thesisPrototype

Government data

US JOLTS hires rate, June 2026

What will the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey total nonfarm hires rate, seasonally adjusted, be for June 2026 in the first print?

Forecast

3.3%
3.12%–3.48%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%2.85%3.3%3.75%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (3.12%–3.48%). Dashed line: point estimate (3.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
3.4%
forecast
3.3% with 80% interval [3.12%, 3.48%]
error
+0.1% · absolute 0.1%
cdf score
CRPS 0.061 · PIT 0.72
source
bls_jolts JOLTS news release, Table 1

First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=JTSHIR&vintage_date=2026-08-04 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§Forecast for June 2026 BLS JOLTS hires rate

Framing: this is the BLS JOLTS Total nonfarm hires rate, seasonally adjusted, for June 2026, first print, tied to ledger source series JTSHIR. The ledger binding names the JOLTS news release table and the ALFRED/FRED first-print adapter; the BLS support table inspected for the current release is Table 2, while the registered resolver text says Table 1. I keep the forecast tied to the canonical JTSHIR first-print target and use BLS table evidence only as support.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule for the June 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS schedule lists June 2026 JOLTS for release on Aug. 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM; adjacent listed releases are May 2026 on Jun. 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM and July 2026 on Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the latest BLS JOLTS Table 2 for the seasonally adjusted Total hires rate and level.
↳ BLS Table 2 Total row shows hires levels of 5,328 thousand in May 2025, 4,899 in Feb. 2026, 5,535 in Mar. 2026, 5,215 in Apr. 2026, and 5,170 in May 2026; corresponding Total hires rates are 3.4, 3.1, 3.5, 3.3, and 3.3 percent, with Apr.-May rate change 0.0.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS chart table for total nonfarm hires and separations rates, seasonally adjusted, to build the recent reference class.
↳ BLS chart gives hires rates: Jun 2024 3.3, Jul 2024 3.4, Aug 2024 3.3, Sep 2024 3.4, Oct 2024 3.3, Nov 2024 3.3, Dec 2024 3.3, Jan 2025 3.3, Feb 2025 3.3, Mar 2025 3.4, Apr 2025 3.4, May 2025 3.4, Jun 2025 3.4, Jul 2025 3.3, Aug 2025 3.2, Sep 2025 3.3, Oct 2025 3.3, Nov 2025 3.2, Dec 2025 3.3, Jan 2026 3.4, Feb 2026 3.1, Mar 2026 3.5, Apr 2026 3.3, May 2026 3.3 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked FRED/ALFRED mirror metadata for JTSHIR as a cross-check and ledger-bound resolver series.
↳ FRED/ALFRED JTSHIR reports May 2026 3.3, Apr 2026 3.3, Mar 2026 3.5, Feb 2026 3.1, Jan 2026 3.4; units are Rate, seasonally adjusted, monthly, and FRED lists next release date Aug. 4, 2026.

Base rate/reference class: over the BLS Jun 2024-May 2026 recent expansion/cooling sample, the rate mostly sits from 3.2 to 3.4 percent, with only Feb 2026 at 3.1 and Mar 2026 at 3.5 breaking that tight range. That makes persistence around 3.3 the outside-view prior.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior model uses latest official May 2026 value 3.30 percent; historical sample is the 23 successive monthly changes from the BLS Jun 2024-May 2026 hires-rate series. Level effect 0.00 because May and Apr are both 3.3; momentum effect 0.00 after the Feb-Mar-Apr-May swings net back to 3.3; one-off/policy-mechanism effect 0.00 because this is a labor-turnover rate with no release-specific policy reset. Successive-change sum of squares is 0.41, sample sigma = sqrt(0.41/22) = 0.14 percentage point, so 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.14 = 0.18. Final bounds are 3.30 - 0.18 = 3.12 and 3.30 + 0.18 = 3.48.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a rebound in gross hiring similar to Mar 2026 that would land above the interval at about 3.5 percent or higher; downside risk is a broad hiring freeze like Feb 2026 that would land below the interval near 3.1 percent or lower. The outside the interval cases are plausible but need a much sharper monthly move than the May/April stability implies.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by moving the resolver fields to the canonical ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR first-print binding and explicitly noting the BLS Table 1/Table 2 discrepancy; kept the point estimate, interval, historical anchors, and BLS evidence as supporting pre-resolution public evidence.

Key drivers

  • May first print held at 3.3 percent
  • Recent two-month stabilization after March volatility
  • 2024-2026 reference class centered near 3.3-3.4 percent
  • JOLTS hires levels little changed in latest release
  • Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm JTSHIR variant only

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED original-vintage JTSHIR mirror of the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey first print
Resolved
August 4, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to source series JTSHIR under the ledger's ALFRED/FRED first-print policy for observation 2026-06: use the original vintage first published in the Aug. 4, 2026 release window, in percent and with factor 1. Ignore later ALFRED/FRED vintages, BLS revisions, or annual updates.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly coherent, but it conflicts with the canonical resolver/source binding for the target.

  • blocking resolver: The draft resolves against BLS Table 2 at bls.gov, while the ledger contract binds this target to ALFRED/FRED adapter `alfred-fred`, allowed host `alfred.stlouisfed.org`, source series `JTSHIR`, first-print policy, and the Aug. 4, 2026 release window.
  • info optional_suggestion: Keep the BLS Table 2 discussion as supporting evidence only, not as the resolver, if the published target is ALFRED first-print JTSHIR.
  • info optional_suggestion: The interval and prior/update math are clear; no change needed there unless resolver wording changes the cited table context.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by moving the resolver fields to the canonical ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR first-print binding and explicitly noting the BLS Table 1/Table 2 discrepancy; kept the point estimate, interval, historical anchors, and BLS evidence as supporting pre-resolution public evidence.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by moving the resolver fields to the canonical ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR first-print binding and explicitly noting the BLS Table 1/Table 2 discrepancy; kept the point estimate, interval, historical anchors, and BLS evidence as supporting pre-resolution public evidence.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by moving the resolver fields to the canonical ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR first-print binding and explicitly noting the BLS Table 1/Table 2 discrepancy; kept the point estimate, interval, historical anchors, and BLS evidence as supporting pre-resolution public evidence.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for June 2026 BLS JOLTS hires rate

Framing: this is the BLS JOLTS Total nonfarm hires rate, seasonally adjusted, for June 2026, first print, tied to ledger source series JTSHIR. The ledger binding names the JOLTS news release table and the ALFRED/FRED first-print adapter; the BLS support table inspected for the current release is Table 2, while the registered resolver text says Table 1. I keep the forecast tied to the canonical JTSHIR first-print target and use BLS table evidence only as support.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule for the June 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS schedule lists June 2026 JOLTS for release on Aug. 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM; adjacent listed releases are May 2026 on Jun. 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM and July 2026 on Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the latest BLS JOLTS Table 2 for the seasonally adjusted Total hires rate and level.
↳ BLS Table 2 Total row shows hires levels of 5,328 thousand in May 2025, 4,899 in Feb. 2026, 5,535 in Mar. 2026, 5,215 in Apr. 2026, and 5,170 in May 2026; corresponding Total hires rates are 3.4, 3.1, 3.5, 3.3, and 3.3 percent, with Apr.-May rate change 0.0.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS chart table for total nonfarm hires and separations rates, seasonally adjusted, to build the recent reference class.
↳ BLS chart gives hires rates: Jun 2024 3.3, Jul 2024 3.4, Aug 2024 3.3, Sep 2024 3.4, Oct 2024 3.3, Nov 2024 3.3, Dec 2024 3.3, Jan 2025 3.3, Feb 2025 3.3, Mar 2025 3.4, Apr 2025 3.4, May 2025 3.4, Jun 2025 3.4, Jul 2025 3.3, Aug 2025 3.2, Sep 2025 3.3, Oct 2025 3.3, Nov 2025 3.2, Dec 2025 3.3, Jan 2026 3.4, Feb 2026 3.1, Mar 2026 3.5, Apr 2026 3.3, May 2026 3.3 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked FRED/ALFRED mirror metadata for JTSHIR as a cross-check and ledger-bound resolver series.
↳ FRED/ALFRED JTSHIR reports May 2026 3.3, Apr 2026 3.3, Mar 2026 3.5, Feb 2026 3.1, Jan 2026 3.4; units are Rate, seasonally adjusted, monthly, and FRED lists next release date Aug. 4, 2026.

Base rate/reference class: over the BLS Jun 2024-May 2026 recent expansion/cooling sample, the rate mostly sits from 3.2 to 3.4 percent, with only Feb 2026 at 3.1 and Mar 2026 at 3.5 breaking that tight range. That makes persistence around 3.3 the outside-view prior.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior model uses latest official May 2026 value 3.30 percent; historical sample is the 23 successive monthly changes from the BLS Jun 2024-May 2026 hires-rate series. Level effect 0.00 because May and Apr are both 3.3; momentum effect 0.00 after the Feb-Mar-Apr-May swings net back to 3.3; one-off/policy-mechanism effect 0.00 because this is a labor-turnover rate with no release-specific policy reset. Successive-change sum of squares is 0.41, sample sigma = sqrt(0.41/22) = 0.14 percentage point, so 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.14 = 0.18. Final bounds are 3.30 - 0.18 = 3.12 and 3.30 + 0.18 = 3.48.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a rebound in gross hiring similar to Mar 2026 that would land above the interval at about 3.5 percent or higher; downside risk is a broad hiring freeze like Feb 2026 that would land below the interval near 3.1 percent or lower. The outside the interval cases are plausible but need a much sharper monthly move than the May/April stability implies.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by moving the resolver fields to the canonical ALFRED/FRED JTSHIR first-print binding and explicitly noting the BLS Table 1/Table 2 discrepancy; kept the point estimate, interval, historical anchors, and BLS evidence as supporting pre-resolution public evidence.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
3.3%[3.12% · 3.48%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.jolts.hires_rate.2026_06.first_print

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