thesisPrototype

Government data

US JOLTS Job Openings, August 2026

What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics first report for seasonally adjusted total nonfarm job openings in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August 2026, in millions?

Overdue · was due Oct 5, 2026

This target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding, and a registration cannot be changed. The resolver will not substitute a different route to the number.

REGISTERED_WITHOUT_EXECUTOR · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

7.1M
6.5M–7.8M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%5.5M7.1M8.7MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.5M–7.8M). Dashed line: point estimate (7.1M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US JOLTS job openings for August 2026

Resolver framing: this is BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted Total job openings, levels in thousands converted to millions. The official BLS JOLTS release schedule fetched this run lists August 2026 for September 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM, while the registered ledger target supplied here binds the cell to the window end 2026-10-05 and source URL https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm; I preserve the registered target fields and state the calendar discrepancy explicitly.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS JOLTS release schedule lookup for reference month August 2026
↳ Fetched official schedule: July 2026 JOLTS release date Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM; August 2026 JOLTS release date Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM; September 2026 release date Nov. 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current JOLTS summary and Table 1 for June 2026
↳ Fetched June 2026 release: total job openings 7.4 million in text; Table 1 Total levels were June 2025 7,204 thousand, March 2026 6,887 thousand, April 2026 7,585 thousand, May 2026 7,537 thousand, June 2026 7,359 thousand; June change from May was -178 thousand and the openings rate was 4.4 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived JOLTS release for February 2026
↳ Fetched February 2026 archive: Total job openings were 7,240 thousand in January 2026 and 6,882 thousand in February 2026; hires were 5,347 thousand in January and 4,849 thousand in February.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived JOLTS release for March 2026
↳ Fetched March 2026 archive: Total job openings were 6,922 thousand in February 2026 and 6,866 thousand in March 2026 first print; Table A also showed March 2025 at 6,952 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Employment Situation for July 2026 as labor-market context
↳ Fetched July 2026 Employment Situation: nonfarm payroll employment was -23,000; unemployment rate was 4.1 percent; May payrolls were revised to +63,000 and June to +20,000, a combined 103,000 lower than previously reported.

Base rate/reference class: for a two-month-ahead forecast of a level series, the strongest outside-view prior is persistence around the latest official JOLTS level. The recent official reference class is January-June 2026 total job openings around 6.9-7.6 million, with a current value of 7.359 million and no evidence of a large layoff shock.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior starts at June 2026 current-vintage 7.359 million. Updates are -0.18 million for the June down move continuing, -0.12 million for weak July payrolls and downward revisions, +0.04 million because openings are noisy and layoffs remain contained, giving 7.359 - 0.18 - 0.12 + 0.04 = 7.099, rounded to 7.10 million. Historical sample uses successive changes in current/official 2026 levels: Jan 7.240, Feb 6.882, Mar 6.887, Apr 7.585, May 7.537, Jun 7.359 million, so changes are -0.358, +0.005, +0.698, -0.048, -0.178 and sigma = 0.40 million. The one-month 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.40 = 0.51 million; I widen to 0.65 million for the two-month horizon to August because one additional unobserved month and first-print volatility add risk, giving 7.10 +/- 0.65 = [6.45, 7.75].

Upside risk: a rebound in professional services, retail, or transportation postings after June's drop would land above the interval if openings print above 7.75 million. Downside risk: the July payroll contraction and weak revisions could mark a sharper employer retrenchment, and an August openings fall below 6.45 million would land outside the interval on the low side.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

Key drivers

  • June openings fell 178,000 to 7.359 million
  • July payroll employment was -23,000 with unemployment at 4.1 percent
  • Recent openings remain volatile around 7.0-7.6 million
  • Low-hire low-fire labor market argues for drift lower rather than collapse

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey first-print release
Resolution date
October 5, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey release for August 2026, seasonally adjusted Total job openings level. Use the level in thousands multiplied by 0.001 to report millions, rounded to three decimals if needed. Do not use later revisions or corrected subsequent releases unless BLS replaces the first-print page before ordinary revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is substantively well-formed, but publication should block until the resolver fields align with the registered ledger target contract or the ledger discrepancy is handled explicitly without changing the target fields.

  • blocking resolver: The draft uses resolutionDate 2026-09-29 and resolutionSourceUrl jolts.t01.htm, while the registered target contract supplied for review binds the target to the ledger registration/sourceBinding with window end 2026-10-05 and sourceUrl https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm.
  • warning coherence: The reasoning says the ledger window ends 2026-10-05 but the JSON uses 2026-09-29, creating ambiguity about whether this is a release-calendar target or a resolve-by-bound registered target.
  • info optional_suggestion: The prior/update/interval step is compact and names the persistence prior, sample, adjustments, sigma method, and bounds.
  • info optional_suggestion: Tail scenarios are concrete enough; adding one sentence on why two-month widening from 0.51 to 0.65 is calibrated would strengthen the interval rationale.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US JOLTS job openings for August 2026

Resolver framing: this is BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted Total job openings, levels in thousands converted to millions. The official BLS JOLTS release schedule fetched this run lists August 2026 for September 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM, while the registered ledger target supplied here binds the cell to the window end 2026-10-05 and source URL https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm; I preserve the registered target fields and state the calendar discrepancy explicitly.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS JOLTS release schedule lookup for reference month August 2026
↳ Fetched official schedule: July 2026 JOLTS release date Sep. 01, 2026 at 10:00 AM; August 2026 JOLTS release date Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM; September 2026 release date Nov. 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current JOLTS summary and Table 1 for June 2026
↳ Fetched June 2026 release: total job openings 7.4 million in text; Table 1 Total levels were June 2025 7,204 thousand, March 2026 6,887 thousand, April 2026 7,585 thousand, May 2026 7,537 thousand, June 2026 7,359 thousand; June change from May was -178 thousand and the openings rate was 4.4 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived JOLTS release for February 2026
↳ Fetched February 2026 archive: Total job openings were 7,240 thousand in January 2026 and 6,882 thousand in February 2026; hires were 5,347 thousand in January and 4,849 thousand in February.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived JOLTS release for March 2026
↳ Fetched March 2026 archive: Total job openings were 6,922 thousand in February 2026 and 6,866 thousand in March 2026 first print; Table A also showed March 2025 at 6,952 thousand.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Employment Situation for July 2026 as labor-market context
↳ Fetched July 2026 Employment Situation: nonfarm payroll employment was -23,000; unemployment rate was 4.1 percent; May payrolls were revised to +63,000 and June to +20,000, a combined 103,000 lower than previously reported.

Base rate/reference class: for a two-month-ahead forecast of a level series, the strongest outside-view prior is persistence around the latest official JOLTS level. The recent official reference class is January-June 2026 total job openings around 6.9-7.6 million, with a current value of 7.359 million and no evidence of a large layoff shock.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior starts at June 2026 current-vintage 7.359 million. Updates are -0.18 million for the June down move continuing, -0.12 million for weak July payrolls and downward revisions, +0.04 million because openings are noisy and layoffs remain contained, giving 7.359 - 0.18 - 0.12 + 0.04 = 7.099, rounded to 7.10 million. Historical sample uses successive changes in current/official 2026 levels: Jan 7.240, Feb 6.882, Mar 6.887, Apr 7.585, May 7.537, Jun 7.359 million, so changes are -0.358, +0.005, +0.698, -0.048, -0.178 and sigma = 0.40 million. The one-month 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.40 = 0.51 million; I widen to 0.65 million for the two-month horizon to August because one additional unobserved month and first-print volatility add risk, giving 7.10 +/- 0.65 = [6.45, 7.75].

Upside risk: a rebound in professional services, retail, or transportation postings after June's drop would land above the interval if openings print above 7.75 million. Downside risk: the July payroll contraction and weak revisions could mark a sharper employer retrenchment, and an August openings fall below 6.45 million would land outside the interval on the low side.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by using the registered target contract's resolutionDate/window end and source URL while explicitly noting the official BLS calendar date discrepancy; retained the point forecast and interval because the critique did not identify an evidence or calibration error.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
7.1M[6.5M · 7.8M]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.jolts.job_openings.august_2026.first_print

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