Labor-market momentum

Purpose

Combine labor-market signals into a coherent nowcast before the next employment release.

Mechanism

• Start from recent payroll, unemployment, and participation prints.
• Cross-check the signal against claims and job-openings momentum.
• Flag contradictions between establishment, household, and claims data.

Checks

• The run names at least two labor-market surfaces beyond the target series.
• The trace explains whether the cross-check raises or lowers the center.
• The interval reflects first-print labor-market volatility.

Inputs

• BLS CES and CPS history
• Initial claims and JOLTS signals
• Recent first-print resolution facts

Limitations

• Does not estimate sector-level payroll detail yet.
• Can understate turning points when all labor indicators lag together.

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