BLS employment projections baseline

Purpose

Use the official BLS 2024-2034 occupational employment projections as an outside-view prior for OEWS occupation forecasts.

Mechanism

• Map the OEWS SOC major group target to the matching BLS Employment Projections occupation row.
• Translate the decade projection direction into a modest near-term adjustment around the no-pack OEWS forecast.
• Keep the May 2026 OEWS first-published national occupation table as the resolution surface.

Checks

• The trace names the Employment Projections release and table used by the run.
• The signed pack adjustment is shown separately from the no-pack control forecast.
• The projection source is not used as the resolver for the OEWS target.

Inputs

• BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034 Summary
• BLS Employment Projections Table 1.2 occupational projections and worker characteristics
• BLS OEWS national occupational employment target

Limitations

• The projection is a 10-year BLS baseline, not an annual path to the May 2026 OEWS release.
• Major-group mappings can hide within-group variation in automation exposure.
• Projection vintages can lag shocks that affect the near-term OEWS first print.

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