thesisPrototype

Government data

US initial claims, week ending Aug. 8, 2026

U.S. Department of Labor advance seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending August 8, 2026, first print, in thousands.

Forecast

201k
187k–215k
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%166k201k236kForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (187k–215k). Dashed line: point estimate (201k).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
209k
forecast
201k with 80% interval [187k, 215k]
error
+8k · absolute 8k
cdf score
CRPS 4.86 · PIT 0.73
source
dol_eta Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (advance)

DOL ETA UI Weekly Claims news release, advance seasonally adjusted figure for the week ending 2026-08-08, read from FRED ICSA (advance vintage) as the cell's resolver names.

Analysis

§Forecast for U.S. initial claims, week ending August 8, 2026

Framing and exact resolver: the target is the DOL advance seasonally adjusted initial claims figure for the week ending August 8, 2026, not NSA claims, continuing claims, or a later revised vintage. The registered resolver uses ALFRED/FRED series ICSA as the advance-vintage source binding for the first official DOL print, converted to thousands.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened the DOL current UI Weekly Claims PDF for the latest official release and recent table values.
↳ The August 6, 2026 DOL release reported week ending August 1 initial claims SA at 199,000, prior week revised to 198,000, July 18 at 189,000, and the 4-week moving average at 198,750.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the DOL Office of Unemployment Insurance claims archive publication schedule for the release timing rule.
↳ DOL says the UI Weekly Claims News Release is published each week on Thursday morning at 8:30 AM Eastern, with a listed 2026 non-Thursday exception on Wednesday November 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM; August 13, 2026 is the Thursday release for the August 8 week.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the FRED release calendar mirror for the specific 2026 weekly claims release date as a schedule cross-check, while keeping DOL as the underlying official release and ALFRED/FRED ICSA as the registered advance-vintage adapter.
↳ The release calendar lists Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report entries at 7:30 AM Central on Thursday August 6, 2026, Thursday August 13, 2026, and Thursday August 20, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened BLS current seasonal factors for weekly initial and continued claims to compare the target week with the latest observed week.
↳ BLS lists initial-claims seasonal factors of 0.861 for 2026-08-01 and 0.893 for 2026-08-08, with continued-claims factors of 1.019 and 0.999 respectively.

Reference class and base rate: using the DOL/ICSA 2026 seasonally adjusted weekly initial-claims table from January 3 through August 1, values mostly sit in a 190k-230k range, with recent levels 217k, 209k, 189k, 198k, and 199k. The immediate base rate is a 199k persistence prior before a small upward update, rather than the higher June level around 224k.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is latest SA level 199k, historical sample is DOL/ICSA 2026 weekly SA initial claims from January 3 through August 1 using available latest-public values as a proxy for first-print volatility, adjustment components are +2k mean reversion from the July 18 low and late-July rebound, +0k for seasonal translation because the target is SA, and +0k for policy/mechanism shock because continuing claims and IUR do not show a break. The 30 successive weekly changes have sigma = 10.6k; 1.28*sigma = 13.6k, so an 80% interval around a 201k point is 201 +/- 13.6 = 187.4k to 214.6k, rounded to 187k-215k.

Upside risk: a renewed layoff cluster, delayed claims after summer plant shutdowns, or a state-processing catch-up would land above the interval if the advance SA print is above 215k. Downside risk: another holiday/auto-seasonality overadjustment or continued unusually low layoffs would land below the interval if the first print is under 187k.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and rule to the registered ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage source binding and using the ledger window-end resolution date, while retaining the DOL August 13, 2026 first-print release as the underlying agency event; accepted the clarification that the 199k base rate precedes the +2k update and that sigma uses available latest-public weekly changes as a first-print volatility proxy.

Key drivers

  • Latest DOL/ICSA level is 199k, with the 4-week average at 198.75k.
  • Recent 2026 weekly SA claims changes have sigma = 10.6k, implying an 80% half-width near 13.6k.
  • July auto-retooling volatility appears to have faded after the 189k July 18 dip and 198k-199k rebound.
  • BLS seasonal factor rises from 0.861 for August 1 to 0.893 for August 8, but the target is seasonally adjusted, so this mainly frames NSA-to-SA translation risk.
  • Continuing claims at 1.801 million and insured unemployment rate at 1.2 percent indicate no abrupt layoff regime break.

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage record of the U.S. Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release
Resolved
August 15, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first available advance-vintage ALFRED/FRED ICSA value for the observation week ending August 8, 2026, reflecting the first-published DOL seasonally adjusted initial claims print. Convert persons to thousands by multiplying by 0.001; use the first print only and ignore later revisions. The DOL release expected inside the registered window is the Thursday August 13, 2026 UI Weekly Claims release.

Forecast history

Select a version to read its estimate and analysis.

Forecast versions, estimates, and intervals
VersionDateEstimate80% intervalCRPS
gpt-5.5 · selectedAug 7, 2026201k187k–215k4.86
persistence.last_printAug 7, 2026197k184k–210k7.25
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly coherent, but it conflicts with the ledger contract on resolver/source binding and likely resolutionDate handling.

  • blocking resolver: Draft uses DOL PDF URL and resolutionDate 2026-08-13, while the canonical target contract binds the resolving adapter/source to ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance vintage with expectedReleaseWindow ending 2026-08-15.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify whether the 10.6k sigma is computed from first prints or latest revised weekly changes, since the target is first print.
  • info optional_suggestion: Make the base-rate sentence slightly more explicit that the 199k persistence prior is chosen before the +2k update.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and rule to the registered ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage source binding and using the ledger window-end resolution date, while retaining the DOL August 13, 2026 first-print release as the underlying agency event; accepted the clarification that the 199k base rate precedes the +2k update and that sigma uses available latest-public weekly changes as a first-print volatility proxy.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and rule to the registered ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage source binding and using the ledger window-end resolution date, while retaining the DOL August 13, 2026 first-print release as the underlying agency event; accepted the clarification that the 199k base rate precedes the +2k update and that sigma uses available latest-public weekly changes as a first-print volatility proxy.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and rule to the registered ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage source binding and using the ledger window-end resolution date, while retaining the DOL August 13, 2026 first-print release as the underlying agency event; accepted the clarification that the 199k base rate precedes the +2k update and that sigma uses available latest-public weekly changes as a first-print volatility proxy.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for U.S. initial claims, week ending August 8, 2026

Framing and exact resolver: the target is the DOL advance seasonally adjusted initial claims figure for the week ending August 8, 2026, not NSA claims, continuing claims, or a later revised vintage. The registered resolver uses ALFRED/FRED series ICSA as the advance-vintage source binding for the first official DOL print, converted to thousands.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened the DOL current UI Weekly Claims PDF for the latest official release and recent table values.
↳ The August 6, 2026 DOL release reported week ending August 1 initial claims SA at 199,000, prior week revised to 198,000, July 18 at 189,000, and the 4-week moving average at 198,750.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the DOL Office of Unemployment Insurance claims archive publication schedule for the release timing rule.
↳ DOL says the UI Weekly Claims News Release is published each week on Thursday morning at 8:30 AM Eastern, with a listed 2026 non-Thursday exception on Wednesday November 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM; August 13, 2026 is the Thursday release for the August 8 week.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the FRED release calendar mirror for the specific 2026 weekly claims release date as a schedule cross-check, while keeping DOL as the underlying official release and ALFRED/FRED ICSA as the registered advance-vintage adapter.
↳ The release calendar lists Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report entries at 7:30 AM Central on Thursday August 6, 2026, Thursday August 13, 2026, and Thursday August 20, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened BLS current seasonal factors for weekly initial and continued claims to compare the target week with the latest observed week.
↳ BLS lists initial-claims seasonal factors of 0.861 for 2026-08-01 and 0.893 for 2026-08-08, with continued-claims factors of 1.019 and 0.999 respectively.

Reference class and base rate: using the DOL/ICSA 2026 seasonally adjusted weekly initial-claims table from January 3 through August 1, values mostly sit in a 190k-230k range, with recent levels 217k, 209k, 189k, 198k, and 199k. The immediate base rate is a 199k persistence prior before a small upward update, rather than the higher June level around 224k.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is latest SA level 199k, historical sample is DOL/ICSA 2026 weekly SA initial claims from January 3 through August 1 using available latest-public values as a proxy for first-print volatility, adjustment components are +2k mean reversion from the July 18 low and late-July rebound, +0k for seasonal translation because the target is SA, and +0k for policy/mechanism shock because continuing claims and IUR do not show a break. The 30 successive weekly changes have sigma = 10.6k; 1.28*sigma = 13.6k, so an 80% interval around a 201k point is 201 +/- 13.6 = 187.4k to 214.6k, rounded to 187k-215k.

Upside risk: a renewed layoff cluster, delayed claims after summer plant shutdowns, or a state-processing catch-up would land above the interval if the advance SA print is above 215k. Downside risk: another holiday/auto-seasonality overadjustment or continued unusually low layoffs would land below the interval if the first print is under 187k.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and rule to the registered ALFRED/FRED ICSA advance-vintage source binding and using the ledger window-end resolution date, while retaining the DOL August 13, 2026 first-print release as the underlying agency event; accepted the clarification that the 199k base rate precedes the +2k update and that sigma uses available latest-public weekly changes as a first-print volatility proxy.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
201k[187k · 215k]
Target metadata

Data point: us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-08-08

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