thesisPrototype

Government data

US JOLTS quits rate, Aug. 2026

What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Table 4 seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm quits rate be for August 2026 in the first print?

Overdue · was due Sep 29, 2026

This target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding, and a registration cannot be changed. The resolver will not substitute a different route to the number.

REGISTERED_WITHOUT_EXECUTOR · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

1.9%
1.7%–2.1%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%1.4%1.9%2.4%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (1.7%–2.1%). Dashed line: point estimate (1.9%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast for BLS JOLTS quits rate, August 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is BLS JOLTS Table 4, seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm quits rate, series JTSQUR in FRED mirror terms, for August 2026. The resolver is the BLS first print on the Table 4 release page, not FRED, not Total private, and not the not-seasonally-adjusted Table 11 variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule page for the August 2026 reference month.
↳ The BLS schedule lists August 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM, with July 2026 on Sep. 1, 2026 and September 2026 on Nov. 3, 2026; Sep. 29, 2026 is within the registered expected release window of Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current BLS JOLTS Table 4, seasonally adjusted quits levels and rates by industry and region.
↳ For Total, BLS Table 4 shows quits rates of 2.1 in June 2025, 2.0 in March 2026, 1.9 in April 2026, 2.0 in May 2026, and 2.0 in June 2026; levels were 3,254 thousand, 3,160 thousand, 3,043 thousand, 3,153 thousand, and 3,232 thousand respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the BLS JOLTS June 2026 summary for broader turnover conditions.
↳ The June 2026 JOLTS summary reported job openings at 7.4 million, hires at 5.3 million, total separations at 5.4 million, quits at 3.2 million, and the quits rate at 2.0 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the BLS Employment Situation for July 2026 as a contemporaneous labor-market signal before the August JOLTS period.
↳ The July 2026 Employment Situation reported nonfarm payroll employment of -23,000, unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, May and June payroll revisions totaling -103,000, labor-force participation at 61.4 percent, and average hourly earnings up 3.2 percent over the year.

Reference class and base rate: for a low-volatility rate series like Total nonfarm quits, the strongest base rate is persistence around the latest official BLS Table 4 level. The recent official reference class averages about 2.0 percent across June 2025 and March-June 2026, with the sequential 2026 observations centered just under 2.0.

Prior/update/interval: persistence model prior = latest official June 2026 rate of 2.0 percent, historical sample = BLS Table 4 seasonally adjusted Total rates for March-June 2026 of 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0; adjustment components = -0.05 for weaker July payrolls and downward revisions, -0.02 for lower participation/worker-confidence pressure, +0.02 for still-stable JOLTS openings and hires, rounded to a -0.1 point net forecast adjustment over July-August; interval method = sample sigma of monthly changes from March-June changes (-0.1, +0.1, 0.0) is sigma = 0.10 for one month, two-month sigma = sqrt(2)*0.10 = 0.14, 80 percent half-width = 1.28*0.14 = 0.18, rounded to 0.2; final implied bounds are 1.9 - 0.2 = 1.7 and 1.9 + 0.2 = 2.1.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from a July or August rebound in labor demand that lifts quits back above 2.1, especially in leisure, retail, or professional services. Downside risk would come from a clearer labor-market break after the -23,000 July payroll print; a broad pullback in voluntary separations would land below the interval if the first-print rate is under 1.7.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by stating that the verified Sep. 29, 2026 release date falls within the registered Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026 expected window; kept the small rounded -0.1 inside-view adjustment because it remains directionally grounded and internally coherent.

Key drivers

  • Recent BLS Table 4 Total nonfarm quits rate is stable around 2.0 percent
  • July payroll employment weakness lowers worker-confidence and voluntary-quit pressure
  • June JOLTS openings and hires were little changed, arguing against a sharp break
  • Resolution is the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm rate, not the Total private or not seasonally adjusted variant

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Table 4
Resolution date
September 29, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first BLS-published seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm quits rate in JOLTS Table 4 for August 2026, reported as a percent and rounded as BLS publishes it. Use the first print only; ignore later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with no blocking issues; resolver, prior/update/interval logic, tails, and JSON fields are coherent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider making the resolution-date note explicitly say Sep. 29, 2026 is within the registered expected release window of Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026.
  • info optional_suggestion: The inside-view adjustment is directionally plausible but small; keeping it rounded to -0.1 is acceptable.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by stating that the verified Sep. 29, 2026 release date falls within the registered Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026 expected window; kept the small rounded -0.1 inside-view adjustment because it remains directionally grounded and internally coherent.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by stating that the verified Sep. 29, 2026 release date falls within the registered Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026 expected window; kept the small rounded -0.1 inside-view adjustment because it remains directionally grounded and internally coherent.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for BLS JOLTS quits rate, August 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is BLS JOLTS Table 4, seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm quits rate, series JTSQUR in FRED mirror terms, for August 2026. The resolver is the BLS first print on the Table 4 release page, not FRED, not Total private, and not the not-seasonally-adjusted Table 11 variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS JOLTS release schedule page for the August 2026 reference month.
↳ The BLS schedule lists August 2026 JOLTS for Sep. 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM, with July 2026 on Sep. 1, 2026 and September 2026 on Nov. 3, 2026; Sep. 29, 2026 is within the registered expected release window of Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current BLS JOLTS Table 4, seasonally adjusted quits levels and rates by industry and region.
↳ For Total, BLS Table 4 shows quits rates of 2.1 in June 2025, 2.0 in March 2026, 1.9 in April 2026, 2.0 in May 2026, and 2.0 in June 2026; levels were 3,254 thousand, 3,160 thousand, 3,043 thousand, 3,153 thousand, and 3,232 thousand respectively.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the BLS JOLTS June 2026 summary for broader turnover conditions.
↳ The June 2026 JOLTS summary reported job openings at 7.4 million, hires at 5.3 million, total separations at 5.4 million, quits at 3.2 million, and the quits rate at 2.0 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the BLS Employment Situation for July 2026 as a contemporaneous labor-market signal before the August JOLTS period.
↳ The July 2026 Employment Situation reported nonfarm payroll employment of -23,000, unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, May and June payroll revisions totaling -103,000, labor-force participation at 61.4 percent, and average hourly earnings up 3.2 percent over the year.

Reference class and base rate: for a low-volatility rate series like Total nonfarm quits, the strongest base rate is persistence around the latest official BLS Table 4 level. The recent official reference class averages about 2.0 percent across June 2025 and March-June 2026, with the sequential 2026 observations centered just under 2.0.

Prior/update/interval: persistence model prior = latest official June 2026 rate of 2.0 percent, historical sample = BLS Table 4 seasonally adjusted Total rates for March-June 2026 of 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0; adjustment components = -0.05 for weaker July payrolls and downward revisions, -0.02 for lower participation/worker-confidence pressure, +0.02 for still-stable JOLTS openings and hires, rounded to a -0.1 point net forecast adjustment over July-August; interval method = sample sigma of monthly changes from March-June changes (-0.1, +0.1, 0.0) is sigma = 0.10 for one month, two-month sigma = sqrt(2)*0.10 = 0.14, 80 percent half-width = 1.28*0.14 = 0.18, rounded to 0.2; final implied bounds are 1.9 - 0.2 = 1.7 and 1.9 + 0.2 = 2.1.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from a July or August rebound in labor demand that lifts quits back above 2.1, especially in leisure, retail, or professional services. Downside risk would come from a clearer labor-market break after the -23,000 July payroll print; a broad pullback in voluntary separations would land below the interval if the first-print rate is under 1.7.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by stating that the verified Sep. 29, 2026 release date falls within the registered Sep. 27-Oct. 5, 2026 expected window; kept the small rounded -0.1 inside-view adjustment because it remains directionally grounded and internally coherent.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
1.9%[1.7% · 2.1%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-08.first_print

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