thesisPrototype

Government data

US JOLTS hires rate, July 2026

What will the BLS first-print seasonally adjusted total nonfarm hires rate be for July 2026 in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey?

Forecast

3.3%
3.1%–3.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%2.8%3.3%3.8%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (3.1%–3.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (3.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
3.2%
forecast
3.3% with 80% interval [3.1%, 3.5%]
error
-0.1% · absolute 0.1%
cdf score
CRPS 0.063 · PIT 0.30
source
bls_jolts JOLTS news release, Table 1

First print for 2026-07 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=JTSHIR&vintage_date=2026-09-01 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US JOLTS total nonfarm hires rate, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast is for the BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted total nonfarm hires rate, series JTS000000000000000HIR, mirrored as ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR, for reference month July 2026. The release variant is seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm, rate, first print, in percent rounded to one decimal.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule page for the reference-month release date.
↳ The BLS schedule lists July 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM, June 2026 JOLTS for Aug. 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM, and August 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS 2026 selected-release calendar as an official date cross-check.
↳ The September 2026 calendar lists Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July 2026; the August 2026 calendar lists Tuesday, August 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM for June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS May 2026 JOLTS release archive and Table A / Table 1 text for the latest official print available before this run.
↳ For May 2026, BLS reported hires unchanged at 5.2 million and the hires rate unchanged at 3.3 percent; Table A showed total hires of 5,170 thousand in May 2026, 5,215 thousand in April 2026, and 5,328 thousand in May 2025, with rates of 3.3, 3.3, and 3.4 percent respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Read FRED/ALFRED public JTSHIR history as a mirror of BLS series JTS000000000000000HIR.
↳ Recent JTSHIR values were May 2026 3.3, Apr 2026 3.3, Mar 2026 3.5, Feb 2026 3.1, Jan 2026 3.4, Dec 2025 3.3, Nov 2025 3.2, Oct 2025 3.3, Sep 2025 3.3, and Aug 2025 3.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Pulled a recent reference-class window from the FRED JTSHIR table for realized dispersion and persistence checks.
↳ The 2024-01 through 2026-05 rate path included 2024-01 3.6, 2024-06 3.3, 2024-12 3.3, 2025-06 3.4, 2025-07 3.3, 2025-12 3.3, 2026-01 3.4, 2026-02 3.1, 2026-03 3.5, 2026-04 3.3, and 2026-05 3.3 percent.

Reference class and base rate: since early 2024 the total nonfarm seasonally adjusted hires rate has mostly sat in a narrow 3.2 to 3.6 percent band, with July 2025 at 3.3 percent and the latest May 2026 print also 3.3 percent. That makes a persistence base rate around 3.3 percent the right starting point.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest May 2026 value of 3.3 percent, with a small level adjustment of 0.0 because BLS described hires as unchanged and recent churn indicators were stable; momentum adjustment = 0.0 because Apr-to-May was 0.0 and the recent 3-month average is about (3.5+3.3+3.3)/3 = 3.37, which rounds near 3.3; one-off/policy adjustment = 0.0 because there is no official-source evidence of a July hiring regime break. For the 2024-01 to 2026-05 fetched window, target-horizon two-month changes have sample sigma = 0.17 percentage point; 80 percent half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.17 = 0.218 percentage point, rounded to the one-decimal target as about 0.2. Final implied bounds: 3.3 - 0.2 = 3.1 and 3.3 + 0.2 = 3.5.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from summer leisure, retail, or government hiring rebounding enough to push the rounded first print to 3.6 or higher, which would land above the interval. Downside risk would come from a broad hiring freeze or sharp payroll slowdown pushing the first print to 3.0 or lower, which would land outside the interval below. The middle case is that low churn persists and July rounds to 3.3.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

Key drivers

  • Recent hires rate has been pinned near 3.3 percent
  • May 2026 BLS release described hires as unchanged at 5.2 million and 3.3 percent
  • Low labor-market churn keeps the persistence prior strong
  • Two-month forecast horizon allows June and July volatility but not a regime-break assumption
  • First-print rounded-to-one-decimal target makes 3.3 the modal bin

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED first-print vintage for BLS JOLTS hires rate series JTSHIR
Resolved
September 3, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first ALFRED/FRED vintage value for JTSHIR, the seasonally adjusted total nonfarm hires rate mirrored from BLS JOLTS Table 1 series JTS000000000000000HIR, for July 2026. The unit is percent, rounded to one decimal. Use the first official print only; ignore later monthly revisions, annual benchmark revisions, and later vintage changes.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable after aligning the resolver/source fields to the canonical ALFRED first-print binding and tightening the interval method for the two-month horizon.

  • blocking resolver: Resolution source fields do not match the canonical ledger binding: the draft uses a BLS timeseries URL while the target contract binds first-print resolution to ALFRED/FRED series JTSHIR at the ALFRED CSV URL.
  • warning interval: The interval uses one-month change sigma even though the forecast horizon is effectively May-to-July with June still unknown.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the Prior/update/interval step, name the historical sample as 2024-01 through 2026-05 and clarify whether sigma is from one-month or target-horizon changes.
  • info optional_suggestion: Keep the BLS schedule evidence for the 2026-09-01 release date; it is coherent with the target.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US JOLTS total nonfarm hires rate, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast is for the BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted total nonfarm hires rate, series JTS000000000000000HIR, mirrored as ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR, for reference month July 2026. The release variant is seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm, rate, first print, in percent rounded to one decimal.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule page for the reference-month release date.
↳ The BLS schedule lists July 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM, June 2026 JOLTS for Aug. 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM, and August 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS 2026 selected-release calendar as an official date cross-check.
↳ The September 2026 calendar lists Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July 2026; the August 2026 calendar lists Tuesday, August 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM for June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS May 2026 JOLTS release archive and Table A / Table 1 text for the latest official print available before this run.
↳ For May 2026, BLS reported hires unchanged at 5.2 million and the hires rate unchanged at 3.3 percent; Table A showed total hires of 5,170 thousand in May 2026, 5,215 thousand in April 2026, and 5,328 thousand in May 2025, with rates of 3.3, 3.3, and 3.4 percent respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Read FRED/ALFRED public JTSHIR history as a mirror of BLS series JTS000000000000000HIR.
↳ Recent JTSHIR values were May 2026 3.3, Apr 2026 3.3, Mar 2026 3.5, Feb 2026 3.1, Jan 2026 3.4, Dec 2025 3.3, Nov 2025 3.2, Oct 2025 3.3, Sep 2025 3.3, and Aug 2025 3.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Pulled a recent reference-class window from the FRED JTSHIR table for realized dispersion and persistence checks.
↳ The 2024-01 through 2026-05 rate path included 2024-01 3.6, 2024-06 3.3, 2024-12 3.3, 2025-06 3.4, 2025-07 3.3, 2025-12 3.3, 2026-01 3.4, 2026-02 3.1, 2026-03 3.5, 2026-04 3.3, and 2026-05 3.3 percent.

Reference class and base rate: since early 2024 the total nonfarm seasonally adjusted hires rate has mostly sat in a narrow 3.2 to 3.6 percent band, with July 2025 at 3.3 percent and the latest May 2026 print also 3.3 percent. That makes a persistence base rate around 3.3 percent the right starting point.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest May 2026 value of 3.3 percent, with a small level adjustment of 0.0 because BLS described hires as unchanged and recent churn indicators were stable; momentum adjustment = 0.0 because Apr-to-May was 0.0 and the recent 3-month average is about (3.5+3.3+3.3)/3 = 3.37, which rounds near 3.3; one-off/policy adjustment = 0.0 because there is no official-source evidence of a July hiring regime break. For the 2024-01 to 2026-05 fetched window, target-horizon two-month changes have sample sigma = 0.17 percentage point; 80 percent half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.17 = 0.218 percentage point, rounded to the one-decimal target as about 0.2. Final implied bounds: 3.3 - 0.2 = 3.1 and 3.3 + 0.2 = 3.5.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from summer leisure, retail, or government hiring rebounding enough to push the rounded first print to 3.6 or higher, which would land above the interval. Downside risk would come from a broad hiring freeze or sharp payroll slowdown pushing the first print to 3.0 or lower, which would land outside the interval below. The middle case is that low churn persists and July rounds to 3.3.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the canonical ALFRED JTSHIR first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 1 as the underlying official series. Accepted the interval critique by restating sigma as a two-month target-horizon realized-change estimate for the 2024-01 through 2026-05 reference window; the rounded 80 percent bounds remain 3.1 to 3.5.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
3.3%[3.1% · 3.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_07.first_print

More government data forecasts