thesisPrototype

Government data

UK PSNB ex Banks, June 2026

ONS Public sector finances series J5II / bulletin -J5II, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, June 2026, current-price not seasonally adjusted, first print

Overdue · was due Jul 21, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

£24.8B
£13.8B–£35.8B
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%£-2.7B£24.8B£52.3BForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (£13.8B–£35.8B). Dashed line: point estimate (£24.8B).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§June 2026 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Forecast

Framing and exact resolver: the target is ONS public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks for June 2026, first print, in GBP billions. The ONS time-series page is J5II in GBP millions with the raw accounting sign, while bulletin charts/tables use -J5II so positive numbers indicate a deficit; I forecast the registered borrowing concept in the bulletin convention, positive = borrowing. The ledger URL points to the May 2026 bulletin even though the target month is June 2026; I keep that registered URL, and use its official next-release statement plus the J5II series page to tie the target to the 21 July 2026 first print.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS J5II time-series page for PUSF and read metadata and latest values.
↳ Fetched: release date 19 June 2026, next release 21 July 2026, Series ID J5II, units GBP m, 2026 APR raw J5II -23033 and 2026 MAY raw J5II -23294, which convert to GBP 23.033bn and GBP 23.294bn borrowing under the bulletin -J5II convention.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS Public sector finances, UK: May 2026 bulletin for current-release drivers, forecast comparison, and next-release date.
↳ Fetched: May 2026 borrowing was GBP 23.3bn, GBP 5.4bn more than May 2025 and GBP 5.6bn above the OBR forecast of GBP 17.7bn; central government debt interest payable was GBP 11.7bn; financial-year-to-May borrowing was GBP 46.3bn versus OBR forecast GBP 38.6bn; the bulletin's next-release date was 21 July 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS Public sector finances, UK: June 2025 bulletin for the prior same-month first-print and debt-interest mechanics.
↳ Fetched: June 2025 first-print borrowing was GBP 20.7bn, GBP 6.6bn more than June 2024 and GBP 3.5bn above the OBR forecast of GBP 17.1bn; June 2025 central government debt interest was GBP 16.4bn; capital uplift was GBP 10.9bn reflecting a 1.7% RPI rise between March and April 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS J5II monthly history for June reference class and converted raw J5II signs to positive borrowing.
↳ Fetched current-vintage June converted values, GBP bn: 2013 8.310, 2014 7.930, 2015 7.705, 2016 4.876, 2017 6.458, 2018 4.103, 2019 6.791, 2020 32.165, 2021 18.721, 2022 18.871, 2023 19.085, 2024 14.617, 2025 23.878; the 2025 current-vintage value differs from the June 2025 bulletin first print of GBP 20.7bn because later revisions enter the time-series page.

The reference class base rate is same-month June borrowing. The full 2013-2025 June sample averages about GBP 13.35bn, but the post-2021 regime averages about GBP 19.0bn and the 2025 first print was GBP 20.7bn. Because May 2026 is already GBP 5.6bn above the OBR monthly profile and FY-to-May is GBP 7.7bn above profile, I weight the recent June regime and current-year miss more heavily than the long pre-pandemic base rate.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = June 2025 first print GBP 20.7bn and 2021-2025 June reference-class mean about GBP 19.0bn; adjustments = +GBP 3.0bn for the current FY-to-May overshoot and higher May run rate, +GBP 1.1bn for June debt-interest and spending risk after May debt interest of GBP 11.7bn, giving point GBP 24.8bn. Interval method uses the 2013-2025 June converted values themselves because this is a monthly flow series: sample sigma = 8.6, so 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.6 = 11.0. Final implied bounds are 24.8 - 11.0 = 13.8 and 24.8 + 11.0 = 35.8.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from another large index-linked gilt capital-uplift month, weaker PAYE/VAT/corporation tax receipts, or local-government/public-corporation estimates adding to central-government borrowing; a repeat of June 2020-style stress would land above the interval. Downside risk would come from a sharp fall in RPI-linked debt interest, stronger accrued receipts, or unusually low net investment; a clean reversal toward the 2016-2019 June range would land below the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fixes by making the 21 July 2026 next-release grounding explicit in the May 2026 ONS lookup and by clarifying that the June 2025 first print and current revised J5II time-series value differ because of revisions; no required critique items were raised.

Key drivers

  • May 2026 borrowing was already elevated at GBP 23.3bn versus an OBR forecast of GBP 17.7bn
  • Financial year to May 2026 borrowing was GBP 46.3bn, GBP 7.7bn above OBR forecast
  • June is exposed to volatile index-linked gilt debt-interest accruals
  • Recent June reference class has shifted higher than the pre-pandemic norm
  • Receipts growth partly offsets higher debt interest, benefits, and departmental spending

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Office for National Statistics Public sector finances, UK
Resolution date
July 21, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve on the first ONS print for June 2026 public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks. Use the Public sector finances June 2026 bulletin/table value for code -J5II, or equivalently convert raw J5II time-series £m to £ billions with the bulletin borrowing sign convention, where positive means borrowing/deficit. Do not use later revisions, superseded versions, or same-day corrections unless the first-print bulletin itself is replaced before release publication is complete.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with no blocking issues; it identifies the registered resolver discrepancy, states a same-month/persistence prior, justifies the upward adjustment, and keeps point/interval/JSON fields coherent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Add the exact ONS next-release wording or release-calendar citation beside the 2026-07-21 resolution date if available.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify in one phrase that the 2025 value differs between first print and current revised time-series, since both appear in the reasoning.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fixes by making the 21 July 2026 next-release grounding explicit in the May 2026 ONS lookup and by clarifying that the June 2025 first print and current revised J5II time-series value differ because of revisions; no required critique items were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fixes by making the 21 July 2026 next-release grounding explicit in the May 2026 ONS lookup and by clarifying that the June 2025 first print and current revised J5II time-series value differ because of revisions; no required critique items were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§June 2026 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Forecast

Framing and exact resolver: the target is ONS public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks for June 2026, first print, in GBP billions. The ONS time-series page is J5II in GBP millions with the raw accounting sign, while bulletin charts/tables use -J5II so positive numbers indicate a deficit; I forecast the registered borrowing concept in the bulletin convention, positive = borrowing. The ledger URL points to the May 2026 bulletin even though the target month is June 2026; I keep that registered URL, and use its official next-release statement plus the J5II series page to tie the target to the 21 July 2026 first print.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS J5II time-series page for PUSF and read metadata and latest values.
↳ Fetched: release date 19 June 2026, next release 21 July 2026, Series ID J5II, units GBP m, 2026 APR raw J5II -23033 and 2026 MAY raw J5II -23294, which convert to GBP 23.033bn and GBP 23.294bn borrowing under the bulletin -J5II convention.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS Public sector finances, UK: May 2026 bulletin for current-release drivers, forecast comparison, and next-release date.
↳ Fetched: May 2026 borrowing was GBP 23.3bn, GBP 5.4bn more than May 2025 and GBP 5.6bn above the OBR forecast of GBP 17.7bn; central government debt interest payable was GBP 11.7bn; financial-year-to-May borrowing was GBP 46.3bn versus OBR forecast GBP 38.6bn; the bulletin's next-release date was 21 July 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened ONS Public sector finances, UK: June 2025 bulletin for the prior same-month first-print and debt-interest mechanics.
↳ Fetched: June 2025 first-print borrowing was GBP 20.7bn, GBP 6.6bn more than June 2024 and GBP 3.5bn above the OBR forecast of GBP 17.1bn; June 2025 central government debt interest was GBP 16.4bn; capital uplift was GBP 10.9bn reflecting a 1.7% RPI rise between March and April 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS J5II monthly history for June reference class and converted raw J5II signs to positive borrowing.
↳ Fetched current-vintage June converted values, GBP bn: 2013 8.310, 2014 7.930, 2015 7.705, 2016 4.876, 2017 6.458, 2018 4.103, 2019 6.791, 2020 32.165, 2021 18.721, 2022 18.871, 2023 19.085, 2024 14.617, 2025 23.878; the 2025 current-vintage value differs from the June 2025 bulletin first print of GBP 20.7bn because later revisions enter the time-series page.

The reference class base rate is same-month June borrowing. The full 2013-2025 June sample averages about GBP 13.35bn, but the post-2021 regime averages about GBP 19.0bn and the 2025 first print was GBP 20.7bn. Because May 2026 is already GBP 5.6bn above the OBR monthly profile and FY-to-May is GBP 7.7bn above profile, I weight the recent June regime and current-year miss more heavily than the long pre-pandemic base rate.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = June 2025 first print GBP 20.7bn and 2021-2025 June reference-class mean about GBP 19.0bn; adjustments = +GBP 3.0bn for the current FY-to-May overshoot and higher May run rate, +GBP 1.1bn for June debt-interest and spending risk after May debt interest of GBP 11.7bn, giving point GBP 24.8bn. Interval method uses the 2013-2025 June converted values themselves because this is a monthly flow series: sample sigma = 8.6, so 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.6 = 11.0. Final implied bounds are 24.8 - 11.0 = 13.8 and 24.8 + 11.0 = 35.8.

Counter-considerations: upside risk would come from another large index-linked gilt capital-uplift month, weaker PAYE/VAT/corporation tax receipts, or local-government/public-corporation estimates adding to central-government borrowing; a repeat of June 2020-style stress would land above the interval. Downside risk would come from a sharp fall in RPI-linked debt interest, stronger accrued receipts, or unusually low net investment; a clean reversal toward the 2016-2019 June range would land below the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarity fixes by making the 21 July 2026 next-release grounding explicit in the May 2026 ONS lookup and by clarifying that the June 2025 first print and current revised J5II time-series value differ because of revisions; no required critique items were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
£24.8B[£13.8B · £35.8B]
Target metadata

Data point: ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.june_2026.first_print

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