Unemployment rate, June 2026 (first print)

Computed month-over-month change in the rounded rate over the last 24 months: population stdev = 0.107 percentage points; nearly all monthly moves are within +/-0.2pp. An 80% interval is therefore roughly point +/- 0.13pp, which after rounding to the published 0.1 grid maps to ~[4.1, 4.5].

No trend to extrapolate: the level has been flat at 4.3% with tiny oscillation 4.3<->4.4. Persistence is the dominant signal; best single-value guess = repeat 4.3%.

Base rate over the last 12 months: the modal print is 4.3% (and 4.3-4.4 covers almost every month). Unconditionally, P(June = 4.3) is the highest single-bin probability; 4.2 and 4.4 are the next most likely.

Outside [4.1, 4.5] if: a sudden oil-shock-driven layoff surge or a participation jump pushes U-3 to 4.6%+, or a tightening/participation drop prints 4.0%. Both are tail events for a one-month rounded rate given the recent 0.1pp typical move.

Persistence + tiny volatility -> point 4.3%. 80% CI spans one rounding step either side plus a margin: [4.1, 4.5].

The rate has clustered at 4.3 percent, so the control repeats the modal value but keeps a wider interval for household-survey noise.

Payrolls and claims do not justify moving away from 4.3 percent, but the pack tightens the tails around one rounded tick on either side.

The target is the first-print, seasonally adjusted CPS unemployment rate for June 2026, not a later revised value. The official BLS Employment Situation release is the resolver.

Base-rate/reference-class step: one-month changes in the rounded unemployment rate are usually small, and the last five official monthly prints have stayed in a 4.3 to 4.4 range, with four of five at 4.3.

Counter-consideration: household-survey noise can move the rounded unemployment rate by 0.1 or 0.2 points even when payroll growth is solid, and long-term unemployment near 2.0 million leaves some upside risk.

Average of Jan-May rounded rates is (4.3 + 4.4 + 4.3 + 4.3 + 4.3) / 5 = 4.32, rounded to a 4.3 percent point forecast. I set the 80 percent interval at 4.1 to 4.6 to allow roughly minus 0.2 to plus 0.3 points around the recent 4.3 percent center, with slightly more upside due to household-survey volatility.

The resolver is the first official BLS Employment Situation print for June 2026, using the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate for people age 16 and over, rounded to one decimal percent.

Base-rate/reference class: one-month moves in the rounded unemployment rate are usually small, and the immediate recent reference class is especially persistent: five latest monthly values are all between 4.3 and 4.4, with four of five at 4.3.

The main upside risk is that the household survey can be noisy and BLS says the unemployment-rate monthly-change confidence interval is about plus or minus 0.3 percentage point near a 6.0 percent rate; a softer June household survey could round to 4.4 or 4.5 even if payrolls remain positive.

The main downside risk is continued strong labor demand: May payrolls rose 172,000, participation was steady at 61.8 percent, and the unemployment rate has held at 4.3 despite month-to-month changes in unemployment levels.

Use persistence as the anchor: median of Jan-May rounded rates = 4.3. Apply no drift because May payrolls were strong and participation was flat, but widen the 80 percent interval to roughly one BLS household-survey rounded-rate move below and above: 4.1 to 4.6.