Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK PAYE Payrolled Employees, June 2026
What will the ONS/HMRC first-print early estimate of UK seasonally adjusted PAYE payrolled employees be for June 2026, in millions?
current forecast · 80% CI30.3M
30.2M30.3M30.3M
history:May 2026 early payrolled employees, millions: 30.3MMay 2026 month change, millions: 0MApril 2026 revised month change, millions: -0.1MMarch 2026 revised month change, millions: -0MMay 2026 annual change, millions: -0.1M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T06:03:13Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 10, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- May level was broadly flat at 30.3 million
- April weakness was revised from -100,000 to -53,000
- Annual growth remained negative at -119,000
- Early tax-year PAYE flashes have elevated revision and imputation uncertainty
- Vacancy and sector signals point to a soft but not collapsing labour market
Resolution
- source
- ONS/HMRC Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK
- expected
- July 21, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official ONS/HMRC print of seasonally adjusted UK PAYE payrolled employees for June 2026, in millions, using the headline payrolled employees series in the Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information bulletin/table. Use the first published estimate only, with no later revisions. The JSON resolutionDate of 2026-07-21 is the expected first-print publication date from the official next-release schedule. The registered ledger URL points to the June 2026 bulletin, which ONS has already used for May 2026 data; this discrepancy is preserved for audit rather than silently changing the target.
- Data point
- ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.