Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Healthcare support occupation employment, May 2026

How many people will BLS first publish as employed in SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the May 2026 national OEWS release?

current forecast · 80% CI7.42m

7.05m7.42m7.8m

history:2023 est.: 6.9m2024 est.: 7.1m2025 est.: 7.25m

Trend

history + forecast

historyforecast path80% interval

Occupation automation exposure source synthesis · 2026-06-17T14:25:00-04:00

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →

record: June 17, 2026
agent: Occupation automation exposure source synthesis
distribution: 3 runs · 201 CDF points each
model: Codex recorded source-context synthesis
ledger fact: bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print

Forecast runs

same target · agents, packs, updates

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BLS employment projections baseline

data

Adds BLS 2024-2034 occupational employment projections as a long-run baseline for OEWS occupation forecasts.

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version: 0.1.0
pack id: bls-employment-projections-baseline
pack set: BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline
agents: brier-occupation-projection
used by: BLS projections pack

BLS-implied 2026 baseline

BLS Employment ProjectionsBLS 2024-2034 projection release, OEWS-compatible interpolationAug 28, 2025

Derived near-term annual baseline: apply BLS 2024-2034 projected growth rate to the latest OEWS level.

unreported

6.99mpoint 7.34m7.92m

public trace

BLS-implied annual comparator

BLS does not publish an official May 2026 OEWS forecast. This baseline keeps the annual OEWS resolver but uses the BLS 2024-2034 major-group growth rate as the outside-view annual path.

bls.employment_projections.lookup bls.employment_projections.lookup({ table: "1.2", window: "2024-2034", occupation: "31-0000" })

result { employment_2024_thousands: 7982.8, projected_2034_thousands: 8971.1, projected_growth_percent: +12.4, annualized_growth_percent: +1.2 }

Latest OEWS context 7.25m * (1 + 1.2%) = 7.34m; delta versus Brier no-pack -80k.

forecast 7.34m · point

7.34m

-80k

Occupation synthesis - no projection pack

Occupation automation exposure source synthesisCodex recorded source-context synthesisJun 17, 2026

Control run with OEWS history and task-automation context, before adding BLS Employment Projections as a prior.

Occupation automation control

6.99m80% 7.05m to 7.8m7.92m

public trace

Recorded agent run · May 2026 OEWS first print

Healthcare support is a useful low-substitution benchmark: care work is labor intensive, demand is demographically strong, and AI effects mostly run through documentation and scheduling. This target resolves on 2027-05-14 under a first-print rule, with an expected ~12 months lag. The same series can also spawn next annual release, +12 months, threshold questions.

bls.oews.lookup bls.oews.lookup({ table: "national", occupation: "31-0000", releases: ["May 2023", "May 2024", "May 2025"] })

result Rounded national OEWS employment in thousands from source-context synthesis; replace with exact BLS table extraction once the OEWS download integration is wired into the ledger.

bls.oews.source bls.oews.source({ release: "May 2026", geography: "national", occupation: "31-0000" })

result Target registered in the Thesis ledger before forecasting; resolution uses the first-published BLS national OEWS occupation employment table.

automation_exposure.map automation_exposure.map({ soc_major_group: "31-0000", lens: "task_automation_literature" })

result { exposure: 'low_substitution', complementarity: 'documentation_and_triage', demographic_pressure: 'high' }

This group should keep expanding because demand for aides, assistants, and support staff is tied to care volume rather than information processing alone. The main downside risk is provider margin pressure and staffing shortages, not AI task substitution.

forecast 7.42m · 80% [7.05m, 7.8m]

7.42m

baseline

BLS projections pack

brier-occupation-projectionCodex recorded source-context synthesisJun 17, 2026

Pack-enabled run using BLS 2024-2034 occupational projections as a long-run prior.

BLS 2024-2034 projections baseline

6.99m80% 7.12m to 7.86m7.92m

public trace

BLS Employment Projections pack

This run treats BLS Employment Projections as an outside-view prior, not as the resolver. The target still resolves against the first-published May 2026 OEWS national occupation employment table.

bls.employment_projections.lookup bls.employment_projections.lookup({ table: "1.2", window: "2024-2034", target: "bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print" })

result { bls_projection_window: '2024-2034', occupation_group: '31-0000', long_run_signal: 'demographic healthcare demand', pack_adjustment_thousands: +60 }

brier.pack.apply brier.pack.apply({ packs: ["bls-employment-projections-baseline@0.1.0"], role: "outside_view_prior" })

result { admitted: 1, mode: 'with_packs', control_point_thousands: 7420, pack_adjustment_thousands: +60, packed_point_thousands: 7480, resolver_unchanged: 'BLS OEWS first print' }

Control forecast 7.42m + BLS projections pack adjustment +60k = 7.48m.

The BLS projection prior pushes healthcare support higher because long-run care demand is a strong outside-view anchor and near-term AI substitution is limited.

forecast 7.48m · 80% [7.12m, 7.86m]

7.48m

+60k

Key drivers

Aging-driven care demand
Hospital and long-term-care staffing
Medicaid and Medicare utilization
Limited near-term physical-task automation

Resolution

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
expected: May 14, 2027
rule: Resolves to the first-published national OEWS employment estimate for SOC 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations in the BLS May 2026 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates table, divided by 1,000 and rounded to the nearest thousand workers. Later revisions or table corrections do not change the resolved value unless BLS replaces the first table on the same publication date.
Data point: bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000.may_2026.first_print

Series design

series: bls.oews.national_occupation_employment.soc_31_0000
cadence: annual · ~12 months
horizon: May 2026 OEWS first print · first print
priority: P1
benchmark: May 2025 OEWS national table plus payroll, openings, and automation-exposure priors
chainable: next annual release · +12 months · threshold
run: Occupation automation exposure source synthesis · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 17, 2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

recorded agent run

Recorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.

recorded trace replay

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▸ recorded source check: bls.oews.lookuphidden

▸ recorded source check: bls.oews.sourcehidden

▸ recorded source check: automation_exposure.maphidden

This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.

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