§Forecast for BLS JOLTS quits rate, September 2026 first print
Resolver: BLS JOLTS Table 4, Total quits rate, seasonally adjusted, preliminary September 2026 first print. The registered target contract sets resolutionDate to 2026-11-02; the official BLS JOLTS release calendar fetched this run lists September 2026 for release on 2026-11-03 at 10:00 a.m. ET, so I keep the cell tied to the registered resolutionDate while noting the calendar discrepancy.
Fetched BLS JOLTS release calendar for the target reference month.↳ BLS schedule lists July 2026 release on 2026-09-01, August 2026 release on 2026-09-29, September 2026 release on 2026-11-03, and October 2026 release on 2026-12-01.Fetched BLS archived JOLTS Table 4 first-print releases for January through March 2026.↳ First-print seasonally adjusted Total quits rates from BLS Table 4: January 2026 = 2.0 percent with 3,137 thousand quits; February 2026 = 1.9 percent with 2,974 thousand quits; March 2026 = 2.0 percent with 3,171 thousand quits.Fetched BLS archived JOLTS Table 4 first-print releases for April through July 2026.↳ First-print seasonally adjusted Total quits rates from BLS Table 4: April 2026 = 1.9 percent with 2,977 thousand quits; May 2026 = 1.9 percent with 3,065 thousand quits; June 2026 = 2.0 percent with 3,232 thousand quits; July 2026 = 1.9 percent with 3,056 thousand quits.Fetched current BLS JOLTS Table 4 and summary for same-variant context.↳ Current BLS July 2026 Table 4 shows Total quits rate = 1.9 percent, Total quits level = 3,056 thousand, June 2026 revised quits rate = 2.0 percent, and July quits changed by -157 thousand from June.The reference class is same-variant BLS JOLTS Table 4 Total quits rate, seasonally adjusted, first print. Base rate anchor: the seven fetched first prints since January 2026 are 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 1.9, 1.9, 2.0, and 1.9 percent, giving a mean of 1.943 percent and a median of 1.9 percent.
Level effect favors 1.9 percent because the latest first print was 1.9 and the current revised Table 4 also places July at 1.9. Momentum effect is near zero: the sequence alternates 1.9 and 2.0 with no sustained climb or fall. One-off July industry weakness argues modestly below 2.0, while the policy-mechanism context of low quits as a worker-confidence measure argues against a rapid jump.
Prior/update/interval: persistence prior on the same-variant first-print quits rate uses the January-July 2026 historical sample. Adjustments are level 1.90, momentum 0.00, one-off July weakness -0.02, and mean reversion +0.02, implying point = 1.90 percent. Successive changes are -0.1, +0.1, -0.1, 0.0, +0.1, -0.1; sample sigma = 0.098 percentage point, so 1.28*sigma = 0.125. I use an 80 percent half-width of 0.13, giving 1.90 - 0.13 = 1.77 and 1.90 + 0.13 = 2.03; because the official print is rounded to one decimal, this effectively covers first-print outcomes of 1.8, 1.9, and 2.0 percent.
Counter-considerations: upside risk is a September rebound in voluntary quits from better worker confidence or service-sector churn, which would land above the interval if the first print rounds materially above 2.0 percent. Downside risk is a broader hiring slowdown or weaker labor-market confidence, which would land below the interval if the first print rounds materially below 1.8 percent. The outside the interval cases require a larger-than-recent monthly move.
Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by restoring resolutionDate to the registered 2026-11-02 contract and recording the BLS calendar discrepancy in reasoning; accepted the optional rounded-outcome clarification for the interval.