Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Continued Claims, Week Ending 2026-08-22
What will the U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration first-print seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (continued claims, CCSA) be for week ending 2026-08-22?
current forecast · 80% CI1.8M
1.7M1.8M1.8M
history:week ending 2026-05-30: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-06: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-13: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-20: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-06-27: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-07-04: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-07-11: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-07-18: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-07-25: 1.8Mweek ending 2026-08-01: 1.8M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-17T17:07:28Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 17, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print
Key drivers
- recent seasonally adjusted insured unemployment centered near 1.79 million
- latest first-print level below the recent four-week average
- initial claims for week ending 2026-08-08 rose to 209000 but remained low
- three-week forecast horizon before the 2026-09-03 release
- weekly continued-claims changes recently had about 0.016 million standard deviation
Resolution
- source
- ALFRED graph CSV for FRED series CCSA, advance vintage of official ETA continued-claims print
- expected
- September 3, 2026
- rule
- Use the registered ALFRED graph CSV resolver for sourceSeriesId CCSA, field CCSA, releasePolicy advance_vintage, selecting the first vintage that contains the week ending 2026-08-22 seasonally adjusted insured unemployment value. Multiply the persons value by 0.000001 to express it in millions. Do not use later revised vintages after the first available advance vintage for this target week.
- Data point
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-22.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.