4.3%) and Ontario (+2.4%) drove this acceleration. </p>
<div class="panel panel-default sd-thumbnail">
  <div class="panel-heading">
  <h2 class="chartt"><strong>Chart&#160;5&#160;</strong> 
  <a href="cg-a005-eng.htm"> 
  <img class="pull-right" src="/dai-quo/img/magnify-clip.png" title="Enlarge chart 5" alt="Chart 5: The Consumer Price Index increases at a faster pace in six provinces " /></a><br />
The Consumer Price Index increases at a faster pace in six provinces 
</h2>
  </div>
  <div class="panel-body">
  <a href="cg-a005-eng.htm">
    <img src="cg260914a005-eng.png" class="sd-chart-thumbnail" title="Enlarge chart 5" alt="Chart 5: The Consumer Price Index increases at a faster pace in six provinces " />
  </a>
  </div>
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  <span class="sd-tablet">Table&#160;1<br />Consumer Price Index, major components and special aggregates, Canada &#8211; Not seasonally adjusted</span></a>
</div>
<br />

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  <a href="t002a-eng.htm" class="btn btn-default">
  <span class="glyphicon glyphicon-lg glyphicon-th pull-left sd-tableicon"></span>
  <span class="sd-tablet">Table&#160;2<br />Consumer Price Index for the provinces and for Whitehorse, Yellowknife and Iqaluit &#8211; Not seasonally adjusted</span></a>
</div>
<br />

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  <span class="sd-tablet">Table&#160;3<br />Consumer Price Index, major components and special aggregates &#8211; Seasonally adjusted<sup></sup></span></a>
</div>
<br />

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  <a href="t004a-eng.htm" class="btn btn-default">
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  <span class="sd-tablet">Table&#160;4<br />Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation &#8211; Bank of Canada definitions, Canada<sup></sup><sup>,</sup><sup></sup></span></a>
</div>
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  <span class="sd-tablet">Table&#160;5<br />Main contributors to the&#160;12-month and&#160;1-month change in the Consumer Price Index</span></a>
</div>
<br />
<div class="panel panel-Default sd-noteuser">
  <div class="panel-heading sd-noteuser-heading">
    <h3 class="panel-title">&nbsp;&nbsp;Note to readers</h3>
  </div>
  <div class=" panel-body sd-noteuser-body">
<h3>Explore the Consumer Price Index tools </h3><p class="sd-first-para">Visit the <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes">Consumer Price Index portal</a> to find all Consumer Price Index (<a class="acro07-tooltip">CPI</a>) data, publications, interactive tools and announcements highlighting new products and upcoming changes to the <a class="acro08-tooltip">CPI</a> in one convenient location.</p><p>Check out the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020015-eng.htm">Personal Inflation Calculator</a>. This interactive calculator allows you to enter dollar amounts in the common expense categories to produce a personalized inflation rate, which you can compare with the official measure of inflation for the average Canadian househol<span class="nowrap">d&#8212;t</span>he <a class="acro09-tooltip">CPI</a>.</p><p>Browse the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018016-eng.htm">Consumer Price Index Data Visualization Tool</a> to access current (<a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm">Latest Snapshot of the CPI</a>) and historical (<a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpilg-ipcgl-eng.htm">Price trends:&#160;1914&#160;to today</a>) <a class="acro10-tooltip">CPI</a> data in a customizable visual format.</p><h3>Next release</h3><p>The <a class="acro11-tooltip">CPI</a> for September will be released on Monday, October&#160;19.</p>
  </div>
</div>

<h2>Products</h2>
<p>The "<a href="/en/catalogue/71-607-X2018016">Consumer Price Index Data Visualization Tool</a>" is available on the Statistics Canada website.</p><p>More information on the concepts and use of the Consumer Price Index (<a class="acro12-tooltip">CPI</a>) is available in <i>The Canadian Consumer Price Index Reference Paper</i> (<a href="/en/catalogue/62-553-X" title="Catalogue number 62-553-X"><span class="navaid">Catalogue number</span>62-553-X</a>).</p><p>For information on the history of the <a class="acro13-tooltip">CPI</a> in Canada, consult the publication <i>Exploring the first century of Canada's Consumer Price Index</i> (<a href="/en/catalogue/62-604-X" title="Catalogue number 62-604-X"><span class="navaid">Catalogue number</span>62-604-X</a>).</p><p>Two videos, "<a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/sc/video/cpi">An Overview of Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a>" and "<a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/sc/video/cpi2">The Consumer Price Index and Your Experience of Price Change</a>," are available on Statistics Canada's YouTube channel.</p><p>The podcast ''<a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/sc/podcasts/eh-sayers-ep18"><i>Eh Sayers Episode&#160;18&#160;- Why Food Inflation Is Such A Hard Nut To Crack</i></a>'' is also available.</p><p>Find out <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/2301_D67_V1">answers to the most common questions</a> posed about the <a class="acro14-tooltip">CPI</a> in the context of the COVID<span class="nowrap">-1</span>9&#160;pandemic and beyond.</p><h2>Contact information</h2><p>For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free <span class="phone">1-800-263-1136</span>; <span class="phone">514-283-8300</span>; <a href="mailto:infostats@statcan.gc.ca">infostats@statcan.gc.ca</a>) or Media Relations (<a href="mailto:statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca">statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca</a>).</p>
</section>
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}
Runner verification checks
  • json_pointer_replay
call-0018calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((mar2026 / mar2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "mar2025": {
      "callId": "call-0006"
    },
    "mar2026": {
      "callId": "call-0007"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "mar2025": 163.5,
    "mar2026": 167.4
  },
  "value": 2.4
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0019calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((apr2026 / apr2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "apr2025": {
      "callId": "call-0008"
    },
    "apr2026": {
      "callId": "call-0013"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "apr2025": 163.4,
    "apr2026": 168
  },
  "value": 2.8
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0020calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((may2026 / may2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "may2025": {
      "callId": "call-0009"
    },
    "may2026": {
      "callId": "call-0014"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "may2025": 164.3,
    "may2026": 169.6
  },
  "value": 3.2
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0021calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((jun2026 / jun2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "jun2025": {
      "callId": "call-0016"
    },
    "jun2026": {
      "callId": "call-0012"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "jun2025": 164.4,
    "jun2026": 169
  },
  "value": 2.8
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0022calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((jul2026 / jul2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "jul2025": {
      "callId": "call-0015"
    },
    "jul2026": {
      "callId": "call-0010"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "jul2025": 164.9,
    "jul2026": 169.9
  },
  "value": 3
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0023calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((aug2026 / aug2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "aug2025": {
      "callId": "call-0011"
    },
    "aug2026": {
      "callId": "call-0017"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "aug2025": 164.8,
    "aug2026": 169.8
  },
  "value": 3
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0024calculateFailed · retained for audit
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "stdev(diff([mar, apr, may, jun, jul, aug]))",
  "inputs": {
    "apr": {
      "callId": "call-0019"
    },
    "aug": {
      "callId": "call-0023"
    },
    "jul": {
      "callId": "call-0022"
    },
    "jun": {
      "callId": "call-0021"
    },
    "mar": {
      "callId": "call-0018"
    },
    "may": {
      "callId": "call-0020"
    }
  }
}

Output

null

Error

expression contains unsupported syntax
call-0025calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "stdev(diff(yoys))",
  "inputs": {
    "yoys": [
      2.4,
      2.8,
      3.2,
      2.8,
      3,
      3
    ]
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "yoys": [
      2.4,
      2.8,
      3.2,
      2.8,
      3,
      3
    ]
  },
  "value": 0.33466401061363044
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0026calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "1.28 * sigma",
  "inputs": {
    "sigma": {
      "callId": "call-0025"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "sigma": 0.33466401061363044
  },
  "value": 0.42836993358544695
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0027calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((aug2026 / oct2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "aug2026": {
      "callId": "call-0017"
    },
    "oct2025": 165.3
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "aug2026": 169.8,
    "oct2025": 165.3
  },
  "value": 2.7
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0028extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "pointer": "/0/object/vectorDataPoint/9/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0002"
}

Output

{
  "value": 165.3
}
Runner verification checks
  • json_pointer_replay
call-0029calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(((aug2026 / oct2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "aug2026": {
      "callId": "call-0017"
    },
    "oct2025": {
      "callId": "call-0028"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "aug2026": 169.8,
    "oct2025": 165.3
  },
  "value": 2.7
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0030calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round((((aug2026 + assumed_two_month_index_gain) / oct2025) - 1) * 100, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "assumed_two_month_index_gain": 0.2,
    "aug2026": {
      "callId": "call-0017"
    },
    "oct2025": {
      "callId": "call-0028"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "assumed_two_month_index_gain": 0.2,
    "aug2026": 169.8,
    "oct2025": 165.3
  },
  "value": 2.8
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0031calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(point - half_width, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "half_width": 0.6,
    "point": {
      "callId": "call-0030"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "half_width": 0.6,
    "point": 2.8
  },
  "value": 2.2
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay
call-0032calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed
Started
Completed

Input

{
  "expression": "round(point + half_width, 1)",
  "inputs": {
    "half_width": 0.6,
    "point": {
      "callId": "call-0030"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "half_width": 0.6,
    "point": 2.8
  },
  "value": 3.4
}
Runner verification checks
  • arithmetic_replay

Review calls

Archive integrity checkedRaw evidence ↗Replay report ↗

No tool calls were captured in this stage.

Forecast calls

Archive integrity checkedRaw evidence ↗Replay report ↗

No tool calls were captured in this stage.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index, Table 18-10-0004-01 and The Daily
Resolution date
November 16, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to Statistics Canada's first official October 2026 all-items Canada CPI print from Table 18-10-0004-01 vector v41690973, transformed as 100 * (October 2026 index / October 2025 index - 1), rounded to one decimal percent. Use the first print on the scheduled release date and ignore later revisions or corrections unless Statistics Canada withdraws the first print before scoring.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly publication-ready but needs the resolver URL/source aligned to the canonical target contract before publication.

  • blocking resolver: resolutionSourceUrl points to a historical range ending before the October 2026 target and does not match the canonical StatCan WDS resolving endpoint in the ledger contract.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the interval sigma is based on a very small six-print sample and that the 0.6 half-width is an explicit judgmental widening for two unreleased CPI months.
  • info optional_suggestion: Make sourceContext consistent with the evidence text: the cited vector range says through 2026-09 while the trace says values were captured through 2026-08.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by changing resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical October-capable Statistics Canada WDS endpoint from the ledger source binding. Also accepted the consistency suggestion by clarifying that the WDS range was queried through 2026-09 but returned values through 2026-08 at draft time, and by explicitly noting the small six-print interval sample.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by changing resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical October-capable Statistics Canada WDS endpoint from the ledger source binding. Also accepted the consistency suggestion by clarifying that the WDS range was queried through 2026-09 but returned values through 2026-08 at draft time, and by explicitly noting the small six-print interval sample.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by changing resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical October-capable Statistics Canada WDS endpoint from the ledger source binding. Also accepted the consistency suggestion by clarifying that the WDS range was queried through 2026-09 but returned values through 2026-08 at draft time, and by explicitly noting the small six-print interval sample.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast Canada CPI annual rate for October 2026

The resolver is Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01, all-items Canada CPI, not seasonally adjusted, vector v41690973. The target is the first-print October 2026 year-over-year percent change, in percent, rounded to one decimal from the official CPI index series.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0002 captured the Statistics Canada WDS vector range for v41690973, queried from 2025-01 through 2026-09 with returned values available through 2026-08 at draft time.
↳ Fetched official index values included 2025-03 163.5, 2025-04 163.4, 2025-05 164.3, 2025-06 164.4, 2025-07 164.9, 2025-08 164.8, 2025-10 165.3, 2026-03 167.4, 2026-04 168.0, 2026-05 169.6, 2026-06 169.0, 2026-07 169.9, and 2026-08 169.8.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0005 captured the Statistics Canada Daily page for Consumer Price Index, August 2026.
↳ The Daily page stated the CPI rose 3.0% year over year in August 2026, matching the 3.0% increase in July, and was issued on 2026-09-14.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
fetch_source call-0003 captured the official Statistics Canada 2026-2027 release dates PDF; the PDF bytes were preserved although the evidence excerpt is binary PDF text.
↳ The official 2026 release calendar row for Consumer Price Index gives November 16, 2026 for the October 2026 reference period; the same schedule has September 14, 2026 for August 2026 and October 19, 2026 for September 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
extract_json and calculate calls call-0018 through call-0023 transformed the captured WDS index values into annual rates.
↳ Calculated year-over-year prints were March 2026 2.4, April 2026 2.8, May 2026 3.2, June 2026 2.8, July 2026 3.0, and August 2026 3.0 percent.

Base rate/reference class: the relevant official-source reference class is the six latest transformed first-print-style annual rates from the same vector and variant, March through August 2026: 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.0 percent. That anchors the forecast near 3 percent before base-effect and two-month-bridge adjustments.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
calculate calls call-0029 and call-0030 used the captured August 2026 index, captured October 2025 index, and a stated two-month index-gain assumption.
↳ With August 2026 index 169.8 and October 2025 index 165.3, a flat index through October gives 2.7 percent; adding an assumed 0.2 index-point gain over September and October gives 2.8 percent.

Prior/update/interval: prior model is latest-rate persistence with a base-effect bridge, using the six official WDS-derived annual rates 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.0. Update components are level near 3.0, base-effect drag from the 2025-10 index of 165.3, and a modest +0.2 index-point September-October gain from the August 2026 index of 169.8, implying 2.8. Interval method uses realized dispersion of successive changes in the fetched annual-rate history: sigma = 0.3346640106 from call-0025, so 1.28*sigma = 0.4283699336 from call-0026. I widen to 0.6 because the sample is only six prints, the target is two CPI months ahead, and headline gasoline/food components can move the unadjusted index, which is about 1.4x the one-step half-width, giving 2.2 to 3.4.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed gasoline increase, food-price acceleration, or broad goods/services strength that would land above the interval, above 3.4 percent. Downside risk is a gasoline decline, softer shelter/services inflation, or weak goods prices that would land below the interval, below 2.2 percent. The outside the interval cases would require more than routine month-to-month noise over September and October.

Point and interval calculation: call-0030 gives pointEstimate 2.8. Using the widened 0.6 half-width, call-0031 gives ciLow 2.2 and call-0032 gives ciHigh 3.4, all rounded to one decimal percent to match the Statistics Canada CPI annual-rate print convention.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by changing resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical October-capable Statistics Canada WDS endpoint from the ledger source binding. Also accepted the consistency suggestion by clarifying that the WDS range was queried through 2026-09 but returned values through 2026-08 at draft time, and by explicitly noting the small six-print interval sample.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
2.8%[2.2% · 3.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: statcan.cpi.allitems.yoy.2026_10.first_print

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