Government data

US JOLTS job openings, October 2026

What will the BLS first print report for total nonfarm job openings, seasonally adjusted, in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October 2026?

Forecast

7.1M

6.7M–7.5M

80% prediction interval

gpt-5.5Oct 2, 2026, 8:57 PM UTCRun record ↗

historyforecast path80% interval

Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.7M–7.5M). Dashed line: point estimate (7.1M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast for October 2026 JOLTS job openings first print

The target is BLS JOLTS series JTS000000000000000JOL, total nonfarm job openings level, seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands by the BLS API and converted to millions with factor 0.001. The resolution date is the registered target/sourceBinding date, tied to the official BLS JOLTS release schedule for the October 2026 release on December 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM; direct evidence capture of that schedule page was blocked by HTTP 403 in call-0002, so the schedule check is not receipt-preserved.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.fetch_sourcemodel report

call-0001 fetched BLS publicAPI series JTS000000000000000JOL for 2025-2026

↳ Captured official BLS values in thousands including 2026-08 = 7079, 2026-07 = 7335, 2026-06 = 7182, 2026-05 = 7537, 2026-04 = 7585, and 2026-03 = 6887.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.extract_jsonmodel report

call-0004 through call-0009 extracted the six latest monthly values from call-0001

↳ Extracted values were 7079, 7335, 7182, 7537, 7585, and 6887 thousand, which convert to 7.079, 7.335, 7.182, 7.537, 7.585, and 6.887 million.

Base rate/reference class: recent official BLS API history for the same seasonally adjusted total nonfarm openings series is the relevant reference class. The 2025-01 through 2026-08 values stayed mostly in a 6.55 to 7.59 million band, with August 2026 at 7.079 million and the latest three months averaging just under 7.2 million.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.calculatemodel report

call-0012 calculated the recent-three-month mean from 7.182, 7.335, and 7.079

↳ The recent-three-month level prior is 7.198666666666667 million from fetched BLS values 7.182, 7.335, and 7.079.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.calculatemodel report

call-0010 and call-0011 calculated month-to-month dispersion from the 2025-01 to 2026-08 fetched history

↳ Using fetched monthly levels 7.431, 7.242, 6.952, 7.098, 7.310, 7.204, 7.089, 6.919, 7.169, 7.170, 6.846, 6.550, 7.240, 6.922, 6.887, 7.585, 7.537, 7.182, 7.335, 7.079, sigma = 0.3136647836325081 for successive month-to-month changes and 1.28*sigma = 0.40149092304961037 million.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the latest-three-month mean from the same BLS series, 7.198666666666667 million. August 2026 was 0.119666666666667 million below that latest-three-month mean, so I apply a modest -0.098666666666667 million judgment adjustment for cooling labor demand after the August decline and no strong October-specific rebound signal, giving 7.100 million in call-0013. Historical sample is 2025-01 through 2026-08 official BLS API levels; adjustment components are level persistence, recent downward momentum, and no one-off policy mechanism large enough to move the center outside recent range. Interval method uses successive month-to-month changes for this level series: sigma = 0.3136647836325081, so the 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 0.40149092304961037; call-0014 and call-0015 imply 6.69850907695039 to 7.50149092304961, rounded to 6.7 to 7.5 million.

Upside risk is a rebound in hiring demand or delayed openings postings that would land above the interval, especially if September and October reverse the August weakness. Downside risk is a sharper pullback in vacancies tied to weaker employment growth or tighter business conditions, which would land below the interval. Outside the interval would require either a move below about 6.7 million or above about 7.5 million, larger than the usual one-month changes in the fetched reference class.

Review disposition: accepted the clarifications that the December 1, 2026 date is anchored by the registered official release-calendar target despite the blocked schedule-page receipt, that sigma is from successive month-to-month changes rather than level dispersion, and that the cooling adjustment is quantified against the latest-three-month mean.

Key drivers

recent JOLTS openings level near 7.1 million
one-month August pullback after July rebound
labor demand cooling but not collapsing
first-print uncertainty from recent month-to-month volatility

Tool evidence

Captured by Thesis’s tools. Artifact hashes match the run archive; replay results below were recorded by the runner. These checks do not authenticate the source publisher or validate the forecast’s judgment. Calls made through other tools are not covered.

Draft calls

Archive integrity checkedRaw evidence ↗Replay report ↗

call-0001fetch_sourceSucceeded · response captured

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:37.474589Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:37.828850Z
Source: https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/JTS000000000000000JOL?startyear=2025&endyear=2026
Response: HTTP 200 · 1,937 bytes · body hash checked
SHA-256: 3bcabd12b9e0a1058dafbfec7e5a1a6303e18a6e8ef7c2d36e74d2044bbaeb4b

Input

{
  "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/JTS000000000000000JOL?startyear=2025&endyear=2026"
}

Output

{
  "bytes": 1937,
  "contentType": "application/json",
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  "excerptTruncated": false,
  "sha256": "3bcabd12b9e0a1058dafbfec7e5a1a6303e18a6e8ef7c2d36e74d2044bbaeb4b",
  "status": 200,
  "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/JTS000000000000000JOL?startyear=2025&endyear=2026"
}

Response headers

[
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    "x-content-type-options",
    "nosniff"
  ],
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    "content-type",
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  ],
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    "route-id",
    "_t8_07v; "
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    "pool-info",
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    "x-frame-options",
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    "frame-ancestors https://*.bls.gov"
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    "vary",
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]

Full response text

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"series":
[{"seriesID":"JTS000000000000000JOL","data":[{"year":"2026","period":"M08","periodName":"August","latest":"true","value":"7079","footnotes":[{"code":"P","text":"preliminary"}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M07","periodName":"July","value":"7335","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M06","periodName":"June","value":"7182","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M05","periodName":"May","value":"7537","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M04","periodName":"April","value":"7585","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M03","periodName":"March","value":"6887","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M02","periodName":"February","value":"6922","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2026","period":"M01","periodName":"January","value":"7240","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M12","periodName":"December","value":"6550","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M11","periodName":"November","value":"6846","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M10","periodName":"October","value":"7170","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M09","periodName":"September","value":"7169","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M08","periodName":"August","value":"6919","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M07","periodName":"July","value":"7089","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M06","periodName":"June","value":"7204","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M05","periodName":"May","value":"7310","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M04","periodName":"April","value":"7098","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M03","periodName":"March","value":"6952","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M02","periodName":"February","value":"7242","footnotes":[{}]},{"year":"2025","period":"M01","periodName":"January","value":"7431","footnotes":[{}]}]}]
}}

Runner verification checks

response_sha256
response_bytes
fetch_result

call-0002fetch_sourceFailed · retained for audit

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:39.380564Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:39.607098Z
Source: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
Response: HTTP 403 · 1,325 bytes · body hash checked
SHA-256: a731d576302c024d7ad87e0afe90f46d5634cc01ca753ab5187a4383246b3ef4

Input

{
  "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm"
}

Output

null

Error

source returned HTTP 403

Response headers

[
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    "server",
    "AkamaiGHost"
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  [
    "mime-version",
    "1.0"
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    "alt-svc",
    "h3=\":443\"; ma=93600"
  ],
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    "strict-transport-security",
    "max-age=31536000 ; includeSubDomains ; preload"
  ]
]

Full response text

<!DOCTYPE HTML>
<html lang="en-us">      
               <head> 
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" />
<title>Access Denied</title>
</head>
  <style type="text/css">
    .centerDiv
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      width: 60%;
      height:200px;
      margin: 0 auto;
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               <h1><a href=https://www.bls.gov><!--img src="/apology_objects/images/01.jpg" border="0"--></a><span style="font-family: Times, serif; color: #990000; font-size: 38px;">Bureau of Labor Statistics</span></h1>
    <h2>Access Denied</h2>
              
               <p>The BLS is committed to providing data promptly and according to established schedules. Automated retrieval programs (commonly called "robots" or "bots") can cause delays and interfere with other customers' timely access to information. Therefore, bot activity that doesn't conform to BLS usage policy is prohibited.</p>
              
 
               <p>We apologize for any inconvenience. If you believe we have made an error, please <a href=https://data.bls.gov/forms/opb.htm?akamai-0.2751db17.1790974599.2410b848>contact us</a>.</p>
              
               <p>Please contact your administrator with the error code: 0.2751db17.1790974599.2410b848</p>
</div>
</body>
</html>

Runner verification checks

response_sha256
response_bytes

call-0003fetch_sourceFailed · retained for audit

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:41.812908Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:41.945622Z
Source: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/2026_sched.htm
Response: HTTP 403 · 1,325 bytes · body hash checked
SHA-256: d3cf3a2aa2c05aeb19f01047c8dc156bd12636ac8d1b519b255e7b5bf47f6735

Input

{
  "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/2026_sched.htm"
}

Output

null

Error

source returned HTTP 403

Response headers

[
  [
    "server",
    "AkamaiGHost"
  ],
  [
    "mime-version",
    "1.0"
  ],
  [
    "content-length",
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  [
    "cache-control",
    "no-cache, no-store, must-revalidate"
  ],
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  [
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  ],
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Full response text

<!DOCTYPE HTML>
<html lang="en-us">      
               <head> 
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" />
<title>Access Denied</title>
</head>
  <style type="text/css">
    .centerDiv
    {
      width: 60%;
      height:200px;
      margin: 0 auto;
      background-color:#FFFFFF ;
    }
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<body>
<div class="centerDiv">
               <h1><a href=https://www.bls.gov><!--img src="/apology_objects/images/01.jpg" border="0"--></a><span style="font-family: Times, serif; color: #990000; font-size: 38px;">Bureau of Labor Statistics</span></h1>
    <h2>Access Denied</h2>
              
               <p>The BLS is committed to providing data promptly and according to established schedules. Automated retrieval programs (commonly called "robots" or "bots") can cause delays and interfere with other customers' timely access to information. Therefore, bot activity that doesn't conform to BLS usage policy is prohibited.</p>
              
 
               <p>We apologize for any inconvenience. If you believe we have made an error, please <a href=https://data.bls.gov/forms/opb.htm?akamai-0.2751db17.1790974601.2410da33>contact us</a>.</p>
              
               <p>Please contact your administrator with the error code: 0.2751db17.1790974601.2410da33</p>
</div>
</body>
</html>

Runner verification checks

response_sha256
response_bytes

call-0004extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.732525Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.732995Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/0/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "7079"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0005extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.739435Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.739714Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/1/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "7335"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0006extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.741010Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.741245Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/2/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "7182"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0007extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.742850Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.743084Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/4/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "7585"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0008extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.744451Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.744684Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/3/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "7537"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0009extract_jsonSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.773255Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:48.773434Z

Input

{
  "pointer": "/Results/series/0/data/5/value",
  "sourceCallId": "call-0001"
}

Output

{
  "value": "6887"
}

Runner verification checks

json_pointer_replay

call-0010calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:52.434286Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:52.434691Z

Input

{
  "expression": "stdev(diff(history))",
  "inputs": {
    "history": [
      7.431,
      7.242,
      6.952,
      7.098,
      7.31,
      7.204,
      7.089,
      6.919,
      7.169,
      7.17,
      6.846,
      6.55,
      7.24,
      6.922,
      6.887,
      7.585,
      7.537,
      7.182,
      7.335,
      7.079
    ]
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "history": [
      7.431,
      7.242,
      6.952,
      7.098,
      7.31,
      7.204,
      7.089,
      6.919,
      7.169,
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      6.846,
      6.55,
      7.24,
      6.922,
      6.887,
      7.585,
      7.537,
      7.182,
      7.335,
      7.079
    ]
  },
  "value": 0.3136647836325081
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

call-0011calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:53.598303Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:53.598410Z

Input

{
  "expression": "1.28 * sigma",
  "inputs": {
    "sigma": {
      "callId": "call-0010"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "sigma": 0.3136647836325081
  },
  "value": 0.40149092304961037
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

call-0012calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:54.961876Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:54.962024Z

Input

{
  "expression": "mean(recent3)",
  "inputs": {
    "recent3": [
      7.182,
      7.335,
      7.079
    ]
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "recent3": [
      7.182,
      7.335,
      7.079
    ]
  },
  "value": 7.198666666666667
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

call-0013calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:56.788070Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:56.788165Z

Input

{
  "expression": "prior + adjustment",
  "inputs": {
    "adjustment": -0.098666666666667,
    "prior": {
      "callId": "call-0012"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "adjustment": -0.098666666666667,
    "prior": 7.198666666666667
  },
  "value": 7.1
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

call-0014calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:58.005593Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:58.005698Z

Input

{
  "expression": "point - half_width",
  "inputs": {
    "half_width": {
      "callId": "call-0011"
    },
    "point": {
      "callId": "call-0013"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "half_width": 0.40149092304961037,
    "point": 7.1
  },
  "value": 6.69850907695039
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

call-0015calculateSucceeded · runner replay passed

Started: 2026-10-02T20:56:59.275218Z
Completed: 2026-10-02T20:56:59.275313Z

Input

{
  "expression": "point + half_width",
  "inputs": {
    "half_width": {
      "callId": "call-0011"
    },
    "point": {
      "callId": "call-0013"
    }
  }
}

Output

{
  "resolvedInputs": {
    "half_width": 0.40149092304961037,
    "point": 7.1
  },
  "value": 7.50149092304961
}

Runner verification checks

arithmetic_replay

Review calls

Archive integrity checkedRaw evidence ↗Replay report ↗

No tool calls were captured in this stage.

Forecast calls

Archive integrity checkedRaw evidence ↗Replay report ↗

No tool calls were captured in this stage.

Sources and resolution

Official source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Resolution date: December 1, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule: Resolve to the first BLS publicAPI value for series JTS000000000000000JOL, period 2026 M10, field value, multiplied by 0.001 to convert thousands to millions. Use the first official print only; do not apply later revisions or same-day correction grace unless the registered target is changed.

Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable: it matches the registered resolver contract and includes a clear persistence prior, update, volatility-based interval, tails, and coherent JSON fields.

info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the December 1, 2026 resolution date is anchored by the registered target/sourceBinding since the schedule-page fetch was not receipt-preserved.
info optional_suggestion: Tighten the interval wording so it unambiguously says whether sigma is from month-to-month changes or level dispersion.
info optional_suggestion: Quantify the cooling adjustment with one sentence comparing August 2026 to the latest-three-month mean.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the clarifications that the December 1, 2026 date is anchored by the registered official release-calendar target despite the blocked schedule-page receipt, that sigma is from successive month-to-month changes rather than level dispersion, and that the cooling adjustment is quantified against the latest-three-month mean.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for October 2026 JOLTS job openings first print

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.fetch_sourcemodel report

call-0001 fetched BLS publicAPI series JTS000000000000000JOL for 2025-2026

↳ Captured official BLS values in thousands including 2026-08 = 7079, 2026-07 = 7335, 2026-06 = 7182, 2026-05 = 7537, 2026-04 = 7585, and 2026-03 = 6887.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.extract_jsonmodel report

call-0004 through call-0009 extracted the six latest monthly values from call-0001

↳ Extracted values were 7079, 7335, 7182, 7537, 7585, and 6887 thousand, which convert to 7.079, 7.335, 7.182, 7.537, 7.585, and 6.887 million.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.calculatemodel report

call-0012 calculated the recent-three-month mean from 7.182, 7.335, and 7.079

↳ The recent-three-month level prior is 7.198666666666667 million from fetched BLS values 7.182, 7.335, and 7.079.

▸ Reported tool use: evidence.calculatemodel report

call-0010 and call-0011 calculated month-to-month dispersion from the 2025-01 to 2026-08 fetched history

↳ Using fetched monthly levels 7.431, 7.242, 6.952, 7.098, 7.310, 7.204, 7.089, 6.919, 7.169, 7.170, 6.846, 6.550, 7.240, 6.922, 6.887, 7.585, 7.537, 7.182, 7.335, 7.079, sigma = 0.3136647836325081 for successive month-to-month changes and 1.28*sigma = 0.40149092304961037 million.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI

7.1M[6.7M · 7.5M]

Target metadata

Data point: bls.jolts.job_openings.2026_10.first_print

Analysis

§Forecast for October 2026 JOLTS job openings first print

Key drivers

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Activity artifacts

§Forecast for October 2026 JOLTS job openings first print

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